I agree.... but Fried would be smart to allow Soto to sign so that those who missed out will know they have money to spend and might result in a better deal for him.Why does order matter? The Sox should get Fried regardless of what the plans are with Soto
I thought it was Mitch and Murray that had the good leadsWhat’s Curry saying?
Yeah, I’m near 100% certain that’s exactly what Boras’ Burnes strategy is based on. The losers will pivot to the best SP and there will be added pressure to deliver something sellable quickly.I agree.... but Fried would be smart to allow Soto to sign so that those who missed out will know they have money to spend and might result in a better deal for him.
Bad news for Yankees fans because he said same exact thing about Yamamoto last year.
"One time, I saw this Twitter hack sharing a Soto take. I was like, 'Dude, you have to wait!'"Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:
"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
At my age you stream everywhere.
... and often in Morse Code -- dots and dashes….and continuously.
Every FA negotiation is a ploy to extract more money from everyone.Worry that this is all a ploy to extract more from the Yankees.
Sounds like we could generate some interest in a Depends franchise. Maybe Bres and company could offer it to Soto as a sweetener.... and often in Morse Code -- dots and dashes
That's not the concern. The worry is that if they don't get Soto, they won't go shopping for other top-tier free agents, and just say that Soto was a special case.Worry that this is all a ploy to extract more from the Yankees.
I am worried they’ll sign Soto and say that’s all they could afford this offseason. Soto is a special player, but he doesn’t fill all the holes on the Red Sox’ roster.That's not the concern. The worry is that if they don't get Soto, they won't go shopping for other top-tier free agents, and just say that Soto was a special case.
Soto is going to get more years since he's four years younger than Ohtani. And Ohtani didn't get 700M. Because of the deferrals, his deal is worth 460M. At the same AAV, Soto can get close to 700M just with the extra years.I don’t understand some of these reports saying he will get more than Ohtani’s 700M. Soto is awesome, but he’s not better than Ohtani, and he can’t pitch, so why would he get more than $700M?
that's surprisingly good (and I use chatGPT every day). it gets Mitch.Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:
"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
Hey Juan, give us some of that money back? Just give him a piece of the actionI was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
Isn't it incredible how many people think "Ohtani got 700M?"Soto is going to get more years since he's four years younger than Ohtani. And Ohtani didn't get 700M. Because of the deferrals, his deal is worth 460M. At the same AAV, Soto can get close to 700M just with the extra years.
If you'd written A politician, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ... the punchline could have been "Which one do you shoot last?" Major fail.A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....
Does the CBA have rules about side deals?I was thinking that maybe as an extra perk, FSG could offer Soto the opportunity to invest in their Fenway-area development plans (not as an owner/investor in FSG, which I think MLB could consider problematic, but as an independent investor) and the opportunity to purchase or lease a luxury condo in this development (or to throw free use of such a condo into the deal if that's kosher). Just trying to think of ways that maybe the Sox can leverage their planned RE development into the equation - I think that's something that might get Boras' attention and help offset a higher offer from Cohen (unless he's offering something similar).
Why would he need to be a DH soon? Manny, a reasonable Soto comp, played OF into his late 30s. Stick him in LF to mitigate whatever concerns are there with his defense. Given his hitting profile, I don’t really have any concerns with his bat for a while and I’d gladly pay a premium to lock in the near certainty of an impact bat for the next decade.Isn't it incredible how many people think "Ohtani got 700M?"
Soto will beat Ohtani's 460M total value because he is much younger as you pointed out. Plus, I'm sure the Ohtani pitching angle was not counted on significantly.
I am more hesitant about Soto's long term value than some here though. Even with his elite bat, he is not a good OF and soon will be a DH. It's going to be tough to count on him for 5-6 WAR per season past his prime (and this contract will likely include a lot of post prime seasons).
OK sure, he can play a bad LF in Fenway like Manny.Why would he need to be a DH soon? Manny, a reasonable Soto comp, played OF into his late 30s. Stick him in LF to mitigate whatever concerns are there with his defense. Given his hitting profile, I don’t really have any concerns with his bat for a while and I’d gladly pay a premium to lock in the near certainty of an impact bat for the next decade.
I think we’re all probably using different discount rates for defense. It’s clearly important but some of the issues can be partially mitigated by a move back to LF and having strong OF defense at CF/RF. Obviously, not easy to snap your fingers and find that but I like the near-term options along with Montgomery’s long-term potential. And I’m well aware that Soto would have some WTF moments out there.OK sure, he can play a bad LF in Fenway like Manny.
He is either going to be a bad defender or a DH. It's not the end of the world given the bat of course, but I'm not sure everyone is fully accounting for the significant negative on that side of the ball (given the #s being thrown around).
Not my money, yada yada, and I agree for the most part. I'll be stoked if we sign him, but the risk here is real.
I needed this. I miss that Mitch. The one on X, meh not so much.Because this thread is in dire need of a real update, I asked ChatGPT to write a joke in the voice of Mitch Hedberg about the Red Sox signing Juan Soto:
"Juan Soto signed with the Red Sox. That’s huge. They said he’s gonna crush it at Fenway. I’d crush it too if I got paid $500 million. I’d walk up to the plate thinking, ‘Even if I strike out, I can buy everyone here nachos.’ And then I’d still have enough left to buy a yacht... just to store more nachos."
