Cade to Black: 2021 NBA Draft Thread

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If the C's don't make it out of the play-in tournament, which appears increasingly likely, what pick would they probably end up with? (Assuming they don't win the lottery.)

Thanks in advance.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If the C's don't make it out of the play-in tournament, which appears increasingly likely, what pick would they probably end up with? (Assuming they don't win the lottery.)

Thanks in advance.
Depends on their record but 12-14th.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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If the C's don't make it out of the play-in tournament, which appears increasingly likely, what pick would they probably end up with? (Assuming they don't win the lottery.)

Thanks in advance.
They'll survive the play in. Nothing has gone right yet, so why start now?
 

lexrageorge

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The Celtics have to lose to two of the Hornets, Wizards, and Pacers to have a shot at the lottery. While I'd prefer that outcome as a fan, I know the players and the coach will be doing everything they can to avoid it. So my default expectation remains a broom job in the first round.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The Celtics have to lose to two of the Hornets, Wizards, and Pacers to have a shot at the lottery. While I'd prefer that outcome as a fan, I know the players and the coach will be doing everything they can to avoid it. So my default expectation remains a broom job in the first round.
They have a decent shot of losing tonight in Cleveland too.
 

Cellar-Door

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We're all rooting for a huge crash and burn as deep into the lotto as possible now, right?

It's pretty hilarious that the Celtics own pick might be better than the Mem or SAC ones.
It's basically impossible to get much better than the 14th pick. You can't tank with 5 games left.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It's basically impossible to get much better than the 14th pick. You can't tank with 5 games left.
14th would imply we had the best record out of the non playoff teams. That may not be the case. Memphis and GSW could miss the playoffs and both have better records than us.
 

lovegtm

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14th would imply we had the best record out of the non playoff teams. That may not be the case. Memphis and GSW could miss the playoffs and both have better records than us.
And I'm old enough to remember Tyler Herro going at 13 and not 14.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And I'm old enough to remember Tyler Herro going at 13 and not 14.
And Haliburton at 12... although that's not looking as awful as it was a few months ago. Really, last year's draft is looking pretty sweet with AN+PP. Who knows who they would have picked at 30 though.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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HRB occasionally lets slip that he has sources close to the Celtics IIRC and that he sometimes hears things. If this is his eye-test conclusions, then so be it but mine was a legitimate question.

As for the spreadsheet box score comment, I have no idea how to prove this but it feels like I am on the extreme end of NBA game watching in this forum. What that means is that I spend a lot of time watching the sport but I don't think that qualifies me for making a real, good faith attempt at measuring things like motivation, leadership and a sense of urgency. My life experience is such that even with all of those factors present, you can still fail at something but I understand everyone is different.

Back on topic, the C's don't need any more young pieces so even if they had a viable path to a higher pick available to them its not clear how beneficial it will be. It feels like adding at least league average NBA talent to this roster for next season given where they are in their development cycle is the way to go. Of course, if they had a shot at a legit lottery player, that changes things but that ship has sailed.
 

Cesar Crespo

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HRB occasionally lets slip that he has sources close to the Celtics IIRC and that he sometimes hears things. If this is his eye-test conclusions, then so be it but mine was a legitimate question.

As for the spreadsheet box score comment, I have no idea how to prove this but it feels like I am on the extreme end of NBA game watching in this forum. What that means is that I spend a lot of time watching the sport but I don't think that qualifies me for making a real, good faith attempt at measuring things like motivation, leadership and a sense of urgency. My life experience is such that even with all of those factors present, you can still fail at something but I understand everyone is different.

Back on topic, the C's don't need any more young pieces so even if they had a viable path to a higher pick available to them its not clear how beneficial it will be. It feels like adding at least league average NBA talent to this roster for next season given where they are in their development cycle is the way to go. Of course, if they had a shot at a legit lottery player, that changes things but that ship has sailed.
The box score comment has nothing to do with watching the games, although I get that's an old insult thrown around in baseball.

As fans, we aren't really privy to anything beyond what is on the box score. Even if you watch the games over and over, there are things you don't see due to camera angles or there are things you possibly aren't aware of (maybe a team strategy to leave Player X open or to sag off).

