McWilliams: When Whitlock returns, he'll be in the pen as a multi-innings guy
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1543335946824859649
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/byJulianMack/status/1543335946824859649
Bullpen ‘22
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
I wonder if this means back to being a guy who pitches multiple innings but then is off for 2-3 days? Not the worst thing in the world, especially if that is when he is most effective.
Well, no pitcher these days is going to be asked to throw multiple innings without a couple days off after, so yeah, that's likely the plan. On the one hand, if he's taking the ball in the 5th or 6th and bridging a close game to Schreiber/Strahm/Houck in the 8th/9th (thus avoiding repeats of yesterday's troubles), that's a plus. On the other hand, if he's doing that one day and then they have to turn to the likes of Robles and Sawamura to cover the 5th/6th/7th in the next couple games, I hope they survive playing with that fire more often than not. Ideally, guys like Pivetta, Eovaldi, and Wacha (maybe Sale?) are pitching into or maybe through the 7th so they only need Whitlock every 3-4 days anyway.
(Plucking this post from the main season thread in case people wanna talk about the bullpen specifically)
Good point. Hopefully this can quell the calls to DFA Sawamura awhile. Also, nice stuff from Kaleb Ort. His outing felt like low-lev mop-up duty at the time, but he handled the heart of the Yankee lineup and then some. [Edit: @Petagine in a Bottle beat me to this exact sentiment].
The guy I think we could gush more about is John Schreiber. He's looking more and more like our own version of Clay Holmes or Ryan Helsley -- an out-of-nowhere guy who becomes one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. The Eck-ish 0.62 ERA is a little low, but he's hardly a product of luck (1.79 xERA, 4th best in MLB) and has no discernible split. What are the odds he's our lights-out closer until 2027?
Responding to the bolded.... I'd say about the same odds that he turns into Hansel Robles. Probably better odds that he turns into a decent middle relief arm for 2-3 more years at best. But man... yeah, thrilled with what he's done so far and hoping he can keep it up.
Man, I really hope he doesn't go full Robles.
Here's another way of looking at it. There have been 155 Red Sox reliever-seasons of at least 30 innings this century. Here are the top ten ranked by FIP:
1. Craig Kimbrel, 2017 (1.42 FIP)
2. Jonathan Papelbon, 2011
3. Koji Uehara, 2013
4. Andrew Miller, 2014
5. Junichi Tazawa, 2012
6. John Schreiber, 2022 (1.88 FIP)
7. Jonathan Papelbon, 2008
8. Jonathan Papelbon, 2006
9. Koji Uehara, 2015
10. Jonathan Papelbon, 2007 (2.45 FIP)
There's nothing about Schreiber's season that appears to have lucked him into this group. In 30 innings, his 0.30 HR/9 ranks second-best of those ten seasons (Taz). His 57.0 GB% is highest among them, and his swinging strike rate (15.7%) is fifth among them. The only thing that seems like an anomaly is that no one had heard of him before May.
I was curious how recent MLB relievers that put up comparably excellent seasons might have aged, so I patched together some some key metrics of Schreiber's season compared with elite reliever-seasons of the past 10 years. Here's a list of those, containing A) less than a 2.50 FIP (Schreiber's is 1.88), B) less than 10% BB rate (Schreiber's is 5.5%), C) greater than 50% GB rate (Schreiber's is 57%), and D) a greater than 30% K rate (Schreiber's is 33.9%). Here's that list, sorted by age:
Carson Smith, 2015 (age 25)
Zach Britton, 2015 (27)
Dellin Betances, 2016 (28)
John Schreiber, 2022 (28)
Brett Cecil, 2015 (28)
Ryan Pressly, 2018 (29)
Blake Treinen, 2018 (30)
Taylor Rogers, 2021 (30)
Andrew Miller, 2016 (31)
Zach Duke, 2014 (age 31)
Ryan Pressly, 2021 (32)
Ryan Madson, 2017 (age 36)
It's baseball, so whether Schreiber can sustain this level going forward is anyone's guess. And this is admittedly a quick and dirty methodology. But considering his age and the level he's performing at, guys like this don't typically get worse out of nowhere (a/k/a "turn into Hansel Robles") -- they just eventually get hurt (Smith, Cecil, Betances). Schreiber's not a flamethrower, which could help keep him healthy. But he's also got a strange release point and funky delivery, so who knows. But I do think there's a good chance he's more of a Blake Treinen than a Hansel Robles, and one that we've got for the next half-decade.
