Butler and his next contract

Van Everyman

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Well, my question is whether this went from "We have to sign 2 of 3 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower)" to "We have to sign 2 of 4 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower/Butler)." I gather Butler is somewhat restricted, but given his continued solid play, I wonder whether from a pure dollars standpoint whether that is factoring into this decision in a way that it didn't seem to 9 months ago.
 

Stitch01

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Well, my question is whether this went from "We have to sign 2 of 3 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower)" to "We have to sign 2 of 4 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower/Butler)." I gather Butler is somewhat restricted, but given his continued solid play, I wonder whether from a pure dollars standpoint whether that is factoring into this decision in a way that it didn't seem to 9 months ago.
HOT TAKE ALERT: I think Hightower is the only guy that they end up signing long-term
 

dbn

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Agree that's totally possible. Maybe they leverage Butler's restriction into a Cannon-esque extension?
I would love to see that. Pay him more that you would have in 2017 in order to keep him through (edit: most of) his 20s at under-market prices, then let another team overpay him during his 30s.
 

Shelterdog

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Agree that's totally possible. Maybe they leverage Butler's restriction into a Cannon-esque extension?
He's too good. I think the more likely path is first round tender in 2017 (like 4 million bucks), than one year of franchise tag in 2018 (a shitload but he's at a poistion he's worth it) and then, hey, look, our corner is 29 years old so let someone else play for his decline phase.

Also they totally let him go if someone signs him to an offer sheet for the first round pick or if someone makes a legit trade offer (a second round pick or better) in 2018.
 

Super Nomario

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Well, my question is whether this went from "We have to sign 2 of 3 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower)" to "We have to sign 2 of 4 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower/Butler)." I gather Butler is somewhat restricted, but given his continued solid play, I wonder whether from a pure dollars standpoint whether that is factoring into this decision in a way that it didn't seem to 9 months ago.
I'd be surprised. Butler is a good corner but they've never shelled out big deals for that position. The defensive scheme is a little different than it was when Ty Law and Asante Samuel were let go, but I think he's likely to get his big pay-day elsewhere.
 

Van Everyman

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Right, which is why I wonder whether they leverage that restriction along the lines of what dbn suggests upthread. I also wonder in the wake of 2009 whether BB places higher value of coach-ability today than he might've a decade ago.
 

Saints Rest

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Well, my question is whether this went from "We have to sign 2 of 3 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower)" to "We have to sign 2 of 4 guys (Collins/Jones/Hightower/Butler)." I gather Butler is somewhat restricted, but given his continued solid play, I wonder whether from a pure dollars standpoint whether that is factoring into this decision in a way that it didn't seem to 9 months ago.
Don't forget Bennett. I think his value has skyrocketed from "possible upgrade on Scott Chandler" to "upgrade on Aaron Hernandez" (in the good way).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Don't forget Bennett. I think his value has skyrocketed from "possible upgrade on Scott Chandler" to "upgrade on Aaron Hernandez" (in the good way).
I don't think Bennet will be anywhere in the neighborhood of contract size as the defensive guys. The Pats will have plenty of cap room next year, it's just a matter of how many big money deals they can carry to tie up big chunks.
 
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NortheasternPJ

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NortheasternPJ

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I'd be surprised. Butler is a good corner but they've never shelled out big deals for that position. The defensive scheme is a little different than it was when Ty Law and Asante Samuel were let go, but I think he's likely to get his big pay-day elsewhere.
People often forget that Butler's already 26. I wouldn't object to the Patriots restricting him next year, give him the franchise tag for a year and then part ways when he's going to be 29 if he doesn't want an extension at a team friendly rate.
 

Rook05

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Question for the group: do you think the Pats would have kept Jones if they foresaw a Collins decline coming, or do you think their evaluation of Jones was completely independent? (e.g., didn't always show up, inconsistent, didn't set edge awesome, the weird synthetic mary jane incident...)
Good question. I think Jones was a goner no matter what. I don't think BB values pure pass rushers as much as strong LB and safety play. Their whole scheme is predicated on not giving up the big play. Consequently, they rarely ask linemen to get up the field after the QB. I think Lombardi mentioned it a few weeks back--BB doesn't want anyone overrunning (i.e. behind) the ball whether it's the QB or RB.