If we only talk about things we are actually qualified to talk about, there are maybe 2 posters on this forum. We can make educated guesses or talk about what happens IF such and such is the case.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB occasionally lets slip that he has sources close to the Celtics IIRC and that he sometimes hears things. If this is his eye-test conclusions, then so be it but mine was a legitimate question.

As for the spreadsheet box score comment, I have no idea how to prove this but it feels like I am on the extreme end of NBA game watching in this forum. What that means is that I spend a lot of time watching the sport but I don't think that qualifies me for making a real, good faith attempt at measuring things like motivation, leadership and a sense of urgency. My life experience is such that even with all of those factors present, you can still fail at something but I understand everyone is different.

Back on topic, the C's don't need any more young pieces so even if they had a viable path to a higher pick available to them its not clear how beneficial it will be. It feels like adding at least league average NBA talent to this roster for next season given where they are in their development cycle is the way to go. Of course, if they had a shot at a legit lottery player, that changes things but that ship has sailed.
I think it is a severe case of overthinking if you need sources to recognize that we lack in those areas I mentioned. Scal has been calling out the team on the broadcasts to a degree without getting himself in trouble. Even Ainge had to bite his tongue for much of the broadcast the night he was on. I mean what I’m saying isn’t exactly a hot take.

We don’t have to look further than the past week to see:

* Tatum lackadaisically leaving the ball in the backcourt for an opponent to pick it up and lay it in as he sulks. Players regularly appearing confused at their teammates defensive actions against standard offensive sets.

* Come out jogging up and down the floor in giving up 47 1Q points in one of the few real important games of the regular season from the players perspective. Zero sense of urgency

* Having a second chance two night later against the same team and continually miss second half assignments while not recognizing when Dragic is looking to slice your throat until he’s already completed the task. They simply were not competing. If anyone stuck around to watch the Knicks and Lakers compete hard for 48+5 minutes it looked like two different leagues.

Re: Sources. The two primary ones were Simmons (who had the real inside contact) in the mid-2000’s when we had our private board that some here were part of. That dried up when one of our members decided it was a good time to challenge someone as thin-skinned as Bill. Oh well. We did know about the Ricky Davis trade being a done deal two days before it was even a rumor anywhere. There were a couple others too. My guy is still the Travel guy for the team who came over with Pitino (they were golfing buddies). We go way back but even though his number is still in my contacts we haven’t spoken since the Pierce days. Those were some funny stories.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think it is a severe case of overthinking if you need sources to recognize that we lack in those areas I mentioned. Scal has been calling out the team on the broadcasts to a degree without getting himself in trouble. Even Ainge had to bite his tongue for much of the broadcast the night he was on. I mean what I’m saying isn’t exactly a hot take.

We don’t have to look further than the past week to see:

* Tatum lackadaisically leaving the ball in the backcourt for an opponent to pick it up and lay it in as he sulks. Players regularly appearing confused at their teammates defensive actions against standard offensive sets.

* Come out jogging up and down the floor in giving up 47 1Q points in one of the few real important games of the regular season from the players perspective. Zero sense of urgency


* Having a second chance two night later against the same team and continually miss second half assignments while not recognizing when Dragic is looking to slice your throat until he’s already completed the task. They simply were not competing. If anyone stuck around to watch the Knicks and Lakers compete hard for 48+5 minutes it looked like two different leagues.

Re: Sources. The two primary ones were Simmons (who had the real inside contact) in the mid-2000’s when we had our private board that some here were part of. That dried up when one of our members decided it was a good time to challenge someone as thin-skinned as Bill. Oh well. We did know about the Ricky Davis trade being a done deal two days before it was even a rumor anywhere. There were a couple others too. My guy is still the Travel guy for the team who came over with Pitino (they were golfing buddies). We go way back but even though his number is still in my contacts we haven’t spoken since the Pierce days. Those were some funny stories.
I don't disagree that you saw those things. Where we might disagree is on the cause. Given that we have seen Jayson Tatum progress over the past few seasons, I tend to believe him when he attributes some of his struggles to COVID even if some of his issues are partially from him continuing to learn and mature. Furthermore, when you add in the comments by Thompson, Fournier and others about the impact of COVID, its plausible that what we are seeing isn't as really a function of poor effort and motivation but instead a lack of oxygen.

