Catching Hell
- Thread starter Marbleheader
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I realize that 2 months can be a frustratingly long period of time to watch both the catchers not hit the side of a barn, but what do you all consider the definition, time wise, to be SSS? Isn't 2 months still just that or is that actually predictive of future performance? They seem to be turning it around anyhow, or at least showing glimmers of that.
In terms of a stat like wRC+ (which I like as a broad offensive indicator), there is very little predictive value in a 2 month sample. It's really only a snapshot of past performance over a given time period. Obviously, different statistics stabilize over smaller or larger samples and this one isn't much use as a future indicator in this small of a sample.
At this point, though, we're starting to get a general idea of what the overall season line will look like. For instance, bosox79's post showing they'd need to put up a .774 OPS the rest of the year to finish over .700 tells us that it's probably unlikely. Showing the last 14 days vs. the last 30 days shows just how volatile the numbers still are. Look at Vazquez: 116 wRC+ in the last 2 weeks, yet only a 54 over 30 days - which is only double the sample. But, he obviously has produced very differently over that period than the rest of the season previous. Regression? Luck? Has he figured something out and turned a corner? My vote is for simple regression - he isn't (and never was) going to be as bad as a 25 wRC+ over a full season. But how far from that will he be? At the two month mark, the full season error bars are still huge. We can start making some general assumptions about guys at the ends of the performance spectrum. For example, it's safe to say Vazquez isn't going to have an All-Star-caliber season, and Mookie is going to have a good season. And, we can start to see some trends: again, Vazquez is on an uptick and Devers is in a spiral. But, the samples are still too small to know how predictive those trends are. If we have guys who have been poor all season and are continuing in that direction, we're getting to the point where we need to be worried about them. However, we don't really have any of those guys. Nunez, Devers, and Swihart come closest to fitting the bill. Devers had a decent first month, though (89 wRC+); Nunez is/should be a bench player and has enough of a track record that we should expect marginal improvement on the current 72 wRC+; Swihart only has a quarter of the PAs as a starter - so he isn't really at the 2 month mark yet. For me, the end of June is where it starts making sense to worry about a player's rest of the season. Statistically speaking, that's still probably too early.
Probably worth noting that Sandy Leon's wRC of 78 would place the Redsox 7/15 teams in catcher production. They aren't all that far off from it either since the bar is a very low one to clear. Up until yesterday, a 1/4 with a single would have improved Vazquez's OPS, after all. Pretty much all of his value over the last 15 and 30 days came in his last 3 games, and that includes an 0-3 and a bb sandwiched in between.
If all of this is true, and it's written convincingly for sure, then the vast majority of this thread is hand wringing and speculation.
Writing about sports whether on the professional or amateur level is about 53% hand-wringing, 38% speculation, 4% simple reporting of facts, and 5% actual insightful analysis.
At the best of times.
This is fantastic! The only thing that would've made it better would be if the percentages didn't add up to 100%.
See, I thought it was about 93% perspiration, 6% inspiration, 3% perspiration, and 2% butterscotch ripple.
4% - Vaz went 2-4 tonight. 38% - Things are turning around! 53% - This probably won't last, shitty contract. 5% - ?????
Last 16 games for Vazquez: .296/.333/.444 on a .311 BAbip in 57 PA.
Last 17 games for Leon: .293/.328/.466 on a .405 BAbip in 61 PA. 3bb/19k.
Unfortunately, most of Leon's production over that time was in the first 9 games. The last 8: .148/.148/.185 in 27 PA with 0bb/10k, .235 BAbip.
Even with that, I think most of us are doing carthweels with that type of performance over roughly a month. Vazquez's streak started on May 18th, Leon's on May 6th.
That's a combined .294/.331/.455 line in 118 PA. Granted, they don't start at the same time so I'm not sure combining them is all that useful. And Blake Swihart still sucks.
Last 17 games for Leon: .293/.328/.466 on a .405 BAbip in 61 PA. 3bb/19k.
Unfortunately, most of Leon's production over that time was in the first 9 games. The last 8: .148/.148/.185 in 27 PA with 0bb/10k, .235 BAbip.
Even with that, I think most of us are doing carthweels with that type of performance over roughly a month. Vazquez's streak started on May 18th, Leon's on May 6th.
That's a combined .294/.331/.455 line in 118 PA. Granted, they don't start at the same time so I'm not sure combining them is all that useful. And Blake Swihart still sucks.
Mentioned this in another thread but we may (or may not) actually have catching depth in the minors.
Former 3rd round pick Austin Rei is slashing .294/.406/.469 in 175 PA since April 23. For the year, .250/.372/.403 in 215 PA. He does turn 25 in October and he's only in AA but catchers are supposed to develop later on, and he did miss some development time to injury IIRC. Rei has always been a guy who walks a lot, but hasn't been able to hit for contact. Decent arm, ok defense. Might be worth following, although he probably doesn't come into the picture until next year at the earliest.
