Boston’s taxing pursuit of Juan Soto is over. (Mets)

TapeAndPosts

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Now, I'm just a guy on the internet, but "Yankees FO believe they’ve sent the message and put their best foot forward" does not sound like it's brimming with confidence.
 

simplicio

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Sounds like loser talk to me.

I don't think the MFY have the stomach to pay 110% taxes on his contract in the near term, honestly.
 

BigSoxFan

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I agree.... but Fried would be smart to allow Soto to sign so that those who missed out will know they have money to spend and might result in a better deal for him.
Yeah, I’m near 100% certain that’s exactly what Boras’ Burnes strategy is based on. The losers will pivot to the best SP and there will be added pressure to deliver something sellable quickly.
 

Pitt the Elder

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Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:

"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
"One time, I saw this Twitter hack sharing a Soto take. I was like, 'Dude, you have to wait!'"
 

E5 Yaz

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Worry that this is all a ploy to extract more from the Yankees.
That's not the concern. The worry is that if they don't get Soto, they won't go shopping for other top-tier free agents, and just say that Soto was a special case.
 

mr_smith02

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That's not the concern. The worry is that if they don't get Soto, they won't go shopping for other top-tier free agents, and just say that Soto was a special case.
I am worried they’ll sign Soto and say that’s all they could afford this offseason. Soto is a special player, but he doesn’t fill all the holes on the Red Sox’ roster.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I don’t understand some of these reports saying he will get more than Ohtani’s 700M. Soto is awesome, but he’s not better than Ohtani, and he can’t pitch, so why would he get more than $700M?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I don’t understand some of these reports saying he will get more than Ohtani’s 700M. Soto is awesome, but he’s not better than Ohtani, and he can’t pitch, so why would he get more than $700M?
Soto is going to get more years since he's four years younger than Ohtani. And Ohtani didn't get 700M. Because of the deferrals, his deal is worth 460M. At the same AAV, Soto can get close to 700M just with the extra years.
 

johnlos

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Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:

"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
that's surprisingly good (and I use chatGPT every day). it gets Mitch.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
 

rajendra82

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I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....
 

E5 Yaz

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I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
Hey Juan, give us some of that money back? Just give him a piece of the action
 

radsoxfan

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Soto is going to get more years since he's four years younger than Ohtani. And Ohtani didn't get 700M. Because of the deferrals, his deal is worth 460M. At the same AAV, Soto can get close to 700M just with the extra years.
Isn't it incredible how many people think "Ohtani got 700M?"

Soto will beat Ohtani's 460M total value because he is much younger as you pointed out. Plus, I'm sure the Ohtani pitching angle was not counted on significantly.

I am more hesitant about Soto's long term value than some here though. Even with his elite bat, he is not a good OF and soon will be a DH. It's going to be tough to count on him for 5-6 WAR per season past his prime (and this contract will likely include a lot of post prime seasons).
 

nighthob

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A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....
If you'd written A politician, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ... the punchline could have been "Which one do you shoot last?" Major fail.
 

chrisfont9

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I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
Does the CBA have rules about side deals?
 

BigSoxFan

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Isn't it incredible how many people think "Ohtani got 700M?"

Soto will beat Ohtani's 460M total value because he is much younger as you pointed out. Plus, I'm sure the Ohtani pitching angle was not counted on significantly.

I am more hesitant about Soto's long term value than some here though. Even with his elite bat, he is not a good OF and soon will be a DH. It's going to be tough to count on him for 5-6 WAR per season past his prime (and this contract will likely include a lot of post prime seasons).
Why would he need to be a DH soon? Manny, a reasonable Soto comp, played OF into his late 30s. Stick him in LF to mitigate whatever concerns are there with his defense. Given his hitting profile, I don’t really have any concerns with his bat for a while and I’d gladly pay a premium to lock in the near certainty of an impact bat for the next decade.
 

radsoxfan

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Why would he need to be a DH soon? Manny, a reasonable Soto comp, played OF into his late 30s. Stick him in LF to mitigate whatever concerns are there with his defense. Given his hitting profile, I don’t really have any concerns with his bat for a while and I’d gladly pay a premium to lock in the near certainty of an impact bat for the next decade.
OK sure, he can play a bad LF in Fenway like Manny.

He is either going to be a bad defender or a DH. It's not the end of the world given the bat of course, but I'm not sure everyone is fully accounting for the significant negative on that side of the ball (given the #s being thrown around).

Not my money, yada yada, and I agree for the most part. I'll be stoked if we sign him, but the risk here is real.
 

BigSoxFan

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OK sure, he can play a bad LF in Fenway like Manny.

He is either going to be a bad defender or a DH. It's not the end of the world given the bat of course, but I'm not sure everyone is fully accounting for the significant negative on that side of the ball (given the #s being thrown around).

Not my money, yada yada, and I agree for the most part. I'll be stoked if we sign him, but the risk here is real.
I think we’re all probably using different discount rates for defense. It’s clearly important but some of the issues can be partially mitigated by a move back to LF and having strong OF defense at CF/RF. Obviously, not easy to snap your fingers and find that but I like the near-term options along with Montgomery’s long-term potential. And I’m well aware that Soto would have some WTF moments out there.