That said, if we see similar results from Tatum et al next year, it may be time to reassess things.
 

nighthob

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It's basically impossible to get much better than the 14th pick. You can't tank with 5 games left.
There's a pretty good chance that they can finish behind a couple of the .500 teams out west. They do have a good chance of 0fering the rest of the games.
 

Cellar-Door

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There's a pretty good chance that they can finish behind a couple of the .500 teams out west. They do have a good chance of 0fering the rest of the games.
I did the math wrong, they're probably 13 if they are in the lottery, because the 9 in the West is likely to be better.
There are 11 teams who already have too many losses to be worse than BOS....

Hypothetically IND and CHA could pass them as could SA.... that would leave them with the 12th pick if they lost as the 9 seed.
Takes a lot though... Celtics need NYK to collapse and PHX to drop 2 games to SA.
More likely if they lose as the 9 they get 13.
Even more likely is they end up the 8, and then have to lose twice to get the 13.

Of course it's all basically moot since they're going to make the play-in games no matter what, and the outcome of those games will determine if they make the lottery or not, and I think it's unlikely they lose 5 straight, the opposition just isn't that good.

Hypothetically they could get the 12, but probably they'll end up 13 or not in the lottery.
 

nighthob

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As a Rockets fan I like the idea of Springer landing there, but if he's available at #16 I just can't see Boston passing on him. I also agree with you about Giddey, no way he gets past the Spurs.
 

EL Jeffe

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Givony mocked Cameron Thomas at #16, which does nothing for me. He can shoot, but he's a below the rim wing, who's just an okay athlete and doesn't defend or create for others. If they keep the pick, I'd rather roll the dice on a Kai Jones type and hope the skill catches up to the athleticism and length. I liked Nick Claxton a lot coming out and Jones is sort of in that mold. I also like Sharife Cooper; I don't know that Boston needs a ball-dominant PG, particularly one who doesn't shoot it particularly well at the moment. But he's an 83% FT shooter, so maybe the jumper comes around and you have something valuable (even if his lack of size is going to always be a defensive issue). Really fast and creative, and probably makes a nice compliment to Pritchard.
 

nighthob

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I'm with you on Cam Thomas. I also doubt he's 6'4". I'd be shocked if he's 6'3" in shoes. There are teams he makes sense for, Boston isn't one of them as they have about eight undersized SGs on the roster (or draft rights to) as it is. Now Jared Butler I could see as a combo guard that can defend the 1 spot.

I love watching Sharife Cooper play and I'm going to tune in to his games when he's in the NBA. Hopefully not in Boston, though. Again, Boston has lots of smurfs and the NBA is transforming into a league for guys 6'4" and up. Sharife is only 6'1" if his hair counts. And he still might need shoes to get him over the top.
 

chilidawg

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Givony mocked Cameron Thomas at #16, which does nothing for me. He can shoot, but he's a below the rim wing, who's just an okay athlete and doesn't defend or create for others. If they keep the pick, I'd rather roll the dice on a Kai Jones type and hope the skill catches up to the athleticism and length. I liked Nick Claxton a lot coming out and Jones is sort of in that mold. I also like Sharife Cooper; I don't know that Boston needs a ball-dominant PG, particularly one who doesn't shoot it particularly well at the moment. But he's an 83% FT shooter, so maybe the jumper comes around and you have something valuable (even if his lack of size is going to always be a defensive issue). Really fast and creative, and probably makes a nice compliment to Pritchard.
Length and athleticism, Kai would tic those boxes for sure. Thomas is my nightmare pick.

And no more smurfs.
 

lovegtm

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Length and athleticism, Kai would tic those boxes for sure. Thomas is my nightmare pick.

And no more smurfs.
Where does the smurfs thing come from? The Celtics have used their top pick the past 5 years on: Jaylen, Jayson, TL, Romeo, and Nesmith. They've taken some shots lower in the draft on guys with worse measurables, but they consistently have tried to use top picks on big, long, fast guys.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Where does the smurfs thing come from? The Celtics have used their top pick the past 5 years on: Jaylen, Jayson, TL, Romeo, and Nesmith. They've taken some shots lower in the draft on guys with worse measurables, but they consistently have tried to use top picks on big, long, fast guys.
The team has a lot of smurfs.

They've also drafted 2 or 3 in the last 2 years depending on your take of PP. Then there is Grant Williams.

