Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I just maxed it out on the Celtics. I think we jump out quick and they’re rusty, similar to G1 against the Heat. Or maybe I’m just a degenerate.
No this is another good angle and one I played another pizza prop on just now.

* Double Result: Celtics 1H/Warriors game +500

Warriors shake rust off at the half, they go on their typical 3Q run. I think this occurs more than the +500 indicates.
 

BigSoxFan

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I just maxed it out on the Celtics. I think we jump out quick and they’re rusty, similar to G1 against the Heat. Or maybe I’m just a degenerate.
Could easily be another Game 1 against the Heat type game. I went conservative on the Dubs but I like your approach too.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
383
Good day. Hit over 211, Warriors TT Over, and the C’s ML (bet it due to the confidence thanks to the up by 10 promo).

Only lost a little on Celtics 1H/GSW ML.

let’s ride!
 
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tbb345

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Apr 23, 2010
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Before the game started I made 3 bets….

-Horford Over 23.5 points+rebounds+assists
-Jaylen +830 to win Finals MVP
-Celtics +140 to win the series…

Liking all of these right now!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Made my first Game 2 play at BOL and hoping my locals post numbers before it gets bet down.

* Under 216

Defensive adjustments will continue as we saw how effective Celtics were in switching the PNR in the 2H. I don’t expect Horford, Smart and White to combine for 15-23 three’s either. Words cannot express how strongly I feel about this play……I may look for biggest price on adjusted line too as this game could be in the 90’s. I’ll likely have some Celtics TT Under 105.5 (?) once they are posted too.

Edit: It’s funny how results oriented these totals are. Game 1 figures to always be higher in a series without the defenses seeing what the offenses are running. The number should dip some each game prior to the G7 nosedive. Yet, red hot shooting without a game to adjust pushes this opening number in the direction it shouldn’t be going.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* WARNING! Degen, NBA night off action.

I often speak about higher scoring Game 1’s before the defenses adjust to the offensive sets/movements (which of course is why LOL on Sundays total but I digress)……but this isn’t only true in the NBA playoffs.

Look at the NHL WC series with an 8-6 final in G1 as everyone lost their minds in hammering the Over 7 (-140) in G2 bc it’s easy money right? Wrong. 4-0 final. Over in the EC the G1 number was 5.5 and all the public money was on the Under bc these goalies are god. You should have heard the poker table talk (which is the absolute BEST for fading sports bets btw) debating the final score. 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 LOL…..final was 6-4. I’ll keep my ears open at the tables tonight but from my experiences there won’t be a word said and all those squares who pounded the Under in G1 (which benefits the offense) will not play the Under in G2 (which benefits the defense after adjustments).

* So gimme a whole bunch of Under 5.5 Rangers/Lightning and some Under 1.5 in 1P.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Not a fan of betting hockey usually but had a free bet to use and the U 5.5;seemed like a reasonable place to use it. Thanks!
Boom! Glad I posted it. I added a little U6.5 at +110 after it was 1-1 early 1P so that covered my 1P loss. Also glad you responded about the free bet bc I’ve got a good one from my referral who lost last week that I forgot about
 

Dave Stapleton

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I’ve been. O
Boom! Glad I posted it. I added a little U6.5 at +110 after it was 1-1 early 1P so that covered my 1P loss. Also glad you responded about the free bet bc I’ve got a good one from my referral who lost last week that I forgot about
New to the thread but have had some really good luck all season (and playoffs) with the Cs and alt lines, including the other night.

Saw this one yesterday and agreed so jumped on it as well. Nice work and thanks!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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New to the thread but have had some really good luck all season (and playoffs) with the Cs and alt lines, including the other night.

Saw this one yesterday and agreed so jumped on it as well. Nice work and thanks!
Nice! It’s been many years since we met at the old poker room at MGM. 17?18? Wow time does fly.
 

Dave Stapleton

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Nice! It’s been many years since we met at the old poker room at MGM. 17?18? Wow time does fly.
Crazy isn’t it? I was telling some other SOSHers that I saw in person recently that I still don’t remember how we were able to pull together that poker bash.

It’s crazy but I’ve hit 3 out of my last 4 alt lines at numbers from +270 to 320. I know the experts say it’s a bad bet but I’ve been able to pick my spots.

Also hit a +550 on Cs winning the conference I bet back in March and still have a +1400 working on the championship.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Made my first Game 2 play at BOL and hoping my locals post numbers before it gets bet down.

* Under 216

Defensive adjustments will continue as we saw how effective Celtics were in switching the PNR in the 2H. I don’t expect Horford, Smart and White to combine for 15-23 three’s either. Words cannot express how strongly I feel about this play……I may look for biggest price on adjusted line too as this game could be in the 90’s. I’ll likely have some Celtics TT Under 105.5 (?) once they are posted too.

