Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
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Celtics are still -155. They opened at -160 and got to -185.
Ewing theory game? Sub in TimeLord for Al and White for Smart and go with a short bench.
As an investor in the game this is what I’m afraid of and hate that the Celtics are not at full strength or at least have Horford in the lineup.
As a Celtics fan I’m crying in my hands while trying to convince myself that a Miami exhale while other Celtics pick up the slack is a real phenomenon (it is).
Maybe I’ll just go to bed now.
It’s moving in opposite direction but I still like some points to be scored here. I played Over 98 in 1H for normal (which is about 30%) of my Heat play tonight.
It was a good night. 
Only regret was not taking more Overs once Smart was ruled out. That was like free money.
* Played Dallas +5 in Game 1 and I have them in Series as well. I’m trying to think of a non-injury scenario where I’m not playing Dallas every game in this series. I feel they are the better team and won’t be priced as such in any game. So if I don’t post it just assume I’m playing Dallas each game.
* Played Boston +4 before anyone officially returns where I lose a couple points. If Smart plays I’ll add a bunch more at +2.5 or so. Didn’t touch the series number yet as it’s a crappy +125/+130 where I have it. If we go down 0-2 then I will definitely be looking to step in.
Only regret was not taking more Overs once Smart was ruled out. That was like free money.* Played Dallas +5 in Game 1 and I have them in Series as well. I’m trying to think of a non-injury scenario where I’m not playing Dallas every game in this series. I feel they are the better team and won’t be priced as such in any game. So if I don’t post it just assume I’m playing Dallas each game.
* Played Boston +4 before anyone officially returns where I lose a couple points. If Smart plays I’ll add a bunch more at +2.5 or so. Didn’t touch the series number yet as it’s a crappy +125/+130 where I have it. If we go down 0-2 then I will definitely be looking to step in.
I immediately took the TimeLord over (8.5) and Payton (8.5) when the Smart/Horford news came out. Within 2 min of the game starting I took TimeLord over 12.5. All 3 of those cashed by the middle of the 2nd quarter.
I took the Celtics +4 in game 2 (1 unit) and the money line +155 for 3 units as I think I get a chance to hedge that in game at some point if desired.
I took the Celtics +4 in game 2 (1 unit) and the money line +155 for 3 units as I think I get a chance to hedge that in game at some point if desired.
Had a great night on player props last night.
Had Brown Double/Double +360 and a parlay (Brown O23.5, Tatum U29.5, O203.5, Miami -3.5) +1330.
Unfortunately, Tatum's 3rd quarter meltdown cost the C's the game, but as a consolation prize it made me a bit of coin.
Had Brown Double/Double +360 and a parlay (Brown O23.5, Tatum U29.5, O203.5, Miami -3.5) +1330.
Unfortunately, Tatum's 3rd quarter meltdown cost the C's the game, but as a consolation prize it made me a bit of coin.
Nice hit!!! I didn’t want to spread myself too thin after the side, which cost me some Over money, and didn’t get involved in the prop market…….but that Tatum U29.5 played right into the quick turnaround/road game/adjust to Miami traps narrative.
This is great! You have to be fast but brilliant to first hit the derivative market as that is always last to be adjusted.
*** Careful guys!
Msg from Telegram source who often gets good info prior to news hitting.
“I’m hearing that COVID is worse than they said. Not sure.”
A little cryptic but I wouldn’t touch Boston in G2 right now. Considering buying back if I hear anything else. Probably should already.
Msg from Telegram source who often gets good info prior to news hitting.
“I’m hearing that COVID is worse than they said. Not sure.”
A little cryptic but I wouldn’t touch Boston in G2 right now. Considering buying back if I hear anything else. Probably should already.
I’m going to be hitting Overs (1H & FT) based on my feeling that Smart’s absence will continue through G2. I still like it with him so no reason to fire now before it adjusts further. Number is still way way way too low at this stage of the series.
I mentioned this in one of the threads. His touches have gone to Butler in the playoffs. He’s a one-way defensive weapon right now but that could change if/when Smart returns and those easy buckets/FT’s for Jimmy don’t occur each time down the floor.
Yeah, I asked the question before the game and stupidly went ahead with it. I got the block prop since he always blocks our shots. Thinking I’ll hit Butler/Herro props going forward. We don’t have answers for either.
