BP's Top 10 Red Sox Prospects

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
The Top Ten
  1. SS Xander Bogaerts
  2. CF Jackie Bradley, Jr.
  3. 3B Garin Cecchini
  4. RHP Matt Barnes
  5. LHP Henry Owens
  6. Blake Swihart
  7. RHP Allen Webster
  8. 2B Mookie Betts
  9. Christian Vazquez
  10. LHP Trey Ball
 
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22508
 
Barnes as the top pitcher in the system is a bit surprising even when you take into account their being less tools driven than BA.  I won't copy the entire write up for the system as it's subscriber material, but here are a few of the more interesting ones.
 
Bogaerts:
 
 
The Tools: 6+ potential hit; 6+ potential power; 6 arm; 5 glove
What Happened in 2013: Bogaerts crushed in two upper-level stops before arriving at the major-league level, where the (now) 21-year-old made his presence felt in the regular season before blossoming under the bright lights of the postseason.
Strengths: Great hands and coordination; easy, fluid swing; shows bat speed and bat control; projects to hit for both a high average and game power; advanced approach; instincts enhance profile at short; arm is plus.
Weaknesses: Defensive profile at short is average; actions can get stiff; range isn’t ideal because of fringe run, but plays up because of instincts and good first step; over-the-fence pop still immature.
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star level player
Realistic Role: 6; first-division player
Risk Factor/Injury History: Low risk; achieved major-league level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Bogaerts is ready, willing and able to be one of the next great middle infielders in the fantasy realm. Even without the ability to add much value on the bases (he’s 17-for-33 on the basepaths in his minor-league career), he can provide Troy Tulowitzki-type value everywhere else. A potential .300 hitter with 25-plus homers and potentially huge RBI totals is a special player, and makes Bogaerts the top fantasy prospect in baseball.
The Year Ahead: Bogaerts has the type of profile to develop into a star, a middle of-the-diamond defender with a high-upside bat capable of producing a high average and game power. The makeup is insane, and any setback or failure on the field won’t derail or dissuade his progression toward his ultimate goal. Adjustments will be necessary after the book on Bogaerts is passed around, but his feel for the game and speed of adaptation will allow him to thrive at the highest level despite his inexperience and age.
Major league ETA: Debuted in 2013
 
 
 
Barnes
 
 
The Tools: 7 potential FB; 5+ potential CB; 5 CH
What Happened in 2013: In his Double-A debut, Barnes was solid but not special, showing off the big boy fastball and missing barrels, but failed to take the secondary stuff to the next developmental level.
Strengths: Excellent size; power arm strength; fastball is meaty offering; routinely works 93-96; touches higher when needed; arm-side life; curveball flashes knockout potential; mid-upper 70s with two-plane break and occasional late snap; shows some feel for fading changeup; projects as average offering.
Weaknesses: Below-average command; delivery can get out of whack; struggles to stay over and finish his pitches; fastball can flatten out; curveball can break too early and get big and visible; changeup lacks plus projection and isn’t a weapon.
Overall Future Potential: 6; no. 3 starter
Realistic Role: 5; late-innings reliever (setup)
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; 24 starts at Double-A level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The shine has certainly come of Barnes’ star, but he still remains a very solid investment—especially in deeper leagues. The strikeouts (and wins, in turn) should be there, but pitching in the AL East could make his ratios less than stellar.
The Year Ahead: Barnes has more potential than he often shows; the young righty can get by with his superior fastball against inferior bats, but the secondary stuff only teases and rarely tantalizes. If he can bring it together—which several sources think will happen in 2014—Barnes has middle-of-the-rotation potential, with a plus-plus fastball that he can use to set up hitters for the plus curveball. The command needs work, and the curveball needs to find more consistency, but the ingredients are there for major-league success.
 
