Bullpen ‘22

Petagine in a Bottle

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There were any number of RH relievers who signed for similar or lower AAV than Diekman. How about Adam Ottavino? They haven’t been able to replace his role in the team as of yet and he would have been more useful than a 4th lefty (fifth if you count Darwinzon who is pretty similar to Diekman). Or maybe Ryan Tepera? Brad Boxberger?

i dunno, Lose, do you think that Bloom’s off-season was ideal? Can you enlighten us Eeyore’s on what we are missing?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Adam Ottavino might have been a much better option. So far his overall numbers are better than Diekman's. I see he's making $4 million, which is about the same as Diekman is making, but maybe they wanted a lefty instead? Or having had him last year maybe they thought Diekman had a better chance of panning out?

I don't know if Bloom's off-season was ideal. We aren't 3 weeks into the season yet and I never give up on a team that quickly and start looking for change. You raise some good possibilities of alternatives. I was responding to a "I don't like what he did but I don't have any alternatives" post. Through 6 outings, Diekman was the Second Coming here at SoSH. Through 7 he was a great pickup. Through 8 outings now he's shit. I think it's too soon to be making judgements on the bullpen as a whole or on any individual performers, especially the new guys. Which is why I am not ready to give up on Diekman or Strahm. Guys who have been around a few years like Brasier, I don't think we have to wait much longer to judge. It feels like that post picking out those two guys was kind of reactionary to last night's outcome. Kind of game-thready if you know what I mean
 
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Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not even sure what happened last night.... I was watching- the Sox took a 3 run lead into the 9th. I went to the bathroom, got a snack and it was tied. The 10th inning was obviously going to go in the Jays favor.
Something looked like it broke last night on that Sox team. It's still way, way, way, way (I can't emphasize this enough) too early to write off this team (even as currently constructed in all it's parts) but I could hear a lot of gas escaping last night.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Fair points, Lose. Strahm has been very solid and looks to be a good pickup. I think Diekman will be fine, or not, but his signing wasn’t outrageous or anything. It’s the building and overall composition of the pen I’m confused by. Adding Strahm and Diekman are fine, in a vacuum, but less clear what the plan for the pen is when you’ve already got Davis, Taylor, and Hernandez. I didn’t love Ottavino or anything but he got a lot of big outs for this team; they seem to be hoping Brasier can take on that role but that seems like a leap.

I think the lockout and short spring really screwed things up, but they need to clarify roles.
 

Ganthem

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I decided to go poking at numbers and I am probably missing something, but here goes. Diekman has pitched 172 innings vs lefties and 289 innings vs righties. His xfip vs lefties is 3.66 and his xfip vs righties is 3.70. Matt Strahm has pitched 82 innings against lefties and 185 innings vs righties. His XFIP vs lefties is 4.24 and versus righties it is 4.21. Austin Davis has 44.1 innings against Lefties and 55 innings vs Righties. Against Lefties he has put up a 3.99 xfip and a 4.44 xfip vs righties. Josh Taylor only has 24 innings against lefties and 23 against Righties. His XFIP vs lefties is 3.23 and vs righties it is 4.10

My take away from this is that Diekman was signed because the belief was he was the best arm available in their price category to get out lefties or righties. Strahm was signed because every team signs a player like Strahm and hopes something clicks or they have a career year. Austin Davis is in the same category as Strahm. The wild card here is Josh Taylor. If he can improve his number against righties a bit you have a potential 8th or 9th inning bullpen arm. The right handers who seem to be capable of getting the job done currently are Robles and Valdez. Currently the team has three relievers they can count on with one potentially on the way. I think the team put a lot of eggs in the Barnes basket and when he was not able to right himself that turned into a massive blow for this team.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Fair points, Lose. Strahm has been very solid and looks to be a good pickup. I think Diekman will be fine, or not, but his signing wasn’t outrageous or anything. It’s the building and overall composition of the pen I’m confused by. Adding Strahm and Diekman are fine, in a vacuum, but less clear what the plan for the pen is when you’ve already got Davis, Taylor, and Hernandez. I didn’t love Ottavino or anything but he got a lot of big outs for this team; they seem to be hoping Brasier can take on that role but that seems like a leap.

I think the lockout and short spring really screwed things up, but they need to clarify roles.
Agree with all the above. Just don't understand their Brasier love (I know what he did in 2018), or who they thought would step up to be the closer. Robles has looked good in streaks, but he just doesn't seem to be The Guy to me
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I don’t know if it’s Brasier love or just the least objectionable option. At this point, they seem to want to save Robles for late in games (esp when Whitlock is unavailable) and they don’t trust Sawamura to have to get multiple outs with runners on. Barnes is on the roster, but not trusted in any kind of situation of significance unless nobody else is left. Valdez and Kutter are long guys / mop up? So Brasier kind of ends up being that guy when they need an out relatively early in games and a righty is up.

