Can we talk about Jacob deGrom?

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I didn't see a thread dedicated to this guy but there should be one.

First, let's look at his career numbers: 2.49 era, 157 era+, 2.64 fip, 1.02 whip, 10.7 k/9. Obviously outstanding.

Now, let's look at his last four seasons: 1.90 era, 207 era+, 2.13 fip, 0.89 whip, 11.9 k/9. Mind boggling.

Now, let's look at this year in particular: 0.69 era, 554 (!) era+, 0.99 fip, 0.53 whip, 14.1 k/9. Video game numbers.

And now here's his game log from this year:

42343

He's had only one game where he gave up more than 2 runs. In 8 of his 13 appearances he's given up ZERO earned runs. He's given up SIX (!) earned runs all season long. He hasn't given up more than five hits in a single outing this year. 122 strikeouts versus just 11 (!) walks. In 12 of his 13 outings, he's given up 3 or fewer hits.

The guy is absolutely bonkers. Though it will be interesting to see him moving forward. He had his worst start of the season on June 26, following MLB's restrictions on sticky stuff. I mean, it was still a really good start - 6.0 ip, 3 h, 2 r, 1 bb, 5 k - but not at all up to his usual standards (as crazy as that sounds). So I wonder how he'll be affected by these new policies.

But still....the guy is putting up historically good numbers and has been otherworldly for a long time now.
 

BaseballJones

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Excellent point, Cesar. His last 8 starts he's not thrown more than 88 pitches. Makes me wonder why they're pulling him so soon. During a three-game stretch in May, he threw 68 pitches over 5.0 innings, 63 pitches over 5.0 innings, and 70 pitches over 6.0 innings. Was that when he was dealing with some arm issues? Maybe they're just babying him (for precautionary reasons)?
 

begranter

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He had lat inflammation and discomfort that caused him to miss 3 starts and hit the IL in May. As an injury that's notoriously difficult to gauge level of recovery and health until you get into a game, they were easing him back in.

More recently he's been dealing with shoulder discomfort that apparently originated on a swing, which could be part of why his latest start wasn't quite as dominant. DH for all!
 

AlNipper49

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This is the first time in the past 20 years that my Pedro centric view of the world is questioned. He may be better than Pedro.
 

cornwalls@6

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This is the first time in the past 20 years that my Pedro centric view of the world is questioned. He may be better than Pedro.
It’s too bad you can’t be thrown out of here for that heresy;)........... I’ve always felt ‘98-‘02 Pedro was the best pitching I ever had, and likely would, ever see. But man, those numbers, over a similar stretch, are just cartoonishly great. I don’t see DeGrom pitch every start, but the times I have his stuff seems damn near every bit as electric as Pedros. At minimum, he’s already in the Pedro/Koufax discussion for sheer dominance. As mentioned above, his age surprised me. Will be interesting to see how much longer he can sustain this level.
 

BaseballJones

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This is the first time in the past 20 years that my Pedro centric view of the world is questioned. He may be better than Pedro.
I am with you. There’s no bigger Pedro fan than me. But even I can see what deGrom is doing. It’s unfathomable. At minimum, deGrom has been performing in the same universe as Pedro.
 

TheGazelle

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Yep. He gave up three hits and three runs in the first. Then proceeded to give up 2 hits and 0 runs while striking out 12 over six innings.

So yeah, his new worst outing of the season: 7 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 3 er, 14 k.
I caught the second half of this start, and the Braves were basically helpless. I turned it on when ATL had first and third with no outs. DeGrom proceeded to strike out the side and then had a few more innings where he did the same thing, including a fear near-perfect innings where he struck out the side on less than 15 pitches. Just unreal.
 

BaseballJones

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7-year Peak Pedro: 1997-2003 - 2.20 era, 213 era+, 2.26 fip, 0.94 whip, 11.3 k/9
4-year Peak Pedro: 1999-2002 - 2.07 era, 233 era+, 1.88 fip, 0.87 whip, 12.0 k/9
4-year Peak deGrom: 2018-2021 - 1.93 era, 205 era+, 2.12 fip, 0.88 whip, 12.0 k/9

So 4-year peak deGrom is in the same universe as 4-year peak Pedro, but he's not quite as good. The same k/9 numbers need to be adjusted for the era as well. In 2001 in the AL, there were an average of 6.4 k/9 over the course of the entire league for the entire season. In 2021 in the NL, there's been an average of 9.2 k/9 over the course of the entire league for the entire season so far. So a completely different strikeout environment. This makes Pedro's 12.0 k/9 much more impressive than deGrom's current 12.0 k/9.

