Boston Red Sox 2021 Draft Class

TimScribble

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1. Marcelo Mayer** - High School - Shortstop - Signed - $6,664,000
2. Jud Fabian** - College - Outfielder - Unsigned
3. Tyler McDonough** - College - Second Baseman - Signed - $831,100
4. Elmer Rodriguez - High School - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $497,500
5. Nathan Hickey** - College - Catcher - Signed - $1,000,000
6. Daniel McElveny - High School - Shortstop - Signed - $197,500
7. Wyatt Olds - College - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $236,500
8. Hunter Dobbins - College - Right-handed Pitcher - $197,500
9. Tyler Miller - College - Third Baseman - Signed - $160,300
10. Matt Litwicki** - College* - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $47,500
11. Niko Kavadas** - College* - First baseman - Signed - $250,000
12. Christopher Troye - College* - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $125,000
13. Zach Ehrhard - High School - Shortstop - Unsigned
14. Jacob Webb - College* - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $122,000
15. Payton Green** - High School - Shortstop - Unsigned
16. BJ Vela - College - Second baseman - Signed - $125,000
17. Luis Guerrero - College - Right-handed Pitcher - Unsigned
18. Phillip Sikes - College* - Outfielder - Signed - $100,000
19. Tyler Uberstine - College - Right-handed Pitcher - Signed - $100,000
20. Josh Hood - College - Shortstop - Unsigned

Position breakdown:
Position Players: 12 (10 infielders, 2 outfielders)
Pitchers: 8 (all Right-handed pitchers)

School breakdown:
College: 15 (*5 Seniors)
High School: 5

Draft Rankings per Baseball America:
1-200**: 7
201 - NR: 13

Red Sox Bonus Pool Money:
$11,359,600

Remaining Bonus Pool Money:
$2,527,700
 
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Ale Xander

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If the production can match the names, it’s going to be a great class.
 

BaseballJones

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So people who know these things (assuming they're here!): Are we happy with this draft class?
 

oumbi

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I cannot speak for other posters, but I think Bloom did a great job. As was noted by others, last year Bloom brought in middle to good level talent and a good portion of the farm system has similar level talent. Depth did not seem to be a major shortcoming. However, top talent was thin in the Sox system.

It appears to me that with 7 picks being rated in the top 200, and, by overpaying slot early on, Bloom may have added quality to the existing quantity. But I bow to the expertise on this board on this reading.
 

nvalvo

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It seems to me that the time to evaluate the class is when we know who actually signed, although our giant bonus pool gives us a bit more wiggle room than we usually have.

Mayer is pretty exciting, though, and it seems like a few of those late round pitchers had mediocre college careers but participated in the draft league, which makes me wonder if there's something in their pitch profiles that the team is interested in.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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It appears to me that with 7 picks being rated in the top 200, and, by overpaying slot early on, Bloom may have added quality to the existing quantity. But I bow to the expertise on this board on this reading.
Correct me if I’m wrong , but with 30 teams, shouldn’t each team should get approximately 7 of the top 200 players ranked for the draft?
 

jon abbey

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It seems to me that the time to evaluate the class is when we know who actually signed, although our giant bonus pool gives us a bit more wiggle room than we usually have.
Really it’s probably in 3-5 years, if not longer. I know the last few Yankee draft classes look a lot better now, actually playing, than they did on draft day.
 

burstnbloom

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So people who know these things (assuming they're here!): Are we happy with this draft class?
it’s the kind of draft you want if you think the Red Sox farm lacks high end talent. Their first two picks have star upside with varying chances of reaching it. They will both likely get paid a little more than slot so they need to make up for that later in the draft. Usually teams do that by picking senior signs that have little to no chance of making an impact. What bloom did that I like is his likely under slot guys all throw 96. Who knows what happens in the next 5 years. History tells us that if they get 2 mlb players out of this draft it’s a big win. For now, the perceived philosophy is satisfying. Let’s see if it bears fruit.
 