Ultimately, they probably need to give the lefties more of a chance against tough righties. Granted, it’s not all that appealing to let a Strahm or Diekman try to get through the heart of the Jay order though.

The other options are to keep Whitlock and or Houck in the pen and use them more often but in shorter stints. Keeping Whitlock in the pen and calling up Seabold or Winckowski to start instead may have worked out better?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If Sawamura is that much of a risk, does he really have a role on this team beyond being a RHP? He might be a DFA candidate if they can't find a trade partner.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They could send Sawamura to the minors, but who replaces him?

Minor leaguers on the 40-man are Bello, Groome, Hernandez, Mata, Schreiber, Seabold, and Windkowski
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They could send Sawamura to the minors, but who replaces him?

Minor leaguers on the 40-man are Bello, Groome, Hernandez, Mata, Schreiber, Seabold, and Windkowski
Taylor?

Or are we assuming someone like Danish or Crawford goes for him? Two guys still have to go by Sunday without being replaced (though technically they could be position players).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Taylor?

Or are we assuming someone like Danish or Crawford goes for him? Two guys still have to go by Sunday without being replaced (though technically they could be position players).
Good point, it’s a little confusing with the covid stuff, but once we have to get down to 13 pitchers by end of May, I’d assume we are looking at this (assuming perfect health

Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill, Wacha
Whitlock, Houck
Taylor, Davis, Diekman, Strahm
Brasier, Barnes, Robles

Sawamura, Danish, Valdez, Crawford

So long term, Brasier and Sawamura are probably fighting for one spot, assuming they stick with four lefties in the pen.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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There were any number of RH relievers who signed for similar or lower AAV than Diekman. How about Adam Ottavino? They haven’t been able to replace his role in the team as of yet and he would have been more useful than a 4th lefty (fifth if you count Darwinzon who is pretty similar to Diekman). Or maybe Ryan Tepera? Brad Boxberger?

i dunno, Lose, do you think that Bloom’s off-season was ideal? Can you enlighten us Eeyore’s on what we are missing?
Cut and paste from: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/following-former-red-sox-2022-edition.35661/page-2#post-4974597

51395

There is almost no such thing as a sure middle reliever in Major League Baseball
 

BaseballJones

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True, except for all the guys the Rays acquire. Ugh.
I know, right? Here's their bullpen guys' eras:

Kittredge: 1.46
Springs: 0.69
Wisler: 1.50
Adam: 1.80
Thompson: 0.00
Feyereisen: 0.00
Sanders: 1.80
Beeks: 0.00
Fleming: 6.32

So one guy is pitching poorly and the rest have been absolutely lights out. Year after year they manage to do this (not quite THIS ^^, but yeah they always have a great bullpen).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well I think my sunny optimism regarding Barnes has collapsed.
WTF happened to him? My recollection was he signed that contract and immediately turned to garbage.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Barnes is a 32 year old reliever with a career ERA of 4.14; he’s never had a season with an ERA below 3.65. He strikes out and walks a ton of guys. He’s had flashes of brilliance but has never put it all to whether; Bloom bet that his first half last year was real and bet wrong.
 

Rovin Romine

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Seemingly within minutes. He got dinged up pretty good in the AS Game prior and hasn’t been the same.
Mmm. He signed the extension July 11. He only really started to tail off about a month after that - August 7 during the Toronto double-header. In the 7 games between he gave up one run (zero earned runs) and picked up 6 saves and a win.
2021 game logs: https://www.mlb.com/player/matt-barnes-598264?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2021

Last year he had COVID Aug. 30 and then injured himself during his rehab. That may have complicated his return, but whatever caused him to go off-kilter in early August would be independent of that.

FWIW, in recent years Barnes usually started hot and cooled off. Check out his career splits: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=barnema01&year=Career&t=p

I'd be curious to know if there's a pattern to cumulative pitches, or number of outings, or what have you. Because career ERA definitely slumps later in the season.
 

Coachster

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Mmm. He signed the extension July 11. He only really started to tail off about a month after that - August 7 during the Toronto double-header. In the 7 games between he gave up one run (zero earned runs) and picked up 6 saves and a win.
2021 game logs: https://www.mlb.com/player/matt-barnes-598264?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2021

Last year he had COVID Aug. 30 and then injured himself during his rehab. That may have complicated his return, but whatever caused him to go off-kilter in early August would be independent of that.

