Bullpen ‘22

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Can’t help but wonder about how it’s going to start out on opening day.
With- I think- Whitlock and Houck in the rotation at least to start the season, I guess Barnes will be offered the closing job until (if) he loses it.
I’m mostly interested in Valdez as a likely breakout this year.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I love Phillips on his good days, but he’s had too many bad days for me to consider him to be reliable. My quick and dirty “bad outing” meter is “More Runs than innings pitched” and he had those 7 out of 28 appearances last year , including two huge blowups in his last few outings, which may have given me some recency bias.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

My prediction for Opening Day

Starters:
Eovaldi
Pivetta
Wacha
Hill
Houck
Whitlock

Bullpen:
Barnes
Diekman
Brasier
Taylor
Robles
Sawamura
Hernandez
Strahm
Davis

In Worcester but likely in the mix in April:
Valdez
Bazardo
Holland
Feliz
Ort

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Taylor and Robles not likely to be ready for opening day- likely putting Valdez and Bazardo on the roster.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/03/boston-red-sox-opening-day-roster-projecting-the-15-pitchers-13-position-players-alex-cora-will-take-to-new-york-on-april-7.html?fbclid=IwAR3Wlbe4CzQ1cmEIzjMlTIRStdt89AGB9XvOcDKwpAB9DF7RZfA0sHc2kXA

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I love Phillips on his good days, but he’s had too many bad days for me to consider him to be reliable. My quick and dirty “bad outing” meter is “More Runs than innings pitched” and he had those 7 out of 28 appearances last year , including two huge blowups in his last few outings, which may have given me some recency bias.

I’m just expecting a few BP pitchers across all MLB to have sudden and unexpected breakout seasons after several years of inconsistency. Valdez is my Sox pick for that.
I also think Brasier is toast and Hernandez will completely fall apart.
The latter two predictions are more based in reality…..
But hoping that Barnes, Valdez and Sawamura, Robles and Taylor can hold it together until Sale gets back and then Whitlock can go back to the pen. (Though I want him starting full time in ‘23).
I’m guessing by mid season we’ll likely see Ort, Feltman and possibly Wincowski grabbing roles.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I also think Brasier is toast and Hernandez will completely fall apart.
The latter two predictions are more based in reality…..

What "reality" are you basing this on?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

What "reality" are you basing this on?

I'm guessing it's virtual reality

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

I'm guessing it's virtual reality

View: https://youtu.be/4JkIs37a2JE

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What "reality" are you basing this on?

Uh well Hernandez has exhibited significant problems finding the strike zone. Brasier has been injured and the end of last season’s success was far far off from his actual performance. Pure luck.
Is it really that crazy to predict those two will be garbage this season?

Acknowledging that my optimism for Valdez doesn’t have any impact from actual statistical performances from his past- just that when he’s on- he’s fantastic and fun to watch. Again, predictions for the other two have more basis in reality, no?‍

 

[grimshaw]

Brasier has been injured and the end of last season’s success was far far off from his actual performance. Pure luck.
Is it really that crazy to predict those two will be garbage this season?

There is nothing definitive to be gleaned from 16 innings. He was lucky, yes based on his low k-rate and FIP of 4.84. But he started facing major leaguers on September 3rd and then very high quality opponents in the playoffs. Valdez had 40 replacement level innings.

Brasier doesn't have to be much more than a 7th inning guy to deserve a spot on the roster. I'm indifferent if he ever throws another inning, but there is no evidence Valdez is a better alternative.

 

[soxhop411]

Holland not making the team
View: https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/1510353982761410562
View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1510357700890316805

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Bazardo and Hernandez is pretty surprising, no? Seem like most projections had both making the team. Bodes well for Crawford, I’d think.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

It's interesting. I'm guessing Phillips Valdez and Kutter Crawford make the club. I was hearing Flemming and Bradfo saying that Tyler Danish might be in the mix as well, but that would be underwhelming imo (in a bullpen full of underwhelming options).

Pretty demoralizing to see how badly Hernandez has missed the mark on expectations. Curious what his 2022 looks like. With a plethora of lefties (including Taylor who's working back from injury), as well as a righty like Robles who will be added once his visa issues are resolved and he gets some throwing in, Darwinzon has a lot of work to do to even sniff Fenway.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What "reality" are you basing this on?