So yeah, 4-year Peak Pedro is still better than 4-year Peak deGrom, but it's uncomfortably close for my tastes.
 

NotMyFault

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7-year Peak Pedro: 1997-2003 - 2.20 era, 213 era+, 2.26 fip, 0.94 whip, 11.3 k/9
4-year Peak Pedro: 1999-2002 - 2.07 era, 233 era+, 1.88 fip, 0.87 whip, 12.0 k/9
4-year Peak deGrom: 2018-2021 - 1.93 era, 205 era+, 2.12 fip, 0.88 whip, 12.0 k/9

So 4-year peak deGrom is in the same universe as 4-year peak Pedro, but he's not quite as good. The same k/9 numbers need to be adjusted for the era as well. In 2001 in the AL, there were an average of 6.4 k/9 over the course of the entire league for the entire season. In 2021 in the NL, there's been an average of 9.2 k/9 over the course of the entire league for the entire season so far. So a completely different strikeout environment. This makes Pedro's 12.0 k/9 much more impressive than deGrom's current 12.0 k/9.

So yeah, 4-year Peak Pedro is still better than 4-year Peak deGrom, but it's uncomfortably close for my tastes.
Also worth noting that Pedro's output through the 4-year peak was greater than deGrom's:

Pedro 746.1 IP (108 g)
deGrom 574 IP (90 g)
 

BaseballJones

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I mean, sure, but it seems like you're including 2021 (only about halfway through) and 2020 (duh) in that #.
You aren't talking to me but keep in mind that Pedro, due to injuries, only pitched in 116.2 innings in 2001. So that's the counter to this point you make.

In his last two *full* seasons, deGrom has pitched 217.0 and 204.0 innings (2018-19). In 1999 and 2000, Pedro pitched 213.1 and 217.0 innings, respectively.
 

Bozo Texino

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Not to take anything away from DeGrom, but Pedro did pitch through a pretty bonkers era, offensively.
 

drbretto

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At a certain level, comparisons are impossible. There are too many ways to look at things. Differences in eras, etc.

He deserves to be talked about in the same sentence. That's validation enough.
 

snowmanny

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I heard Mike Greenberg decare DeGom "The most dominant athlete in America." Until he does this for a whole season and whole post-season I am not putting him ahead of Brady. And until she either retires, loses, or at a minimum stops inventing moves they name after her, I am not putting him near Biles. But still incredible.

How is he only tied with Zack Wheeler for BRef WAR?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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How is he only tied with Zack Wheeler for BRef WAR?
Wheeler has a 21 inning lead on him. I think ballparks might also be a factor. Pitching at Citizens Bank Park might be a plus in Wheeler's column compared to Citi Field.

Interestingly, Wheeler's pitching only WAR is 4.7 compared to deGrom's 4.2. DeGrom makes up the difference with his bat.
 

LogansDad

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Man, I missed his start again yesterday. We need to start a thread that gets updated daily with like "Today's must Watch" or something. I don't know if anyone other than me would be interested, or if I should start it, as I can't promise to keep it updated every day, but it would be a nice resource and reminder.

As an aside, Wheeler is pitching today.
 

Omar's Wacky Neighbor

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Leaving in a bit to the studio :)
Excellent point, Cesar. His last 8 starts he's not thrown more than 88 pitches. Makes me wonder why they're pulling him so soon. During a three-game stretch in May, he threw 68 pitches over 5.0 innings, 63 pitches over 5.0 innings, and 70 pitches over 6.0 innings. Was that when he was dealing with some arm issues? Maybe they're just babying him (for precautionary reasons)?
This has been an every 4-to-5 day discussion at our north NJ dog park for months now.

I haven't run into Minaya in quite a while, but before I even planned to ask him how the boys/family are doing, I planned to ask about pulling DeGrom so early so often.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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So the Mets will be battling for a playoff spot and desperate to bring him back even though he probably won't be able to give them starter innings even if he can. At least with the minor league season pushed back two weeks beyond Labor Day this year, players trying to return in September will still have an opportunity for a regular rehab assignment.
 

jon abbey

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The Mets next 13 games are all against the Dodgers and Giants, so we’ll see where they stand after that.