With all of these rumours flying around, DA should just get Westbrook and Griffin and be over with it.
Celtics 16/17 Roster and Assets
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Ok so assuming a deal is with Boston how much would OKC be willing to accept in addition to the obvious inclusion of Isaiah and how much will we be willing to give up? I've said since draft day that the possibility exists to use Jaylen in a similar fashion as how Cleveland used Wiggins with a trade prior to training camp. This is different than a future BRK pick as there is certainly as to the value of the pick/player and it's a younger upside guy. So we've got Isaiah and Jaylen.......Avery? OKC gets a starting backcourt, both on value deals and a high-upside SF on his rookie contract. Throw in Amir to make the numbers work, one or two of OUR future non-lottery picks and wham bam take it to the podium Danny!!!!!
I'd have to think the BRK pick is VERY trade-able and attractive to the entire league.
Do you value it as the #1 pick or the #6?
This is why it is very difficult to move this pick and get full value.......because you don't know what full value is.
You keep saying the pick is hard to trade since its value is uncertain, but isn't that always the case with picks, there's always a level of uncertainty? They get traded all the time. In fact, the Celtics traded for those picks when there was far more uncertainty around them.
It's also funny to think the Cs would consider the value of 2017 BRK pick is a huge impediment to getting a top-5 player. Surely Presti and Ainge can bridge that gap and both assume it's ~3-4ish.
Danny may value it as a #6 and another GM may value it as a #1.
All players and picks traded have uncertain future value, thats the nature of the business
Don't you just view it as a likely high lottery pick? And then you make a determination on the quality of the 2017 draft, which is supposed to be pretty solid.
Yes, there are exceptions to any rule and some GM's are willing to gamble more than others based on job security, need to make a splash to preserve job security, etc. It's my opinion that the value of such a large part of a deal is a great impediment but I also agree that there are some scenarios where it "could" work but they are few and far between imo.
A top 6 pick in next years draft is highly valuable. Every team would want a chance to get a player like Giles, Taytum, Jackson, Monk, Fultz, Issac, Smith, or Fox.
Every NBA GM and their analytical staff will have an opinion on the value of that pick.
Exactly, and then the teams negotiate.
It's kind of the same with trading a player. The Celts may want to trade for Player A that they value at a certain level and the team trading him may value him differently. And even at the point in time when the pick gets a definite value, say the #2 pick, there's still no agreement because different teams value the players available at that spot differently.
That's the whole point of trades, trading things each team values differently.
How about a blast from the past as Plan F? http://www.celticslife.com/2016/07/semih-erden-to-make-nba-comeback.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
(Celtics apparently meeting with Semih Erden)
So this guy ran/runs the SB Nations Sonics blog (covers other Seattle sports as well now) Not sure how tied in he is.
He goes on to say that the deal is the '18 nets pick plus "odds and ends"
the griffin rumor guy, meanwhile, says he's wrong
Should I buy this home? It's value could go down. What if the seller thinks it's got more value than I do? WHAT DO I DO?!?!?!?
The Brooklyn picks are worthless if we keep passing up impact NBA players for Hoop Dreams.
I think it is a different case here, not because of a level of uncertainty, but a level of certainty.
I think it's trickier in this case because in most situations the traded pick isn't a virtual certainty to be a lottery pick, and usually the team trading the pick away is acquiring a player that should make the pick much less valuable. In this case since it's not their own pick, the pick value isn't affected by the incoming player.
I'd think in most cases the team trading away the pick would think, eh this pick is gonna be in the 20s anyway since we're gonna be great, while the acquiring team will dream on the pick being higher hoping their trade partner fails. So the team acquiring the pick would have a higher opinion of the asset.
In this case, I'd think it would be the reverse. Boston probably values the pick as a best case scenario top 3 pick, while the team they're dealing it to has to worry about the pick being closer to the 6 range.