Actual

 

[Average Game James]

View: https://twitter.com/middlebrooks/status/1510374433818566657?s=21&t=vkv62gViuo0QIEE1WwoUoQ


Middlebrooks tweeting Holland will accept AAA assignment

 

[DeadlySplitter]

It's not what you want.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/04/02/sports/red-sox-reliever-matt-barnes-working-through-velocity-concerns/?event=event25

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Anyone care to translate?

View: https://i.imgur.com/qms09Cl.mp4

 

[Jerry’s Curl]

Cora looks like Mr. Potato Head with a beard in that picture.

 

[nvalvo]

Kutter Crawford makes the team!

I like it. He was nasty in LIDOM.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Got this off my roto league’s site, re Whitlock:

(52 mins ago) Red Sox manager Alex Cora confirmed Monday that Whitlock will serve as a piggyback pitcher behind fifth starter Rich Hill to begin the season, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports.
According to Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, Cora has said the goal is to get more than 70 innings out of Whitlock for the second year in a row, and deploying the 25-year-old as a quasi-sixth starter rather than a traditional reliever should help accomplish that. The arrangement should also help ease the burden on the 42-year-old Hill, who is coming off a season with the Rays and Mets in which he covered 158.2 innings, but otherwise hasn't been durable for the majority of his career. Since Whitlock has been steadily increasing his pitch count throughout the spring, he's expected to be available for an extended relief outing behind starter Nathan Eovaldi in Thursday's Opening Day game against the Yankees, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. With the benefit of a team off day Friday, Whitlock should then be ready to pitch on four days' rest when Hill's first turn in the rotation comes up April 12 in Detroit.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

So using Hill / Whitlock one out of every five games means Whitlock is going to be unavailable most games, right? And Houck is in the rotation? Man, gotta hope at least a few Barnes is right, Sawa throws strikes, Brasier bounces back, and Crawford can become this years Whitlock comes true.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So using Hill / Whitlock one out of every five games means Whitlock is going to be unavailable most games, right? And Houck is in the rotation? Man, gotta hope at least a few Barnes is right, Sawa throws strikes, Brasier bounces back, and Crawford can become this years Whitlock comes true.

Kinda depends on how much he's needed for the Hill starts, no? If he's going to more or less be called on to complete most/all of Hill's starts (say 4 innings or so), then yes, he's probably not going to be available otherwise. But if there are games where Hill goes deeper or they're up by enough to let the bottom rung guys close it out instead of wasting Whitlock on a 5+ run lead, he'll probably be available more often for other situations.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, it just seems like a really inefficient way to use your best reliever. If they have that little confidence in Hill, why start him at all…or, why not paid him with someone like Crawford and free up Whitlock’s usage to be more high leverage. Unless the goal is for Whitlock to be starting at some point during the season.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Yeah, it just seems like a really inefficient way to use your best reliever. If they have that little confidence in Hill, why start him at all…or, why not paid him with someone like Crawford and free up Whitlock’s usage to be more high leverage. Unless the goal is for Whitlock to be starting at some point during the season.

Presumably when Hill goes on the DL for the 35th time in his career. And if by some miracle, Hill manages to stay healthy, there's plenty of other candidates in our "held together with duct tape" rotation.

Of course, moving Whitlock into the rotation because a non-Hill pitcher gets hurt would just raise the question of who fill the new role of Hill's piggyback pitcher...

 

[rhswanzey]

Tyler Danish makes the team; Chris Sale to 60-day DL to open a spot on the 40.

The Red Sox announced this afternoon they’ve selected reliever Tyler Danish to the big league roster. In order to open space on the 40-man roster, ace Chris Sale has been placed on the 60-day injured list.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/04/red-sox-select-tyler-danish-place-chris-sale-on-60-day-injured-list.html

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Anyone know anything about Danish? Great numbers last year in AAA (15 bb, 79 k in 70 innings). His best k and bb rates in his minor league career by far. Assuming he figured something out, changed his pitch selection, etc?

To answer my own question, here’s some info

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/red-sox-sign-tyler-danish-to-minors-deal.html

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone know anything about Danish?

A doughnut with no hole.

