Castillo: What ya got?

[JimBoSox9]

According to http://www.overthemonster.com/2014/8/15/6005419/rusney-castillo-cuban-free-agent-red-sox (h/t GreenMonster), bids are due today, and Castillo will choose a winner next week.  What would you do, and what will happen?  Defend your choices.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I said $46-$50M. But one thing I'm not clear on--is there supposed to be a fixed length to these contract offers? I.e., is everybody supposed to make a four-year or five-year offer or whatever? I said $46-$50M assuming this would be a 5-year offer.
 
I'm not that high on Castillo, partly because nearly every source I've seen suggests that scouts see him as a step behind Puig, Cespedes, Abreu, etc. in talent, and partly because he seems conspicuously redundant with Betts. Very similar skill set--great speed, line drive power, defensive versatility to play multiple skill positions--except Betts seems to have a more advanced plate approach. So if we sign Castillo, Betts' highest and best use becomes as trade bait. Which isn't necessarily a bad scenario, it's just not a scenario I want the Sox to invest a lot of money in. If they agree, Castillo probably ends up somewhere else.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I wouldn't bid. I don't see how he fits in.

 

[pockmeister]

I wouldn't bid. I don't see how he fits in.

 
Agreed.  It would be good to have that option on the poll.  He doesn't appear to fulfill a need in the current team, so unless there are plans for some very creative trading over the winter, the dollars would be better invested in starting pitching and resolving the 3B / SS dilemmas

 

[foulkehampshire]

I wouldn't bid. I don't see how he fits in.

 
Traded for GIANCARLO STANTON

 

[jimbobim]

If he can play infield and outfield and hit above league average and steal some bases we can find a place for him. 
 
I think a better way to think about it is through the lens of does the team expect to be in the market for a bat this off season.
 
More specifically  If say you wanted to shore up the left side of the infield by committing to a risky but defensible bat such as Pablo, Hanley, or trying to package a sizable amount of the young pitching for Tulo or continue to rely on X,WMB, JBJ,Mookie,Cechhini, Marrero to fill out 3 positions at SS 3B CF( Victorino and JBJ are the two elephants in the room one is coming of back surgery and the other still is severely struggling at the plate).
 
There are a variety of places this team could use an upgrade and saying "There's no fit" on this team is indicating a preference to rely on youth and a healthy victorino again.
 
Instead Why not take a money only risk on a Cuban talent? when the market has recently produced pretty much all big league talent and beat original scouting expectations.
 
Also although he's said not to be on that level I would love for Castillo to be good enough where we have "OF or INF problem" with  too many bats. The offense has been beyond putrid this year. 

 

[Plympton91]

I would bid under the assumption that neither Craig nor Victorino is ever going to be an effective major leaguer again, that Bradley is what he is, and that Cespedes signs elsewhere after next season. Once you take that view, there's plenty of space for Castillo, if he's good. From what I've read, he's Brett Gardner with more consistent power and a better arm, or alternatively, he's Victorino with a little less defensive value. So, that suggests something like $12 million a season is about right, and at age 27 or whatever, up to 6 years of length should be comfortable. I guess I'd go 5-$60 and cross my fingers. But, I'm happy to live with whatever they establish as value, as long it's a serious bid or a definitive statement that think what they have is better.

 

[Reverend]

I have no idea what I would bid, but I'm a bit flummoxed by the "Eh, we have enough talent already" faction.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

What would we do with Willie McGee?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

There are a variety of places this team could use an upgrade and saying "There's no fit" on this team is indicating a preference to rely on youth and a healthy victorino again.
 
Instead Why not take a money only risk on a Cuban talent? when the market has recently produced pretty much all big league talent and beat original scouting expectations. 

 
I said $31-35MM, since a pro-rated $8MM per year from signing through 2018 sounded pretty fair for the amount of "high-risk" money I'd be happy with the Sox offering Rusney.
 
He's another RHH, and while that would have been lovely back when Farrell was rolling out Pierzynski-Sizemore-Herrera-Bradley-Holt all in a row against Drew Smyly, the team's forward-looking lineup composition was already significantly improved at the trade deadline.
 
Adding Craig and Cespedes to the preexisting obligations of Napoli, Victorino, and Pedroia and a few minimum-salary contracts (WMB, XB, and CV) means the Sox are already committed to almost $60MM among seven "regular starting" RH hitters next season.
 