Edit: It’s funny how results oriented these totals are. Game 1 figures to always be higher in a series without the defenses seeing what the offenses are running. The number should dip some each game prior to the G7 nosedive. Yet, red hot shooting without a game to adjust pushes this opening number in the direction it shouldn’t be going.
Number is at 213.5 at some places, 214.5 at others. Healthy wager on this one. Two other smaller plays….

* Tatum Over 28.5 Points. I expect him to be much more aggressive looking for his offense without, presumable, the entire team on fire.

* Warriors TT Under 209.5 I really expect them to struggle creating consistent offense as they did most of game one.

Another I like but didn’t play is Horford Under 12.5 Points. I stayed away bc if TL is unavailable he should play 40-42 min and could hit 13 by accident.

EDITED to correct Tatum’s total to 28.5
 
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Marceline

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Wiggins over 22.5 points+rebounds for -127.

Don't like the juice on this one but the number is too good to pass up. I think he goes over this easily.
 

tbb345

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Apr 23, 2010
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Wiggins over 22.5 points+rebounds for -127.

Don't like the juice on this one but the number is too good to pass up. I think he goes over this easily.
Hit this one too. Also Al Horford 23.5 points+rebounds+assists
 

HomeRunBaker

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Missed my 8 leg parlay by 1 Tatum assist.

Worst. Night. Ever.
You can thank Ime for quitting in the 3Q when we were down 9. I’m not sure I’ve seen worse decision making by an NBA Finals coach between that and the continued use of 2BIGZ against this team.
 

BigSoxFan

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You can thank Ime for quitting in the 3Q when we were down 9. I’m not sure I’ve seen worse decision making by an NBA Finals coach between that and the continued use of 2BIGZ against this team.
Yeah, that hurt. I hate how blowouts impact NBA betting. When one team shuts it down, everything gets ruined.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Freakin Yeah!!!! Keeping that Warrior TT and Warrior 2H TT Under the number!! I feel much better about what transpired tonight now. Great night on financial end. Shitty night as a fan.
 

Mloaf71

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Jul 13, 2005
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Missed my 8 leg parlay by 1 Tatum assist.

Worst. Night. Ever.
Missed a +875 parlay by 1 Curry assist. C’s don’t fold and Curry has to play a little in the 4th maybe things are different.

I did hit Wiggins First basket at +800 so had a good night overall (had Horford on the C’s side so was way off there).
 

tbb345

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Apr 23, 2010
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You can thank Ime for quitting in the 3Q when we were down 9. I’m not sure I’ve seen worse decision making by an NBA Finals coach between that and the continued use of 2BIGZ against this team.
This was just a bad game overall.

Ime was not good. Continuing to play Theis is mind blowing. Playing Theis and Grant together, against this team, is just malpractice.

The refs were complete dogshit. This was one of the worst officiated games I have ever seen. They completely ruined any sort of flow or momentum to the game. Not throwing Draymond out after that Jaylen skirmish is crazy.

I won the Warriors under 109 bet…Wiggins probably cashes out too if that 3rd quarter didn’t go off the rails
 

HomeRunBaker

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Don’t drop the ball unless you want a worse number.

* Played Under 212.5 in G3 and ready to pounce again on the Warriors TT Under once it is posted probably in the morning.
 

Jim Ed Rice in HOF

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Jul 21, 2005
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Missed my 8 leg parlay by 1 Tatum assist.

Worst. Night. Ever.
Yikes, that sucks. I had a 3 leg Tatum points O 25.5/first quarter points O 50.5/heat under 113.5. I tend to tease them down because I'm a wimp but it still paid +330.

I took a loss on the 1st Q GS -1.5. Curry not throwing up a 3 on the last possession kind of annoyed me.
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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Celtics haven't lost 2 straight since the end of March. I hate that i looked that up and now im talking myself into stuff.
 

HomeRunBaker

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O/U is currently at 213, so I will likely we trailing you on this one. Is anyone have any prop bets they like tonight? Green over 1.5 techs?
So far only on the U212.5 and looking at some Tatum Overs along with Unders on TL from Boston and Unders on some Warrior role players like Wiggins and Payton.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Decided on the Warrior to fade to be Looney need him under 6.5 points. It’s the type of game he gets lost offensively and home crowd/energy should help the Celtics defensive rebounding so really there isn’t anywhere for Looney to get his FGA and therefore his points.

Also, played some Celtics -3 (-115) as well.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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Decided on the Warrior to fade to be Looney need him under 6.5 points. It’s the type of game he gets lost offensively and home crowd/energy should help the Celtics defensive rebounding so really there isn’t anywhere for Looney to get his FGA and therefore his points.

