Billy's weird Offseason: What are the A's doing?

[MakMan44]

So I thought that it would be interesting to have a discussion about what the heck Billy is doing. 
 
We have the obvious in the Donaldson trade but it was reported by Jayson Stark today that the A's are also planning to trade Brandon Moss. Not just they might, but that they're actively planning to. Here's the tweet.
 
https://twitter.com/jaysonst/status/540504945762791424
 
Between that and the Shark rumors, we're getting closer to a rebuild than a retool. I know Reddick said that the players felt they were in rebuilding mode but I hadn't agreed. If they do trade Moss though, I think there's a lot of validity to Reddick's point. 

 

[dylanmarsh]

Here's Beane's side of the story:
 
https://twitter.com/JaneMLB/status/538547001000865792
 
If you believe the MLBTR arbitration numbers, Moss is scheduled to make $3.8M $7.1M in 2015 as a LHH 1B.  That's the exact same amount almost double what the A's just signed Ike Davis to.  Davis is 4 years younger, a better defender and has his prime years ahead of him.  The projected fWAR is +1.3 in favor of Moss in 2015 but I imagine Davis will eclipse Moss in 2016.
 
edit: was working off of pre-2014 data

 

[wutang112878]

Beane's kind of handicapped with his budget, I cant remember if its really ever been above $70M.  So while a guy like Moss doesnt seem that expensive, Beane is going out and trying to replace him with similar production and maybe shave $1M off his payroll by doing so.  In RedSox budget terms this seems crazy, but Billy lives in a different world where he is trying win the division against the Angels who have almost twice the budget to work with and the Mariners who might have 50% more than him.  From the outside it looks confusing to make these moves but he is really just trying to accumulate more and more bargain value players, where every $100K actually matters, in order to compete.

 

[dylanmarsh]

This is pretty fascinating chart that shows what BB is doing is what he's always done: move assets before they begin to depreciate and maintain a competive team.  Out of the 40 players on the A's 40-man roster, only 5 players are listed as "home grown" (1st pro contract signed with the A's).  23 players were acquired via trade.  Respectively, those numbers are both the smallest and biggest numbers in MLB.
 
edit: conversely, the Giants have 24 HG and 5 traded players on the 40-man.

 

[dylanmarsh]

In 2014, the A's opening day payroll was $82M. Between 2009 and 2013, the A's opening day payroll was about $60M.  If BB moves Moss and Samardjiza, the 2015 opening day payroll goes from about $85M to $60M. 

 

[MakMan44]

Thanks for the super thought provoking replies guys. 
 
My opinion was brought about by the thought that he was doing this a year too soon. Moss and Donaldson probably aren't cost prohibitive next season but you've addressed that pretty well. 

 

[GilaMonster]

The only thing I can imagine is that they are looking 3 steps ahead. Maybe in 3 years Lawrie will be as good as Donaldson and Barreto will be a first divison SS. But they were one of the best team in the AL last year. You need to push the chips in...even at  the cost of the future. 

 

[dylanmarsh]

The only thing I can imagine is that they are looking 3 steps ahead. Maybe in 3 years Lawrie will be as good as Donaldson and Barreto will be a first divison SS. But they were one of the best team in the AL last year. You need to push the chips in...even at  the cost of the future. 

 
BB already did that last season when he acquired Shark for Addison Russell, Billy McKinney and Dan Straily.  It netted the A's a one game playoff loss to the eventual AL champs.

 

[dylanmarsh]

In 2014, the A's opening day payroll was $82M. Between 2009 and 2013, the A's opening day payroll was about $60M.  If BB moves Moss and Samardjiza, the 2015 opening day payroll goes from about $85M to $60M. 

 
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/542008175583436800
 
https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/542009881067126784

 

[soxhop411]

“@RealJoshReddick: …….”

 

[moondog80]

Don't know how to link from my phone, but Moss traded for a minor leaguer. Does he have more value or less than Cespedes? He's coming off hip surgery but is two years from FA.

 

[nattysez]

I suspect Beane's scouting tells him he now has a 2B and SS of the future.  Now he moves Shark to the White Sox for a couple more high-quality pieces and the A's will be well-positioned for the future.  
 
Unfortunately for A's fans, all of this looking to the future means that the team is going to be pretty poor this year.  Given the ongoing battles over the stadium, their attendance could reach critically low, Tampa-Bay-esque numbers this year.   Part of me wonders whether A's ownership (of which Billy is a part) is expecting to be in a new stadium in a few years (their lease allows them to vacate with two years' notice), by which time these youngsters will in theory be leading a resurgence.  But, of course, this is what has been said every time the A's start a youth movement.

 

[dylanmarsh]

I suspect Beane's scouting tells him he now has a 2B and SS of the future.  Now he moves Shark to the White Sox for a couple more high-quality pieces and the A's will be well-positioned for the future.  
 

 
I would not be surprised to see a deal centered around Marcus Semien in a Samardzija trade.  He put together a nice September (.273/.333/.485) after getting demoted earlier in the 2014 season and tore-up AAA.

 

[twothousandone]

 
 It netted the A's a one game playoff loss to the eventual AL champs.

And it wasn't a home game (I don't know for sure if that matters in baseball.)
 
It sure does seem that Beane operates the way some here think when valuing players -- he almost always wants to sell high. I have no idea the real truth of the situation, but it's possible Beane simply can't afford to be on the hook for an expensive player in decline. Therefore, he knows guys are going, to he tries to move them when HE says, simply to maximize the future value.
 