I'm not. If they sign him, they have Soto, Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela, Refsnyder and possibly Campbell all to play OF. If they sign him (25% chance at this point?) someone is getting traded for pitching.I am worried they’ll sign Soto and say that’s all they could afford this offseason. Soto is a special player, but he doesn’t fill all the holes on the Red Sox’ roster.
The bartender says, "What'll it be, sir?"A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....
If they sign Soto, I actually shift to wanting to deal Duran, Yoshida and a mid-tier prospect to Seattle for one of their top 2 guys and I think they'd have to bite on that. It would sort of toss Anthony into a CF role with Rafaela but would also allow for another season of easing Abreu in against LHP in RF and to see if Rafaela can improve his plate discipline some... would make a flexible OF with possibly Montgomery being ready to take Abreu's spot if he can't adjust.I'm not. If they sign him, they have Soto, Duran, Abreu, Anthony, Rafaela, Refsnyder and possibly Campbell all to play OF. If they sign him (25% chance at this point?) someone is getting traded for pitching.
So, from Boras' position, all that has happened is that all contenders made it to the next round. He wants best and final bids.“I would say we’re only perhaps a week away from something coming to fruition,” Heyman told the podcast. “I think they’ve gone through two rounds of bidding. I think we’re up to the next round, and maybe we’ll start to see some teams eliminated. I don’t know if that’s going to become public or not.”
John Lackey walks up to a Fenway Park bar at the top of the eighth ...A rabbi, a tax accountant, and a real estate lawyer walk into a bar ....
And a guy walks in wearing a gorilla suit and says…John Lackey walks up to a Fenway Park bar at the top of the eighth ...
I think that's a reasonable expectation. But again, these are huge numbers we are talking about.Ultimately, for me, the poor defense is the cost of doing business here. Let’s say he gets a 14 year deal. I’d estimate the first 6-7 years to be as a 4-8 WAR franchise cornerstone type impact. The back end would likely have some waste but, again, that’s baked into the analysis.
This is what it comes down to, I agree. If ownership is planning to commit more to the team then 50M/season for Soto definitely can make sense. If it's just their way to say "look at us we are trying!", but we are still falling back to the middle of the pack budget-wise overall, I'm less optimistic this would work out well.Obviously, spending more is likely the answer here so I would assume a Soto signing would constitute a renewed commitment from ownership to spend beyond the levels of recent years with the occasional luxury tax reset.
If you can’t stand the heat, get out for some chicken.And a guy walks in wearing a gorilla suit and says…
Why do you hate Mitch Hedberg??Jesus, this is worse than the fake reporting.
This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)I think that's a reasonable expectation. But again, these are huge numbers we are talking about.
We shouldn't gloss over the back half of that contract, that alone is 7-8 years 350M-400M!
It's one thing to overpay for some decline years when you are paying 10M per season; that's a budget annoyance. But overpaying at 50M per season is going to have some very real consequences if Soto declines. And unlike some over 30 players, he will not be getting any value from his D so the bat will have to stay super elite.
This is what it comes down to, I agree. If ownership is planning to commit more to the team then 50M/season for Soto definitely can make sense. If it's just their way to say "look at us we are trying!", but we are still falling back to the middle of the pack budget-wise overall, I'm less optimistic this would work out well.
Two big factors to consider in any year 7-12 assessment:This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)
Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
- Yaz: 22.1
- Papi: 17.7
- Manny: 19.1
- Pujols: 8.4
- Junior: 6.7
- Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
- Andruw Jones: 3.0
400M for 10-20 WAR is going to suck. Let’s hope it’s closer to 20.This is a great point on face value, but I wonder if it holds up when you look at the careers of great (ie. HOF-level) hitters. (Sobering answer below)
Here are a few names with total WAR for their age 33-38 seasons (to line up with years 7-12 for Soto), including some who are listed as Similar per baseball-reference thru age 25:
- Yaz: 22.1
- Papi: 17.7
- Manny: 19.1
- Pujols: 8.4
- Junior: 6.7
- Miguel Cabrera: 3.9
- Andruw Jones: 3.0
I think we’re all aware. This is a question of risk tolerance and risk/reward, really. If Soto helps the Sox to a title, he could have 0.0 WAR on the back end and I wouldn’t care.400M for 10-20 WAR is going to suck. Let’s hope it’s closer to 20.
It’s not my money and I see the short to medium term benefits.
If we are going to be a top 3-5 payroll team it might make sense as long as the numbers don’t get too crazy. But we should also be aware what we are potentially getting ourselves into….
This is a worthwhile debate, but I still opt for the Soto at $700 million side. There's quite a lot of value wrapped up in those three roster spots in this hypothetical, and with our farm system, the value of the cost-controlled players is pretty high.I'm sorry, but I think the Red Sox could do a hell of a lot more for their team by spending $700 million on a couple of solid starters, a good second baseman and maybe a catcher. If the Sox feel that one or more of their top prospects will pan out by 2025, they could try offering higher but shorter term contracts to free agent position players and decide down the road who to trade.
The thing is, I'd love to see the top of our line up go with Duran, Soto, and Devers in it.If they sign Soto, I actually shift to wanting to deal Duran, Yoshida and a mid-tier prospect to Seattle for one of their top 2 guys and I think they'd have to bite on that. It would sort of toss Anthony into a CF role with Rafaela but would also allow for another season of easing Abreu in against LHP in RF and to see if Rafaela can improve his plate discipline some... would make a flexible OF with possibly Montgomery being ready to take Abreu's spot if he can't adjust.