Bursting Your Bubble: the 2020-21 NBA Gambling Thread

Red Averages

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If Phoenix wins this game they are going to need Cam Payne and Cam Johnson to play big roles.

On another note, Payne is going to get Paid this summer. He’s the best PG on the floor in a Finals game.
What are we thinking at the half?
 

Red Averages

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Don’t you have enough? Lol.

If you’re over leveraged it’s a great spot to hedge some but I’m standing pat with my preflop Under and rooting for Paul and the Suns.
That’s exactly where I’m at. Probably will look for an opportunity to take Mil but my heart is in it for a game 7… along with my head. At some point if you can get Mil +5 it really becomes irresponsible to not hedge some.

Also point taken on the commentary. Figure this is a glimpse into life as a hedge fund approach (have a view, trade around it, hammer it when appropriate, hedge if given the chance) to sports.
 

Red Averages

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Started taking some adjusted line Bucks -4.5, -5.5, -6.5 +165, +-85, +205.
Officially have adjusted likes in both directions.
Probably close to hammering Bucks
 

Red Averages

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Red Averages just broke the book!!
Yeah, that’s a +20 unit game, despite hedging (in reality BECAUSE of hedging. Having those in place allowed me to lean in aggressively on the bucks and then split a few adjusted lines in game).
Or what we call a max gross, high net positioning size. Good to get the playbook right (short the under, fade the bucks early, then hammer the bucks for the 2nd half) and lean in accordingly.

onto the next one
 

HomeRunBaker

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Forgot to post but I played the following on France this Sunday vs USA.

+14 game
+12 game
+ 7.5 1H
Under 95.5 USA Team Total
France/France (HT/FT) +686

So much going against Team USA in this one (and in Tokyo as a whole). Zero chemistry, questionable motivation, no fans, Booker/Middleton still playing in Finals, and going up agaiant a formidable France squad.

I haven’t played any Futures yet but I will with USA so ridiculously overvalued. I don’t think they run and don’t really even expect them to medal. A complete meltdown is not out of the question either imo.
Bump from earlier in week. @ElUno20
 

ElUno20

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My bad, jedi master. I missed it. Thanks for the bump. I agree. I dont get the love for the US team this early in the tourney.
 

rymflaherty

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Well, my only regret is not placing more on each bet, because after that performance I’m guessing things adjust quite a bit.
Had France +11.5
half under
Team USA half under
Durant u 28.5 p/r/a
Tatum u 18.5 p/r/a

Not a bad thing that i slept through the first half, as the Team USA under was my biggest bet and I would have been sweating that out.
Not a bad way to wake up and start the morning.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Game 2 @ 12:40am Wed morning (Tuesday late night) vs Iran

USA is -37.5, total 164

Initial thought that sticks out is Over. I’m going to do some digging first though.

Edit: They met in the 2010 World Championships and USA won 88-51. Durant was actually on that team along with guys like Love, Westbrook, Lowry, Eric Gordon and Tyson Chandler. They played all zone from what I can tell so if they look to take the air out of the ball maybe I’m off in thinking the Over is in play here. Honestly, I’ve probably got nothing on this one but will keep digging.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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These lines move fast. USA bet down to -30.5 already.....7 full points!! Total up to 165.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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They have now corrected it to 36.5 it looks like they misposted the USA women’s line to the men’s game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played a little Japan +16 over Spain to go with my breakfast. On the small side. Starts in 25 min.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Played a little Japan +16 over Spain to go with my breakfast. On the small side. Starts in 25 min.
Chicken dinner!! More like egg bites which is ironically what I had from Starbucks along with my chai latte for this game.

Japan is a good team with a couple NBA players. They beat France in a preliminary game. If they didn’t have that 6-minute 22-2 collapse at the end of the 1H they have a chance to win this game. Just an off line.
 

Marceline

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Chicken dinner!! More like egg bites which is ironically what I had from Starbucks along with my chai latte for this game.

Japan is a good team with a couple NBA players. They beat France in a preliminary game. If they didn’t have that 6-minute 22-2 collapse at the end of the 1H they have a chance to win this game. Just an off line.
Nice bet!

