Boston Red Sox 2021 Draft Class

sean1562

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Right. That's some deep depth.

I wonder if the gamble for a few extra million by improving your draft stock is worth delaying your career for 3 years.
Realistically a lot of these guys careers are going to be spent entirely in A/AA and be over by the time they are 24, no? The signing bonus money will be gone by the time they are washed up and they don't have a college degree. Instead of hanging out with kids your own age, being a baseball star in a college town, you are living in some family's basement in Roanoke, VA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Realistically a lot of these guys careers are going to be spent entirely in A/AA and be over by the time they are 24, no? The signing bonus money will be gone by the time they are washed up and they don't have a college degree. Instead of hanging out with kids your own age, being a baseball star in a college town, you are living in some family's basement in Roanoke, VA.
This is fair but if you actually do make the show, you are probably going to make far more in the MLB because you'll be approaching FA before you are 30.

They did just shrink the minors and give all the players raises but the salaries are still really pathetic. There's another thread for that though.
 

jeff_moffett

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Realistically a lot of these guys careers are going to be spent entirely in A/AA and be over by the time they are 24, no? The signing bonus money will be gone by the time they are washed up and they don't have a college degree. Instead of hanging out with kids your own age, being a baseball star in a college town, you are living in some family's basement in Roanoke, VA.
The sad but real truth… likely they’ll be 26, married with two kids and have a MLB scholarship they can’t afford to use as they only have five years after they’re done to complete their degree. The wife and kids have to eat, so full time school isn’t an option.

Go to college for three years, get close and take on line classes while you’re in the minors. If you don’t develop, you’re already on your way to the degree. If you do, you’re that much more developed and can finish the degree much easier.

baseball is a pyramid and it gets real steep at this level
 

simplicio

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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I heard Callis on some talk show today and he said that according to his sources, the Os went underslot at #5 so they could pick Fabian at #41.

FWIW.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Keith Law calls Mayer our new top prospect over Duran, with an interesting take at the end:
"Were it not for Mayer, Boston’s best prospect now might be resurgent left-hander Jay Groome, who has come back from two lost years after Tommy John surgery and a tough start to 2021 to strike out 53 in 36 1/3 innings since the start of June with 14 walks."

https://theathletic.com/2714763/2021/07/19/law-which-teams-just-drafted-their-new-no-1-prospects?source=user-shared-article
This needs more attention.... I was about to write off Groome after his rough start to this season...

EDIT- more on topic, and what I was initially coming here to post, was about the International Draft. I don't quite understand how the national draft and that one are connected with draft pool money and likelihood of draftees making it to a ML career from each draft. I'm not even sure how to phrase my question actually....
 

Cesar Crespo

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This needs more attention.... I was about to write off Groome after his rough start to this season...

EDIT- more on topic, and what I was initially coming here to post, was about the International Draft. I don't quite understand how the national draft and that one are connected with draft pool money and likelihood of draftees making it to a ML career from each draft. I'm not even sure how to phrase my question actually....
Here's an answer to the question you aren't sure how to ask... I think.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-international-signing-period-top-players-including-yoelkis-cespedes-and-everything-else-to-know/
 

phenweigh

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20. Josh Hood - College - Shortstop - Unsigned
I went to a Cape Cod League game Tuesday night and took note that the 3B for Harwich had a cannon arm and made a super slick diving play as well. I just looked through this thread and saw that the Sox 20th pick was the one player from that game whose name I remembered! He's not hitting much, and a little research indicates he didn't play college ball this year. I'm guessing it's because he transferred from U Penn to NC State and wasn't eligible. So it's understandable that his hit tool would be rusty alongside my guess that Cape League pitchers are tougher than what he saw in the Ivy League. He has put up good hitting numbers in the Coastal Plains league, which a little research seems similar to the Cape Cod league. It'll be interesting to see if he signs.
 

TimScribble

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I think the remaining names that will take the most money to sign:
Jud Fabian
Payton Green
Niko Kavadas.
 

TimScribble

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I think the remaining names that will take the most money to sign:
Jud Fabian
Payton Green
Niko Kavadas.
I forgot Hickey as well. I think he’ll be over slot. I suspect Green goes to college. Kavadas probably goes for around slot ($125k, but could push for more).
 

