Brady/Manning XV: AFC Championship Game

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,182
Missoula, MT
Well, the league has what it wants:
 
Brady v. Manning for a trip to the bowl. 
 
3 PM EST Sunday.
 
Discuss/gameplan here.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,303
deep inside Guido territory
3:00 CBS

On offense
--Hold onto the football. Can't afford an early hole again.

--Be balanced. I know the running game has been great the past few weeks but there needs to be more passing. There's a fine line because we would like to run the ball and limit possessions for Peyton, but the Broncos are vulnerable through the air.

--Screen them to death. Their D-line loves to pass rush, so take advantage of their aggressiveness.

--Find other ways to get Edelman the ball in space.

--Keep the rotations short for the RBs. They do a good job of that, but the altitude will make that more important.

On defense
--Jamie Collins needs to play as good or better this week. Julius Thomas is no Coby Fleener. If he can stay with him, it opens up the safeties to give help other places instead of playing JT and leaving the middle vulnerable.

--from my end zone view, it looked like Talib was matched up on Hilton all night and did a good job. I think you have to give him D Thomas and hope he shuts him down. You can shade DMC to his side, but I want them to be in 2 deep to take away the short shit.

--Will they use the game plan against the run as in Week 12? Aka not even worry about it? Or will Bill flood the middle with LBs and give Moreno as many yards as he wants?



In my mind, Jamie Collins is the X-factor for this game. If he can match up with JT, I think our secondary can handle their receivers. They are healthier than the last matchup as Talib was hobbled, Dennard had surgery just the week of the game, and Gregory was out.

I am so happy with this team. An AFC title game with all they've been through is pretty damn impressive. I don't doubt their mental toughness going into a tough building. I can't wait for Sunday.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,182
Missoula, MT
This game won't see the Patriots fumble 4 times in the first half and likewise won't see a total game number of 11.  I would think that allowing the Broncos RB to move the chains and take the ball out of Manning's hands may be part of their defensive plan again.  But with healthy corners, the emergence of Collins as a coverage threat and Siliga playing a viable WIlfork, we may see something entirely different. 
 
Arrington on Welker scares the shit out of me.
 

PseuFighter

Silent scenester
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2003
14,408
Tickets on sale tomorrow at 10 Mountain time, but restricted to Colorado and surrounding states. Anyone have a billing address in one of those states and willing to let me buy? Will happily PayPal / Venmo / whatever the cost back immediately. (already have flights / hotel booked). Either their idea of keeping Pats fans out, or trying to curtail resale.
 
Sales to this event will be restricted to residents of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, and South Dakota. Residency will be based on credit card billing address. Orders by residents outside Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, and South Dakota will be canceled without notice and refunds given.
 
PM me if you can help. Thanks :)
 

Dalton Jones

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2001
1,410
Pats are + 7. If they win this game it puts a permanent stake in Manning's pretense to being the best quarterback of his era. This is like the Red Sox-Yankees in 2004. The Super Bowl will almost be an afterthought if Brady beats Manning in the AFC championship game next week.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
I'm hoping McDaniels has some passing schemes saved up because Denver is really vulnerable in the secondary. I hope Dobson is a fast healer, he is really needed for this one. Not saying the Pats need to throw it 50 times, but I don't think the run/pass ratios from the last couple of weeks are ideal here, they're going to have to play a little more aggressively on early downs. Brady has carved up this Bronco defense for three seasons, he will have to do so Sunday.

Defense, cannot miss opportunities for big plays and third down stops. Broncos offense is terrifying. First priority is to take away the quick strike on early downs. SD did a pretty good job at that today. Whenever the offense make a mistake (ball thrown into a defenders hand, 3rd and long via penalty), have to capitalize. They'll move the ball and score points. As with the first game, lots of early down runs are advantage Patriots. Secondary getting healthy + Collins emergence means the pass coverage is in as good of shape as we can possibly hope for.

My two picks for players that need to have big games are Amendola and Chandler Jones Have to rush Manning into a couple of errors and have to make some plays downfield in the passing game. A repeat of Amendolas week one performance would help immensely.

I feel reasonably good, I'd guess Pats win about 4 in 10 here.
 

The Social Chair

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 17, 2010
6,082
Dalton Jones said:
Pats are + 7. If they win this game it puts a permanent stake in Manning's pretense to being the best quarterback of his era. This is like the Red Sox-Yankees in 2004. The Super Bowl will almost be an afterthought if Brady beats Manning in the AFC championship game next week.
 