I know if I were Ainge, I'd be worried I just gave up the #1 pick in the draft and a franchise player if I deal the pick. If I'm acquiring the pick, I'd be worried I valued the pick as a Ben Simmons type. but I ended up with a Buddy Hield type instead.
Yeah, I was joking since we'd obviously have to give at least one of them up in a deal. We have 2 likely high lotto picks coming up. I would trade one of them in a package for a star like Westbrook, Griffin, Cousins. I would trade both in the extremely unlikely scenario that a guy like Anthony Davis became available.
Correct. It is a tremendous risk on both sides.....which is what makes an agreement with such high variance a challenge. Only a secure GM would make a deal with such risk.......now Ainge and Presti are two of those guys so you never know. It is one thing to place an analytical value on a pick as #3.2 or #4.1 however if you aren't secure in your job none of that matters if you lose out on a future HOF at #1 or as you say end up with a role player like what Buddy Hield ends up with. This is stuff that costs people jobs and is why so many GM's are on the conservative side with trades that never get off the ground.
But given the near certainty of Westbrook leaving OKC next summer for nothing, does it really matter if the Brooklyn pick turns out to be a Hield type? He at least would have gotten something when he was going to get nothing. And the opportunity cost would be a first round playoff exit. I think Ainge is bearing more of the risk with respect to a potential Westbrook trade.
Of course, trading those picks + gutting the team's depth only to see these guys walk next summer would be a quick way for Daedalus and Icarus Ainge to become much less secure in their jobs.
I don't seem him taking the risk.
I don't seem him taking the risk.
Would he really be gutting the team's depth? I'd assume that whole point of including a Brooklyn pick would be to prevent such a thing. Hard to know without knowing the parameters of the deal (if they were even discussed) but if Smart, Brooklyn, filler doesn't get it done, then Ainge shouldn't do it.
If the price is Smart plus filler, sure, but it doesn't sound like that's the case. The rumored Clippers deal said they want 3 pieces, not 2, plus the pick. I don't see why they would be haggling over someone like James Young or RJ Hunter.
I think they're more likely asking for something like Smart, Bradley, Crowder and the pick. Danny isn't going to do that deal, but if he did, it would gut the team's depth. But something like Smart, Crowder, and a contract (JJ or Amir works for Russ, only Amir works for Blake), plus the pick would be interesting. It would leave the team thin at the 3, so maybe Danny could swing a deal for a Rudy Gay-type?
Edit- I'll add- I don't think Danny makes either trade unless he gets Blake to opt in to year 2 or Russ makes assurances about signing long-term/they have a long-term deal in place. I don't want Danny to trade Crowder and/or a BKL pick just to see the guy leave at the end of the season.
I think they're more likely asking for something like Smart, Bradley, Crowder and the pick. Danny isn't going to do that deal, but if he did, it would gut the team's depth. But something like Smart, Crowder, and a contract (JJ or Amir works for Russ, only Amir works for Blake), plus the pick would be interesting. It would leave the team thin at the 3, so maybe Danny could swing a deal for a Rudy Gay-type?
Edit- I'll add- I don't think Danny makes either trade unless he gets Blake to opt in to year 2 or Russ makes assurances about signing long-term/they have a long-term deal in place. I don't want Danny to trade Crowder and/or a BKL pick just to see the guy leave at the end of the season.
If there are no other suitors then Presti's back would be against the wall. Are their really no other suitors for Russell Westbrook? I see a ton of risk on both sides between not knowing where the pick will land via a lottery as well as Westbrook's contract status.
Not many other teams can top what the Celtics can offer. LA isn't trading young talent for a guy they can sign outright in a year. Teams like Philly aren't going to bother since they know he'd be gone in a year. There is certainly risk on both sides but the risk is slanted towards the team who's acquiring him, imo. If Ainge drops out of the bidding, Westbrook's price goes down. I'm saying all this assuming he's a goner next offseason.
Yes, it matters a lot.
If he decides to trade Westbrook, he'll get offers that have a key piece that is better than a Hield type.