TimScribble

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Correct me if I’m wrong , but with 30 teams, shouldn’t each team should get approximately 7 of the top 200 players ranked for the draft?
Because high school kids have college as negotiation leverage and teams are limited by their bonus pools, it’s not a how many are available game. But instead a how many can you afford game.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Because high school kids have college as negotiation leverage and teams are limited by their bonus pools, it’s not a how many are available game. But instead a how many can you afford game.
That's a great point. A lot of those top 200 kids aren't signing (because college), so teams aren't necessarily drafting them also.
 

jon abbey

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Very few kids go back to college these days, almost everyone signs, but the bigger hole in that is that the rankings aren't as accurate as the team's private evaluations. You just have to look at Nick Yorke, ranked #139 by mlb.com last summer until Chaim took him 17th.
 

TimScribble

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Red Sox: Niko Kavadas, 1B — Calling Kavadas underrated seems odd considering he was one of the best and most successful players in college this year. But he was an 11th-round pick, so he fits the bill. Kavadas has massive power and he draws walks. That’s pretty much the extent of his plus tools, but it’s a very important skill and one that can carry a player all the way to the big leagues. (BB)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-underrated-2021-mlb-draft-pick-we-like-from-all-30-teams/
 

TimScribble

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Very few kids go back to college these days, almost everyone signs, but the bigger hole in that is that the rankings aren't as accurate as the team's private evaluations. You just have to look at Nick Yorke, ranked #139 by mlb.com last summer until Chaim took him 17th.
Kids in the top 10 rounds typically sign. Outside of that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. Add in that players can now make money in college off their likeness.
 

YTF

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Red Sox: Niko Kavadas, 1B — Calling Kavadas underrated seems odd considering he was one of the best and most successful players in college this year. But he was an 11th-round pick, so he fits the bill. Kavadas has massive power and he draws walks. That’s pretty much the extent of his plus tools, but it’s a very important skill and one that can carry a player all the way to the big leagues. (BB)

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/one-underrated-2021-mlb-draft-pick-we-like-from-all-30-teams/
This is true and putting in the time and effort to make himself a good defender while he continues to hone his batting skills is what will keep him in the big leagues. Out of all of the guys that the Sox drafted, I think Kavadas' development is the one I'm most looking forward to watching.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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This is true and putting in the time and effort to make himself a good defender while he continues to hone his batting skills is what will keep him in the big leagues. Out of all of the guys that the Sox drafted, I think Kavadas' development is the one I'm most looking forward to watching.
I'm high on Niko cause he's come a long way as a hitter but I hope he has a lot of time and a lot of effort and never attempts to play 3B again:


But it's fun to see him take some reps at Fenway!
 

Cesar Crespo

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Kids in the top 10 rounds typically sign. Outside of that, it’s a bit of a crapshoot. Add in that players can now make money in college off their likeness.
Do college baseball players make any money off their likeness?

As far as I can tell, there hasn't been an NCAA college baseball game since EA made 2 in 06 and 07 after losing the MLB license. They gave up on the series after incredibly poor sales.
 

canderson

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Very few kids go back to college these days, almost everyone signs, but the bigger hole in that is that the rankings aren't as accurate as the team's private evaluations. You just have to look at Nick Yorke, ranked #139 by mlb.com last summer until Chaim took him 17th.
The NLI is going to throw a kink into who signs and who goes/stays in college, too
 

Jimbodandy

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Do college baseball players make any money off their likeness?
They won't be fighting with Duke hoopers for signature shoe deals, but there will be money for a lot of guys. Car dealership openings, baseball camps, signings, etc. Doubt it factors into a lot of guys' thinking.
 

TimScribble

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They won't be fighting with Duke hoopers for signature shoe deals, but there will be money for a lot of guys. Car dealership openings, baseball camps, signings, etc. Doubt it factors into a lot of guys' thinking.
This!

Miami’s football team all just got NLI deals from a gym where the guy is a big fan of the team.
 

Cesar Crespo

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This!

Miami’s football team all just got NLI deals from a gym where the guy is a big fan of the team.
I think it's pretty obvious a lot of the football and basketball players will make money off their likeness. I'd also guess the average NCAA baseball player is far better off financially so it's less of a deal.

Is college baseball an extremely regional thing? Like college hockey?
 

TimScribble

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I think it's pretty obvious a lot of the football and basketball players will make money off their likeness. I'd also guess the average NCAA baseball player is far better off financially so it's less of a deal.

Is college baseball an extremely regional thing? Like college hockey?
I’m honestly not a great resource for that question as I’ve lived in the south my entire life. I can’t speak to other regions. But baseball in the south is big, not football big, but enough for some players to make some money. Especially in the SEC.
 