Here's hoping he puts a lot of doughnuts on the scoreboard.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Anyone know anything about Danish? Great numbers last year in AAA (15 bb, 79 k in 70 innings). His best k and bb rates in his minor league career by far. Assuming he figured something out, changed his pitch selection, etc?

To answer my own question, here’s some info

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/02/red-sox-sign-tyler-danish-to-minors-deal.html

He’s got a sweet sinker but when it doesn’t sink he gives up too many lemons.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

A doughnut with no hole.

Here's hoping he puts a lot of doughnuts on the scoreboard.

Kinda cheesy.

 

[soxhop411]

Jake diekman seems to be a good quote
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1513364138461904897

Jake Diekman is kind of intense! Do you want to be the closer? “I don’t really give two shits.” Can I quote you on that? “Yeah, do it, I don’t really care.”

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm not anywhere near as worried about the bullpen as others here. I've said on other threads, but relevant here... that if the Sox can just not fall too far back over the first two months, and IF Sale and Paxton can make it back around then, the weaker links in the bullpen can be plugged by Houck and Wacha.
That said... I still think that Brasier is one of the weak links but he's got enough time and success at the ML level that will make Cora and Bloom stick with him longer. Obviously general super SSS applies but overall the BP looks decent.

 

[BaseballJones]

Well the bullpen the first three games, against one of the best offenses in the sport:

5.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 8 k
2.1 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k
5.2 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 6 k

TOT: 13.0 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 1 er, 5 bb, 15 k, 0.69 era, 1.08 whip, 10.4 k/9

So not too bad.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Well the bullpen the first three games, against one of the best offenses in the sport:

5.0 ip, 4 h, 3 r, 1 er, 4 bb, 8 k
2.1 ip, 0 h, 0 r, 0 er, 0 bb, 1 k
5.2 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 6 k

TOT: 13.0 ip, 9 h, 3 r, 1 er, 5 bb, 15 k, 0.69 era, 1.08 whip, 10.4 k/9

So not too bad.

Lowest bullpen ERA in the league at the moment. Who would have guessed the one earned run given up so far would be by Whitlock?

 

[BaseballJones]

Lowest bullpen ERA in the league at the moment. Who would have guessed the one earned run given up so far would be by Whitlock?

Yeah and that was a cheapie that's a homer in like 3 MLB parks. I mean, it counts, but that's a fairly routine fly out in Fenway.

 

[burstnbloom]

Jake diekman seems to be a good quote
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1513364138461904897

Yikes. Diekman, indeed. He was nails last night but I can't imagine he stays in that role. I think his HR/FB rate last year was flukey and will regress. He's likely to be a useful guy in the late inning rotation but it's hard to hold down a major league closers spot when you put as many guys on base as he has for his career.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Bumping the bullpen thread. So far it's been a strength. Anchored, not surprisingly, by Whitlock- but Diekman and others really looking strong. I was never too worried about the pen as I tend to think it's a crap shoot and finding "good" relievers through FA or trade will often blow up. So far I'm really liking how Bloom has approached constructing bullpens.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Did you see Friday 's game? How about Wednesday?

It is all SSS, but overall I expect the current bullpen to be below average as currently manned.

 

[RIrooter09]

Did you see Friday 's game? How about Wednesday?

It is all SSS, but overall I expect the current bullpen to be below average as currently manned.

Based on what? Fangraphs had us projected 9th this year, and our relievers are 5th in WAR so far. How do you get to a bottom half bullpen?

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

9th seems more likely based on what I have seen. Results thru 9 games are not telling, IMHO

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Did you see Friday 's game? How about Wednesday?

It is all SSS, but overall I expect the current bullpen to be below average as currently manned.

Sorry. No and no.
I was looking at general stats…. WHiP and ERA are holding. Better than I figured.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Kutter Crawford certainly doesn’t appear to be ready for prime time. Seabold or Winckowski to replace him perhaps? Danish? Not a ton of options on the 40-man.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Kutter Crawford certainly doesn’t appear to be ready for prime time. Seabold or Winckowski to replace him perhaps? Danish? Not a ton of options on the 40-man.

