Biggest Sox Prospect Busts by Position

[The Talented Allen Ripley]

Chad Finn provides his list of biggest Sox prospect busts in the Globe today. It's behind a paywall, so I'll limit what I share to his criteria and the names (Finn went by position), no commentary. I'm sure we can provide our own commentary, as well as argue about whether worthier choices were appropriate.

A couple of ground rules: I eliminated from consideration players who might have been annoying or didn’t fully live up to their hype, but still ended up having quality major league careers. Clay Buchholz has pitched 13 years in the majors, made two All-Star teams, and finished sixth in the Cy Young voting once. He’s many things, but he’s not a bust. Same goes for Daisuke Matsuzaka, to a different degree.

I also eliminated players that had their promise curtailed by unfortunate real-life circumstances, such as Ryan Westmoreland and Andy Yount.

I eliminated players who never should have been considered prospects in the first place, such as Kung-Fu-fighting Izzy Alcantara, who was 27 when he debuted in 2000, and Pat Dodson, who broke through at age 26 in 1986 in his third full season in Pawtucket and somehow managed to be a Donruss Rated Rookie and a Topps Future Star on his 1987 baseball cards.

And — perhaps wrongly, but hey, it’s the approach I’m taking — I eliminated players who did briefly thrive in the major leagues before the game caught up to them. You’re not busts to me, Sam Horn, Phil Plantier, and Will Middlebrooks. The good moments might have been fleeting, but they sure were fun.

Finn's list:

C - Blake Swihart
1B - Otis Foster
2B - Donnie Sadler
SS - Juan Bustabad
3B - Wilton Veras
LF - Greg Blosser
CF - Rusney Castillo
RF - Rick Asadoorian
RHP - Mike Brown
LHP - Trey Ball
Reliever - Craig Hansen

Let the debate begin!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Would Frankie Rodriguez qualify as a SS or a P ... or both?

Also, I still am of the belief that Swihart's "bust" status isn't entirely his doing ... but darned if I can't find a catcher to use instead at the moment

 

[tims4wins]

Donnie Sadler had a career OPS+ of 39. Somehow he got over 800 career PAs. Astounding.

 

[pokey_reese]

I feel like Lars Anderson deserves at least an honorable mention. Brian Rose was a big one, too.

 

[tims4wins]

It's crazy to look at Hansen's minor league stats. In 2005 - the year he was drafted - he threw 12.2 IP, 14 K to 1 BB, and didn't give up a single run. The Sox brought him up, he sucked, and he was never the same again.

 

[Van Everyman]

Brian Rose was in the Pedro deal tho, right? That's value.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I feel like Lars Anderson deserves at least an honorable mention. Brian Rose was a big one, too.

You could put together a decent bust squad just from guys who got us all hot and bothered in Lancaster in the Lars Anderson era.

On the pitching side, the name Bowden was once uttered with the same reverence as Buchholz.

My personal all-bust starting rotation is:
Michael Bowden
Henry Owens
Allen Webster
Rubby de la Rosa
Anthony Ranaudo

I exclude Trey Ball from my list because he was basically never good. Nobody liked the pick, and he never had a real streak where he looked like he would put it together. All the guys on my list gave at least something to dream on right up until they made the bigs and were largely found wanting.

 

[tims4wins]

Brian Rose was in the Pedro deal tho, right? That's value.

No. Pavano

Edit: Brian Rose was never even good in the minors. He should never have been hyped. Like at ALL.

 

[Bongorific]

What’s the criteria in terms of years in the system or level of Red Sox minor league team? Because Casey Kelly had boatloads of hype.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I feel like Lars Anderson deserves at least an honorable mention. Brian Rose was a big one, too.

Garin Cecchini
Dernell Stenson was headed that way but was murdered.
Michael Coleman

 

[E5 Yaz]

Michael Coleman

Yeah, I'm thinking he needs to have an outfield spot

 

[Cesar Crespo]

What’s the criteria in terms of years in the system or level of Red Sox minor league team? Because Casey Kelly has boatloads of hype.

Do injuries count as real life circumstances? There's a bunch of pitchers you can add like Allen Webster and Ranuado too.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Tony Blanco is a huge omission and should be the 3b.