That's not to say they won't bring extra guys for pressure, but that pressure is generally right up the gut. When was the last time they brought a corner blitz? I think they actually set Butler once or twice this year, but that's a far cry from Kyle "sack master" Arrington circa 2011-13.
 

Stitch01

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I think they're going to 1st round tender Butler and not match an offer sheet (or go the Welker trade route) if one is made, but Im probably in the minority.
 

InstaFace

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The Butler extension conversation is probably worth another thread, but: Butler's also a rare candidate for showing loyalty to the Patriots organization that is measured in dollars - much like Brady, or Edelman, or arguably McCourty. He was plucked from obscurity because the Pats saw in him things others didn't, he was given a legitimate shot, played in the super bowl his rookie year and was put in a position to make a legendary, nearly-household-name-status play by a coaching staff that prepared him to an almost spooky level of precision.

The degree to which he has thrived in Foxboro over and above what he might have done in Random Franchise X is probably a bigger differential than for most other players. I can absolutely see him accepting a deal that pays him well, maybe a little below market but with more guaranteed money.
 

Harry Hooper

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Good question. I think Jones was a goner no matter what. I don't think BB values pure pass rushers as much as strong LB and safety play. Their whole scheme is predicated on not giving up the big play. Consequently, they rarely ask linemen to get up the field after the QB. I think Lombardi mentioned it a few weeks back--BB doesn't want anyone overrunning (i.e. behind) the ball whether it's the QB or RB.

That's not to say they won't bring extra guys for pressure, but that pressure is generally right up the gut. When was the last time they brought a corner blitz? I think they actually set Butler once or twice this year, but that's a far cry from Kyle "sack master" Arrington circa 2011-13.
I think I saw Butler blitz late in the Bills game, but he was no factor in that play.
 

Super Nomario

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Other than Revis.
That wasn't really big money though. $12 MM for one season, essentially. That's a heavy price tag but short commitment, and less than Revis got paid before or after. It's less than the CB franchise tag. And he didn't cost them a comp pick, and they got a 3rd as a comp pick when he left.
 

dbn

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@InstaFace scenario would be my favorite outcome, but my 2nd would be that he parts ways on good terms, gets an outrageously-huge contract from another team, buys his mom a house and his siblings trucks, invests well, plays out his contract well, and retires with in god health.

In other words, I'd love for him to be a lifelong Patriot in a mutually-beneficial scenario, but otherwise I want his life to be as awesome as can be, because XLIX.

edit: meant "good health", but I'll leave it.
 

jimv

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I think their approach to Butler's status would depend on the difficulty in filling his role. If they think a younger corner is ready to step into that position or they see alternatives available via trade/free agency they're much less willing to extend themselves

I don't see anyone ready to fill his shoes but who knows what (or who) develops in the next year or two
 

Ed Hillel

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The Pats are going to have around 70 million dollars to spend this offseason. Seventy million. Let's say they go all out and spend 15 million next year on Hightower - they've still got 55 million left. Now there are obviously going to be a number of holes left with the team (Tackle, DE spots, 2nd corner), but how else is the team going to better put to use those resources than signing a young, improving top 5-10 corner in the league who you know plays well in the system? The years from Samuel to Talib were dark, my friends.

Using the tender as leverage, offer him something like 5/50/23 that locks the team in for 3 years and see where thet gets you. While I understand both sides, my preference would be to lock him up at a fair rate than see a contender overpay him and the Pats with a late first.
 

lexrageorge

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I believe that Belichick knows what he has with Butler, and is going to be willing to offer him something close to 90-95% of what he would make on the open market. The situations with Asante Samuel and Aqib Talib were different.

I can see why the Pats let Talib walk. As for Samuel, I believe that was one of the few true swings and misses that Belichick the GM made. Then again, the team had a roster full of players that needed to get paid, and paying Samuel what he wanted may have meant saying goodbye to players such as Wilfork or Welker. It's also possible they may have expected a bit more out of Ellis Hobbs than what they actually got.