FWIW, in recent years Barnes usually started hot and cooled off. Check out his career splits: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=barnema01&year=Career&t=p

I'd be curious to know if there's a pattern to cumulative pitches, or number of outings, or what have you. Because career ERA definitely slumps later in the season.
If that's the case, he should be DFA'd soon, right? If this is his hot start, I'd hate to see what he'll have left after the ASB.

Seriously, what's the case for keeping him? He's completely ineffective. In 5 of his 9 appearances this season, he's given up at least a run. We can't use him in any high or medium leverage situation. Yeah, I know we'll have to eat the money, but when we're fighting for respectability, almost anybody else could do what he's done.
 

Rovin Romine

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If that's the case, he should be DFA'd soon, right? If this is his hot start, I'd hate to see what he'll have left after the ASB.

Seriously, what's the case for keeping him? He's completely ineffective. In 5 of his 9 appearances this season, he's given up at least a run. We can't use him in any high or medium leverage situation. Yeah, I know we'll have to eat the money, but when we're fighting for respectability, almost anybody else could do what he's done.
Possibly the coaching/pitching staff thinks he's fixable.

Per Baseball Savant, the big difference this year is the BA v. his fastball, which is in the 93 mph range, down from 96.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If you DFA Barnes, who replaces him? It’s not as if there are a ton of compelling candidates to replace him in Pawtucket; and it’s not really clear that Barnes is any worse than Sawamura, Brasier, Crawford, etc.
 

moondog80

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Can Barnes be sent to AAA (while still being paid)? I don't want him in any big roles right now and the money isn't *that* substantial (about 10.5 mil if we include his 2024 buyout), but it's not nothing either, I'd hate to give up entirely over 15 or so bad innings.
 

Max Power

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Can Barnes be sent to AAA (while still being paid)? I don't want him in any big roles right now and the money isn't *that* substantial (about 10.5 mil if we include his 2024 buyout), but it's not nothing either, I'd hate to give up entirely over 15 or so bad innings.
I'd hope they could IL him. There must be a physical problem if he's lost 5 MPH on his fastball from last fall. If it's not an injury and this is just who he is now, he should be released. He's effectively a one pitch pitcher.
 

curly2

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It's time to make Houck a closer/late-inning fireman. Using him as Hill's piggyback is a waste.

If they're going to start Hill and need a piggyback, call up Connor Seabold for the role. He's been pitching great at Worcester.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If that's the case, he should be DFA'd soon, right? If this is his hot start, I'd hate to see what he'll have left after the ASB.

Seriously, what's the case for keeping him? He's completely ineffective. In 5 of his 9 appearances this season, he's given up at least a run. We can't use him in any high or medium leverage situation. Yeah, I know we'll have to eat the money, but when we're fighting for respectability, almost anybody else could do what he's done.
The case to keeping him is 100% the money. They've committed 2 years and $19M to him, they're going to exhaust all other possible options before they simply cut him loose. I know it's relative chump change but I think it's only the fans that think it is panic time at Fenway right now.

I think the next step if they think he can't work his way out of it is a phantom IL stint and a rehab assignment in Worcester to try something new. At the very least, then he's not hurting the team while trying to solve whatever his issue is.
 

RoDaddy

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Seems like we're pretty much closer by committee this year but has this approach ever really worked for us? Didn’t we give up on the Scott Williamson etc experiment in 2003 to get a real closer in Foulke – followed by the amazing Paps, Koji and Kimbrel stretch, with all of these guys keying championships?

Note: edited to closer by committee
 
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tims4wins

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Seems like we're pretty much bullpen by committee this year but has this approach ever really worked for us? Didn’t we give up on the Scott Williamson etc experiment in 2003 to get a real closer in Foulke – followed by the amazing Paps, Koji and Kimbrel stretch, with all of these guys keying championships?
Nitpick / pet peeve but all bullpens are by committee (e.g., long man, LOOGY, 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, closer). I think you mean closer by committee.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Nitpick / pet peeve but all bullpens are by committee (e.g., long man, LOOGY, 7th inning guy, 8th inning guy, closer). I think you mean closer by committee.
Thanks, beat me to it as this is also a pet peeve of mine.

My sense is that Cora has been giving auditions, waiting for someone to emerge as the closer, and no one has taken the reins as of yet. Robles has been close-ish, but then he gets wild like last night. Cora has shown a preference for having a designated closer in the past, so I don't see why that would have changed. He just doesn't know who to use in that role yet.
 

AB in DC

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Bullpen by xERA

Strahm - 1.27
Valdez - 1.30
Diekman - 1.55
Whitlock - 1.73
Robles - 1.93
Barnes - 2.93
Sawamura - 3.33
Davis - 7.36
Brasier - 8.31
Crawford - 8.41
Three weeks later...