Former 3rd round pick Austin Rei is slashing .294/.406/.469 in 175 PA since April 23. For the year, .250/.372/.403 in 215 PA. He does turn 25 in October and he's only in AA but catchers are supposed to develop later on, and he did miss some development time to injury IIRC. Rei has always been a guy who walks a lot, but hasn't been able to hit for contact. Decent arm, ok defense. Might be worth following, although he probably doesn't come into the picture until next year at the earliest.
It is nice to see him get on track. He sure looked like a lost cause from the get-go and the waste of a 3rd round pick (I'm not sure if I'm allowed to call that a high draft pick or not...). Hopefully, he can keep progressing. For a dose of pessimistic perspective: He's only a year and a half younger than Swihart. By that age, Vazquez had 55 MLB games under his belt and a .700+ OPS at both AA and AAA.
Quoted this from the "Should we be worried thread".
Kinda crazy as bad as Leon has been, he's still been the best hitter of the bunch.
Leon .206/.260/.322 in 234 PA
Vaz .213/.249/.300 in 218 PA
Swihart .213/.273/.287 in 132 PA.
Career wise, they are all pretty similar too
Leon .235/.297/.351 on a .300 BAbip in 1053 PA
Vaz .249/.297/.341 on a .297 BAbip in 948 PA
Swihart .256/.315/.358 on a .340 BAbip in 522 PA
They all look like catchers who will ride or die on their BAbip. Most of their offensive value comes from hitting for average since they don't really hit for any type of power. That's what makes Swihart intriguing going forward. He should have a higher BAbip due to having the speed to leg out some infield hits and he's also more likely to take a walk than the other 2. If he's hitting for a higher average while walking at a better clip, the difference in OBP would be hard to ignore. The question is will it be enough to offset the defensive value lost and can Swihart actually hit closer to .270 than .235-.250? That also assumes Leon and Vaz are .235-.250 hitters. And to date, shockingly enough, Sandy Leon has an 8.4% infield hit to Swihart's 6.7% . Vaz is at 3.9%.
And Austin Rei continues to mash in Portland and has pedigree. He's slashing .256/.366/.419 in 279 PA at AA. Since May 1st: .288/.389/.465 on a .333 BAbip in 234 PA with 27bb/44k. He's always had a good eye, so it's nice to see the contract rate and ISO improve this year. Still don't know how his defense is regarded but he might play into the decision on whether the Sox carry 3 catchers again next year. Considering Swihart has the ability to play other positions, this might not be an issue anyway. It wasn't that much of an issue this year.
I hope they don't put too much stock into the W-L record with Leon, but I also don't know that Swihart is that much better of an alternative. With the 9 game lead, the Sox should be using some of this time to find out one way or another what they have with Swihart. He was hitting well prior to the DL stint but it was heavily BAbip fueled. (.405/.463/.595 line with a .468 BAbip in 41PA ) Of course, prior to that his BAbip was .216 in 80 PA. For the season, he's now at .213/.273/.287 on a .287 BAbip in 132 PA.
Kinda crazy as bad as Leon has been, he's still been the best hitter of the bunch.
Leon .206/.260/.322 in 234 PA
Vaz .213/.249/.300 in 218 PA
Swihart .213/.273/.287 in 132 PA.
Career wise, they are all pretty similar too
Leon .235/.297/.351 on a .300 BAbip in 1053 PA
Vaz .249/.297/.341 on a .297 BAbip in 948 PA
Swihart .256/.315/.358 on a .340 BAbip in 522 PA
They all look like catchers who will ride or die on their BAbip. Most of their offensive value comes from hitting for average since they don't really hit for any type of power. That's what makes Swihart intriguing going forward. He should have a higher BAbip due to having the speed to leg out some infield hits and he's also more likely to take a walk than the other 2. If he's hitting for a higher average while walking at a better clip, the difference in OBP would be hard to ignore. The question is will it be enough to offset the defensive value lost and can Swihart actually hit closer to .270 than .235-.250? That also assumes Leon and Vaz are .235-.250 hitters. And to date, shockingly enough, Sandy Leon has an 8.4% infield hit to Swihart's 6.7% . Vaz is at 3.9%.
And Austin Rei continues to mash in Portland and has pedigree. He's slashing .256/.366/.419 in 279 PA at AA. Since May 1st: .288/.389/.465 on a .333 BAbip in 234 PA with 27bb/44k. He's always had a good eye, so it's nice to see the contract rate and ISO improve this year. Still don't know how his defense is regarded but he might play into the decision on whether the Sox carry 3 catchers again next year. Considering Swihart has the ability to play other positions, this might not be an issue anyway. It wasn't that much of an issue this year.
I agree that Rei’s improvement this year has been an unheralded success story for the minor leagues. Hopefully, he builds on that improvement this winter and starts at Pawtucket next season. If so, he’d represent at least a much better “break glass in case of emergency” option than they had this year. In that event, trading Leon or Swihart this winter could be an option.