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There's been several posts in other threads lauding the quality of the Tampa bullpen the past few nights, and rightly so, compared to the shitshow that the Sox has mostly been (few exceptions.... too few). But what has Tampa done differently than what Bloom has done? The strategies of putting together a pen are almost identical but Tampa's had more luck. And basically, that's it for me: Luck. Last season the best BP arm for the Sox without question was Whitlock... but who the hell saw that coming? Maybe some hope that he'd be a "good reliever", but not what he ended up as. This season it's been Schreiber. Who saw that coming? Back in '18 it was Brasier.
A bunch of posters here have demanded that the Sox go out and get some established bullpen arms- but who? To me, those pitchers are very few and far between and cost a fortune and still have a lot of question marks. We've seen more than enough times a trade mid-season for a BP arm who was showing great peripherals and good results and would have been expected to continue after the trade-move but then flat out suck. Other times, expected middling relievers turn into great pickups- last year's Hansel Robles!
I don't know what Bloom really should do here. Tampa seems to just be working. Boston doesn't as much.
The really great relievers that posters here want will cost a major mL piece. Should Bloom look in that direction or to try and find another Hansel Robles? Personally I think the best option is to keep looking at guys in the minors- Crawford, Winchowski, Ort, etc.... who I think are more likely to pitch well for no provable reason at all.
A bunch of posters here have demanded that the Sox go out and get some established bullpen arms- but who? To me, those pitchers are very few and far between and cost a fortune and still have a lot of question marks. We've seen more than enough times a trade mid-season for a BP arm who was showing great peripherals and good results and would have been expected to continue after the trade-move but then flat out suck. Other times, expected middling relievers turn into great pickups- last year's Hansel Robles!
I don't know what Bloom really should do here. Tampa seems to just be working. Boston doesn't as much.
The really great relievers that posters here want will cost a major mL piece. Should Bloom look in that direction or to try and find another Hansel Robles? Personally I think the best option is to keep looking at guys in the minors- Crawford, Winchowski, Ort, etc.... who I think are more likely to pitch well for no provable reason at all.
Has Tampa really had more luck? Just to cite a stat that people like to get worked up over with the Sox pen, the Rays have 22 blown saves this year (most in baseball). I'm not sure looking at a snapshot of the current series means a whole lot.
That said, I agree that desperately trying to get a "name" reliever isn't the answer. The volatility of relievers just doesn't lend itself to splashing big in the market.
Interesting about Schreiber. I had thought he was more of an unsuccessful journeyman than he is, even though he's old-ish (28). He'd been pretty good everywhere *except* his two brief stays in Detroit. His minor league numbers were good, as are his numbers here. This lessens my fear of him turning into a pumpkin mid-season.
The Rays bullpen has the most innings thrown in all of baseball(382.1) and the 7th lowest ERA(3.39). The only team that is close to them ERA wise with a high number of innings is the Orioles(361/3.19). The Orioles are also doing it with what look like a bunch of retreads. Looking at their pen, I have no idea who any of these guys are.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2022.shtml
Baltimore Reliever 2021 ERA+/2022 ERA+
Jorge Lopez 74/236
Dillon Tate 102/157
Cionel Perez 74/447
Keegan Akin 67/173
Joey Krehbiel 110(in 8.1 innings, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2018)/177
Felix Bautista had a 3.44 ERA as a 24 year old in A ball in 2019, didn't play at all in 2020, and comes back in 2021 to have a 1.54 ERA in the minors in 2021. Currently has a 1.77 ERA in 35.2 innings.
Our bullpen ERA isn't "bad" at 3.64(13th in baseball) but we have thrown the 7th most relief innings in the game at 346.1. According to Fangraphs, our pen has been better than the Rays in fewer innings, 2.2 fWAR v 1.4 fWAR.
When compared to the AL East, we have a mediocre pen. The Yanks ERA is 2.69, the Orioles are at 3.06, and the Rays are at 3.39. Fortunately the Blue Jays pen has been pretty bad with a 4.24 ERA.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2022.shtml
Baltimore Reliever 2021 ERA+/2022 ERA+
Jorge Lopez 74/236
Dillon Tate 102/157
Cionel Perez 74/447
Keegan Akin 67/173
Joey Krehbiel 110(in 8.1 innings, hadn't pitched in the majors since 2018)/177
Felix Bautista had a 3.44 ERA as a 24 year old in A ball in 2019, didn't play at all in 2020, and comes back in 2021 to have a 1.54 ERA in the minors in 2021. Currently has a 1.77 ERA in 35.2 innings.