USA now up to 40.5 favorites vs Iran. This seems like the type of game that USA might actually cover since the team chemistry issues will matter a lot less against an opponent like Iran. Probably a stay away from me since it gets tough to predict what will happen if they open up a huge lead and coast through the 2nd half.
 

BigSoxFan

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I couldn't place my Luka over 25.5 bet fast enough. He scored 48. Rui hit a 3 with 1:15 to go to get his as well.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Nice bet!

USA now up to 40.5 favorites vs Iran. This seems like the type of game that USA might actually cover since the team chemistry issues will matter a lot less against an opponent like Iran. Probably a stay away from me since it gets tough to predict what will happen if they open up a huge lead and coast through the 2nd half.
Yeah I’m guessing it’s a pass as well although the number is up to 41.5 now. The next game really intrigues me against Czech Republic. They have balanced scoring, can rebound a little, and have a ball movement offense that could give USA trouble. The Iran game may give Team USA a false sense of security that this will be a cakewalk heading into the medal round rather than treating it as the elimination game that it could be. Line is going to be huge too especially with a 40-pt win over Iran.......but Czech is not Iran and I will be playing them if they are getting the 24-25 that I think they will.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Books are super slow to move on these numbers but they won’t last forever so hurry. The reliable sources combined with market movement was gold in NFL (went 9-0). Made two plays just now as my places are now posting these numbers.

* Giddey U11 (-145)

* Mitchell O10.5 (-132)


Edit: Giddey at -200, Mitchell at -142 now.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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* Added S. Cooper O21 (-150)

This is going to move quick with latest info on him slipping from interviews. Talk of him now slipping into 2nd round.
 

Marceline

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Books are super slow to move on these numbers but they won’t last forever so hurry. The reliable sources combined with market movement was gold in NFL (went 9-0). Made two plays just now as my places are now posting these numbers.

* Giddey U11 (-145)

* Mitchell O10.5 (-132)


Edit: Giddey at -200, Mitchell at -142 now.
I have Giddey U10 at +100. Thoughts on that as opposed to the U11?
 

HomeRunBaker

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I have Giddey U10 at +100. Thoughts on that as opposed to the U11?
Terrible as that looks like a Push with Memphis drafting him at 10. I still have 10.5 at -175 but I wouldn’t play 10 on the risk that Memphis trades up for Bouknight and the team sliding into 10 isn’t giddey over him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Australia -7.5 over Italy

Italy got past Germany who may be a real bad team that Italy’s disinterest in defending may have made them appear better than they are. Australia has a real good core who play FIBA very well with Mills, Ingles and Exum.
 

Marceline

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Terrible as that looks like a Push with Memphis drafting him at 10. I still have 10.5 at -175 but I wouldn’t play 10 on the risk that Memphis trades up for Bouknight and the team sliding into 10 isn’t giddey over him.
Thanks for the insight, I'm laying off that one. I got Cooper over 21.5 at -120. It's already moved to -140.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thanks for the insight, I'm laying off that one. I got Cooper over 21.5 at -120. It's already moved to -140.
Cooper over looks good. Solid intel on this one.

Interesting how the slot positions aren’t moving much but they are being juiced up instead. Probably due to the low limits books are taking on these. Ex: Scottie Barnes went from u5.5 -120 a couple weeks ago to U5.5 -400 now.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Usa will crush them. Not only did the players hear the doubters, so did Pop.
Bringing this over here and adding to it.

The more I cap this game the more I love the USA minus the 12. Gasol’s age is showing and Rubio has been the Spaniards ignition......of course he’s never driven the car with Holiday hanging on the windshield while swapping him with a newspaper through the drivers side window.

Could be a great Live or 2H spot too if USA comes out as they did in the Czech game. My strategy will be to play the USA 2H line preflop as well as the game pre. If we start slow I’ll look to add at the advantageous number and will look to add more at halftime.
 

reggiecleveland

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Bringing this over here and adding to it.

