Boston Red Sox 2021 Draft Class

Jul 21, 2005
24
Wilton, CT
Still a year early to say they blew it. A second rounder next year, assuming things open up a bit more in the spring, may be more valuable from a scouting perspective because teams will have more opportunities to evaluate. Time will tell.
You make a valid point that no one really knows the ultimate impact of any drafted player. I don't. You're also correct that scouts will hopefully be able to more closely follow prospects next spring that leads to better picks. However, with the 2021 Red Sox success, what are the chances the Sox could draft a "top 3" starting pitching prospect with their late 1st round pick, let alone their later round 2 comp pick?? We can only follow how Jaden Hill recovers from TJ surgery and his ultimate impact in 4-5 years. It was a calculated risk I would have taken with the 40th pick.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Jun 26, 2006
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So do we basically just get the 4th pick in next years 2nd round in addition to our own 2nd rounder? Or is it tucked in somewhere else?
 

Merkle's Boner

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Apr 24, 2011
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I still can’t believe Fabian turns down $2 million to spend a year in Gainesville. Negotiating tactics.
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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Is Fabian seeking $3 million? Just curious why the Sox wouldn't pay him. Is he not worth that amount?
The Red Sox can only spend a certain amount, see previous post by amfox, before losing a future draft pick. Also, if Fabian wants too much, they can’t sign Hickey. Also, $3M is pretty steep for his past year’s performance.
 
Feb 6, 2018
1,996
Florida
The Red Sox can only spend a certain amount, see previous post by amfox, before losing a future draft pick. Also, if Fabian wants too much, they can’t sign Hickey. Also, $3M is pretty steep for his past year’s performance.
Thanks. Is this part of the reason why he fell because teams were worried he will command more than what they could spend?
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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Thanks. Is this part of the reason why he fell because teams were worried he will command more than what they could spend?
He was expected be a top 10 pick. Started out the year with an over 30% K rate. Got it down to around 25%. Lots of concerns about that drove him down the boards. If he goes back, he’s banking on improving that and getting drafted higher next year.
 

tdaignault

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Jul 27, 2005
4
He was expected be a top 10 pick. Started out the year with an over 30% K rate. Got it down to around 25%. Lots of concerns about that drove him down the boards. If he goes back, he’s banking on improving that and getting drafted higher next year.
I wonder if the new NIL rules for NCAA athletes plays a role in his decision. As one of the best returning players at an SEC, I am sure he can now make some extra cash. Granted, it's nothing like football players will make, but Fabian will have a lot more name recognition than most college baseball players.

It will be interesting to see this dynamic moving forward. Top high school baseball players can now choose to go to college AND get paid. The top JUNIOR high school football QB is strongly considering graduating a year early to go to college so he can get paid. Some are expecting him to make 7 figures. He can't get paid while in high school.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Nov 29, 2005
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I wonder if the new NIL rules for NCAA athletes plays a role in his decision. As one of the best returning players at an SEC, I am sure he can now make some extra cash. Granted, it's nothing like football players will make, but Fabian will have a lot more name recognition than most college baseball players.

It will be interesting to see this dynamic moving forward. Top high school baseball players can now choose to go to college AND get paid. The top JUNIOR high school football QB is strongly considering graduating a year early to go to college so he can get paid. Some are expecting him to make 7 figures. He can't get paid while in high school.
I think that is a great point, and may be interesting to track going forward.
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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So if Green has signed as listed, Fabian is as good as signed, or the Sox are giving up a pick?
Sorry, I might not be following. Green hasn’t signed. He’s the HS SS drafted after the 10th round, he’s got first round potential. If the Sox can’t sign Fabian, they lose his pool money and can’t shift it to Green.
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
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Not ideal losing Fabian but no 41 next year in a likely more predictable draft (slightly) isn’t nothing. Huge risk for Fabian though. I hope it works out for him.
 

amfox1

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Aug 6, 2003
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1 Marcelo Mayer $6,640,000
3 Tyler McDonough $828,600
4 Elmer Rodriguez $497,500
5 Nathan Hickey $997,500 est
6 Daniel McElveny $197,500
7 Wyatt Olds $236,500
8 Hunter Dobbins $197,500
9 Tyler Miller $157,800
10 Matt Litwicki $47,500 (signing bonuses per BA website)
11 Niko Kavadas $122,500 est against cap

Total: $9,922,900

None of the bonuses after round 11 count against the cap, thus far.