TapeAndPosts

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@ElNuevoDia learned that the young Puerto Rican pitcher Elmer Rodríguez agreed to a bonus of $ 500,000 with the @RedSoxBeisbol following his selection in the 4th round in the last MLB rookie draft. His turn was worth $ 554,300.
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit making jokes about glue.

Sox seem to be doing pretty well signing their guys. Of course signing Mayer is nice enough that feels like a successful draft all by itself, but they are doing well nailing down many of their other picks as well. Has there been a single peep about Fabian?
 

TapeAndPosts

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Seems like everyone so far has been at or under slot, is that right? Looking at your numbers in the first post, Sox seem to have enough left over to go a bit overslot with those guys if they want to (Fabian slot being $1,856,700 and Hickey $410,100, and $2,956,700 left in the bonus pool‚ though I guess there are a few guys who have been signed but we don't know their bonuses yet).

PS Thanks @TimScribble for all the info and updates, for all of us who don't always follow the draft this closely it's been really nice!
 

TimScribble

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You’re right. No over slot signings yet. I’d expect Fabian, Hickey, and Kavadas all to be over. I don’t expect Green to sign and wouldn’t shock me if Ehrhard doesn’t either.
 

amfox1

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1 Marcelo Mayer $6,640,000
2 Jud Fabian (slot $1,856,700)
3 Tyler McDonough $828,600
4 Elmer Rodriguez $497,500
5 Nathan Hickey (slot $410,100)
6 Daniel McElveny $197,500
7 Wyatt Olds $236,500
8 Hunter Dobbins $197,500
9 Tyler Miller $157,800
10 Matt Litwicki $47,500 (signing bonuses per BA website)
Total: $8,802,900

None of the bonuses after round 10 count against the cap, thus far.

Cap: $11,359,600 ($9,092,800 without Fabian and Hickey)
Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 ($9,547,440 without Fabian and Hickey)

So, really it's $2.55mm to use on signings without going over the cap (and assuming both Fabian and Hickey are signed) and $3.1mm if they exceed the cap but don't exceed the cap+5% (and assuming both Fabian and Hickey are signed). If either/both of Fabian and Hickey are not signed, their slot/slot+5% comes off the cap and cap+5% numbers (see above).

I'd expect the Red Sox to go up to cap+5% and, therefore, would expect Fabian at $2.25mm, Hickey at $750k and Kavadas at $200k ($75k toward cap). No other players signed. If neither Fabian or Hickey sign, the Red Sox would have approx. $750k to sign Kavadas ++, although I'd still not expect anyone other than Kavadas to be signed.

EDIT: If Fabian wants $2.5mm-$2.7mm to sign, the Red Sox could either (A) sign Kavadas and Hickey and roll the Fabian pick to 2022 or (B) sign Fabian and let Hickey go back to school (they cannot roll the pick to 2022).
 
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amfox1

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EDIT: If Fabian wants $2.5mm-$2.7mm to sign, the Red Sox could either (A) sign Kavadas and Hickey and roll the Fabian pick to 2022 or (B) sign Fabian and let Hickey go back to school (they cannot roll the pick to 2022).
Obviously, at $3mm (per Gammo's tweet), it's impossible to sign Fabian. The numbers simply don't work.

Cap: $11,359,600 ($9,502,900 without Fabian)
Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 ($9,978,045 without Fabian)

With the Red Sox currently at $8,802,900 ($1,175,145 below cap+5% without Fabian), they could give Hickey $800k and Kavadas $200k ($75k toward cap). Not enough to sign any of the others, likely.
 

OCD SS

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Fabian was always going to require over slot to sign, losing his bonus pool isn’t really a drag on the overall draft other than the lost time. Sign everyone else you can, and offer him every last cent you can, and if he turns them down, take the pick next year and wish him luck cutting down on his K-rate as a senior. It’s just too bad Green is also likely off the table, but after signing Mayer Chaim is playing with house money.
 

simplicio

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If Fabian bails, is the money they were earmarking to overslot him enough to sway Green?
 