The more I cap this game the more I love the USA minus the 12. Gasol’s age is showing and Rubio has been the Spaniards ignition......of course he’s never driven the car with Holiday hanging on the windshield while swapping him with a newspaper through the drivers side window.

Could be a great Live or 2H spot too if USA comes out as they did in the Czech game. My strategy will be to play the USA 2H line preflop as well as the game pre. If we start slow I’ll look to add at the advantageous number and will look to add more at halftime.
LOL also anybody know a sight where I can bet my son will not have cut the grass by the time I get home?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bringing this over here and adding to it.

The more I cap this game the more I love the USA minus the 12. Gasol’s age is showing and Rubio has been the Spaniards ignition......of course he’s never driven the car with Holiday hanging on the windshield while swapping him with a newspaper through the drivers side window.

Could be a great Live or 2H spot too if USA comes out as they did in the Czech game. My strategy will be to play the USA 2H line preflop as well as the game pre. If we start slow I’ll look to add at the advantageous number and will look to add more at halftime.
Looked like a standard bad beat but we get the turnover and the Durant runout for the winning bucket to sweep the game!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Going back to the well tonight with another preflop 2H play on the USA. Ironically same 2H number of -6.5.......if you want to get cute I almost played Australian 1H +6 as well. I’ll be looking for good in-game numbers if USA gets down in the 1H and for a live 2H number.

Also, will be playing Slovenia -3.

Edit: Played some pizza money on Australian 1H ML at +325 as I’m banking on a slow USA 1H anyway.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Going back to the well tonight with another preflop 2H play on the USA. Ironically same 2H number of -6.5.......if you want to get cute I almost played Australian 1H +6 as well. I’ll be looking for good in-game numbers if USA gets down in the 1H and for a live 2H number.

Also, will be playing Slovenia -3.

Edit: Played some pizza money on Australian 1H ML at +325 as I’m banking on a slow USA 1H anyway.
Boooo Slovenia! Got a nice sweep on USA (didn’t post but played more USA at halftime) and don’t see any reason to fight the rhythm this team has. Pop has done an incredible job as these players have quickly fit into their roles and 2H defensive adjustments.

Played a little France 1H +7, some pizza on France 1H ML +327 and then some good USA preflop 2H -5.5 which I’ll continue looking to add to once we are trailing 1H and probably more at halftime.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm gonna sign up for a new account there today. If there are any referrals, let me know, happy to help you out for sharing the info!
Appreciate it. I’d have to send you an invite if you can PM me an email or text. Thanks.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Watching how much more loose these teams are playing in their second game leads me to a LVSL play later tonight at 10pm EST.

* Sacramento -2.5 (vs Wizards)

Kings beat Charlotte the other night after playing two games in the California league last week. The Wizards first summer game was cancelled due to Covid so tonight is their opener. I feel there is a huge advantage a team has in G4 vs another teams opener.....plus the Wizards have to deal with Davion Mitchell’s perimeter pressure which they won’t be accustomed to facing.

EDIT: Surprise! 1H numbers popped up on my PPH’s. Added some Kings 1H -1 (-120). Nothing quite like being over leveraged on SL games!
 
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BigSoxFan

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Watching how much more loose these teams are playing in their second game leads me to a LVSL play later tonight at 10pm EST.

* Sacramento -2.5 (vs Wizards)

Kings beat Charlotte the other night after playing two games in the California league last week. The Wizards first summer game was cancelled due to Covid so tonight is their opener. I feel there is a huge advantage a team has in G4 vs another teams opener.....plus the Wizards have to deal with Davion Mitchell’s perimeter pressure which they won’t be accustomed to facing.

EDIT: Surprise! 1H numbers popped up on my PPH’s. Added some Kings 1H -1 (-120). Nothing quite like being over leveraged on SL games!
I blindly followed this. Well done.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I blindly followed this. Well done.
1H was a little sweat with a couple big Wizard runs but they didn’t have enough then the 2H was a rout. The Wizards added 6 replacement players today too. You don’t find spots this good very often.