Anderson Espinoza. "ducks*

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What’s the criteria in terms of years in the system or level of Red Sox minor league team? Because Casey Kelly had boatloads of hype.

I am wondering the same thing about criteria. Rip quotes the criteria that eliminated players, but not what included them in the running.

I would think that Kelly would be excluded, as would anyone else that the Sox traded away for useful players. Can't be considered a bust if they turned you into Adrian Gonzalez before you busted.

 

[Van Everyman]

It's crazy to look at Hansen's minor league stats. In 2005 - the year he was drafted - he threw 12.2 IP, 14 K to 1 BB, and didn't give up a single run. The Sox brought him up, he sucked, and he was never the same again.

The hype with Hansen was unreal. Gammons was talking about him like the second coming of Bruce Sutter. He was a Boras client too IIRC. I remember his first appearance against TB -- BRef confirms he whiffed two dudes. Unfortunately that was the peak of his career, as BRef also confirms that he then stank the next outing and that was pretty much it.

What's Hansen up to now, you ask? Exciting stuff, let me tell you.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Also, I still am of the belief that Swihart's "bust" status isn't entirely his doing ... but darned if I can't find a catcher to use instead at the moment

Hmmm ... Steve Lomasney?

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I'll nominate this guy for 1B

https://seminoles.com/jeff-ledbetter-bio/
He absolutely mashed in college, and lasted until the 26th pick of the first round in the 1982 draft, where the Sox grabbed him. He was pretty highly regarded, and the neighborhood was pretty excited that the Sox got him. I cant find much on the internet, other than this, from a draft day NYT article:

Shawon Dunston, a shortstop at Thomas Jefferson High School in Brooklyn, and Jeff Ledbetter, a first baseman-outfielder from Florida State, are among the most promising players available in baseball's amateur free-agent draft today.

Never made it above AA with the Sox

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ledbet001jef

 

[dentstone]

.

 

[JayMags71]

Also, I still am of the belief that Swihart's "bust" status isn't entirely his doing ... but darned if I can't find a catcher to use instead at the moment

Hmmm ... Steve Lomasney?

John Marzano?

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

The hype with Hansen was unreal. Gammons was talking about him like the second coming of Bruce Sutter. He was a Boras client too IIRC. I remember his first appearance against TB -- BRef confirms he whiffed two dudes. Unfortunately that was the peak of his career, as BRef also confirms that he then stank the next outing and that was pretty much it.

What's Hansen up to now, you ask? Exciting stuff, let me tell you.

I was at this gem in '06, during which he "closed" a blowout win with a career-high 39 pitches. Many of which came in at 98 and were sent back at about 208.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

As a Pre-cog, I expect Durbin Feltman to make this list

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Donnie Sadler had a career OPS+ of 39. Somehow he got over 800 career PAs. Astounding.

He was crazy quick. I still remember a game where Paul O'Neil of the yankees grounded a ball into the hole between first and second and started taking a wide path to first to round the bag but Sadler got the ball and even started a double play. The look on O'Neil's face was priceless as he got to first way too late to avoid the 4-6-3.

 

[Melrose Diner]

Ryan Kalish probably doesn't qualify on Finn's standards but I remember there being tons of hype around him, and of course he got hurt too

 

[DJnVa]

How about John Curtice? First round pick that never made it out of A ball. I ran into him about 10 years back playing beer league softball. I guess maybe his shoulder issues take him out of the running, but that's a quick flameout for a high pick.

http://www.pilotonline.com/sports/article_b14e3da5-680b-5e58-a26b-6750d41c2a89.html
Pic in spoiler

Spoiler

 

[E5 Yaz]

John Marzano?

Being an Olympic Hero (TM) should count for something

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

I feel like Ryan Westmoreland needs one of the corner OF spots.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Craig Hansen was diagnosed with brachial plexus neuropathy, a rare condition causing pain, weakness, and numbness in the arms, shoulders, and upper back.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I feel like Ryan Westmoreland needs one of the corner OF spots.

This coming from you is darkly comic ... but, of course, breaks with Chad's parameters

 

[joe dokes]

Jose Malave?

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Hmmm ... Steve Lomasney?

I took hitting lessons in Danvers from his dad when I was in high school. I was disappointed when he didn't make it.