Josh Taylor has already made one rehab appearance (yesterday) in Worcester. Wouldn't shock me if they skipped any further rehab and brought him up tomorrow in place of Crawford.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

That seems likely, although a fourth lefty (even though a few of them don’t have significant splits) seems like overkill. Until Barnes is useful, I think there will be a significant need for a RH. Whitlock is great but when he’s not available you are really praying on Brasier and Sawa.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

That seems likely, although a fourth lefty (even though a few of them don’t have significant splits) seems like overkill. Until Barnes is useful, I think there will be a significant need for a RH. Whitlock is great but when he’s not available you are really praying on Brasier and Sawa.

Taylor's coming back regardless. Crawford throwing 40+ pitches today renders him unavailable for at least a couple days. He's the obvious choice to swap with Taylor just to get another fresh arm out there. If they want to balance the handedness of the pen with another move, I suppose they can. The new limit on the number of times a player can be optioned might come into play by giving guys a bit more rope each time they're up.

The other thing to keep in mind is they're going to be reducing the roster by two spots in a couple weeks. They're probably going to try to hold off on any kind of significant shuffling of the pen until that point, and use the next couple weeks to figure out who the odd men out are going to be come May 1.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

All good points. I’d imagine Taylor replaces Kutter, Seabold or Winckowski replaces Houck for the Toronto start. Once they have to cut down rosters, I’d imagine Valdez goes and probably Davis? Ultimately, with this rotation it seems like the bullpen is going to continue to be a mess. Carrying a short reliever in Barnes who they don’t trust in any situation of significance is going to be really difficult with a 26 man roster. The long but infrequent outings from Whitlock pose problems in the 2/3 games he’s not available to pitch in.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

All good points. I’d imagine Taylor replaces Kutter, Seabold or Winckowski replaces Houck for the Toronto start. Once they have to cut down rosters, I’d imagine Valdez goes and probably Davis? Ultimately, with this rotation it seems like the bullpen is going to continue to be a mess. Carrying a short reliever in Barnes who they don’t trust in any situation of significance is going to be really difficult with a 26 man roster. The long but infrequent outings from Whitlock pose problems in the 2/3 games he’s not available to pitch in.

Tell me what I'm missing from the stats... but hasn't Valdez been pretty impressive. 8K's to 1BB. no runs allowed. Of course in just 5 IP's but enough IMO to warrant some higher leverage usage, no?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I think Valdez has been fine, he just seems like the most likely candidate to be sent down based on options / contract / usage. Not necessarily fair, but it is what it is.

You’ve got a rotation of guys who don’t provide length, and a pen of Whitlock and a bunch of short relievers. Not ideal.

Houck to the pen could be one potential solution, but then you need another starter. Can Seabold be that guy?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think Valdez has been fine, he just seems like the most likely candidate to be sent down based on options / contract / usage. Not necessarily fair, but it is what it is.

You’ve got a rotation of guys who don’t provide length, and a pen of Whitlock and a bunch of short relievers. Not ideal.

Houck to the pen could be one potential solution, but then you need another starter. Can Seabold be that guy?

I don't see them changing the rotation to shore up the bullpen. Even in this age of openers and short starts, the rotation is still more important than the bullpen. Barring an injury, I don't see them bringing in a new starter (other than perhaps putting Whitlock in the rotation) until Sale or Paxton is ready, or someone gets hurt.

 

[BaseballJones]

The bullpen consists of:

1 awesome reliever (Whitlock)
2 pretty darned good relivers (Robles, Diekman)
3 decent relievers (Brasier, Valdez, Strahm)
3 meh relievers (Sawamura, Davis, Barnes)
1 pretty bad reliever (Crawford)

A bullpen of Whitlock, Robles, Diekman, and Brasier is ok, but they really need more out of the other guys. Some have better ability (Barnes, Strahm, Sawamura), and it would be great if they would be part of the solution simply by being better. But they very well may have to dip into the minors for intriguing arms (i.e., Bello, Winckowski) or acquire guys from outside the organization.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don't see them changing the rotation to shore up the bullpen. Even in this age of openers and short starts, the rotation is still more important than the bullpen. Barring an injury, I don't see them bringing in a new starter (other than perhaps putting Whitlock in the rotation) until Sale or Paxton is ready, or someone gets hurt.

I think this is probably right, in that the biggest problem right now is the crappy short starts from guys like Hill and Pivetta, and the impact that has on the pen.