Ultimately, for me, the poor defense is the cost of doing business here. Let’s say he gets a 14 year deal. I’d estimate the first 6-7 years to be as a 4-8 WAR franchise cornerstone type impact. The back end would likely have some waste but, again, that’s baked into the analysis.

The park is perfect for him. The team should have a strong lineup to support him. And the only question is how do you make the pitching good enough with a $50M AAV for Soto. Obviously, spending more is likely the answer here so I would assume a Soto signing would constitute a renewed commitment from ownership to spend beyond the levels of recent years with the occasional luxury tax reset.
 

Yaz4Ever

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Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:

"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
I needed this. I miss that Mitch. The one on X, meh not so much.
 

Cassvt2023

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I am worried they’ll sign Soto and say that’s all they could afford this offseason. Soto is a special player, but he doesn’t fill all the holes on the Red Sox’ roster.
I'm not. If they sign him, they have Soto, Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela, Refsnyder and possibly Campbell all to play OF. If they sign him (25% chance at this point?) someone is getting traded for pitching.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I tend to doubt that the Yankees have brought in their closer yet, but once Capobianco pitches Soto on 12 years where he and his buddies will be protecting the RF wall for him, Juan will be putting pen to paper.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not. If they sign him, they have Soto, Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela, Refsnyder and possibly Campbell all to play OF. If they sign him (25% chance at this point?) someone is getting traded for pitching.
If they sign Soto, I actually shift to wanting to deal Duran, Yoshida and a mid-tier prospect to Seattle for one of their top 2 guys and I think they'd have to bite on that. It would sort of toss Anthony into a CF role with Rafaela but would also allow for another season of easing Abreu in against LHP in RF and to see if Rafaela can improve his plate discipline some... would make a flexible OF with possibly Montgomery being ready to take Abreu's spot if he can't adjust.
 

Steve Dillard

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The closest we have to actual facts is Heyman, reporting Boras' position.
“I would say we’re only perhaps a week away from something coming to fruition,” Heyman told the podcast. “I think they’ve gone through two rounds of bidding. I think we’re up to the next round, and maybe we’ll start to see some teams eliminated. I don’t know if that’s going to become public or not.”
So, from Boras' position, all that has happened is that all contenders made it to the next round. He wants best and final bids.
I guess one can surmise that the initial bids might reflect ultimate constraints, but I would not rely on that. If the Yanks publicly claimed that they were limited to $500, was that true, or was that to lay in the weeds? Now that the market is $630, do they top it?

What we can say is that all of the talk about the Sox winning the prior round seems only marginally relevant.
 

BaseballJones

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If they essentially replace Duran with Soto, just based on this past season's numbers...

2024 Duran (27): .285/.342/.492/.834, 129 ops+, 34 sb, 8.7 bWAR
2024 Soto (25): .288/.419/.569/.989, 178 ops+, 7 sb, 7.9 bWAR

From a 2024 bWAR perspective, it would be an overall downgrade, and a muuuuuuch more expensive one at that.

Now realistically, we all, I assume, think Soto is a better baseball player than Jarren Duran. He has a longer track record of excellence, and is a much better hitter. He's also 2 years younger. So yes obviously I'd rather have Soto than Duran if I had to choose between the two of them. But moving Duran and replacing him with Soto is much different than moving Abreu or Yoshida.

Obviously the idea isn't just to swap them out; it's to use Duran to get a stud SP, so I get that.
 

simplicio

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Soto also doesn't have most of his value tied up in a pair of legs that are inching past prime.
 

radsoxfan

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Ultimately, for me, the poor defense is the cost of doing business here. Let’s say he gets a 14 year deal. I’d estimate the first 6-7 years to be as a 4-8 WAR franchise cornerstone type impact. The back end would likely have some waste but, again, that’s baked into the analysis.
I think that's a reasonable expectation. But again, these are huge numbers we are talking about.

We shouldn't gloss over the back half of that contract, that alone is 7-8 years 350M-400M!

It's one thing to overpay for some decline years when you are paying 10M per season; that's a budget annoyance. But overpaying at 50M per season is going to have some very real consequences if Soto declines. And unlike some over 30 players, he will not be getting any value from his D so the bat will have to stay super elite.


Obviously, spending more is likely the answer here so I would assume a Soto signing would constitute a renewed commitment from ownership to spend beyond the levels of recent years with the occasional luxury tax reset.
This is what it comes down to, I agree. If ownership is planning to commit more to the team then 50M/season for Soto definitely can make sense. If it's just their way to say "look at us we are trying!", but we are still falling back to the middle of the pack budget-wise overall, I'm less optimistic this would work out well.
 

Saints Rest

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I think that's a reasonable expectation. But again, these are huge numbers we are talking about.

We shouldn't gloss over the back half of that contract, that alone is 7-8 years 350M-400M!