I think Coleman, Rodriguez, Sadler and Rose fit the bill, short of filling out a full lineup. Veras, sure. I'm also trying to filter my recollections with Gammons write ups, everyone was a "special person"; I loved the guy but he wasn't a scout.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

This coming from you is darkly comic ... but, of course, breaks with Chad's parameters

Yeah that's fucked up. Dude is lucky he can walk.

 

[mauf]

Do injuries count as real life circumstances? There's a bunch of pitchers you can add like Allen Webster and Ranuado too.

Webster and RDLR were throw-ins in a deal that was mainly about salary relief. The Dodgers knew we wouldn’t let the deal fall apart over the prospects, so it’s clear the Dodgers didn’t think much of those two guys. We talked ourselves into believing they had value.

Ranaudo was a legitimate bust, but pitching prospects wash out so frequently that I think you need to be both really hyped and really bad to enter this discussion. Hansen and Ball are good examples. Ranaudo was just a run-of-the-mill late 1st-rounder who didn’t make it.

Lars Anderson was the Red Sox’ biggest prospect bust of the past decade. He was the can’t-miss guy who did.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

No. Pavano

Edit: Brian Rose was never even good in the minors. He should never have been hyped. Like at ALL.

Rose was actually pretty good in the minors. The season before the Pedro trade he was 17-5, 3.02. His stuff wasn't much better than Al Nipper's, so in the majors when a few guys were on base and he had to throw a strike, it was pretty ugly. As I call, the Expos were allowed to choose between him and Pavano.

How about Sam Horn at DH?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Andy Yount needs to be in the mix.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Henry Owens was once considered one of the 20 Best Prospects in baseball. To me, that makes him more of a bust than someone like Ball who, like someone said above, was basically never good. Unless you want to give Ball extra "credit" for being their highest pick in decades.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Only 34 posts in, and we've already reached the stage where people are posting without reading the original post (and the criteria on which the thread is based).

 

[tims4wins]

Rose was actually pretty good in the minors. The season before the Pedro trade he was 17-5, 3.02. His stuff wasn't much better than Al Nipper's, so in the majors when a few guys were on base and he had to throw a strike, it was pretty ugly. As I call, the Expos were allowed to choose between him and Pavano.

How about Sam Horn at DH?

Define good. He didn't strike anyone out. That season he threw 190.2 IP, 116 K, 46 BB, 1.227 WHIP. He really just wasn't good.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Does Dennis Tankersley count? We didn't get anything of value for him. He was rated as high as #16, although it was after we traded him. He was also one of Gammons very special people and it was at the time Gammons had a hate boner for Dan Duquette.

 

[nighthob]

I was at this gem in '06, during which he "closed" a blowout win with a career-high 39 pitches. Many of which came in at 98 and were sent back at about 208.

Any day where a batted ball didn't break the sound barrier was a good day for Hansen.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Only 34 posts in, and we've already reached the stage where people are posting without reading the original post (and the criteria on which the thread is based).

Oh, hey mom.

I just didn't feel like "vet the work of Chad Finn, per Chad Finn's arbitrary criteria" would be something upheld with any kind of rigor. I'll go pick up my socks now.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Garin Cecchini

Totally. I would put him ahead of Veras, I think.

I would say that Rusney deserves exemption on the "had their promise curtailed by unfortunate real-life circumstances" criterion. He never really got a fair shot at a big league career.

I would also say that Trey Ball was not ever enough of a hyped prospect to be a prospect bust. He was a hyped draft pick, but that hype disappeared almost instantly the minute he began actual pro competition. I think the obviously more deserving candidate for that LHP slot would be Henry Owens, unless you want to claim the Horn/Plantier/Middlebrooks exemption for his 63-innings-of-meh rookie season. (Missed that Danny Darwin was making the same point a few minutes sooner.)

I wasn't quite a Sox fan yet when Otis Foster busted, but boy, if he was a bigger 1B bust than Lars, that's a hell of an achievement.

 

[Plympton91]

No. Pavano

Edit: Brian Rose was never even good in the minors. He should never have been hyped. Like at ALL.

That’s overstating it a lot. Brian Rose was a solid B prospect who got hyped into an A. He was 2 years younger than normal at AA and AAA and more than held his own. A 21 year old with a 3.05 ERA in 27 AAA starts at age 21 is a legit prospect. The K rate was worrisome but not a huge thing at that point as it would be a red flag now.