Cap: $9,502,900 without Fabian
Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $9,978,045 without Fabian

Based on the above numbers, the Red Sox have $55,145 remaining under the cap+5%. Guerrero may be getting this; he is reportedly signing today also.
 

Sox Puppet

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FWIW, this is only tangentially related to the Sox' draft, but I thought it was worth posting anyway. The Mets, after examining Kumar Rocker's medicals, have decided not to sign him at all. I don't know if Rocker was ever seriously a consideration for us (mock drafts aside), especially once Marcelo Mayer became available, but it looks like we dodged a bullet. I feel bad for the kid, though. There was a time that he was pretty much the consensus #1 pick.
 

brandonchristensen

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I don’t follow baseball drafts enough - but man, passing on ~$2M sounds crazy to me. In this day and age, that kind of money could set you up for life. I will definitely watch what happens next year for him.
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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He was predicted at the start of the year as a potential top 5 player. So roughly 3.5 - 4 million difference. On the flip side, if he goes back and repeats this year. He’ll probably fall further.
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
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FWIW, this is only tangentially related to the Sox' draft, but I thought it was worth posting anyway. The Mets, after examining Kumar Rocker's medicals, have decided not to sign him at all. I don't know if Rocker was ever seriously a consideration for us (mock drafts aside), especially once Marcelo Mayer became available, but it looks like we dodged a bullet. I feel bad for the kid, though. There was a time that he was pretty much the consensus #1 pick.
Whoa. I think some teams had a clue and were cooling on him. Just based on the stats and what I saw I really couldn't understand how he fell so far and why evaluators were so much higher on other pitchers in the draft. He went from having an agreement for 6 million to now looking at maybe signing up with an independent league or going back to school, likely with a significant injury. That's tough, I feel for the kid.

I posted some links in the draft thread - one from fangraphs I think - where evaluators were talking about his arm slot going down last year and attributing it to an intentional mechanical tweak. I wonder if that was actually injury related now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don’t follow baseball drafts enough - but man, passing on ~$2M sounds crazy to me. In this day and age, that kind of money could set you up for life. I will definitely watch what happens next year for him.
It’s also one less year of potential prime earning. He gets drafted again next summer, turns 22 a couple months later, and is probably looking at an age 24 arrival give or take, and around 30 by the time he gets his crack at free agency. I know that’s the name of the game as a college player but in his shoes I’m taking the deal and trying to reach the bigs ASAP.
 

Granite Sox

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Feb 6, 2003
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Going back to TimScribble's initial post in this thread, the final tale of the tape shows that the Sox signed 16 of 20 2021 draftees.

Of note (but perhaps not necessarily surprising at the end of the day?), the Sox drafted four shortstops. Outside of Mayer, the other three shortstops comprise three of the four unsigned draftees, along with Fabian.

It feels like the system could use some additional premium infield/SS talent, though I seem to recall that 1-2 of the most recent international signees were SS as well.

Edit:
  • Luis Ravelo, SS from DR, $525,000. Listed as a RHH, but his Perfect Game writeup ... talks about switch hitting. From January 2021
 
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koufax37

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Jul 20, 2005
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It’s also one less year of potential prime earning. He gets drafted again next summer, turns 22 a couple months later, and is probably looking at an age 24 arrival give or take, and around 30 by the time he gets his crack at free agency. I know that’s the name of the game as a college player but in his shoes I’m taking the deal and trying to reach the bigs ASAP.
Completely agree, with complicated age shifting as an argument I made years ago against the Cubs manipulating Kris Bryant's service time.

Betting on himself is a double edged sword. If you think you are good enough to dominate in the spring and get back to a top 10 pick to get more money as a soon to be 22 year old senior, then you are missing the bet on yourself that tearing up single-A this spring accelerates your arrival in the majors and you might get to 10M sooner and earn more in your 20s. And the downside if something goes wrong the impact of going from 1.8 to something lower is more life changing than doubling down on the signing bonus upside, and the things that caused him to fall this year also present a realistic threat to him making it to payday #2 (first arrb year after several MLB seasons).

