Yeah, that's a big nothingburger unless there is more to the tweet. He didn't even mention the Sox.
Good pointSounds more like dark humor than a "rip" or a whine to me. (I think it helps to read the tweet with an Aussie accent; he's from a suburb of Perth.) Not really a putdown of the Sox or even Mejia exactly, just a "so it's come to this" riff.
He tweet was quoting the mlbtraderumors tweet the Sox signed MejiaYeah, that's a big nothingburger unless there is more to the tweet. He didn't even mention the Sox.
This is why he needs to stay in the rotation. He's our best chance of producing a post-Sale ace.Edro has a much higher ceiling than 5th starter, lol
Duke signed with Cincy today. Still hoping for Sipp or Vincent paired with Kimbrel.I think Zach Duke would be a fine pickup as well. His peripherals were better than his results last year, and he was death on lefties.
Yeah, I think his ceiling is a solid #2, but he has a real chance of getting there. When you look at his ERA+ and FIP and compare it to LHP with 4 seasons through age 25 over the past 50 years, here are the people he ranks closest to:This is why he needs to stay in the rotation. He's our best chance of producing a post-Sale ace.
I think his likely ceiling is more of a 2-3 type — awesome! — but he just posted a 3 bWAR/2.3 fWAR season in which he only threw 130 IP. His FIPs have tended to be better than his ERAs, anecdotally because he has trouble staying away from the big inning.
If he can stay healthy for 30 starts and improve his in-game consistency just a touch, he could be a 200 IP, 230 K, low 3s ERA SP. That's a Jon Lester-type season.
A southpaw who’ll soon turn 34, Runzler has appeared in five big league seasons, though he hasn’t been a substantial contributor since 2013. All told, he owns a 3.89 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 over 76 1/3 innings at the game’s highest level.
Runzler has mostly toiled at Triple-A and in the Atlantic League over recent years, but did briefly crack the bigs with the Pirates in 2017. He possesses mid-nineties heat from the left side, but hasn’t consistently been able to command it. In 2018, he threw 48 innings of 2.81 ERA ball with the Sugar Land Skeeters, racking up 58 strikeouts but also doling out 27 free passes.
Like several of the team’s other recent, low-cost pen additions, Ellington is long on tools but lacks an established track record of success at the MLB level. He owns a 4.65 ERA in 102 2/3 career frames in the majors. Ellington was dropped early in 2018 by the Marlins and didn’t last long with the Diamondbacks organization after being added on a minors deal.
This line from the piece is pretty eye-popping: "Viewed through that lens, Boston would effectively be on the hook for a stunning $29,036,835 in 2019 if they were to sign Kimbrel at the record rate he’s quite likely eyeing."I thought this was pretty interesting, a deep dive into the full impact of being where BOS currently is in payroll:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/a-closer-look-at-the-red-sox-and-the-luxury-tax.html
OTOH, Cora got pretty pissed at Eduardo Rodriguez in a post game presser over ERod late in the season because he nibbled too much. “Has to do better than that.”Both Runzler and Ellington seem to be good strikeout/stuff, questionable walk/command guys, and that sorta dovetails with what we saw in the playoffs. Sox pitchers seemed to be less concerned about giving up a walk and more focused on preventing hard contact and XBHs. I have a vague memory of an article or interview with Cora semi-confiming this?
I don't think that was about nibbling so much as giving up rockets. The full quote:OTOH, Cora got pretty pissed at Eduardo Rodriguez in a post game presser over ERod late in the season because he nibbled too much. “Has to do better than that.”
Maybe. Is this any different than any other year or are we just paying more attention to it? I honestly don't know.Seems clear that the Brasier find has emboldened DD to go get 6-8 more similar candidates and find the next one.
On another note, with the caveat that it only takes one, I think Kimbrel is in trouble. The gravy train for expensive closer contracts is over.
No relief pitcher got a contract longer than 3 years last off-seasonMaybe. Is this any different than any other year or are we just paying more attention to it? I honestly don't know.
I meant as far as signing bullpen arms to minor league contracts. Are the Sox signing significantly more this year?No relief pitcher got a contract longer than 3 years last off-season
And just imagine all the warmup music possibilities!more.
Alex Speier @alexspeier 1h1 hour ago
Red Sox signed 28-year-old RHP Brian Ellington to a minor league deal. He’s battled command issues throughout his career but K’d more than a batter per inning in the majors with the Marlins in 2017.
MLBTR blurb:
I really like this approach. Not only does it give us a 33-50 percent chance of at least one "ace-like" pitcher (i.e. a reliever who pitches like a top-rate closer), such a pitcher would be invaluable for helping to restock the farm in 2020.Seems clear that the Brasier find has emboldened DD to go get 6-8 more similar candidates and find the next one.
