Build a bullpen instead of a rotation

[The_Dali]

Just a thought-starter, but would it make more sense to pick up Hader and build the staff from the back-end? Would spending the money there be a smarter option than throwing money at less-than-perfect options on the starter front?

I keep thinking about our staff and our ability to reliably go 3-4 innings… maybe the better plan is to lock down the end of the game? I can see the value in spending on Hader and trading Jansen plus prospects to fill the 2b and OF needs (or 1 starter). Thoughts?

 

[YTF]

Overall the pen seems pretty good. Perhaps another LH is needed, but personnel wise they're not in bad shape. That doesn't mean that improvements can't be made and Hader would definitely be an upgrade over Jansen. Starting pitching is still going to be an issue and no matter how you frame it we still need a couple of arms who would ideally be better than what we have in house ATM. No matter how good the pen is you only have a limited number of arms out there and we're all too familiar as to what an over used pen looks like. IMO they need to find starters who can reliably pitch through 5 innings, into the 6th and at times take you into the 7th and beyond.

 

[simplicio]

Just a thought-starter, but would it make more sense to pick up Hader and build the staff from the back-end? Would spending the money there be a smarter option than throwing money at less-than-perfect options on the starter front?

I keep thinking about our staff and our ability to reliably go 3-4 innings… maybe the better plan is to lock down the end of the game? I can see the value in spending on Hader and trading Jansen plus prospects to fill the 2b and OF needs (or 1 starter). Thoughts?

Hader costs a QO pick so I'm not sure he's worth it to a team that already has a good full pen. And our pen is good! It was good this year too; fifth in baseball through July, but then we wore them out and they were useless. 20th in August and 21st in September. If you keep having to pull your starter with two on and no outs in the 5th every couple days there really isn't a way to plug that hole with 1 inning guys over the course of a season. How many times this fall did we agonize over having no available relievers cause they'd all pitched the last two days, and ended up handing the ball to some poor shlub we found hanging around an indie ball park last week?

 

[The Gray Eagle]

They can improve the bullpen by adding a quality starter.

If they would sign Montgomery, the rotation would be Montgomery, Bello, Sale, Crawford and Pivetta, letting you move both Whitlock and Houck to the bullpen.
As a reliever, Houck has thrown 53 innings with a 2.68 ERA,1.14 WHIP, 57 Ks, 21 BB and 9 saves.
As a reliever, Whitlock has thrown 132 innings with a 2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 150 Ks, 20 BB, and 9 saves.

The guys we are bringing back had these numbers last year:
Jansen: 44 IP, 126 ERA+
Martin: 51 IP, 434 ERA+
Winckowski, 84 IP, 158 ERA+
Berandino: 50 IP, 143 ERA+
Schrieber: 46 IP, 118 ERA+

Add Houck and Whitlock, that is 7 relievers who all were either good last year or have been good as relievers instead of starters.

If we add 2 starting pitchers, then either Pivetta or Crawford would move to the bullpen, meaning we would have 8 guys who were either good last year or have been good as relievers in the past. There isn't roster room for any more relievers than that.

A Montgomery-level starter alone would help replace 180 or so of the terrible innings pitched last year by scrubs and would improve both the rotation and the bullpen a lot.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I can’t imagine giving big money and a QO draft pick for Hader.

I really like the idea of trading Jansen to the Cardinals/Rangers for starting prospect and signing the likes of Robert Stephenson.

 

[jbupstate]

They can improve the bullpen by adding a quality starter.

The bullpen was excellent last year until the starting pitching stalled. Add a starter that can post 150+ innings and the bullpen is very good*

* some relief pitchers are crazy inconsistent.

 

[The_Dali]

Perhaps Hader is a pipe-dream, but I do like the idea of both Houck and Whitlock in the pen to shorten the game. I think they could both be decent starters (maybe) but there is more value in the pen with 2-3 appearances per week.

TBH, Whitlock has no emotion and seems to have ice in his veins, I could see him as a perfectly acceptable closer.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Thoughts?

I think they effectively did this last year with the acquisition of Martin and Jansen.

Doing it again raises the question of who does that displace into the starting rotation? Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski?

I'd echo what everyone said here - getting quality innings up front in games will help the staff as a whole, mostly by not grinding them down. Sometimes, especially last year, it seems like the Sox don't have access to a simple spreadsheet. So they throw all their arms into games and are kind of surprised when pitchers burn out and there are no reinforcements.