Also, played some Celtics -3 (-115) as well.
I was thinking of you at 2-0 but all's well that ends well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I was thinking of you at 2-0 but all's well that ends well.
Looney got another one right after that and we lost him under the basket at the start of the 3Q too. He wasn’t involved much aside from that but still had to get a little lucky bc he can get a garbage deuce at any time.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Stuff I like tonight…….

* Celtics -4
* Warriors TT Under 105
* Tatum Over 5.5 Assists
 

NoXInNixon

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Mar 24, 2008
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I'm seeing JB at +340 to win Finals MVP. That's ridiculous value, right? I know Tatum should be the favorite, but what if he's hurt and isn't going to play better than this? Brown is the MVP of the first three games.
 

Red Averages

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Through 3 games:

Jaylen: 68 points, 22 rebounds, 13 assists, 8 turnovers
Tatum: 66 points, 17 rebounds, 25 assists, 8 turnovers

Tie goes to Tatum so far.

You'd have to assume Jaylen is the facilitator or puts up 30+ twice to win MVP. Given the Celtics are running the offense through Tatum, if the Celtics win another 2 games I think he'd have to be the favorite over Jaylen. The other thing to ask, if Tatum isn't dominating, do the Celtics win two more games?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm seeing JB at +340 to win Finals MVP. That's ridiculous value, right? I know Tatum should be the favorite, but what if he's hurt and isn't going to play better than this? Brown is the MVP of the first three games.
I think this is way way off. Brown is playing great no doubt but Tatum is attracting double and triple teams every time he puts the ball on the floor while acting as our defacto PG on many/most possessions and defending/rebounding. Something would have to change dramatically for the Celtics to win and Tatum NOT be the Finals MVP.
 

zak1013

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Jul 14, 2005
6
DK has a prop up for highest single scoring game in the series. JB is listed at +2500 (Curry -2500, JT +950). So essentially a bet that Brown will score more than Curry’s 43 last night (and Curry won’t top himself). Seems like some good value here given Tatum’s role as a playmaker in the series so far - 25 to 1 seems pretty generous. What do others think?
 

BigSoxFan

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DK has a prop up for highest single scoring game in the series. JB is listed at +2500 (Curry -2500, JT +950). So essentially a bet that Brown will score more than Curry’s 43 last night (and Curry won’t top himself). Seems like some good value here given Tatum’s role as a playmaker in the series so far - 25 to 1 seems pretty generous. What do others think?
The problem is that 43 may not be Curry’s high point…

But at those odds, you could throw a small amount on it for fun. Tatum ain’t going anywhere near that number so it’d have to be Jaylen
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Played tonight……

* Celtics +1.5 1H

We are 7-0 off a loss and to do so here would likely require a 1H lead so I’d play this rather than full game +4 without having to worry about the Warriors 3Q. Good spot for Celtics live bet after 3Q if we are trailing.

Props
* Looney Over 7.5 Reb (maxing online and sneaking as much as I can at Mohegan Sun in about 20 min if I can get same number).

He’s going to get the majority of big minutes with Warriors likely to go small. Feel free to play some Draymond Unders.
* Draymond P/R/A number is 21.5 and I played some Under here too.

* Tatum Over 5.5 Assists. Can’t believe the only adjustment made is in the high juice (I have these between -135 and -150. I’ll keep cashing it from our PG.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I should have been on the Unders last game with the cross country travel and thought I lost that 210-211 number. Typically you get into G6 & G7 you lose 4-5 pts each game. For reasons unbeknownst to me, another cross country trip actually opens it the same rather than an even more significant drop than normal. So here I am expecting 204 or so…….but we get it locked in almost across the board at 211 and even some at 211.5 which makes me very happy.

Prop I’m playing will be Draymond’s Under P/R/A. It was 21.5 last game. He produced more than he did in any game this series while receiving extra minutes due to Looney’s foul trouble…..and it was at home where he seemed to feed off crowd. I would max this out if I can get a similar number.


I am unsure how I’m playing the side as I feel this could be a volatile result. I like the value on the Warriors mailing it in if they get behind early so the Margin of Victory market is enticing to me. I haven’t looked at all of them yet but I see Celtics by 17-20 at +1200 and Celtics by 21 or more at +700. I’ll look to blend this to have Celtics by 17 or more at around +1000.

Honestly, if we are going to win and send it back west I feel this result occurs much more frequently than 1 out of 11 games.

* So Under 211, Draymond’s Under P/R/A (at 20.5 or higher), and Celtics by 17 or more. These are my plays.
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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Thinking of sprinkling a little both ways. Boston double digits and warriors double digits. Feels like there's either pack it in or run out of gas potential on the table.