On another note, with the caveat that it only takes one, I think Kimbrel is in trouble. The gravy train for expensive closer contracts is over.
I hate this approach because 1) we need more than one, and b) 33-50% isn't high enough.I really like this approach. Not only does it give us a 33-50 percent chance of at least one "ace-like" pitcher (i.e. a reliever who pitches like a top-rate closer), such a pitcher would be invaluable for helping to restock the farm in 2020.
I really like this approach. Not only does it give us a 33-50 percent chance of at least one "ace-like" pitcher (i.e. a reliever who pitches like a top-rate closer), such a pitcher would be invaluable for helping to restock the farm in 2020.
33-50% also seems wildly optimistic if the goal is an “ace-like” reliever from a group of cast-offs. I’d guess it’s more like 3.3 to 5%, if even that high.I hate this approach because 1) we need more than one, and b) 33-50% isn't high enough.
Yep. That line of thinking is actually more in line with with the Sox are doing. Not the other way around.Better yet, name all the MR you wanted to sign and we'll check your hit rate at the end of the year. I bet it's worse than 25%.
Do the same thing for MRs who sign big contracts and see how many of them ended up being worth close to the money or as good as they were prior to signing.
There's a very real chance Britton pitches 20 innings next year and sucks.
There is literally not a reliever in baseball for whom there isn't a very real chance of producing 20 innings of suck next year. That's why I wanted to sign guys who were more like 60% to be really good than 25%.Better yet, name all the MR you wanted to sign and we'll check your hit rate at the end of the year. I bet it's worse than 25%.
You better hope that the Red Sox hit on more than 25% of Brazier, Workman, Hembree, and Brewer.Better yet, name all the MR you wanted to sign and we'll check your hit rate at the end of the year. I bet it's worse than 25%.
I consider closers to be middle relievers so include Kimbrel if you want. And a hit would be being worth the money they signed for.You better hope that the Red Sox hit on more than 25% of Brazier, Workman, Hembree, and Brewer.
By middle relievers, do I get to include Britton and Ottavino, because that’s what they signed as.
Also, define “hit rate.” What constitutes success? For anyone signed by the Red Sox to a minor league contract, or Lakins, and Feltman, success would be collecting a day of major league meal money regardless of outcome.
You’re clearly very emotionally invested in this strategy, whereas I’m using statistics and reason. So, it’s not really a productive conversation. I hope for the sake of your mindset, John henry’s bottom line, and future Red Sox draft position the team hits this bullpen lottery they’re playing. The odds are somewhat better than powerball, though how much isn’t clear.
One thing it will do is help set them up to have a cheaper bullpen in 2020. They can identify some minimum salary folks to replace Workman, Hembree, and his mediocre ilk at their 5th year arb salaries. which might be a good thing if it means they can sign one of their big free agents.
Signing 3 guys with a 60% chance to be good has a lower success rate than signing 8 guys with a 25% chance.There is literally not a reliever in baseball for whom there isn't a very real chance of producing 20 innings of suck next year. That's why I wanted to sign guys who were more like 60% to be really good than 25%.
Take any list of the top 10-15 free agent relievers available and I wanted to sign three of them. Didn't really care all that much which ones.
The argument is pretty simple.
1) A chance to repeat as champions for the first time since the MFY
2) Potentially a huge talent dropoff after the season
3) Virtually no chance to stay under the cap
Spend the money to win in 2019. If the talent dropoff before 2020 is such that you don't think you can win, trade those relievers either in the offseason or at the deadline to recoup money and/or get some prospects.
They decided to go a different direction. I hope it works out.
Truck Day is tomorrow.
I should've clarified my earlier position: I like the approach of not signing ML relievers in 2019. Signing minor league deals is not mutually exclusive with signing such ML relievers.You better hope that the Red Sox hit on more than 25% of Brazier, Workman, Hembree, and Brewer.
By middle relievers, do I get to include Britton and Ottavino, because that’s what they signed as.
Also, define “hit rate.” What constitutes success? For anyone signed by the Red Sox to a minor league contract, or Lakins, and Feltman, success would be collecting a day of major league meal money regardless of outcome.
You’re clearly very emotionally invested in this strategy, whereas I’m using statistics and reason. So, it’s not really a productive conversation. I hope for the sake of your mindset, John henry’s bottom line, and future Red Sox draft position the team hits this bullpen lottery they’re playing. The odds are somewhat better than powerball, though how much isn’t clear.
One thing it will do is help set them up to have a cheaper bullpen in 2020. They can identify some minimum salary folks to replace Workman, Hembree, and his mediocre ilk at their 5th year arb salaries. which might be a good thing if it means they can sign one of their big free agents.