Except SF and Seattle are arguably better than both AFC teams.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
Zomp said:
Is Brady vs Peyton Manning the most played quaterback match up ever?
Apparently Kelly met Marino 21 times. Brady vs. Manning is about to hit 15. Being in different divisions is a big deal here.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Dalton Jones said:
Pats are + 7. If they win this game it puts a permanent stake in Manning's pretense to being the best quarterback of his era. This is like the Red Sox-Yankees in 2004. The Super Bowl will almost be an afterthought if Brady beats Manning in the AFC championship game next week.
I care about a fourth Super Bowl about 10,000 times more than the tired Manning vs Brady debate.
 

Reardon's Beard

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 3, 2005
3,795
I did not see a Denver team today that seemed both unstoppable or with any sort of killer instinct.
 
Between the air and ground attack, with an amped up defense, I very much look forward to the game.
 

ShaneTrot

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2002
6,403
Overland Park, KS
NE has won the last 4 meetings with Denver. Two were against Tebow in 2011. The last time Denver beat NE was in 2009 when Josh McDaniels was the coach, Kyle Orton was the Denver QB, Sammy Morris was NE leading rusher and Leigh Bodden led the team in tackles that day with 11. Wow have times changed. 
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,402
PseuFighter said:
Tickets on sale tomorrow at 10 Mountain time, but restricted to Colorado and surrounding states. Anyone have a billing address in one of those states and willing to let me buy? Will happily PayPal / Venmo / whatever the cost back immediately. (already have flights / hotel booked). Either their idea of keeping Pats fans out, or trying to curtail resale.
 
Sales to this event will be restricted to residents of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, and South Dakota. Residency will be based on credit card billing address. Orders by residents outside Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nebraska, Kansas, Montana, and South Dakota will be canceled without notice and refunds given.
 
 
Honest question/suggestion: If you bought the tickets from the Broncos with Paypal or a pre-paid credit card off the shelf of Walgreen's,  how would they know where you live?
 

triniSox

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 27, 2008
1,255
As much as it's going to be billed Brady vs Manning again, it's really more about BB vs Manning. One of the best coaches in NFL history with a reputation for being a defensive mastermind vs one of the best QBs each. How many tricks does BB have up his sleeve?
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,672
The Broncos defense looked very good today. However, this is the defense that the Patriots have scored 34,31,41 and 45 points against over the last three seasons.
And while Gronkowski will not be there this time, neither will Von Miller, who to me was the best Denver defender in each of those game.
 
The key to this game in my eyes is whether the Broncos defense can replicate the success they had today against San Diego, who seemed hampered by horrible O-Line play and weird play calling.
 

mt8thsw9th

anti-SoSHal
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
17,120
Brooklyn
RedOctober3829 said:
--Jamie Collins needs to play as good or better this week.
 
He needs to have better than an absolutely incredible game? If that's the case, the Patriots are fucked. It would be nice, but that's an absolutely insane thing to expect, even matching the performance.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,303
deep inside Guido territory
mt8thsw9th said:
He needs to have better than an absolutely incredible game? If that's the case, the Patriots are fucked. It would be nice, but that's an absolutely insane thing to expect, even matching the performance.
In terms of covering the TE, it's a harder job than on Fleener. It might be insane, but he needs to be the Collins we saw last night again. I don't see anybody else who can cover him. Secondary has it's hands full with the WRs.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,182
Missoula, MT
Does Arrington get Welker in the slot or do we see Ryan take those duties with Arrington getting Caldwell?
 
Arrington on Welker scares the shit out of me.
 

axx

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
8,126
Kind of surprised Pats-Broncos is the early game considering all the hype this one is sure to get. Weather looks good, so I think that's an advantage for the Broncos.
 

mascho

Kane is Able
SoSH Member
Nov 30, 2007
14,952
Silver Spring, Maryland
Kind of surprised Pats-Broncos is the early game considering all the hype this one is sure to get. Weather looks good, so I think that's an advantage for the Broncos.


They rotate early and late games each year by conference.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,092
Duval
RedOctober3829 said:
In terms of covering the TE, it's a harder job than on Fleener. It might be insane, but he needs to be the Collins we saw last night again. I don't see anybody else who can cover him. Secondary has it's hands full with the WRs.
I would expect an extra chip from someone else when possible. Of course if Collins were to be on him I would fully expect Manning to change his route to some kind of outside isolation route.

The usual prescription for an offense like this is bump coverage. We have the personnel for it with Talib and Dennard...but isn't that madness to do against D. Thomas and Decker?

Who will get targeted as the "take one thing away" person? Was it D. Thomas in Foxboro?


Great season. I'd love to see it continue but have my doubts. I would love someone to talk me into having confidence going into Sunday. This is going to be a painfully long week.
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,092
Duval
Dogman2 said:
Does Arrington get Welker in the slot or do we see Ryan take those duties with Arrington getting Caldwell?
 