Thinking "it's just money" too often leads directly into too much dead money on the books to field a competitive team.  So yeah, if the Sox are planning to throw big money around before 2015, I'd rather see it flung Jon Lester's way.  I wouldn't look askance at an assumed overpay for Koji and Miller, either.

 

[Reverend]

What would we do with Willie McGee?

 
Exactly.

 

[pokey_reese]

I voted for giving him $36-40 million assuming a 6-year deal.  I think that's a reasonable enough AAV to deal with him not being as good as you hope and turning out to be a 4th OF on a very good team, and also making him attractive enough to deal if he turns out to be ok to a team that can use him more.
 
I think he will get a bit more than that, but not too much.  He lacks the name and degree of success in Cuba that the other recent imports have had, and whatever implied market inefficiency there was on Cuban players over the last few years has probably disappeared already.  I would rather see money splashed around for traditional younger international prospects than breaking the bank on someone who is likely going to be past his prime for much of this contract.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Traded for GIANCARLO STANTON

Maybe break this out into a new Stanton thread?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

What would we do with Willie McGee?

 
 

 
Exactly.

 
Excepting, of course, that Willie McGee already had more than 5000 PA against MLB pitching when he hit free agency.
 
Castillo's got 0.  And while recent returns on Cuban defectors has been good, he's not a sure thing.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I have no idea what I would bid, but I'm a bit flummoxed by the "Eh, we have enough talent already" faction.

 
Well, they have a finite amount of resources and roster spots, so I can understand that point of view. I also see the appeal of simply stocking up where you can and dealing with a surplus later. They should absolutely be making a competitive bid for Castillo, I just don't think they should go crazy to ensure no one tops them. Take your best guess at what he'll end up signing for and then make a decision about whether you are willing to go that high based on your evaluation of him. If you land him, great. If not, trust your talent evaluation and move on to the next target.
 
I think they are more likely to overbid for Tomas because of the fact that they have so many outfielders on the major league roster already, and could stash him in Pawtucket for a season if need be. That said, I agree with Plympton on his value and would go 5/60 or so.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Excepting, of course, that Willie McGee already had more than 5000 PA against MLB pitching when he hit free agency.
 
Castillo's got 0.  And while recent returns on Cuban defectors has been good, he's not a sure thing.

 
Bingo. There's a lot of that old Peter Gammons trick going on in this thread--introducing hypotheticals and then treating them as implicitly more or less certain. "If he's Brett Gardner with power"--well yeah, if he's Brett Gardner with power, he's worth a sizable bid. But we don't know that he is yet. We only know that some scout made that comparison.
 
Until he plays in the major leagues, he's essentially a prospect--maybe a AAAA prospect if you want to look at it that way. It's not true that all recent Cuban defectors have outperformed expectations. Puig has. Depending on who you ask, Abreu has. Cespedes has, at best, matched his billing. Viciedo has fallen short of it.
 
Here's what was written about Castillo on BA last winter before the feeding frenzy began:
 
Defection Of Top Cuban Outfielder Rusney Castillo Could Shake Up Free Agent Market 
 

More of a doubles hitter than a big home run threat, Castillo puts a charge into the ball with a line-drive righthanded swing, though he can get long to the ball at times and some scouts think he’s prone to chasing pitches off the plate. Primarily a center fielder in Cuba, Castillo has also played some second and third base, so his versatility could be a draw for some teams. He’s an aggressive, high-energy player, though some teams see him as a fourth outfielder.

 
Does that sound like a guy worth making an aggressive bid for? It doesn't to me. Oh, yeah, but, Abreu! Puig! Well, this isn't Abreu and it isn't Puig. It's a defensively versatile speed guy with doubles power and a propensity to chase. That could turn out to be Brett Gardner with power, or it could turn out to be Damian Jackson with a big price tag.
 