Why do you care so much about John Henry’s profit margin?I consider closers to be middle relievers so include Kimbrel if you want. And a hit would be being worth the money they signed for.
I agree. Except the Red Sox have signed 8 guys with less than a 5% chance to be what they need.Signing 3 guys with a 60% chance to be good has a lower success rate than signing 8 guys with a 25% chance.
edit: Of course, they could always do both. So moot point.
I came off too pissy with that request. I’d love to see what the numbers actually are. If you or some other smart person around here ever has time.Regarding the odds I posted, I'll show my work later, I'm a bit busy right now. You're probably right in that I overestimated, but I don't think it is 3-5 percent either. Feel free to remind me.
I don't, but those are the constraints we are working under. Signing one of those guys could mean losing X or JBJ or whoever. It'd be nice if he just spent $300 mil a year but he's not going to.Why do you care so much about John Henry’s profit margin?
I don’t define it that way. I would have signed whichever of Ottavino, Miller, Britton, or Robertson took the smallest contract. We’ll never know who that would have been.
This was exactly what I expected to happen too but pretty clearly they’re treating $246M as a hard cap, just as the rest of baseball is, the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Cubs, everyone. They went over last year (the only team to do so as you know) and won a title, but it seems like they refuse to do so again, certainly not until midseason. But if you accept that they are abiding by the same top line as everyone else currently (unless I missed the joint Machado/Harper to NY press conference at halftime), then they really have had no choices this offseason, Pearce and Eovaldi are both essential against NY and then they were back to $237M.Why do you care so much about John Henry’s profit margin?
I don’t define it that way. I would have signed whichever of Ottavino, Miller, Britton, or Robertson took the smallest contract. We’ll never know who that would have been.
Not really certain that an effective way to build a MLB team is to select a group of free agents from a given position and just simply sign the one who'll take the least amount of money. Not effective, not even remotely realistic.Why do you care so much about John Henry’s profit margin?
I don’t define it that way. I would have signed whichever of Ottavino, Miller, Britton, or Robertson took the smallest contract. We’ll never know who that would have been.
Good thing there are actually effective ways people smarter than you have devised to conduct price discovery then.Not really certain that an effective way to build a MLB team is to select a group of free agents from a given position and just simply sign the one who'll take the least amount of money. Not effective, not even remotely realistic.
The notion of this plan is pretty absurd.
"Hey Zach, DD here, Adam is willing to sign with us for X amount of dollars. But we really like you more for our team, so will you take less than X and sign with us?"
Yeah, the Astros and Cubs are a total mess right now. Nobody wants to play for them.Also absurd is thinking you can fire sale everyone on the roster just to reset the farm.
That is what the numbers tell you to do. In reality you can’t fuck up the culture of your organization and engender bad feelings with the human beings that are the players.
...Win it all this year, then trade everyone next offseason to restock the farm and get under the $206 number for a year. Then start again in 2021.
Well, if by "start again in 2021" you mean suck and finish 20+ games out for 5 straight years, then the Astros and Cubs would be good examples of rebuilds....
Yeah, the Astros and Cubs are a total mess right now. Nobody wants to play for them.
If sucking for 5 straight years didn’t prevent them from being an attractive destination for free agents when they became competitive and willing to pay, why would the Red Sox trading off assets with limited years of control and not resigning free agents after 2019 and then retooling for 2021 be any different?Well, if by "start again in 2021" you mean suck and finish 20+ games out for 5 straight years, then the Astros and Cubs would be good examples of rebuilds.
I think this reflect's the front office thinking, which I agree with. The issue is not so much about spending and the cap in 2019 - I don't think the 246 is a hard cap for 2019. I think it's more that they didn't want to give multi-year deals to the top tier RPs because they'd rather spend that money to retain at least some of the FAs who come up in the next two offseasons.I don't, but those are the constraints we are working under. Signing one of those guys could mean losing X or JBJ or whoever. It'd be nice if he just spent $300 mil a year but he's not going to.
I'd rather they spend money elsewhere than the bullpen. Spending money on bullpen arms is a bad use of resources.
He cleared waivers and is back with Tampa:Oliver Drake needs a home. Local guy, 9.9 K/9, 3.63 xFIP, minimum salary, some AL East experience and set a record for number of teams played for last season.
Why not
Why would we rule it out? DD has struck late before, Kimbrel has to sign somewhere. I’d say the Sox are on a relatively small list of possibilities.Kimbrel, Machado, Harper, etc., still aren't signed. Is it safe to say at this point that Kimbrel is NOT going to be a member of the 2019 Boston Red Sox? Just want to manage expectations here.