JimD

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I admire Fabian's confidence that he can go back and spend another year in college and regain his spot at the top of the draft boards and the money that comes with being a high draft pick. The argument could also be made that he should sign with the Sox, get into professional baseball now instead of waiting one more year, and use that same confidence in himself to reach the majors a year earlier.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I admire Fabian's confidence that he can go back and spend another year in college and regain his spot at the top of the draft boards and the money that comes with being a high draft pick. The argument could also be made that he should sign with the Sox, get into professional baseball now instead of waiting one more year, and use that same confidence in himself to reach the majors a year earlier.
We're talking a max of $4-5M additional bonus money between what he can get now versus what he could conceivably get if he is drafted higher next year. If he's confident he can do that, he should be confident that he's going to get to the big leagues and succeed, which could yield many more millions. Seems like the less risky of his two options to take the $1.8M now with the possibility of more earnings in the future versus holding out another year for a bigger draft bonus but risking ending up with less or nothing if he has a bad year or gets hurt.

Like you say, admirable self-confidence. Hope it works out for him.
 

lexrageorge

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We're talking a max of $4-5M additional bonus money between what he can get now versus what he could conceivably get if he is drafted higher next year. If he's confident he can do that, he should be confident that he's going to get to the big leagues and succeed, which could yield many more millions. Seems like the less risky of his two options to take the $1.8M now with the possibility of more earnings in the future versus holding out another year for a bigger draft bonus but risking ending up with less or nothing if he has a bad year or gets hurt.

Like you say, admirable self-confidence. Hope it works out for him.
Part of his calculus may be that he has a decent shot of getting at least some of that extra $4M by waiting a year. Whereas if he signs now, it could easily be 5 or more combined years of toiling in the minors and pre-arb major league seasons before he makes that $4M. The downside risk seems considerable, especially has he could probably get over $2M by signing now.
 

sean1562

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Also, loads of top draft prospects never even touch the big leagues. "I can definitely return to Florida and improve on last season, which should vault me into the top 10 and get me an additional 2 to 4 million dollars(!!!!)" is a much different statement than "I am definitely going to make it to the big leagues and be a star even though every scouting report on me has me as a high risk prospect". Didn't he start to improve towards the end of the season?
 

amfox1

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Also, loads of top draft prospects never even touch the big leagues. "I can definitely return to Florida and improve on last season, which should vault me into the top 10 and get me an additional 2 to 4 million dollars(!!!!)" is a much different statement than "I am definitely going to make it to the big leagues and be a star even though every scouting report on me has me as a high risk prospect". Didn't he start to improve towards the end of the season?
Bad start, improved middle, less good ending. And he reportedly was willing to take $3mm from BAL in the #41 slot, so he's betting on himself for an additional $750k-$1mm, tops (I'm assuming the Red Sox are offering $2-$2.25mm).
 

OCD SS

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On the Chin Music draft recap show Goldstein & Longenhaggen pushed back on the “bet on himself & improved his draft position by going back to school” narrative by also pointing out college kids who really slid down from their offers out of high school.
 

JimD

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Fabian strikes me as a good bet at the right deal, but too risky to overpay for. Given that the pick is protected, I wouldn't be terribly disappointed if he goes back to school and the Sox roll the pick to next year and try again.
 
Jul 21, 2005
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As I stated on draft day, Sox blew it by not taking a calculated risk with selecting LSU SP Jaden Hill with 40th pick. He signed for under 40th pick slot value , which would have allowed Sox to over pay Hickey and others. If he fully recovers, Hill was projected at beginning of this year as one of best 3 starting pitchers in this draft, projected ceiling as #1/2 starting pitcher.

Hill officially signed with the Rockies for a $1,689,500 signing bonus at the full pick value. Now he's ready to prove that the arm trouble that took away different parts of his time at LSU, and led to Tommy John surgery this spring, were just speed bumps on his road to a professional career.
 

nighthob

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I actually wanted Josh Baez at #40, he probably would have signed below slot to play for his favorite team, and freed up cash to use elsewhere. Oh well.
 

tdaignault

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Still a year early to say they blew it. A second rounder next year, assuming things open up a bit more in the spring, may be more valuable from a scouting perspective because teams will have more opportunities to evaluate. Time will tell.