Of course we don't have too much talent. But you're talking about investing tens of millions in a 27-year-old whose skill set is a very close match for a cost-controlled 21-year-old on your roster, and whose certainty of making that skill set work in the majors does not seem significantly superior to the 21-year-old's. I'm in favor of making a bid, because this isn't like the posting system; there's nothing to lose but the staff time spent on putting the bid together. But I'm not in favor of making an aggressive bid. Throw a lowball-ish number out there; either you don't get him, or it turns out everybody else had cold feet too and yours were the warmest, and you get him for a reasonable bargain. He just doesn't strike me as worth going out on a payroll limb for.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
 
 
Excepting, of course, that Willie McGee already had more than 5000 PA against MLB pitching when he hit free agency.
 
Castillo's got 0.  And while recent returns on Cuban defectors has been good, he's not a sure thing.

 
Absolutely. But I'm not talking about does he have major league experience, I'm responding to the below
 

I wouldn't bid. I don't see how he fits in.

 
which simply dismisses him entirely.  I mean, there has to be some price point where you bring him in to see if he's 50% as good as Puig or Abreu.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

What would we do with Willie McGee?

Trade him for Stanton!

Duh.

 

[ji oh]

...
 
Here's what was written about Castillo on BA last winter before the feeding frenzy began:
 
Defection Of Top Cuban Outfielder Rusney Castillo Could Shake Up Free Agent Market 
 
 
Does that sound like a guy worth making an aggressive bid for? It doesn't to me. Oh, yeah, but, Abreu! Puig! Well, this isn't Abreu and it isn't Puig. It's a defensively versatile speed guy with doubles power and a propensity to chase. That could turn out to be Brett Gardner with power, or it could turn out to be Damian Jackson with a big price tag.
 
...

 
Isn't it true that he put on a lot of muscle and has shown much more power in his workouts than he did in Cuba, so people think more highly of him now?  It's just batting practice power, true, so caution is warranted.  But the scouting reports have changed.

 

[Drek717]

 
Here's what was written about Castillo on BA last winter before the feeding frenzy began:
More of a doubles hitter than a big home run threat, Castillo puts a charge into the ball with a line-drive righthanded swing, though he can get long to the ball at times and some scouts think he’s prone to chasing pitches off the plate. Primarily a center fielder in Cuba, Castillo has also played some second and third base, so his versatility could be a draw for some teams. He’s an aggressive, high-energy player, though some teams see him as a fourth outfielder.

the Red Sox front office was contemplating moving Jose Abreu to 3B.  I'm pretty sure Castillo profiles there significantly better physically and by this has played there before.  Middlebrooks isn't showing he deserves the job, the free agent market will likely cost you more than Castillo is going to for an older player.
 
So 6 years, $55M to add a guy who can play 3B and any OF position?  Yeah, sounds like their kind of move.  Then if Cecchini does come around in a year or so Castillo can move to the OF competition.  Plenty of options to work with and it only costs money.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So 6 years, $55M to add a guy who can play 3B and any OF position? 

 
Willie Bloomquist can do that, too.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Get the player and figure out the position later.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

Dont get the "we have enough talent" feeling.
You cant go wrong by adding a good talent to your pool. Of course, it all comes down to our scouting staff evaluation to determine this.
Nowadays, we have only one reliable OF and that is Cespedes. We have many other players that are question marks, are either injury prone, cant seem to hit ML pitching or are unexperienced and not ready yet.
Plus, by adding more talent you have more trading chips and the Red Sox figure to explore the market this offseason for SP and maybe try to get that second proven OF (with Stanton being the best case scenario albeit a close to impossible one).
We know how the front office wont get in the bidding for top pitching, so you might as well trade for players you have under control for a couple of seasons or have reasonable contracts.
So, bottomline, if Castillo is considered good enough by our evaluators, go get him. We figure then what we do with our talent. Having options is a great thing.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If you can get him for 10 mil, sure. But that isn't going tp happen. I'd pass om any reasonable offer. It's not so much dismissing all together as it is dismissing a competitive bid that may land him.

 

[snowmanny]

 
You have a link for that? I don't recall having ever read him being considered for anything other than 1B or DH considering his poor physical profile. 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/al-east-notes-abreu-lester-sox-jays-headley-yanks-os.html

 

[Drek717]

Interesting. I wonder how much truth there is to it but obviously the idea was at least raised. Thank god they didn't go through with it, that would have been a disaster, given he's been below average even at 1B.

Given what the Sox have gotten offensively out of 3B the last almost two years he could stand on 3B all damn game and be worth more than what they've been getting.