It's one thing to overpay for some decline years when you are paying 10M per season; that's a budget annoyance. But overpaying at 50M per season is going to have some very real consequences if Soto declines. And unlike some over 30 players, he will not be getting any value from his D so the bat will have to stay super elite.




This is what it comes down to, I agree. If ownership is planning to commit more to the team then 50M/season for Soto definitely can make sense. If it's just their way to say "look at us we are trying!", but we are still falling back to the middle of the pack budget-wise overall, I'm less optimistic this would work out well.
This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)

Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
  • Yaz: 22.1
  • Papi: 17.7
  • Manny: 19.1
  • Pujols: 8.4
  • Junior: 6.7
  • Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
  • Andruw Jones: 3.0
 

zenax

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https://www.nj.com/yankees/2024/12/yankees-juan-soto-worry-is-growing-over-emerging-threat-and-its-not-the-mets.html

Saw this article in today's NH Union Leader and looked it up on nj.com --- supposedly, the Sox, Mets, and Blue Jays have all made offers upwards of $600 million with a former Soto teammate saying Soto wants a contract higher than Ohtani received but with no deferred pay.

I'm sorry, but I think the Red Sox could do a hell of a lot more for their team by spending $700 million on a couple of solid starters, a good second baseman and maybe a catcher. If the Sox feel that one or more of their top prospects will pan out by 2025, they could try offering higher but shorter term contracts to free agent position players and decide down the road who to trade.
 

koufax37

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This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)

Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
  • Yaz: 22.1
  • Papi: 17.7
  • Manny: 19.1
  • Pujols: 8.4
  • Junior: 6.7
  • Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
  • Andruw Jones: 3.0
Two big factors to consider in any year 7-12 assessment:

1) Surplus value years 1-6
2) Year 7 is 2031, Year 12 is 2036. Tough times to project.

Today the highest salary is 43M
12 years ago the highest salary was 29M
12 years prior the highest salary was 12M
12 years prior the highest salary was 2M

The revenue trends are not linear forever, but especially in an unusually inflationary current period, I think worrying about paying a 38 year old Soto 50M in 2036 being a bad strategy is more complicated than imagining paying a 38 year old Cabrera 30M in 2021. Or a 38 year old Griffey 8M in 2008.

Also as a side note, John Henry will be be turn 87 in 2036 (good lord willing). Carl Pohlad finished with an 18 year World Series-less streak and $3.6B, which strikes me as imperfect priorities. Each human is entitled to their own personal choices, but I think that he probably has some personal interest in hanging some banners 2025-2035 relative to Chaim Bloom fiscal responsibility with the 2037 team budget...
 

radsoxfan

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This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)

Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
  • Yaz: 22.1
  • Papi: 17.7
  • Manny: 19.1
  • Pujols: 8.4
  • Junior: 6.7
  • Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
  • Andruw Jones: 3.0
400M for 10-20 WAR is going to suck. Let’s hope it’s closer to 20.

It’s not my money and I see the short to medium term benefits.

If we are going to be a top 3-5 payroll team it might make sense as long as the numbers don’t get too crazy. But we should also be aware what we are potentially getting ourselves into….
 

BigSoxFan

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400M for 10-20 WAR is going to suck. Let’s hope it’s closer to 20.

It’s not my money and I see the short to medium term benefits.

If we are going to be a top 3-5 payroll team it might make sense as long as the numbers don’t get too crazy. But we should also be aware what we are potentially getting ourselves into….
I think we’re all aware. This is a question of risk tolerance and risk/reward, really. If Soto helps the Sox to a title, he could have 0.0 WAR on the back end and I wouldn’t care.
 

chawson

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I'm sorry, but I think the Red Sox could do a hell of a lot more for their team by spending $700 million on a couple of solid starters, a good second baseman and maybe a catcher. If the Sox feel that one or more of their top prospects will pan out by 2025, they could try offering higher but shorter term contracts to free agent position players and decide down the road who to trade.
This is a worthwhile debate, but I still opt for the Soto at $700 million side. There's quite a lot of value wrapped up in those three roster spots in this hypothetical, and with our farm system, the value of the cost-controlled players is pretty high.

We should also consider the off-field value of Soto in a Boston uniform would generate. Not only in sponsorships and marketing dollars, but the trickle down effects (on other MLB players, within New England sports, on future generations, etc.). It would basically transform the perception of the team from whatever it is now (YMMV) to something pretty damn close to "Dodgers East." How much is that worth?
 

loneredseat

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If they sign Soto, I actually shift to wanting to deal Duran, Yoshida and a mid-tier prospect to Seattle for one of their top 2 guys and I think they'd have to bite on that. It would sort of toss Anthony into a CF role with Rafaela but would also allow for another season of easing Abreu in against LHP in RF and to see if Rafaela can improve his plate discipline some... would make a flexible OF with possibly Montgomery being ready to take Abreu's spot if he can't adjust.
The thing is, I'd love to see the top of our line up go with Duran, Soto, and Devers in it.