Our bullpen ERA isn't "bad" at 3.64(13th in baseball) but we have thrown the 7th most relief innings in the game at 346.1. According to Fangraphs, our pen has been better than the Rays in fewer innings, 2.2 fWAR v 1.4 fWAR.
When compared to the AL East, we have a mediocre pen. The Yanks ERA is 2.69, the Orioles are at 3.06, and the Rays are at 3.39. Fortunately the Blue Jays pen has been pretty bad with a 4.24 ERA.
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They don't need a "name" reliever - they need one or two GOOD relievers, whether or not we've heard of them.
But those guys aren’t answers either. They’re just as likely to turn into a pumpkin after changing teams as they are to do well. The best path to fix the pen is a) Whitlock b) replacing the real crap with mL guys- Winck, Ort, Crawford…. Or taking a flyer on another Hansel Robles type that will turn into something better than the Diekmans, Brasiers and Strahms… basically what Hansel Robles did last year. It wasn’t considered anything but a lateral move at the time.
If there’s just trade to be made it HAS to be for a 1B
They had one. They moved him to the rotation. He got hurt.
Another bullpen meltdown tonight and they’ve insisted on playing the vast majority of the year with their relief ace deliberately not in the pen where he could make the most impact.
I will never, ever understand it. And if they miss the playoffs, that decision will be the biggest reason why.
Imagine poor Kutter Crawford, cruising along with a 3 hit shutout through 6, and Cora decides to roll the dice against their most consistent hitter.
Wonder how the conversation between innings went…
“How you feeling Kutter? Got much left?”
“You can count on me Skip”
“Go get ‘em!” And under his breath “whatever you got’s better than what we got in the pen…”
I understand that our bullpen is no worse than TBs bullpen or any other budget constricted, roll the dice amalgam that is the modern bullpen creation effort.
Somehow, the Sox BP seems to be underdone vs our rivals. Luck? Poor bullpen or starter judgment? Timing? Injuries? I don’t know what it is, and I am not sure the data can give a clear answer, but it is a thing and we all know it.
Wonder how the conversation between innings went…
“How you feeling Kutter? Got much left?”
“You can count on me Skip”
“Go get ‘em!” And under his breath “whatever you got’s better than what we got in the pen…”
I understand that our bullpen is no worse than TBs bullpen or any other budget constricted, roll the dice amalgam that is the modern bullpen creation effort.
Somehow, the Sox BP seems to be underdone vs our rivals. Luck? Poor bullpen or starter judgment? Timing? Injuries? I don’t know what it is, and I am not sure the data can give a clear answer, but it is a thing and we all know it.
I didn’t see the game last night but it looks like Schreiber got beaten finally?
I can’t fault Whitlock usage or Cora management or whatever for that- used the right guy at the right time (from how I’m reading the box score) and he’s been great…. And he wasn’t. That happens.
I can’t fault Whitlock usage or Cora management or whatever for that- used the right guy at the right time (from how I’m reading the box score) and he’s been great…. And he wasn’t. That happens.
At most, you could maybe fault Cora a tiny bit for trying to "steal outs" with Crawford by sending him out for the seventh. But to that point, Crawford had been dominant. He'd retired 10 in a row and was at 83 pitches. No doubt people would have first-guessed if Cora had brought in Diekman or Davis or whomever fresh for the seventh (anticipating Schreiber in the 8th and Houck in the 9th). But like you say, it happens. Even the most reliable pitchers have a bad night. Schreiber came into a tough spot and didn't get the job done.
Well last night they brought in a guy who had had an 0.67 whip, 11.0 k/9, and a 1.16 era, and opponents had been hitting .143 against him. And he got lit up. I mean, you can't bring in a guy with better numbers than that (way better than Whitlock even) and he failed.
It totally sucks but it is what it is.
I guess there’s nothing to do but go out for ice cream and say “go get them next time boys!”
Schrieber has been great but the larger point is that without Whitlock the pen has by and large been both terrible and overworked. Maybe Schrieber doesn’t melt down if he hadnt been the only decent arm in the pen once Whitlock was out.