Strahm - 1.26
Schrieber - 1.42 (only 26 batters faced)
Barnes - 3.41 (!)
Diekman - 4.02
Sawamura - 4.13
Houck - 4.18
Danish - 4.44
Davis - 4.50
Valdez - 4.53
Robles - 6.27
Brasier - 6.75
Crawford - 9.21
That’s seven above-average relievers, with five of them putting up elite numbers so far.
Two above-average relievers (if you count Schreiber), then Barnes, then...yecch.
 

TheYellowDart5

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Andrew Politi is getting the bump to Worcester along with Bello after 13.1 IP with 20 strikeouts and three walks in relief. I would guess that he's the top internal bullpen option right now. Brasier, Danish and Houck all have options, so any of them could be sent down if and when Politi is ready, though they'd have to clear 40-man space too; neither Brasier nor Danish seems like a big loss if they go with a DFA instead, or they could cut Sawamura.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Andrew Politi is getting the bump to Worcester along with Bello after 13.1 IP with 20 strikeouts and three walks in relief. I would guess that he's the top internal bullpen option right now. Brasier, Danish and Houck all have options, so any of them could be sent down if and when Politi is ready, though they'd have to clear 40-man space too; neither Brasier nor Danish seems like a big loss if they go with a DFA instead, or they could cut Sawamura.
Yeah, him or German.
 

Ganthem

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I doubt Houck will be sent down, though I do wonder what would happen if Cora stopped jerking him around and actually used him as a starter. In other words build up his pitch count and see if he can get through the order a third time. At this point I would rather dump Braiser then Danish, though I think if they were at that point they would try Seabold or Winckowski (however you spell his name) in the bullpen.
 

simplicio

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Huh, had no idea Brasier still had options. He'd look so much better in a woosox uni.
 

Rovin Romine

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I doubt Houck will be sent down, though I do wonder what would happen if Cora stopped jerking him around and actually used him as a starter. In other words build up his pitch count and see if he can get through the order a third time. At this point I would rather dump Braiser then Danish, though I think if they were at that point they would try Seabold or Winckowski (however you spell his name) in the bullpen.
Houck made a personal choice to be unavailable as a starter against a significant division rival.
 

Daniel_Son

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I doubt Houck will be sent down, though I do wonder what would happen if Cora stopped jerking him around and actually used him as a starter. In other words build up his pitch count and see if he can get through the order a third time. At this point I would rather dump Braiser then Danish, though I think if they were at that point they would try Seabold or Winckowski (however you spell his name) in the bullpen.
Houck made a personal choice to be unavailable as a starter against a significant division rival.
Yeah but that doesn't mean his career as a starter should be over. We play 6 games in Toronto out of the next ~130 games. That's 1, maybe 2 starts, which they can easily schedule around in advance. Fact is, the guy has been much better as a starter - 3.22 ERA starting vs. 4.87 in relief. Using him in the bullpen would be a waste of his talent.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah but that doesn't mean his career as a starter should be over. We play 6 games in Toronto out of the next ~130 games. That's 1, maybe 2 starts, which they can easily schedule around in advance. Fact is, the guy has been much better as a starter - 3.22 ERA starting vs. 4.87 in relief. Using him in the bullpen would be a waste of his talent.
Who is saying his career as a starter is over?

He got bumped from the rotation because he made himself unavailable for the Toronto series, which allowed for Whitlock to step in and rightfully stick. The only argument right now for Houck to be back in the rotation is the fact that Wacha is on the IL, but the extra off-days last week allowed the team to more or less work around his absence. And now Wacha is expected back on Friday so the rotation is going to be full again.

Houck will get another shot at starting. It's just going to take another injury or serious under-performance for him to get a chance. In the meantime, he can and should be an effective weapon in the bullpen.
 

Ganthem

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Who is saying his career as a starter is over?

He got bumped from the rotation because he made himself unavailable for the Toronto series, which allowed for Whitlock to step in and rightfully stick. The only argument right now for Houck to be back in the rotation is the fact that Wacha is on the IL, but the extra off-days last week allowed the team to more or less work around his absence. And now Wacha is expected back on Friday so the rotation is going to be full again.

Houck will get another shot at starting. It's just going to take another injury or serious under-performance for him to get a chance. In the meantime, he can and should be an effective weapon in the bullpen.
I am not arguing that Houck is the odd man out once Wacha gets back, but Houck should have been starting last Sunday and he should have been allowed to go five innings assuming he wasn't shitting the bed. The Sox have a crap bullpen and Cora's brillant idea was to have a bullpen game? It just seemed kind of obtuse to me.