First of all, you don't know that. Stars on their way out always go for much less than their perceived value. Secondly, he would also be getting a valuable piece like Smart. Thirdly, the #6 pick in 2016 may not have the same value as the #6 pick in 2017. A Hield type player is probably the floor of the potential value for the 2017 Nets pick. We're talking about an old one-dimensional prospect with 1 NBA skill and poor projectability. And even if you hit the worst case scenario on the pick, it's still better (combined with Smart and a flyer on a guy like Young or Hunter) than losing both Westbrook and Durant for zilch. If Westbrook is a strong lean to leave, Presti needs to trade him this summer to maximize his value. As we all know, waiting to the deadline only reduces his return.
Now, I agree with HRB that the variability of the pick creates some issues but I just don't see many teams being able to top a surefire lotto pick and a prospect like Smart. The playoff teams won't have the assets and the bad teams like Philly, Phoenix, Lakers, etc. aren't likely to trade real value for a potential 1 year rental. The Celtics are pretty uniquely positioned to be able to trade real value for a possible rental while also being good enough to convince Westbrook to sign longterm next summer.
Well of course it doesn't sound line thats the case because that is an absolute garbage offer. Every team in the league would offer OKC more than. a Smart type plus filler.
Who would be the trade candidates for Westbrook? (note: new draft picks cannot be traded until 30 days after signing)
Possibly in the picture (5+6)
BOS (discussed above, must send out $12.7+mm in salary under trade rules, lots of draft picks to trade) - Smart, Olynyk, Jerebko (expiring K, salary filler), Young (expiring K, salary filler), 2018 BRK pick OR Smart, Brown (30 days after signing), Jerebko (expiring K, salary filler), 2018 BRK pick
LAL (could structure trade to fit under cap, no 1st round picks to trade until 2021) - Randle, Russell, Nance, 2021 pick
LAC (cannot take net salary, no 1st round picks to trade until 2021) - Griffin+
MIN (could structure trade to fit under cap, no 1st round picks to trade until 2020) - Rubio, Muhammed, LaVine, 2020 pick
PHI (could structure trade to fit under cap, have multiple 1st round picks in 2017/2019) - Saric, Covington, Stauskas, 2017 pick
Could make a deal but Westbrook highly unlikely to re-sign (6)
ORL/DEN/PHX/MIL/CHA/UTA
Out of the picture for now (18)
NYK (cannot see this working unless there is a 3rd team to take Rose or if NYK is willing to trade Porzingis, my current favorite to sign Westbrook next summer)
BRK (ha ha)
HOU (no reunion with Harden)
GSW (no reunion with KD)
CHI (don't think he and Wade can co-exist)
CLE (don't think he and LeBron can co-exist)
DET (don't think Reggie Jackson is coming back)
SAC (just no)
MIA (cannot see a Dragic deal working, no 1st round picks to trade until 2023)
ATL/IND/DAL/NO (roster just doesn't work for a trade)
POR/SAS/MEM/WAS/TOR (cannot see them doing this deal)
Possibly in the picture (5+6)
BOS (discussed above, must send out $12.7+mm in salary under trade rules, lots of draft picks to trade) - Smart, Olynyk, Jerebko (expiring K, salary filler), Young (expiring K, salary filler), 2018 BRK pick OR Smart, Brown (30 days after signing), Jerebko (expiring K, salary filler), 2018 BRK pick
LAL (could structure trade to fit under cap, no 1st round picks to trade until 2021) - Randle, Russell, Nance, 2021 pick
LAC (cannot take net salary, no 1st round picks to trade until 2021) - Griffin+
MIN (could structure trade to fit under cap, no 1st round picks to trade until 2020) - Rubio, Muhammed, LaVine, 2020 pick
PHI (could structure trade to fit under cap, have multiple 1st round picks in 2017/2019) - Saric, Covington, Stauskas, 2017 pick
Could make a deal but Westbrook highly unlikely to re-sign (6)
ORL/DEN/PHX/MIL/CHA/UTA
Out of the picture for now (18)
NYK (cannot see this working unless there is a 3rd team to take Rose or if NYK is willing to trade Porzingis, my current favorite to sign Westbrook next summer)
BRK (ha ha)
HOU (no reunion with Harden)
GSW (no reunion with KD)
CHI (don't think he and Wade can co-exist)
CLE (don't think he and LeBron can co-exist)
DET (don't think Reggie Jackson is coming back)
SAC (just no)
MIA (cannot see a Dragic deal working, no 1st round picks to trade until 2023)
ATL/IND/DAL/NO (roster just doesn't work for a trade)
POR/SAS/MEM/WAS/TOR (cannot see them doing this deal)
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I do not believe Jaylen has signed his rookie contract so he could be included in a deal immediately. He also is not hiring an agent for his rookie deal so maybe he simply forgot. 