View: https://twitter.com/peteabe/status/1547774310797914115?s=21&t=egjZpxf0dlk1k8YQbmDoFg
This is the main point here. The pen is killing them, has been all season, and it’s because they’ve deliberately chosen to hamstring it.
This is the main point here. The pen is killing them, has been all season, and it’s because they’ve deliberately chosen to hamstring it.
well in the biggest spot in the game they brought in their very best relief pitcher who has been utterly dominant all year long. Absolutely the right move in the right spot and he got totally smoked. When you make what was 100% the right decision with 100% the right pitcher and he gets crushed, yes that is when you throw up your hands and say what else can you do. Sometimes you make the right decision and it does not work out for you.
Yes the larger point is that it would be better if they had a better bullpen.
It was painfully obvious going into the season that the bullpen was lacking in effective RH relievers. I guess they were counting on Barnes and Brasier to bounce back, and Robles to replace much of Ottavino did last year; and none of those things happened. Schreiber has obviously picked up a lot of the slack but he’s only one guy.
I don’t really understand the focus of adding all the lefties, several of whom were redundant to what they had (Diekman is basically an older Darwinzon), but what’s done is done. Moving one of the lefties for a righty of similar quality would help.
I think moving Houck to the pen was the right move but his lack of usage and inability to impact games during this streak has been frustrating. He’s pitched 8 2/3 innings in the past month. He’s only gone more than an inning once. He’s only pitched in one loss during that time. Sox are losing a ton of games and leaving one of their better RH relievers in the bench night after night.
I don’t really understand the focus of adding all the lefties, several of whom were redundant to what they had (Diekman is basically an older Darwinzon), but what’s done is done. Moving one of the lefties for a righty of similar quality would help.
I think moving Houck to the pen was the right move but his lack of usage and inability to impact games during this streak has been frustrating. He’s pitched 8 2/3 innings in the past month. He’s only gone more than an inning once. He’s only pitched in one loss during that time. Sox are losing a ton of games and leaving one of their better RH relievers in the bench night after night.
The down side of having a designated closer is that if you lock a guy into that role, and the team hits a rough patch where it's trailing a bunch, he doesn't get used.
Yeah, totally. I mean, ultimately, if you don’t have enough effective relievers you are going to have trouble winning games and a lot of decisions are going to look bad. Not sure it’s any more complicated than that.
He gave up a grounder directly to the shortstop position (X shifted next to 2b, whoops), a fake stadium chopper over 2b’s head, and a grounder directly to 3b (Devers shifted to ss, whoops).
He didn’t get strikeouts when needed and missed some spots but it was much closer to being a tough luck outing than a meltdown of any kind.
I think this really sums it up. Though I’m also beginning to wonder if SJH is right - if they hadn’t tinkered with Whitlock whether the results would have been any better.
And he slipped on the mound and hit a batter. The problem was bringing him in with the tying run on 2nd no outs and expecting him to get through unscathed. He would have needed to be perfect to get out of that jam and wasn't quite but anyone saying he got smoked it is obvious they only watched the box score and not the game. Cora waited one batter too long to get someone else in. Crawford had been great but extending him into the 7th in a game you really needed to have was a big risk that came back to bite them obviously. Letting Crawford face a batter until he gives up a hit/walk was certainly defensible but he shouldn't have been given any longer a leash. It just made the bullpens job way more difficult than it needed to be.
Well, there was RHP Barnes who has always had bumps in the road but has overall been consistent, and had developed into a ++ reliever.
RHP Garret Whitlock, who is like, OK, I guess - with the alternate being. . .
RHP Tanner Houck, who is like also, sorta OK.
RHP Robles, who gave us a 3.60 ERA in the second half.
RHP Brasier, who has been good to excellent for use for 4 years.
RHP Sawamura, who was excellent for us the year prior.
LHP Strahm, who has had a reverse split for his career.
But I mean, they probably should have traded all those guys, since it was so painfully fucking obvious that going into the season the bullpen was lacking in effective RH relievers.
Also, what have the Romans done for us.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qc7HmhrgTuQ
If they'd left Whitlock where he was in the bullpen, then Houck stays in the rotation. So if there would be a net gain of Whitlock in the pen versus the rotation, it's probably off-set by the difference of Houck in the rotation versus the pen. I have no idea how to calculate all that, but I suspect that it probably comes out about even and there's nothing truly gained by such a move.
