Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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LVSL play tonight for about half amount of my Wizards fade last night. Not bc I like it half as much but bc I played a little more than I should have last night after I found a 1H line too. I do like this a lot as well.

* NY Knicks -6.5 (vs Lakers)

Lakers are 1-0 compliments of a 1-pt win over Phoenix due in large part from the Suns hitting only 7-32 threes. The Lakers fired their share of bricks themselves and could be a real real bad SL team without much top end talent.

The Knicks, otoh, are playing NBA rotation players much like the Celtics. They will have the two best player on the floor in Quickley and Toppin. Throw in Selden, Grimes, McBride and Sims......I feel we could see a similar blowout that the C’s had last night.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well the Knicks had the THREE best players on the court as McBride was phenomenal on both ends. Kid is a player! This Lakers summer squad sure did scrap hard though. Game could have went either way but in the 4Q it was just too much Quickley and McBride.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Well the Knicks had the THREE best players on the court as McBride was phenomenal on both ends. Kid is a player! This Lakers summer squad sure did scrap hard though. Game could have went either way but in the 4Q it was just too much Quickley and McBride.
This one was a heart-stopper at the buzzer. LA had about 4 or 5 decent to great looks at threes for the backdoor cover while the Knicks played token D to run the clock out. Clanged all of them.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This one was a heart-stopper at the buzzer. LA had about 4 or 5 decent to great looks at threes for the backdoor cover while the Knicks played token D to run the clock out. Clanged all of them.
Seriously? My ESPN+ feed froze as I was walking to my car so I listened to the NBARadio feed. They were talking about McBride and Quickley as if the Lakers were dribbling the clock out! Never even mentioned ANY shot on that final possession. Wow LOL!
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Seriously? My ESPN+ feed froze as I was walking to my car so I listened to the NBARadio feed. They were talking about McBride and Quickley as if the Lakers were dribbling the clock out! Never even mentioned ANY shot on that final possession. Wow LOL!
Yeah I don't know if there are play by plays available online but there were several instances where it looked like someone was driving in for an easy two, but instead pulled out for a three, rebounds bouncing around and out, several kickouts for pretty good looks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Looking at 3 games today but waiting for lineup finalization as this time of summer league you’ll begin to see players sitting out due to planned B2B, injury or simple shutdown. Jalen Green, Suggs, Romeo, and Tre Mann examples of each. Earliest one is 5pm EST Heat/Jazz.

Off the beaten path here in our never ending search for value. I follow some of the best MMA cappers around and tonight at Bellator264 there is a consensus that one line is way off which isn’t normally something I’d post about here. Magomedov is anywhere from -360 to -420 against Stots with the winner in line for a title shot. I’ve been reading where this number is so inflated (which you hear all the time in this sport) but only following the weigh-in did it peak my attention due to an added intangible.......

While Stots comfortably made weight it took Magomedov two tries to do so which again isn’t uncommon but can take its toll on a fighter. Not to play on “looks” but Magomedov looks like he’s about to head to the hospital rather than enter a ring. Worthy of a pizza bet and a sweat If you guys have Showtime.

51CDFF05-2539-48D8-B0AF-93DDDDC9CF74.jpeg
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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In addition to my +310 play on Stots in Bellator I’m buying some......

* Miami Heat -3.5 (vs Utah)

Afraid to wait any longer as this has already moved from 2.5 to 3.5 but I will hold off on the two late games for now. Both teams 2-0 but I feel the difference in level of competition they have faced in their two games is significant. While Utah squeaked by a couple mediocre or bad teams (one got beat by 20+ to a blah Sixers squad), the Heat have beaten a good Memphis team and blew out Denver. I place a lot of value on blowouts in a setting such as this with 40 min games that you dominate.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Heat bench shooting 1-13 in mid 3Q and 15-49 overall......yet somehow only down 5. Crazy.

Edit: Yeah.....nice pick.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Looking at 3 games today but waiting for lineup finalization as this time of summer league you’ll begin to see players sitting out due to planned B2B, injury or simple shutdown. Jalen Green, Suggs, Romeo, and Tre Mann examples of each. Earliest one is 5pm EST Heat/Jazz.

Off the beaten path here in our never ending search for value. I follow some of the best MMA cappers around and tonight at Bellator264 there is a consensus that one line is way off which isn’t normally something I’d post about here. Magomedov is anywhere from -360 to -420 against Stots with the winner in line for a title shot. I’ve been reading where this number is so inflated (which you hear all the time in this sport) but only following the weigh-in did it peak my attention due to an added intangible.......

While Stots comfortably made weight it took Magomedov two tries to do so which again isn’t uncommon but can take its toll on a fighter. Not to play on “looks” but Magomedov looks like he’s about to head to the hospital rather than enter a ring. Worthy of a pizza bet and a sweat If you guys have Showtime.

View attachment 43430
Hope someone jumped in on this. $tots wins a unanimous decision as a huge dog!
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’ve got a good one here. 5pm EST Celtics/Sixers.

*Under 174.5

The Sixers point total has been inflated in their two games based on two periods of Isaiah Joe and Tyrese Maxey shenanigans along with an OT period. Their offense is essentially all Maxey which I feel our veteran defenders can account for.

Celtics totals got a bump from Nesmith draining everything in a G2 up and down blowout with Hauser catching fire in G3 with the Celtics defense loosening up allowing the Magic to score 29 in an up and down 4Q where everyone got open looks. The key too the offense however has been Pritchard and I don’t feel his absence is being factored enough in this number.

My three *jose melendez* Keys to the Game.....

1. Pritchard’s absence
2. Non-blowout playground tempo
3. C’s veteran defenders slowing down Maxey
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Jumping into the 10pm EST game.

* Charlotte -4 (vs Bulls)

Hornets are 0-4 but playing hard and have been competitive in every game losing by 7, 10, 1 and 1. The Bulls are 1-3 with two being blowouts and they already have their win. I feel the Hornets will show pride in not wanting to go unbeaten while the Bulls have little motivation. Seems like a real good spot for Charlotte here.

Edit: Bouknight and two other starters out for Charlotte and my places already took game off. I’m so done with SL lol. Maybe it will be one of those letdown spots with the Bulls having played last night and they lay a big turd tonight.
 
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