- Apr 13, 2000
It is an obvious statement in re turnovers, but the point in terms of prognosticating is not just stating the obvious, it's that statistically Manning is far more likely to turn the ball over. So, yes, if that happens...but statstically INTs should be more a Denver problem.I've been thinking a lot about a prediction on this game and as the week has worn on, I find myself becoming more and more confident in a Denver win.
I think it will be a close game and just like last week, the biggest key will be Manning's Offense avoiding turnovers and letting the Defense take care of business. It's kind of an obvious statement, but if Peyton throws several picks or Denver loses some fumbles, NE will probably win. If they protect the ball, I like Denver with a final score around 26-24.
Here's my reasoning:
General Home Field Advantage:
NE under Brady is only 2-6 in Denver. The altitude plays a part, but so does the loud crowd when NE is trying to run a hurry up attack and communicate. Natural grass as opposed to turf is another factor which I'll detail below.
A few days ago I saw an interesting couple of stats about NE playing on natural grass over the last few years. In the last 3 seasons and playoffs, NE's record playing on grass is 7-8. In addition, 4 of the 5 stadiums where Brady has a losing record in his career have natural grass (the fifth is SEA and that was only one game played). Those stadiums are Miami, KC, Carolina, and Denver and Brady's career numbers in those games is 10-17. Now, I'm sure a part of this is just the simple fact that it is harder to win on the road, but I also wonder if the precision passing attack that relies of timing and exact route running might be harder to execute on a surface that is not perfectly even like Modern turf surfaces are. Tomorrow might be a little muddy and there might be a little rain late in the game and I think NE will have some drives killed by failure to make the timing plays work. It won't keep NE out of the end zone, but it should lower the amount of drives where they score.