Even so, per bref WAR, the Sox had the #6 pitching staff last year. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023.shtml

If you look at the monthly splits here for game starters v. game relievers, the starters sucked ass out of the gate. Then there was the July/August injury-fest. The relievers were pretty good - except for an August meltdown. In some ways it's kind of amazing they went 13-15 in August. Everyone pitched better in September, but the bats just absolutely quit.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=BOS&year=2023#month

The main problem was the position players - 15th overall. By bWAR:

C - 14th​

1B - 9th​

2B - 27th​

3B - 10th​

SS - 24th​

LF - 15th​

CF - 19th​

RF - 9th​

DH - 11th​

I would guess we're sort of locked into C and 3B. But a full season of Casas and Story should hugely lift 1B and SS. The OF has shuffled around with the Verdugo trade and the O'Neill acquisition, but overall it was very ML middle-of-the-pack. So I hope for a moderate improvement there with Abreu up.

2B remains the big hole to plug.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Just a thought-starter, but would it make more sense to pick up Hader and build the staff from the back-end? Would spending the money there be a smarter option than throwing money at less-than-perfect options on the starter front?

I keep thinking about our staff and our ability to reliably go 3-4 innings… maybe the better plan is to lock down the end of the game? I can see the value in spending on Hader and trading Jansen plus prospects to fill the 2b and OF needs (or 1 starter). Thoughts?

You have to get the game to the point where you can hand it to your back end bullpen guys to lock it down. Doesn't do a whole lot of good having Hader or Jansen or Martin to get you through the (7th?) 8th and 9th if your starters (or your "bulk" relievers) aren't reliably getting you to/through the 6th inning with a lead or a close score.

Where last season really started to falter was when they pushed the idea of getting by with 3 starters and 2 openers a bit too far. They muddled through July okay with that game plan (15-8) but didn't get guys back healthy enough fast enough to really carry on through August. So by September, the bullpen was gassed and the starters weren't up to picking the slack.

I think they've got the talent in house to have an effective rotation given better health luck and/or more reasonable injury distribution (not having 3-4 starters hit the IL at the same time would be nice). Doesn't mean they shouldn't be trying to upgrade and push some of those potential starters into the bullpen. I don't think it has to be elite, "top of the rotation" level starters that get added though. Guys who can reliably throw 150-180 mostly quality innings would go a long way toward improving the team's prospects. I think they can probably get such a guy for "Hader money".

 

[mauf]

Just a thought-starter, but would it make more sense to pick up Hader and build the staff from the back-end? Would spending the money there be a smarter option than throwing money at less-than-perfect options on the starter front?

I keep thinking about our staff and our ability to reliably go 3-4 innings… maybe the better plan is to lock down the end of the game? I can see the value in spending on Hader and trading Jansen plus prospects to fill the 2b and OF needs (or 1 starter). Thoughts?

Only 20 pitchers threw more than 70 innings in relief last season, and none threw as many as 85. Starting pitching isn’t as important as it was 20 years ago, but you can’t cover 1440-ish innings adequately with a 13-man staff without 3 or 4 workhorses. Perhaps the Sox should upgrade their bullpen, but that isn’t a substitute for having a few competent pitchers who can throw 150 innings. Btw, only 34 pitchers threw 150 innings and posted an ERA under 4 last season, and most of those guys aren’t available, so “less-than-perfect options” are pretty much what’s on tap.

I suppose you could argue that Breslow should roll the dice on improvements from Bello/Pivetta/Crawford/Houck rather than overpaying for starting pitching, but if you did that, I’d spend the savings on offense, as I think that would buy the starting pitchers more margin for error than trying to find 5-6 lockdown relievers.

 

[simplicio]

Outside of Teoscar/Turner, I'm not sure there is a way to improve the offense with money right now, the FA market is pretty bad.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Outside of Teoscar/Turner, I'm not sure there is a way to improve the offense with money right now, the FA market is pretty bad.

I believe Jorge Soler is still unsigned. BRef has both Soler and Hernandez projected for 26 HR in 2024 with similar OPS. The Diamondbacks were supposed to be one of Soler's top suitors, but they have re-signed Gurriel and added Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners. Adding Soler likely means Yoshida stays in LF most games, though.

 

[simplicio]

Soler is a DH without flexibility, I don't see how we'd be served by signing him over bringing Turner back either.