They don't use top picks on them though, outside of KO.
 

lovegtm

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The team has a lot of smurfs.

They've also drafted 2 or 3 in the last 2 years depending on your take of PP. Then there is Grant Williams.

They don't use top picks on them though, outside of KO.
Yeah, I think we both agree that the back of the rotation is fungible enough not to get too hung up on it, and the bigger issue with Ainge was his inability to fill those slots with vets.

I think it's reasonable to take shots at guys with worse measurables in the back of the 1st/2nd round. You have to trade off something to try to hit gems later in the draft.
 

Devizier

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Yeah, I think we both agree that the back of the rotation is fungible enough not to get too hung up on it, and the bigger issue with Ainge was his inability to fill those slots with vets.
I don't know if this applies to Ainge specifically, but when people get hung up on "good" or "bad" deals in the sub-max contract range you lose out on a lot of opportunities to get solid vets. Of course the Fournier trade (and presumably extension) shows that this isn't always the case as far as the Celtics are concerned.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, I think we both agree that the back of the rotation is fungible enough not to get too hung up on it, and the bigger issue with Ainge was his inability to fill those slots with vets.

I think it's reasonable to take shots at guys with worse measurables in the back of the 1st/2nd round. You have to trade off something to try to hit gems later in the draft.
It's reasonable to take shots but Ainge wasted too many roster spots with shots and not vets.

If Ainge wanted to fill the bench with "shots", he needed those shots to have more diversity and some of them to have length.

Otherwise, he needed to trade away/be willing to cut some of the shots for vets who can fill a role.

There is no reason for any team to have Grant Williams and Semi Ojeleye. There is no reason for that same team to also carry Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters. Take your shots, but diversify.
 

chilidawg

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Where does the smurfs thing come from? The Celtics have used their top pick the past 5 years on: Jaylen, Jayson, TL, Romeo, and Nesmith. They've taken some shots lower in the draft on guys with worse measurables, but they consistently have tried to use top picks on big, long, fast guys.
It comes from looking at the roster and seeing Waters, Edwards, Kemba and PP all on it. Plus undersized 4's like Semi and GW. Feels like every night we're smaller than the opposition. It's also tongue some what in cheek.
 

EL Jeffe

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For what was billed as a bounce-back talent pool after last year's meh crop, it's hard to imagine anyone exciting being there at #16 looking at the various big boards. I'm sure Hollinger's Athletic article was discussed in one of the various threads here (Kemba, Thompson, #16 for Horford). At this point, I'd attach that pick to Kemba to get out of the contract. IDK if OKC would be interested enough in acquiring another pick to make that deal, but I think it makes sense from Boston's perspective.
 

lovegtm

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For what was billed as a bounce-back talent pool after last year's meh crop, it's hard to imagine anyone exciting being there at #16 looking at the various big boards. I'm sure Hollinger's Athletic article was discussed in one of the various threads here (Kemba, Thompson, #16 for Horford). At this point, I'd attach that pick to Kemba to get out of the contract. IDK if OKC would be interested enough in acquiring another pick to make that deal, but I think it makes sense from Boston's perspective.
Pretty obvious why Hollinger is no longer an NBA exec lol
 

128

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Pretty obvious why Hollinger is no longer an NBA exec lol
I don't mind Hollinger. His columns for The Athletic are lively, even if his takes often miss the mark. It's interesting to hear from a former NBA executive.
 

Auger34

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I don't mind Hollinger. His columns for The Athletic are lively, even if his takes often miss the mark. It's interesting to hear from a former NBA executive.
I guess this is where I am with him too.
I honestly had very high expectations when I found out he signed with The Athletic. I thought it was going to be more of an insiders look at what front offices do and he’d provide a bit more nuggets from that lens.
When I look at it like that, he’s honestly been pretty awful. His columns haven’t changed at all since his pre-Grizz days and he still writes as if he’s a genius in an industry full of dopes (which looking at his track record is pretty hilarious)
But he does have a lot of info in the columns and it does appear he actually watches the games instead of just looking at the numbers his projection system spits out (cough Kevin Pelton cough)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Speaking of Pelton, what is Roland Beech doing these days? He was with an NBA team a few years ago but hadn’t heard much since. I enjoyed doing some shot charting for him and 82games way back in the day.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Count me in for speed/athleticism. With Jaylen and TL out it was glaring just how slooooowwwww the rest of the roster is.