Over his last 47 games and 149 PA, Leon is slashing .119/.192/.179. Brings his season line to .184/.242/.290. Minus 2016, he's been absolutely dreadful at the plate.
Since returning from the DL, Swihart is slashing .217/.250/.283 in 19 games, 48 PA. To date: .224/.277/.298.
Vaz is hitting .222/.333/.278 in 21 PA since returning off the DL, bringing his season line to .213/.256/.298.
As a team, from the catching position: .201/.252/.297 in 560 PA. The league average catcher is at .233/.305/.375.
It's pretty amazing to have 3 catchers all below a .300 obp and .300 slugging %.
Since returning from the DL, Swihart is slashing .217/.250/.283 in 19 games, 48 PA. To date: .224/.277/.298.
Vaz is hitting .222/.333/.278 in 21 PA since returning off the DL, bringing his season line to .213/.256/.298.
As a team, from the catching position: .201/.252/.297 in 560 PA. The league average catcher is at .233/.305/.375.
It's pretty amazing to have 3 catchers all below a .300 obp and .300 slugging %.
After today's first game, Swihart is up to .233/.289/.333 for the year. That's a full 100 points of OPS above Leon (.518) and 77 points higher than Vazquez (.545). If you look at splits for more recent performance (2nd half, last 30 days, last 14 days, etc.), those gaps grow to 3-5 times that size. I'm not sure how much it means (or should mean) for playoff roster construction, but Swihart is currently a significantly better hitter than the other two.
I know cherry picking... but anyone looking at Swihart's stats has to really take into account absolutely zero plate appearance consistency in the first half. Zero. I do not and never will judge any offensive stats if someone is only given sporadic chances to hit. Consistency and rhythm means absolutely everything to these guys.
Mentioned it somewhere on this board a few days back, but not this thread.
Swihart's last 46 games, 121 PA: .286/.339/.429 on a .367 BAbip.
First 34 games, 80 PA: .149/.213/.176, .216 BAbip.
Clearly some luck involved in both, but given his speed you'd expect a higher BAbip, just not .367. Small samples either way but positive none the less.
I will be rather upset if he's not on th postseason roster. I understand the Leon will probably get most of the starts because of how much the SPs love pitching to him/how he calls a game, but in close/late situations we should almost always be hitting for him.
I think I've found the silver lining to the 3 catcher on the roster issue. We'll only see one on the field at a time.
Well, probably only because we really have to - I think it'd be a problem if we just waited and had someone retrieve the ball at the backstop after every pitch. And I don't think the umpire would appreciate having to jump out of the way of every pitch to avoid getting hit (although I guess they could stand behind the batter for cover - I'm sure that wouldn't help them in calling an accurate strike zone, although it would give them an excuse).
It’s amazing that we have to look back all the way to the 4-game MFY series two months ago, to find games that suggest how Cora might manage in a critical situation.
We saw Cora go to Swihart as PH early in order to mount a comeback early in the first game of that set, and I don’t think we’ll see different in the postseason, if similar circumstances arise.
They’ll definitely carry all three.
Looking at 2nd half numbers (which is just an arbitrary, sloppy split, especially considering injuries and sample size) on fangraphs of the 65 MLB catchers with 50+ PA (Vazquez had 51), Swihart ranked #30 in OPS (.706), #32 in wRC+ (88), #30 in wOBA (.307), #2 in BsR (1.1), #22 in Offensive Runs (-0.5), #65 in Defensive Runs (-0.5), and #34 in WAR (0.3). Only 2 of the other 64 guys had a negative number for Defensive Runs. Astudillo (-0.4), like Swihart, played positions other than C. Kevan Smith (-0.4), apparently, is a terrible, terrible catcher. As was mentioned in the "Sandy Leon is so good defensively, the Red Sox never lose when he catches" thread, I find catcher defensive value stats to be roughly worthless, anyway. To make a long story short, Swihart was, at worst, of average value among catchers over the course of the 2nd half. Too bad he hardly played there.
Vazquez comes in at rank #16 for BsR (-0.1), #47 in Off (-4.0), #49 in Def (0.8), and #58 in WAR (-0.2) - buoyed, no doubt, by his limited amount of playing time to accrue suckage.
Leon: #39 in BsR (-0.7), #65 in Off (-18.3), #19 in Def (2.6), and #65 in WAR (-1.2).
Vazquez comes in at rank #16 for BsR (-0.1), #47 in Off (-4.0), #49 in Def (0.8), and #58 in WAR (-0.2) - buoyed, no doubt, by his limited amount of playing time to accrue suckage.
Leon: #39 in BsR (-0.7), #65 in Off (-18.3), #19 in Def (2.6), and #65 in WAR (-1.2).
Thankfully Gary Sanchez has had a poor second half at the plate as well (-3.2 Off, .283 wOBA, 75 wRC+)