 
Swihart
 
 
The Tools: 6 arm; 5+ potential glove; 5+ potential hit; 5 potential power
What Happened in 2013: In his Carolina League debut, the switch-hitting catcher showed off his stick and his arm, slugging 112 hits in 103 games and throwing out 42 percent of would-be basestealers.
Strengths: Elite makeup; plus athlete; shows consistent swing mechanics from both sides of the plate; bat speed and barrel control; hit tool has above-average potential; mature approach; good gap pop; very good footwork behind the plate; plus arm; quick release for good pops; projects as plus defender.
Weaknesses: Will chase fastballs up; game power likely to play below plus; low-rider behind the plate (backside close to the ground) can shrink target size; still refining as a receiver.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Realistic Role: 5; major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; dual-threat development; yet to play at Double-A level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: Another catching prospect worth waiting for, Swihart has the potential to hit .280 with 15-plus homers. He also has the athleticism to steal 5-10 bases, which is just gravy from a catcher. He’ll never be the number one fantasy option at the position, but has the ability to be a starter in even the shallowest of formats.
The Year Ahead: Swihart has the type of makeup, work ethic, and physical skills to develop to his potential, regardless of the complexities of his dual-threat profile. The bat is solid, with a good approach, good hand/eye coordination and strength, and the defensive skill-set should be plus, with a strong arm, quick feet, and a high baseball IQ. Double-A will present a challenge for the 21-year-old, especially at the plate, where better arms can exploit his tastes for shoulder-level heat and force him to chase spin down and away. If he adjusts and the bat takes a step forward, his stock could really explode, as legit two-way catchers are the rarest breed found in baseball.
Major league ETA: Late 2015
 
 
Betts
 
 
The Tools: 6 run; 5+ arm; 6 potential glove; 6 potential hit
What Happened in 2013: In his full-season debut, Betts destroyed A-ball pitching across two levels and finished the year in the prospect-heavy Arizona Fall League, where he continued to show off his hit tool and mature approach.
Strengths: Plus athlete; plus instincts; excellent hand/eye coordination; well above-average pitch recognition skills; shows bat control and ability to use all fields; plus potential hit; easy plus runner; plus-plus range at 2B; glove projects to plus; arm is strong enough to make all the throws.
Weaknesses: Limited size; power likely to play well below average; questions about timing/balance in swing against better stuff (getting front foot down); good actions and hands on defense, but still finding familiarity with position.
Overall Future Potential: High 5; above-average regular
Realistic Role: Low 5; fringe-average major-league regular
Risk Factor/Injury History: Moderate risk; yet to play at Double-A level
Bret Sayre’s Fantasy Take: The stat line is sexy, and his fantasy potential is only a slightly lesser version of said sexiness. The average/speed combination is attractive at such a shallow position and when you add potential 10-homer pop, there’s Jean Segura-lite potential here.
The Year Ahead: Sources are mixed on Betts, despite his impressive run through the A-ball levels and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League; some see an impact player on all sides of the ball, with a plus hit, plus approach, plus run, and plus defensive chops at second base, while others see more of a utility profile, a catalytic player that doesn’t have enough offensive punch to profile as a regular. Double-A will be a huge test for the catalytic player, a level that often exposes players for what they really are (or what they are likely to become).
Major league ETA: 2015
 
Their "Prospects On The Rise" are Manuel Margo, Rafael Devers and Wendell Rijo.  They describe Devers as having "One of the sweetest swings I've ever seen" and having bat speed "you just can't teach."  They compare the swing to Cano.  They also mention Ranaudo, Workman and Hassan as likely to contribute at the major league level in 2014.  The top 10 under 25 inserts Middlebrooks ahead of Cecchini and De La Rosa ahead of Betts.  They describe De La Rosa as a potential electric late inning arm.
 
 
 
A Parting Thought: This is a very strong system, with an elite player up top, a hearty collection of depth with realistic major-league realities, and a lower tier of high-ceiling talent waiting in the wings for their chance to step up.
 

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
That summary is close to what you dream of as a gm I imagine. Esp when you never pick high in a now largely slot system.

Elite talent, a ton of realistic starters as depth and long term starters, depth throughout the system and plenty of high ceilings. Plus you have to love the development recently, maybe luck maybe really good development program.
 

OttoC

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2003
7,353
>They describe De La Rosa as a potential electric late inning arm.
 
Well, he certainly was in his first appearance out of the pen for Boston. According to BrooksBaseball, his fastball averageg 97.9 mph in that game, maxing out at 98.9. He looked unhittable. In his next ten outings, he gave up hits in all of them except for the two in which he faced only one batter. He lost a 1/2-mph, or so, off his fastball and maybe some break. It depends whether he gets everything back.
 

Hoplite

New Member
Oct 26, 2013
1,116
I love BP. Some of the more interesting takeaways for me were that they still see Middlebrooks as a potential plus defender and they absolutely love Devers.