I don't know the kid, the background, or how realistic it is for him to do better by going back to college, but I think in general there are some pieces missing from the full game theory in these decision making processes. I wish the player well, and on to scouting who we take with the #30 (WS winner) and #41 (compensation) picks next year. Might finally be able to get Rocker...
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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It’s also one less year of potential prime earning. He gets drafted again next summer, turns 22 a couple months later, and is probably looking at an age 24 arrival give or take, and around 30 by the time he gets his crack at free agency. I know that’s the name of the game as a college player but in his shoes I’m taking the deal and trying to reach the bigs ASAP.

Exactly. Turning down guaranteed money, losing a precious year of earning power, and possibly setting the FA clock back a year. If Boras truly has the player's best interest in heart, and only those interests (i.e., not using the kid as a pawn in some larger battle that will ultimately mean more $ for Boras but not Rocker), it's hard to imagine a cost/benefit calculus where this is the right move. It did work for JD Drew, but that was when the draft had no spending controls.

For those who are unfamiliar, the story of Matt Harrington is a sad one. If this is what happens to Rocker, is Boras going to say "tough luck kid, sometimes it works out this way" and go back to his mansion?

http://www.espn.com/espn/eticket/story?page=090423/harrington
 

Niastri

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I feel bad for a young player who gets sucked up into Boras's Grand Scheme to improve agents' (and players,btw) future money making ability. I wonder if Boras at least looks out for the kids future, maybe with a forgivable loan equal to the amount of the foregone signing bonus...? Like, the kid has to pay back the agent if the strategy works, but if the young player gets screwed over pursuing the Grand Scheme, he gets to keep the money.

Hmm, probably not. "Tough luck kid... At least you helped a future player get paid. Oh, and I'm representing him too. Thanks again for your sacrifice."
 

koufax37

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Jul 20, 2005
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No way Rocker will last to #30 next year. Ainge is gonna have to package those two picks and move up into the lottery.
Not exactly expecting or wishing for Rocker to be our pick. It was just a reference to the uncertainty of future draft position and how things can change.

From #1 lock to #10 unsigned to potential surgery and the unknown. Great player and I hope he gets back to being healthy and goes much higher than #30, because the player who would fall to #30 isn't the player we were dreaming of 12 months ago.
 

moondog80

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Sep 20, 2005
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Hmm, probably not. "Tough luck kid... At least you helped a future player get paid. Oh, and I'm representing him too. Thanks again for your sacrifice."
I want agent who, when it comes to my negotiation, is representing me and only me. Taking one for the team won't make me feel better when I'm broke.

If I am compensated for my willingness to be the sacrificial lamb, that changes the equation.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
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I can kind of understand Fabian's position - there is significant risk, but if he goes back to school and improves, he's a surefire first-round pick next year. Rocker's gambit doesn't make as much sense - unless there are teams ready and willing to eclipse the Mets offer, I'm not sure what he's going to prove in independent ball that scouts haven't already seen in the SEC.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I can kind of understand Fabian's position - there is significant risk, but if he goes back to school and improves, he's a surefire first-round pick next year. Rocker's gambit doesn't make as much sense - unless there are teams ready and willing to eclipse the Mets offer, I'm not sure what he's going to prove in independent ball that scouts haven't already seen in the SEC.
Is Rocker's situation really a gambit? Is it his fault that the Mets drafted him and then decided to not even make him an offer?

Unless you mean his decision to play independent ball rather than go back to Vanderbilt. Seems the only risk there is Vandy probably has better facilities and coaching he can avail himself of than he's going to find with some Frontier League team.
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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If the physical revealed a major issue, then the Mets aren’t at fault for not offering. But if Boras wanted a way over slot deal, the Mets could have just declared that their reason. It’s an interesting discussion.
 
Aug 3, 2014
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My understanding was that Rocker had an agreement in place with the Mets, that they decided to adjust after reviewing medical records. I am more in Rocker's corner on this one.