Can We Talk About the Defense?

[BaseballJones]

Halfway through the season, here are the Patriots' relevant defensive rankings....
 
Per Game Stats
Yards allowed:  346.0 (#12)
Pass yards allowed:  249.3 (#15)
Pass yards per attempt:  7.1 (#12)
Passer rating allowed:  85.3 (#9)
Sacks:  26 (#3)
Rush yards allowed:  96.7 (#7)
Rush yards per attempt:  4.2 (#20)
Points allowed:  19.0 (#9)
3rd downs allowed:  40.0% (#21)
Takeaways:  10 (#19)
DVOA rank:  #11
DSRS rank:  #12
 
So they are slightly better than average, it seems, in terms of pass defense.  They don't really generate many turnovers.  They do ok at defending the run, but give up more yards per rushing attempt than average.  They don't get off the field very well on third down.  So it seems like what's happening is that other teams can run on them, but the Pats get a lead and the other team needs to throw.  And while they pile up yards, they get sacked a lot and throw a lot of incompletions.  And they stop running the ball, which helps the Patriots' rushing yards allowed number.
 
I think the defense is a little better than average.  Nothing special.  But not too bad.  Seems like they are between the 10th and 14th best defense in the league, on the whole.
 
That's definitely a defense you can win a Super Bowl with.  Using just pro-football-reference's DSRS ranking, here's where the last 10 SB-winning teams have ranked:
 
2014 Patriots:  #6
2013 Seahawks:  #1
2012 Ravens:  #15
2011 Giants:  #23
2010 Packers:  #1
2009 Saints:  #19
2008 Steelers:  #1
2007 Giants:  #17
2006 Colts:  #20
2005 Steelers:  #4
 
Average rank:  #10.7 - right around where New England ranks this year.
 
Same exercise, by DVOA
 
2014 Patriots:  #12
2013 Seahawks:  #1
2012 Ravens:  #19
2011 Giants:  #19
2010 Packers:  #2
2009 Saints:  #17
2008 Steelers:  #1
2007 Giants:  #13
2006 Colts:  #25
2005 Steelers:  #3
 
Average rank:  #11.2 - again, right around where New England currently ranks.  
 
So this defense definitely can win a championship, especially with this caliber of offense.  But what do you all think needs to improve?  Where do you think they'll end up ranked as a defense by season's end?  Will they be able to get off the field in a big spot come playoff time?  Will they get the ball back for the offense so Brady et al can do their thing?  Will the defense be a key component to their success, or will they succeed in spite of it?

 

[MarcSullivaFan]

FWIW, DVOA numbers you cite do not include Week 8, which was one of their better performances of the season, particularly against the run. MIA was the 4th ranked rushing offense coming into the game. They've played the run well two weeks in a row. If the pass d is top 10 (and I think it can be) and the run defense is middle of the pack, that's a pretty good defense in pass heavy league.

Stating the obvious, but depth at corner is clearly the biggest concern.

 

[C4CRVT]

In my opinion the DVOA ratings for (for instance) the Giants and Ravens D in their respective championship years aren't necessarily reflective of the way those defenses played. They got hot late in the year or during the playoffs. So while the Pats D might seem to be in line with some of the past years championship teams, they're likely going to have to play better than that in the playoffs.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think the defense is better than the numbers suggest.  Its hard to quantify, but we've given up a fair number of garbage time yards and points.  We've also only forced six fumbles and recovered two, numbers that are particularly low given the number of sacks we've had.  So I expect positive regression in the turnover numbers.
 
If we stay healthy, I think the defense is plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl. 

 

[Phragle]

They're also 7th best in points allowed per drive. That's a lot better than I expected.

 

[Marciano490]

I think the defense is better than the numbers suggest.  Its hard to quantify, but we've given up a fair number of garbage time yards and points.  We've also only forced six fumbles and recovered two, numbers that are particularly low given the number of sacks we've had.  So I expect positive regression in the turnover numbers.
 
If we stay healthy, I think the defense is plenty good enough to win a Super Bowl. 

Can these numbers be broken out for just the first half?

 

[BaseballJones]

Last 5 games, the defense has allowed:
 
17 points, 293 yards
6 points, 264 yards
27 points, 409 yards
23 points, 372 yards
7 points, 270 yards
 
Averages:  16.0 points, 321.6 yards
 
Those figures, if played out over a full season, would rank NE tied for 1st in points allowed (Denver is also at 16.0), and 6th in yards allowed.
 
So they're playing pretty well lately.

 

[Van Everyman]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but this is a great, great piece on Matty P and what a huge asset he is to the organization:

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/more-xs-and-os-patricia-inspires-patriots-defense

 

[Saints Rest]

What stands out to me about this defense, in its absence, are turnovers. The Pats have often, especially of late, had defenses whose stats didn't show very much but made up for it with FFs and INTs. There haven't been a whole lot of either this year.

In the same vein, I went digging last night, to no avail, to find out how many points this year's defense had directly scored, as my memory couldn't remember any. Am I wrong? And is there a place where one can see how many points -- either via INT, FF, or safety -- that a team has generated?

By the same token, is there a place to see how many points an offense has directly given away (in the case of this year, all I can think of is the Pick-6 that bounced off Edelman.

 

[luckiestman]

In my opinion the DVOA ratings for (for instance) the Giants and Ravens D in their respective championship years aren't necessarily reflective of the way those defenses played. They got hot late in the year or during the playoffs. So while the Pats D might seem to be in line with some of the past years championship teams, they're likely going to have to play better than that in the playoffs.

Colts too.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

Wasn't sure where to put this, but this is a great, great piece on Matty P and what a huge asset he is to the organization:

http://www.csnne.com/new-england-patriots/more-xs-and-os-patricia-inspires-patriots-defense

Fantastic read, thank you for sharing Van. It will be a sad day when he takes a head coaching gig elsewhere.