Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
Yuuuuup. 21 points in the last ~2 minutes, when one team was up 18 after putting up close to 24 points in the last minute in the prior game when one team was up 8 with 40 seconds left. Ridiculous.
Also, both of those early games yesterday easily printed the 1st quarter under. The Warriors/Denver game was wild. From taking the in-game O/U down to 212 heading into the 2nd quarter to finishing near 425. I think the Nuggets shot 50% from 3.
* Over 211.5 Sixers/Raptors
Coming off a perfect read in this series (and a split below) taking advantage of the early start time Under on Sat. Number is incorrectly adjusted due to this recency bias and the absence of FVV hurts the Raptors defense while likely increasing their pace some.
Coming off a perfect read in this series (and a split below) taking advantage of the early start time Under on Sat. Number is incorrectly adjusted due to this recency bias and the absence of FVV hurts the Raptors defense while likely increasing their pace some.
Hoping to get a few empty possessions after this timeout to play the Over as close to the 222 close as possible. Neither team digging in defensively and both can score tons here.
Edit: It was 226.5 at post and got Over at 221.5 & 220.5
Edit: It was 226.5 at post and got Over at 221.5 & 220.5
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Won the Celtics in-game Overs. Lost the Raptor pre-game Under.
Open your books in the morning and see what you have for Toronto series line bc they are live to win this series.
Open your books in the morning and see what you have for Toronto series line bc they are live to win this series.
Three games tonight and what I would consider three super strong setups.
* Miami -7.5
I will also be playing Winning Margin here. Heat by 17-20 & Over 21 and I’ll blend accordingly. Nobody has ever defended Trae Young like this and he looks ready to pack it in. This should be a rout. I played some at -7 last night, it’s -7.5 now and expect it to close -8.5 so get it asap.
* Under 215.5 Suns/Pelicans & Under 232.5 Grizz/Wolves
I grouped these together bc they hold the same theme. No adjustment down off previous games close despite being deeper into the series with 3-pt shooting (Mem-Min) and late game scoring variance (Phoe-NO) pushing both Over in their previous game.
I’d lean taking the points in both of those Unders with a correlated parlay, Minn & Under and Pelicans & Under being value for sprinkle.
Edit: A couple Team Totals to target would be Under Hawks and Under Suns.
* Miami -7.5
I will also be playing Winning Margin here. Heat by 17-20 & Over 21 and I’ll blend accordingly. Nobody has ever defended Trae Young like this and he looks ready to pack it in. This should be a rout. I played some at -7 last night, it’s -7.5 now and expect it to close -8.5 so get it asap.
* Under 215.5 Suns/Pelicans & Under 232.5 Grizz/Wolves
I grouped these together bc they hold the same theme. No adjustment down off previous games close despite being deeper into the series with 3-pt shooting (Mem-Min) and late game scoring variance (Phoe-NO) pushing both Over in their previous game.
I’d lean taking the points in both of those Unders with a correlated parlay, Minn & Under and Pelicans & Under being value for sprinkle.
Edit: A couple Team Totals to target would be Under Hawks and Under Suns.
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Sixers/Raptors series line posted offshore now.
* Raptors +485 (BetOnline)
I’m unsure if I’ve ever been more confident on a +485 dog. I’ll obv be playing Toronto in G6 too. Surprised there is little market adjustment based on how this series has swung.
* Raptors +485 (BetOnline)
I’m unsure if I’ve ever been more confident on a +485 dog. I’ll obv be playing Toronto in G6 too. Surprised there is little market adjustment based on how this series has swung.
BetOnline had that at +500 last night before I went to bed, so it's already moved.
If you bet them straight up in both games you probably come out slightly better than +485 depending on where you think the line ends up for a G7. They are +105 for G6.
Edit: +186 or better for G7 gets you ahead of the +485.
Yea I did the math and Toronto would have to be +5 or shorter to play the games individually. Last night Philly closed at -9 and I project a -7 for a G7 so I expect the series number to be the better value.
I think you have it backwards, unless I am getting confused at what you are saying. If you project -7 in G7 then you would be getting better value betting the games individually rather than the series number.
+105 ML with +230 ML gives you +576 odds.
Yup my dyslexia got the best of me. Thank you. Now I’ll play more individually to increase my blended odds.
Under in Minny/Memphis got pounded. Down to 231 now. Suns/NO down to 214.5. Again, the theme of these playoffs have been mispriced Totals resulting in solid CLV in 80% of plays.
More than made up for by the Wolves Under rather than taking the Overtime beat while having two older Chinese men next to me at the Mohegan Sun sports book repeatedly screaming, “OT! OT! OT!” in my ear literally 15 times following Edwards 3-pointer.
Thank you Ja, I owe you one.