He probably had his career derailed by the moronic pitching development philosophy in place at that time. Take a look at those innings totals and complete games for a 20 year old in AA and 21 year old in AAA. Retrograde thinking. Most people already knew better at that point. The fact that every young pitcher in the organization over that period ended up hurt Juan Pena, Jerome Gamble, Chris Reitsma, Carl Pavano) was not a coincidence. Total malpractice.

 

[tims4wins]

That’s overstating it a lot. Brian Rose was a solid B prospect who got hyped into an A. He was 2 years younger than normal at AA and AAA and more than held his own. A 21 year old with a 3.05 ERA in 27 AAA starts at age 21 is a legit prospect. The K rate was worrisome but not a huge thing at that point as it would be a red flag now.

He probably had his career derailed by the moronic pitching development philosophy in place at that time. Take a look at those innings totals and complete games for a 20 year old in AA and 21 year old in AAA. Retrograde thinking. Most people already knew better at that point. The fact that every young pitcher in the organization over that period ended up hurt Juan Pena, Jerome Gamble, Chris Reitsma, Carl Pavano) was not a coincidence. Total malpractice.

You're absolutely correct about the K rate and innings totals - the K rate would be an enormous red flag now.

 

[moondog80]

Webster and RDLR were throw-ins in a deal that was mainly about salary relief. The Dodgers knew we wouldn’t let the deal fall apart over the prospects, so it’s clear the Dodgers didn’t think much of those two guys. We talked ourselves into believing they had value.

Wesbter was a universal top 100 prospect at the time of the trade, top 50 by some lists. He was legit.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=webste001car

 

[nighthob]

He was crazy quick. I still remember a game where Paul O'Neil of the yankees grounded a ball into the hole between first and second and started taking a wide path to first to round the bag but Sadler got the ball and even started a double play. The look on O'Neil's face was priceless as he got to first way too late to avoid the 4-6-3.

If anyone could have ever convinced Donnie Sadler that he was all of about 5'5" he would have been pretty good. But when he hit he stood stock straight and tried to hit everything out of the park. If he'd just gone into one of those Ricky Henderson crouches even Greg Maddux wouldn't have been able to throw him strikes.

 

[joe dokes]

Andy Yount needs to be in the mix.

Didnt he slice his fingers off at a friend's funeral or something?

 

[lexrageorge]

Kyle Weiland?

In terms of overhyped, back in the day Peter Gammons would provide weekly tracking of Kevin Morton as he was progressing through the minors.

 

[dirtynine]

I have “Pat Dodson, Future Star” seared into my memory from childhood Topps wax packs. One of these years he’s gonna break through.

 

[billy ashley]

I feel like it's a little insane to call a prospect who made the majors a bust. Baseball is really hard.

Recent guys who should get some consideration

• Trey Ball - this guy gets too much flack in my view as first rounders fail pretty frequently. But he never got it going, apart from a lucky 120 innings in high A. He was pretty much all around terrible. Shame. He didn't do anything wrong.
• Jon Denney - a first round talent who fell due to character concerns. Was given multiple chances with the organization, even after being arrested. Continued being a problem. Only appeared in 26 games.
• Christopher Acosta - was seen as a better prospect than Anderson Espinosa when signed. There were encouraging reports in his limited time as an active player before a series of bizarre, lousy behavior ended his career
• Jason Place - No desire to dog pile on the guy, but he never really lived up to his potential. Beyond that, there were some wild stories about interference from his dad with respect to coaching.
• Kolbrin Vitek - when he was drafted he was seen as a Dustin Ackley type, at a time that this was a huge compliment. Just a complete disaster offensively in the low minors. Never had a position. Shame, as again, this guy did nothing wrong, he just failed to produce, which was shocking given his college career. Bryce Brentz had an equally lousy start but was able to course correct.

I never want to tear down these guys, especially the ones that missed just because they got hurt or weren't good enough to advance. But yeah, there have been some crazy stories over the past few years. I was tempted to include Kukuk as he had a live arm and broke out after a few years of meh in the lower minors, only to be involved in a home invasion later that off-season.

 

[billy ashley]

I think Vitek also had back problems which may have contributed to how astonishingly bad he was.