I like Tatum Over. I would look to some low numbers on Miami’s role players if Smart is playing. Angle being Butler isn’t going to be getting all the way to rim and looking for his shooters…..Vincent and Strus primarily.
Still probably value on all the stars going over in a playoff game too. Maybe some Under Pritchard thinking he isn’t going to see many minutes with Smart’s return and Ime’s likely reliance on a shorter rotation being down 0-1.
Now looks like no White per Tims’ post in the other thread. Smart scoring overs?
Meh I don’t think White has much impact on Smart’s offense but I’d back off the Pritchard Unders. Tatum is going to get up close to 30 shots tonight so I’d just stick to that.
I played Celtics +3.5 and ML +140 just now. Banking on Smart being able to slow down Butler.
Undecided on Total…..probably will look to get a better number live.
Undecided on Total…..probably will look to get a better number live.
HRB, what’s the over/under you’re seeing for Strus points and how high would you go? I 100% agree with your line of thinking on Butler and I think Strus will be the main beneficiary (similar to Duncan Robinson in years past). I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t get to 12 pts.
EDIT: To add on to this, the line for points is 12.5…or just the line where I don’t feel comfortable either way.
however, his over/under for 3PM is 2.5…seems like a good over bet to me. Thoughts?
I also like the TimeLord props. 9.5 for points, 20.5 for points+rebs+assists.
Tatum 35.5 total points, rebounds and assists seems pretty juicy too
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Yeah I like all of those. I’d want to be sure Horford is out before touching TL though and he was just upgraded to questionable.
HRB, does that out the question about the over on the table? Seems like much better team defense from the Cs tonight with TL, Horford and Smart seemingly back.
I was staying away from pregame Total with so many variables in play. Not only are we at full strength but I’d like to see what the adjustments look like in real time plus get a better number than pregame.
Much like the first game I like the side so strong that I’m not going near total yet. (I liked total much more in G1 enough to have some pregame 1H on it). If I can I’ll jump in if/when I do anything in-game.
At the gym now once I get settled I’ll look at that. I like the 260……200 not so much.
I was unable to get the action at +260 since I had max bet Miami to win the series at this particular book prior to game 1 and they consider it part of the "same" bet.
Yeah I have some like that too. My favs are the ones where you can max the spread, ML, 1H spread and 1H ML. Can’t be greedy to always take advantage of this or else it will get taken away.
I don’t mind a little Double Result Bos/Bos (ML 1H/ML game) at +225 either since I feel we take control of this game early.
Love the correlation here! GL
I played a couple large Jersey Mike’s subs on Tatum 35+pts, 8+Reb, 8+ Assts at (+2800).
Now we know why the Celtics have two rows of assistant coaches. Need one to monitor The Port Cellar for timeout bulletin board material.
I meant to but I didn't get there in time. Just missed it by a few minutes.
I did go pretty big on Boston ML earlier and took them to win the series at +120 at a different book after getting shut out on the -1.5 +260 line.
Also added a bit on Celtics title at +325 since I felt this might be the last chance to get them at those odds.
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C’s open at -5.5 for game 3. O/U is down to 208, which at first glance seems surprising given the overs have hit in both games. I guess they assume with White back and the Celtics shooting lights out it’ll be more of a low scoring affair…
Series is back to Celtics -180 and the -1.5 series spread is +105.
Series is back to Celtics -180 and the -1.5 series spread is +105.
The series moved to -255 (was +115 pre game 2) Celtics and the -1.5 series spread is now -130 (was +200 to +260 pre game 2) . Clearly people have piled in some serious cash after Game 2. That overnight swing is substantial.
I wonder what the correction will be but you could have made some serious money betting under on all Bam Adebayo related props (specifically points). I’ll be paying attention to that for Game 3. Celtics match up very well with him, he looks a bit physically compromised, and I am not sure the Heat will commit to manufacturing touches for him when there’s not a ton of benefit there.
Yeah, he ruined many of my game 1 props. I should have shorted him in Game 2. HRB is right. He’s just not getting looks and is basically playing the JYD role.
Hes ruined my DFS plays. Yesterday was the final straw for me, he’s just not performing
I took his under in games 1 and 2. I suspect his number will come down a lot, towards 10, so I don't have as much interest at that level.
I'd think the Celtics will try to focus on taking away Butler. They largely did outside of 6 minutes to start the 3rd when he got about 15 points.