It felt to me like the organization was surprised by the end of the lockout, hadn’t figured out what they really wanted to do with their roster, and were wishy-washy with what to do with both Whitlock and Houck. Seems like we have no real clear sense of what the future plan for either guy is, yet it seems hugely important in terms of figuring out where the team is headed.
Exactly. Houck and Whitlock seem like they could have different personalities, but they've been just about equally effective no matter the role:
'21-22
Houck: 2.71 FIP in 120.1 IP
Whitlock: 3.08 FIP in 122 IP
'21-22 (as RP)
Houck: 2.63 FIP in 45 IP
Whitlock: 2.84 FIP in 83 IP
This exactly.
Whitlock has nine starts, and Houck has four. So between the two of them they almost account for one rotation spot. The Sox just had no idea which one it was, and they ended up really unsettling the bullpen, and then Whitlock got injured and Houck had his whatever that was regarding vaccination.
I still think a Houck trade could be coming. No idea why he didn't see an inning in either Tampa series, and has only pitched 4 innings in July. With Whitlock returning to the pen and Schreiber pitching like an elite closer, I wouldn't be surprised to see Houck dealt. We could grab other reliever(s) in via separate deals at the deadline, or put this revitalized version of Kutter Crawford in that role.
Couldn't it also be that it's only mid-July and he's 18 IP away from his season high last year and they don't want to burn him out?
Agreed with everyone above that we need another RHRP.
It's very easy to explain why Houck didn't pitch in Tampa and has only thrown four innings in July. He was assigned to the "closer" role exclusively. When you don't have leads late, you don't see the closer that much. That goes for Houck or in-his-prime Mo Rivera. It's slavish commitment to a stat-driven role.
True, but even with closers, if the team goes more than 3 games without them warming up you usually see them in a mop up or random late inning just to "keep sharp"
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Here is how Cora used Kimbrell in late September 2018 to keep him sharp
3 of those games weren't save situations, but were 5 days after prior usage, or the last game of the season
They clinched the division in that 9/20 game (which is why he was in there), so the games after that were pretty meaningless (which was why he was in those last two, to stay sharp before the playoffs).
I do not like it. Another reason why I think he could be traded. Acquiring team gets a promising SP project or "proven closer."
Otherwise, we're just hemorrhaging value for one of our best trade assets. I'm interested in Houck the starter, but we don't need Houck the closer. Bloom just spun two "closers" out of thin air in Schreiber and Strahm, and have another two solid candidates for the role in Ort and German.
Oh, of course they can do that. But that still wouldn't lead to a lot of usage over a two week period where the team has gone 4-10 and there has only been one true save situation, which was an extra inning game in which Houck had already pitched. In fact, three of Houck's four innings this month have come with the game tied in order to preserve the tie for extra innings.
My point was more that if they weren't locked into only using him in 9th inning save situations, we might have seen him more often during this recent stretch.
True but there is a long history of getting the closer work during a series of blowouts or another group of non save situation games.
I'm sure there is a way that this makes sense in the way that WAR is being calculated, but my brain cannot wrap itself around the idea that the Sox bullpen simultaneously has a. pitched fewer innings than Tampa Bay's b. with a higher ERA and c. has somehow been "worth" more by WAR.
If they trade Houck, and make Schreiber the closer then who exactly is the set up guy? Saying the Sox don't need one of the 3 relievers that's pitching well is pretty ridiculous.
Could it be related to the fact that many of TB's "relief" innings are really low-leverage stuff in relief of a one-inning opener? (no idea if leverage is baked into WAR)
Why on earth would they trade Houck? He's really good. He's young. He's super cheap. He's versatile. I mean....the only knock against him is his vaccination status, but thank God the Sox have a longer view than to trade him because of that.
Ballpark adjustments are probably a decent part of it, fenway is way hitter friendly and the trop is way pitcher friendly
It only works if they are able to trade for a bunch of new, better guys while they're at it Of course, it makes little sense to trade a 26 year old with five years of control left who we know is an effective pitcher for what most likely will be an older, more expensive "proven" pitcher.
We’ll there’s Garrett Whitlock for one, and Strahm and Sawamura. But also there should be plenty of bullpen arms available in the next two weeks (Chris Martin, Lou Trivino, Daniel Bard, Buck Farmer, Kyle Finnigan, Taylor Clarke, Anthony Bass and so on).
My point is that this FO and player development team is really good at tweaking mechanics and building good relievers. That decreases the value of a bird-in-hand reliever like Houck relative to his value as a starter on another team.