For a team that hates moving the ball it stood out even more. Need more quick twitch on the roster, regardless of position.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Assuming we don’t move up for Barnes or Giddey the guys at the top of my wish list are:

1. Jaden Springer, Tennessee - Assuming we move Smart this summer rather than lose/overpay next summer, we replace the physicality and defensive aggression at his position.

Gap to.....

2. Tre Mann, Florida - Made for NBA game. Smooth combo guard with size and shooting range for today’s game.

3. Day’ron Sharpe, UNC - The physical/contract uncertainty of TL moving forward along, TT likely in final year, and trade of Theis leaves gaping hole at 5 long term. The kid is raw but has the physicals and the willingness/energy to defend.
 

nighthob

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If Barnes slips out of the top ten I expect Boston to make a major offer to land him. He's the perfect athletic, playmaking wing to line up alongside the JayCrew. Jalen Johnson isn't the athlete or playmaker that Barnes is, but has a much better jumper and overall offensive game. But he has the Cam Reddish flags on him at the moment. I would expect Boston to make a major offer to trade up for JJ if he tumbles as he'd basically be Hayward v2.0.
 

benhogan

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If Barnes slips #11/12 team will scoop him up much like Haliburton was the steal of last season's draft.

Springer/Butler is my realistic hopes

The steal of the 2nd round mocks is Quentin Grimes. ++ defender on the perimeter, can shoot the 3 and create his own shot. Wouldn't be shocked to see him go at the end of Round 1
 

Auger34

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Assuming we don’t move up for Barnes or Giddey the guys at the top of my wish list are:

1. Jaden Springer, Tennessee - Assuming we move Smart this summer rather than lose/overpay next summer, we replace the physicality and defensive aggression at his position.

Gap to.....

2. Tre Mann, Florida - Made for NBA game. Smooth combo guard with size and shooting range for today’s game.

3. Day’ron Sharpe, UNC - The physical/contract uncertainty of TL moving forward along, TT likely in final year, and trade of Theis leaves gaping hole at 5 long term. The kid is raw but has the physicals and the willingness/energy to defend.
How high is Giddey supposed to go? A recent mock had him falling to the Celtics (maybe Sam Vecenie?)
 

Auger34

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If Barnes slips out of the top ten I expect Boston to make a major offer to land him. He's the perfect athletic, playmaking wing to line up alongside the JayCrew. Jalen Johnson isn't the athlete or playmaker that Barnes is, but has a much better jumper and overall offensive game. But he has the Cam Reddish flags on him at the moment. I would expect Boston to make a major offer to trade up for JJ if he tumbles as he'd basically be Hayward v2.0.
Who are you saying is Hayward 2.0? Not sure if JJ is Jalen Johnson or someone else
 

nighthob

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Who are you saying is Hayward 2.0? Not sure if JJ is Jalen Johnson or someone else
Jalen Johnson. He’s a bigger wing with an all round offensive game including some playmaking ability. Much like Hayward. Barnes is on another level as a playmaker. But his jumper is broken and Aaron Gordon v1.1 is a real possibility with him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How high is Giddey supposed to go? A recent mock had him falling to the Celtics (maybe Sam Vecenie?)
I have seen Giddey in the Top-12 of every mock I’ve seen except KOC’s. Springer and Mann were in the low teens on just about all except each cracked the Top-10 on an outlier and I believe one had Springer at 8 (which is close to where I have him).
 

nighthob

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If Barnes slips #11/12 team will scoop him up much like Haliburton was the steal of last season's draft.
Not necessarily. Charlotte desperately needs guards bigger than 6'1" and have a lot of Fs. So I think that there might be opportunities there for Boston. Especially given that the Hornets already have a better PG and with Barnes there's a real danger that he's just Aaron Gordon v1.1.
 

chilidawg

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Not necessarily. Charlotte desperately needs guards bigger than 6'1" and have a lot of Fs. So I think that there might be opportunities there for Boston. Especially given that the Hornets already have a better PG and with Barnes there's a real danger that he's just Aaron Gordon v1.1.
Wouldn't Aaron Gordon 1.1 be a pretty good outcome with a 11/12 pick?