Arrington on Welker scares the shit out of me.
Isn't it commonly accepted that Slot Arrington is more than competent while outside/downfield Arrington is Darius Butler 1.2?
 

bball831

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
4,965
Doesn't really matter much but teams that played (and obviously won) on Saturday of the divisional week are 8-2 in the last 5 years in conference championship games.
 

RIrooter09

Alvin
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2008
7,254
bball831 said:
Doesn't really matter much but teams that played (and obviously won) on Saturday of the divisional week are 8-2 in the last 5 years in conference championship games.
 
Extra day of rest and prep can't hurt.  
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
If SF completes the road trifecta of GB/Car/Sea, it probably will be the SB favorite and deservedly so. It's the matchup the scares me the most as a Pats fan
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,182
Missoula, MT
koufax32 said:
I would expect an extra chip from someone else when possible. Of course if Collins were to be on him I would fully expect Manning to change his route to some kind of outside isolation route.

The usual prescription for an offense like this is bump coverage. We have the personnel for it with Talib and Dennard...but isn't that madness to do against D. Thomas and Decker?

Who will get targeted as the "take one thing away" person? Was it D. Thomas in Foxboro?


Great season. I'd love to see it continue but have my doubts. I would love someone to talk me into having confidence going into Sunday. This is going to be a painfully long week.
 
I think the big take away was allowing Denver to run the ball taking the ball out of Manning's hands.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,188
Champ Bailey was back in the slot, but I didn't feel like he was doing anything all game.
 
If the Pats play like they played Indy, and the Broncos play how they played the Chargers, the Pats should win.
 

Dogman

Yukon Cornelius
Moderator
SoSH Member
Mar 19, 2004
15,182
Missoula, MT
koufax32 said:
Isn't it commonly accepted that Slot Arrington is more than competent while outside/downfield Arrington is Darius Butler 1.2?
 
Sure is, yes. It just seems like every game Arrington, no matter where he is playing, gives up 1 or 2 big plays.  With him looking hobbled/benched yesterday, I think Ryan should get Welker.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
2,937
Berkeley, CA
The Broncos D played well - especially early when they were getting push up the middle - exactly the Pats kryptonite.  That said, the Chargers just couldn't execute all day and they had plenty of opportunities with open receivers.  Dropped passes, penalties stalling drives.  Also, Charger offense limited by Matthews injury.  Woodhead's a fine player but he struggled (as he did in NE) when cast as feature back.  
 
As for Chargers' D, it should have had a pick on Manning that first drive, lots of penalties giving Broncos short yardage for 1st downs and the unforgivable first down on 3rd and 18 (?) that last Bronco drive.  And they still only lost by 7 points.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Harry Hooper said:
 
Wow what? Is that higher or lower than you expected, Ben?
Higher undoubtedly. Pats have not been a dog in a playoff game since 2006 AFC Championship. But if you think this game should be Pats +3 or less, you're intoxicated. Wow what indeed
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,404
brandonchristensen said:
Champ Bailey was back in the slot, but I didn't feel like he was doing anything all game.
 
If the Pats play like they played Indy, and the Broncos play how they played the Chargers, the Pats should win.
 
Aw yeah baby, this is the type of attitude we need this week!  No more Nancies.  
 

Dalton Jones

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 24, 2001
1,410
The Social Chair said:
Except SF and Seattle are arguably better than both AFC teams.
I agree. I think they both are. I'm petty enough to want the parochial AFC victory against Manning. It's all gravy after that for me.
 

H78

Fists of Millennial Fury!
SoSH Member
Jul 22, 2009
4,613
brandonchristensen said:
If the Pats play like they played Indy, and the Broncos play how they played the Chargers, the Pats should win.
 
If the Pats play like they did against Indy and the Broncos repeat their performance against the Chargers, the Patriots are going to blow out the Broncos. Like, 42-24 kind of blowout.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,597
Here
dcmissle said:
Higher undoubtedly. Pats have not been a dog in a playoff game since 2006 AFC Championship. But if you think this game should be Pats +3 or less, you're intoxicated. Wow what indeed
 
Maybe I'm buying into how well the team has played the last month or so, but I think these are about even teams on a neutral field right now, all things considered. Maybe Denver as high at +1.5. So I'd say 6-6.5 was pretty high, and I think it gets bet down to around 3.5. I think the Pats secondary actually matches up well, and I think Collins really helps with what Thomas can do. Talib is a solid matchup with D. Thomas, Dennard should be able to keep up with Decker fine, though the height difference is an advantage for Denver, and Welker honestly doesn't worry me too much these days. I think I'm more worried about the run than anything, especially since BB may overplay the pass and see what the Denver O Line and Moreno can do. Still, Siliga and Hightower's improvement give me more confidence in that area than when these two met the first time, and our pass rush has also gotten better with Siliga taking up more blockers.
 