Pretty much every position I’m playing now are over leveraged. The two Unders last night would definitely qualify. It’s been a pretty awesome couple weeks. Only thing I’ve played pregame tonight are Warriors 1H -5 & -5.5 not for crazy amounts and need the Bucks to win to cash every combo of Bucks -2.5 games, Bucks 4-1 (4-0 already lost), and series ends in 5 (in 4 already lost).
Riding my Raptors series bet and also playing Under 209.5 in this game. Should be another slow grind it out game as all these series get extended. Not looking to overthink and playing Under 214.5 in Suns/Pels as well but like the Tor/Phil Under stronger.
HRB - thoughts on Celtics +115 for a series -1.5 spread vs paying the -205?
Celtics in 6 or better seems better than a coin flip….
Celtics in 6 or better seems better than a coin flip….
I’m not crazy about it based on the scheduling which is why they are enticing you with that number. While it is a tempting number…..barring a sweep you have to win in 5 or win a close out game in Milwaukee. Me personally I’m staying always from Fancy Play Syndrome but we are all rooting for you if you go this route.
hmm didn’t you make a similar bet on the Heat?
Aren’t you really just isolating the odds of the Celtics winning the series in game 7 vs 4, 5 or 6? -210 vs +115 seems like a huge difference. Am I missing something? Isn’t that roughly 20% odds that the Celtics in game 7, vs games 4, 5, 6? If I’m getting ~46% odds on the Celtics winning in 6 or sooner vs 67% odds of them winning the series at any point.
If I did with Miami it was due to the series being a mismatch to where I didn’t place a ton of weight on home court for the straight up winner. In other words, Boston would have a more difficult time winning G6 in Milwaukee than Miami would in Atlanta with how their defense would another Young.
I am going to respectfully disagree (hate to go against HRB here), I think +115 is great value on the Celtics -1.5.
I'm seeing that line at +100 at my book. I'd bet it at +115.
I'm seeing that line at +100 at my book. I'd bet it at +115.
Well I also talked to my rep and they will give me back a meaningful amount of the bet (15-20%) if it loses. So now you can do a combo of the two in a ratio with even better risk / reward.
I really hope all of this talk doesn’t lead to Tatum tearing his ACL in the shower tomorrow.
I really hope all of this talk doesn’t lead to Tatum tearing his ACL in the shower tomorrow.
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Got a question for you moneyline mavens.
In another forum I told a raging D-bag Knick fan/Celtic hater, before the season started that the best value picks in the East were the Heat at 35:1 and the Celts at 40:1
[quote author=bankshot1 link=topic=11.msg187472#msg187472 date=1630295995]
[quote author=kidcarter8 link=topic=11.msg187466#msg187466 date=1630292257]
CELTICS 40-1 to win it all, 20-1 to win East
Falling fast.
[/quote]
Falling? When?
They've generally been grouped as the 4-5-6 seed in the East which seems fair.
Its hard to bet against the Nets/Durant but they seem combustible. I don't trust them.
I like the Heat as my value pick at 35 to 1, Celts at 40 isn't bad.
I suspect that the Celts will gel as a team as the season progresses and they learn to play under Coach U.
There is a shitload of young talent on that team, (as mentioned a couple of weeks ago they have 8 homegrown 1s) several of whom were developmentally sidetracked by covid, for the past 2 years.
And if luck reverts to the mean, this snakebit team, will be the luckiest team in the NBA for the next few years.
Its only fair.
Get 'em while they're cheap.
[/quote]
LSS, I was the bigger D-bag by not putting my money, yada yada yada,
but if I had what would the cash-out be at the current Celts +370 Heat +640 to win the championship.
Edit added prediction
In another forum I told a raging D-bag Knick fan/Celtic hater, before the season started that the best value picks in the East were the Heat at 35:1 and the Celts at 40:1
[quote author=bankshot1 link=topic=11.msg187472#msg187472 date=1630295995]
[quote author=kidcarter8 link=topic=11.msg187466#msg187466 date=1630292257]
CELTICS 40-1 to win it all, 20-1 to win East
Falling fast.
[/quote]
Falling? When?
They've generally been grouped as the 4-5-6 seed in the East which seems fair.
Its hard to bet against the Nets/Durant but they seem combustible. I don't trust them.
I like the Heat as my value pick at 35 to 1, Celts at 40 isn't bad.
I suspect that the Celts will gel as a team as the season progresses and they learn to play under Coach U.
There is a shitload of young talent on that team, (as mentioned a couple of weeks ago they have 8 homegrown 1s) several of whom were developmentally sidetracked by covid, for the past 2 years.
And if luck reverts to the mean, this snakebit team, will be the luckiest team in the NBA for the next few years.
Its only fair.
Get 'em while they're cheap.
[/quote]
LSS, I was the bigger D-bag by not putting my money, yada yada yada,
but if I had what would the cash-out be at the current Celts +370 Heat +640 to win the championship.