Even Shark, is he's moved, seems to support the idea that dollars and baseball assets at risk govern how he operates. Maybe Shark could yield more if he conducted an auction at the trade deadline. But maybe another pitcher is also available. Maybe Shark gets hurt. Maybe he has a bad year. I don't think Beane wants to risk that, so he'll probably trade him the offseason. Doing so saves him dollars and probably increases the total number of baseball assets he has. Even if it's not 2 for 1, he probably gets to showcase another pitcher during the season. He needs to save dollars and spread risk, and he'll make moves to do that. And when he thinks he has a chance, he isn't afraid to make bold moves to maximize that chance.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

 
I would not be surprised to see a deal centered around Marcus Semien in a Samardzija trade.  He put together a nice September (.273/.333/.485) after getting demoted earlier in the 2014 season and tore-up AAA.

This just happened.
 
No matter what Semien does at the major league level in 2015, he's a massive upgrade over the skeleton crew the As put at 2b last year.

 

[dylanmarsh]

This just happened.
 
No matter what Semien does at the major league level in 2015, he's a massive upgrade over the skeleton crew the As put at 2b last year.

 
He's slotted at SS, replacing Punto.  I believe Sogard or Wendle will be at 2B.

 

[soxhop411]

“@FeinsandNYDN: Source: the A’s have traded C Derek Norris to the Padres.”

So the A's are having a fire sale?

 

[MakMan44]

I don't know. Jesse Hahn is a pretty nasty return for Norris. 

 

[E5 Yaz]

Joe Gamba ‏@_joegamba  39m39 minutes ago
@SportsCenter @Buster_ESPN how my A's are looking right now pic.twitter.com/3k0ykX9nsJ

 

[E5 Yaz]

I don't know. Jesse Hahn is a pretty nasty return for Norris. 

 
Oakland will have a 162-man rotation

 

[MakMan44]

 
Oakland will have a 162-man rotation

Don't even need a bullpen

 

[No Guru No Method]

I can almost wrap my head around most of this. Billy Butler tho ? at 3 for 30 ? WTF ?

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

The only way Butler makes sense is if BB thinks he's highly likely to rebound this year.  Helps them compete this year and then Beane flips him next offseason for good value given his low-cost 2 year remaining deal.

 

[nattysez]

Susan Slusser just tweeted that the A's are acquiring Zobrist and Yuni Escobar for a big leaguer and at least 1 minor leaguer.

 

[MakMan44]

So I guess they really were retooling.

 

[MakMan44]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Joelsherman1/status/553978242173251584
I find it pretty funny that the Rays are getting Jaso back. Apparently they're also get the A's top prospect Robertson.

 

[nattysez]

Follow up tweet from Sherman:

So it is Zobrist/Escobar to #Athletics for Jaso, SS prospect Daniel Robertson (reported by @Ken_Rosenthal), OF prospect Boog Powell #Rays

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

So Nick Franklin will most likely start at 2B in TB?  Jaso/Rivera will platoon at C with Jaso getting some time at DH.  
 
Vogt/Phegley becomes the catching tandem in Oaktown?  Marcus Semien to UTIF?  I guess Zobrist could play LF too as they look a little weak there.  Probably move him around a lot.  
 
Interesting trade.  Billy dealing 2 top SS prospects the same year is a big gamble.  

 

[nattysez]

I really cannot see Jaso catching much anymore. He has missed months due to concussions two years in a row.

 

[DanoooME]

Did the Rays deal for Boog Powell for the barbecue?

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Did the Rays deal for Boog Powell for the barbecue?

A different Boog.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=621471#/career/R/hitting/2014/ALL

Interestingly enough, last July he was suspended for 50 games of using an banned substance.

The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball said Powell, an Oakland Athletics Minor League outfielder, received a 50-game suspension without pay after testing positive for an amphetamine in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension is effective immediately.

http://m.milb.com/news/article/2014070783514588/

 

[AB in DC]

So Nick Franklin will most likely start at 2B in TB?  Jaso/Rivera will platoon at C with Jaso getting some time at DH.  
 

 
Just signed Asdrubal Cabrera

 

[dylanmarsh]

A's are now projected as an 85-86 win team with Zobrist and Escobar onboard. That's up from 82 wins pre-trade.

 

[Snoop Soxy Dogg]

So, Escobar to the Nats. He was with the A's for what, 3 days? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24962307/yunel-escobar-is-second-base-help-now-shortstop-protection-later-for-nats
 
 
I have to admit, I have no earthly idea what Billy Beane is doing. I understand he's supposedly playing chess while everybody else is playing checkers, but man, is that a convoluted version of chess, or Mah Jong or something. One thing I do find hilarious are all the writers (e.g. Rosenthal), saying after the Escobar/Zobrist deal that what Billy is doing now made sense to them. I guess they don't fully understand what he's doing either..   

 

[moondog80]

So, Escobar to the Nats. He was with the A's for what, 3 days? http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24962307/yunel-escobar-is-second-base-help-now-shortstop-protection-later-for-nats
 
 
I have to admit, I have no earthly idea what Billy Beane is doing. I understand he's supposedly playing chess while everybody else is playing checkers, but man, is that a convoluted version of chess, or Mah Jong or something. One thing I do find hilarious are all the writers (e.g. Rosenthal), saying after the Escobar/Zobrist deal that what Billy is doing now made sense to them. I guess they don't fully understand what he's doing either..   

 
 
For Tyler Clippard?  Billy Beane has a weird, non-analytic friendly fixation with acquiring "proven closers"; Clippard, Johnson, Foulke, Koch.  I'm sure he's a step ahead of us as usual, just seems odd.

 

[bosockboy]

Next domino maybe Dolittle.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Next domino maybe Dolittle.

 
Doolittle makes less than Clippard. They spun Escobar, they can spin Clippard

 

[nattysez]

Susan Slusser is reporting that Doolittle has a rotator cuff tear and will not be ready to start the year.