Offensively, I think this offense puts up 30+ on this defense probably more than half the time, and even 40 wouldn't surprise me, depending on what time of game it is in terms of possessions per team. We can talk about how Denver outplayed San Diego, and that's true, but holy shit did San Diego make a TON of mistakes. Dropped INTs, poor clock management, terrible throws, drops, really Godawful playcalling, the offsides-go-round...I'm struggling to figure out how San Diego was even in that game. I don't think Denver punted once, and I would be willing to bet that isn't repeated next week.
 
I don't know, I like this Pats team right now maybe more than some of you, but I think the past 3 games they have really found their identity. They're also playing with house money and will be considered underdogs heading into the game, so I think they'll come out relaxed and playing their game. I never would have said this 6 weeks ago, but they may be playing the best football in the NFL right now, other than maybe the Niners. And they've got the best man you could possibly ask for preparing them. I like their chances. A lot.
 

86spike

Currently enjoying "Arli$$"
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2002
25,082
Procrasti Nation
brandonchristensen said:
Champ Bailey was back in the slot, but I didn't feel like he was doing anything all game.
 
If the Pats play like they played Indy, and the Broncos play how they played the Chargers, the Pats should win.
Champ had 4 tackles (tied for the most on the team) and held Antonio Gates to 10 yards. He had a fine game.
 

dbn

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 10, 2007
7,785
La Mancha.
RedOctober3829 said:
3:00 CBS

On offense
--Hold onto the football. Can't afford an early hole again.

--Be balanced. I know the running game has been great the past few weeks but there needs to be more passing. There's a fine line because we would like to run the ball and limit possessions for Peyton, but the Broncos are vulnerable through the air.

--Screen them to death. Their D-line loves to pass rush, so take advantage of their aggressiveness.

--Find other ways to get Edelman the ball in space.


--Keep the rotations short for the RBs. They do a good job of that, but the altitude will make that more important.

On defense
--Jamie Collins needs to play as good or better this week. Julius Thomas is no Coby Fleener. If he can stay with him, it opens up the safeties to give help other places instead of playing JT and leaving the middle vulnerable.

--from my end zone view, it looked like Talib was matched up on Hilton all night and did a good job. I think you have to give him D Thomas and hope he shuts him down. You can shade DMC to his side, but I want them to be in 2 deep to take away the short shit.

--Will they use the game plan against the run as in Week 12? Aka not even worry about it? Or will Bill flood the middle with LBs and give Moreno as many yards as he wants?



In my mind, Jamie Collins is the X-factor for this game. If he can match up with JT, I think our secondary can handle their receivers. They are healthier than the last matchup as Talib was hobbled, Dennard had surgery just the week of the game, and Gregory was out.

I am so happy with this team. An AFC title game with all they've been through is pretty damn impressive. I don't doubt their mental toughness going into a tough building. I can't wait for Sunday.
 
I didn't see a lot of Amendola with St.L. so maybe I'm wrong, but didn't he gain a lot of yards on screens with them? Might be a good approach Sunday.
 
Stitch01 said:
I'm hoping McDaniels has some passing schemes saved up because Denver is really vulnerable in the secondary. I hope Dobson is a fast healer, he is really needed for this one. Not saying the Pats need to throw it 50 times, but I don't think the run/pass ratios from the last couple of weeks are ideal here, they're going to have to play a little more aggressively on early downs. Brady has carved up this Bronco defense for three seasons, he will have to do so Sunday.

Defense, cannot miss opportunities for big plays and third down stops. Broncos offense is terrifying. First priority is to take away the quick strike on early downs. SD did a pretty good job at that today. Whenever the offense make a mistake (ball thrown into a defenders hand, 3rd and long via penalty), have to capitalize. They'll move the ball and score points. As with the first game, lots of early down runs are advantage Patriots. Secondary getting healthy + Collins emergence means the pass coverage is in as good of shape as we can possibly hope for.

My two picks for players that need to have big games are Amendola and Chandler Jones Have to rush Manning into a couple of errors and have to make some plays downfield in the passing game. A repeat of Amendolas week one performance would help immensely.

I feel reasonably good, I'd guess Pats win about 4 in 10 here.
 
Indeed. As we all know the Patriots can have trouble with mobile QBs, which thankfully Manning is not. They did okay against Luck, but he did make a few plays with his legs, including one where Chandler tried to beat a double-team by ducking inside, leaving the edge wide open. Shouldn't be a problem against Peyton.
 
Meaningless stat of the day: the New England Patriots are the all-time leaders in road victories in the AFC championship game.