Edit added prediction
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I already played Miami -3.5 in G1 and -175 series along with a sprinkle on series props of Heat 4-1 at +450 and Heat 4-0 at +1150.
You’re well-positioned if the news ends up being bad. My source wasn’t very optimistic so we’ll see.
I realized I’m also assuming risk with Butler’s knee which is why these were all for normal sized plays.
It’s someone who is close to the situation. I heard there are tests today so expecting to hear something by EOD or maybe tomorrow. Guessing Embiid may have suffered some sort of facial fracture on the elbow from Siakam. Also possible he may avoid the worst case and just do the Laimbeer mask routine. Or maybe my source was just being overly pessimistic and tests show he’s fine. What I heard this morning is that he might miss the entire series and it was positioned as more likely than not.
Wow Great stuff, wish I was in a location to take advantage of it earlier.
Heat have jumped to -8.5 in game 1, the series numbers are off the board after being on there all day unadjusted.
Heat have jumped to -8.5 in game 1, the series numbers are off the board after being on there all day unadjusted.
Check your books late tonight or early tomorrow to get the best Golden State number in 36 hours. I can’t imagine Memphis having much chance to stay within 15.
Forgot the game was in Memphis which somewhat adjusted my strategy. There are maybe 2-3 scenarios a year when a Martingale strategy would be +EV. I’d have to believe that the Sun afternoon and Tues night game qualifies here following that Wolves series.
So I played Warriors -2 and if the Grizz suck it up to come out with a win there would be a natural letdown for them in G2. Essentially betting heavily against the Grizz being up 2-0.
A lot of things had to happen to not win or even push the Warriors play down the stretch. Every one of them did lol.
Not NBA betting related but…..
Made road trip from FL to CT to look for a second home/investment property up here and to play in the WSOP main event satellites at Foxwoods these last two Sundays. Couldn’t find a house but we did come away with a Main Event seat! I’ll call that a win. LFG!!!
Made road trip from FL to CT to look for a second home/investment property up here and to play in the WSOP main event satellites at Foxwoods these last two Sundays. Couldn’t find a house but we did come away with a Main Event seat! I’ll call that a win. LFG!!!
Congrats. Did you satellite in to the $1200, or just play it? I was going to play it this weekend but I got tied up with some stuff in Providence. Hopefully I can get down there in two weeks. BTW, this is a lousy market to pick up a house around here.
Awful market to try and pick up a house lol! No I drove up to play both Sundays for the $1200 buy-in. I may be back up in two weeks as you can play for the $12k in cash if you already won a seat. Let me know if you’re heading up that way.
Played Celtics -4.5 in G2 based on the playoff zig-zag and rebound off an early afternoon loss. Tomorrow is a good spot for them to cash.
Both games land WAY below the total last night. Tonight the auto-Under will be tested in a big way bc one of my strongest plays of the week is actually an OVER! What is wrong with me?
* Over 207.5 Sixers/Heat
Teams combined for 198 despite a combined 15-70 from three. Like most teams coming off a G1 loss I expect the Sixers to come out sharp so sprinkling some 1Q at +3 is good as well as the 1Q ML at +160. Don’t let it deter from yet another woefully mispriced total tonight. Could have gotten 206.5 yesterday but some dumbass was driving 20 hours from CT to FL.
Edit: Another sprinkle that I see with value is the Double Result if your book offers it. Combine the 1H winner with the full game winner. Sixers 1H/Heat FT is +450 at one of mine. I’ll be playing these sprinkles and 1Q Sixers stuff for a total of 10-12% of my play on the Over. A portion of that Over will also be on the 1H number I haven’t allocated the amount yet though.
* Over 207.5 Sixers/Heat
Teams combined for 198 despite a combined 15-70 from three. Like most teams coming off a G1 loss I expect the Sixers to come out sharp so sprinkling some 1Q at +3 is good as well as the 1Q ML at +160. Don’t let it deter from yet another woefully mispriced total tonight. Could have gotten 206.5 yesterday but some dumbass was driving 20 hours from CT to FL.
Edit: Another sprinkle that I see with value is the Double Result if your book offers it. Combine the 1H winner with the full game winner. Sixers 1H/Heat FT is +450 at one of mine. I’ll be playing these sprinkles and 1Q Sixers stuff for a total of 10-12% of my play on the Over. A portion of that Over will also be on the 1H number I haven’t allocated the amount yet though.
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Prop guys.
I played some Overs to Maxey. O21.5 Pta & O28.5 PRA too. I expect him to be the Sixers guy who steps it up here.
I played some Overs to Maxey. O21.5 Pta & O28.5 PRA too. I expect him to be the Sixers guy who steps it up here.
Playing some Ayton Over Props after my Maxey read has me flexing my prop muscles!
O9.5 Reb (-140)
O29.5 Pts/Reb (-130)
O9.5 Reb (-140)
O29.5 Pts/Reb (-130)