Cesar Crespo

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11th round baseball picks? How much can they make in college and start their pro career 3 years later?
Right. That's some deep depth.

I wonder if the gamble for a few extra million by improving your draft stock is worth delaying your career for 3 years.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Right. That's some deep depth.

I wonder if the gamble for a few extra million by improving your draft stock is worth delaying your career for 3 years.
I am sure there are stats that show average career earnings for HS draft choices who sign vs. 3 and 4 year college kids. Likely broken down by round those HS kids were drafted.
 

TimScribble

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Niko wasn’t someone I would question. I think he’ll get a couple $100k and sign. But someone like Payton Green, Boston most likely won’t have enough to meet the demand.
 

nvalvo

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11th round baseball picks? How much can they make in college and start their pro career 3 years later?
To your point, 11th rounders are kind of a weird thing: they are often overslot, because they are the first round after the end of the slotting system. If they sign — and most do! — 11th rounders tend to get bonuses roughly on par with 6th rounders. It's the late second day picks where teams are incentivized to pick College Seniors and other players who will take low bonuses.

Here are the average bonuses by round from the first 15 rounds of the 2019 draft among signed players:

1st $3,489,000
2nd $1,213,000
3rd $838,000
4th $472,000
5th $388,000
6th $268,000
7th $182,000
8th $166,000
9th $121,000
10th $50,000
11th $242,000
12th $209,000
13th $154,000
14th $128,000
15th $106,000
etc.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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To your point, 11th rounders are kind of a weird thing: they are often overslot, because they are the first round after the end of the slotting system. If they sign — and most do! — 11th rounders tend to get bonuses roughly on par with 6th rounders. It's the late second day picks where teams are incentivized to pick College Seniors and other players who will take low bonuses.

Here are the average bonuses by round from the first 15 rounds of the 2019 draft among signed players:

1st $3,489,000
2nd $1,213,000
3rd $838,000
4th $472,000
5th $388,000
6th $268,000
7th $182,000
8th $166,000
9th $121,000
10th $50,000
11th $242,000
12th $209,000
13th $154,000
14th $128,000
15th $106,000
etc.
Very cool info!
 

Yo La Tengo

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Henry Davis signs for $6.5 million. I saw the projected number for the top pick at $8,415,300. Fourth pick is slotted at $6,664,000. Predictions for the number Mayer gets? It will be interesting to see how that ~$2 million difference for the #1 pick gets spread around.
 

Sin Duda

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TimScribble, thanks for starting and maintaining this thread. With Boston picking 4th, it's the first time I've been keenly interested in the MLB draft and look forward to these kids signing and starting their professional careers. Can you add a "Remaining bonus pool money" line item? Also, does your current line item reflect the 5% overage allowance?
 

TimScribble

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TimScribble, thanks for starting and maintaining this thread. With Boston picking 4th, it's the first time I've been keenly interested in the MLB draft and look forward to these kids signing and starting their professional careers. Can you add a "Remaining bonus pool money" line item? Also, does your current line item reflect the 5% overage allowance?
I had planned on doing some type of remaining balance once the signings start. I’ve only seen the one so far, so I haven’t started the ledger yet.The pool amount shown does not reflect the 5% overage but is instead their assigned amount.
 

ZMart100

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Henry Davis signs for $6.5 million. I saw the projected number for the top pick at $8,415,300. Fourth pick is slotted at $6,664,000. Predictions for the number Mayer gets? It will be interesting to see how that ~$2 million difference for the #1 pick gets spread around.
My guess is Mayer takes slot.
 

Sin Duda

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Maybe something like this?

Red Sox Bonus Pool Money:
$11,359,600; +5%: $11,927,580.
Remaining: $11,212,100; +5%: $11,800,080
(I did the math in my head, so it may be off).
 

OCD SS

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I think the expectation is that Mayer wouldn't give up a huge discount, but the assumption has always been that the top picks include a bit extra to spread around the draft. As Niastri points out, the Sox can sign him the 4 pick slot and still give him more than Davis got (although I wouldn't be surprised if he wants to get more than Lieter gets from Texas).
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Maybe he’s referring to the bidding war to get the chance to negotiate? It was purely based on breaking records (seemingly).
Maybe. It wasn’t really a bidding war per se. I’m pretty sure that the Japanese team posted the player and each team had one chance to submit a bid for his rights.