Don't underestimate the intense heat that Presti and the owners would feel if they dealt Westbrook now. They JUST lost Kevin Friggin Durant a week ago. The risk of losing Westbrook for nothing is counterbalanced by the risk of half the people in the state deciding "Screw this" and letting the team fade from consciousness. It's basically impossible for an NBA team to fail but they would not have a fun summer no matter who they get back.
Some would argue that's it's better to do this right now than go through another departure next year
As the the Wolf from Pulp Fiction would say....let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet.
Here comes Bulpett with the wet blanket:
Here comes Bulpett with the wet blanket:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/07/bulpett_sorting_through_celtics_trade_rumor_season
I'm not sure his salary would count if not signed.I do not believe Jaylen has signed his rookie contract so he could be included in a deal immediately. He also is not hiring an agent for his rookie deal so maybe he simply forgot.
I responded to you saying this
"does it really matter if the Brooklyn pick turns out to be a Hield type?"
Don't know what the secondly, thirdly, has to do with that.
The Brooklyn pick would be the key part to any Westbrook trade with Boston. If that ends up a Hield type, OKC didn't get enough.
You seem hung up on OKC trades with Boston, or lets Westbrook walk for nothing. It's nowhere close to only those two options.
If they trade him at the break the market will still be robust and the fans will have time to get used to the idea.
I'd hate to give up big resources for only a two-year commitment and all the agita that would produce. And the possibility of a Lakers heel turn would be real.
Well, my point still stands. Hield/Smart is better than nothing and I'm not convinced that your point that OKC could do better is correct.
His salary wouldn't count, which shouldn't matter much as filler could easily replace it, since he doesn't have a signed contract however his rights can be traded immediately without having to wait the 30-days like Cleveland was forced to do last year with Wiggins.
Who's arguing Hield/Smart isn't better than nothing? Boston is not the only option for OKC. If it was Bostons offer or nothing, why doesn't Boston just offer them Smart and Amir? That's also better than nothing too, right?
Why do you think Boston is the only team that would be willing to offer a package that light for a top ten player?
Where did I say that? I think Boston would be well-positioned to land him if he did become available. Other teams (Phx, Phi, LAL, for example) could match a Brooklyn pick/Smart package but I don't think they'd be as willing to take that leap of faith since they're all light years away from competing. The post up thread does a good job of summarizing the possibilities, imo.
Assuming amfox1's post is correct (and I have every reason to believe it is), the realistic potential trade partners for OKC are Boston, LAL and MIn.
The Sixers make no sense for a variety of reasons but mainly because its almost certain Westbrook would never agree to sign there long term (sorry London).
And I am not buying the Clips because they are already thin and trading Griffin for Westbrook creates some interesting line-up and usage problems with them. Westbrook had the sixth highest usage percentage while CP3 missed the top 20 in NBA usage percentage by a hair. And that assumes Griffin plus whatever would even work for OKC and its dubious it would.
With that, its down to the Lakers, the Celtics and the TWolves, all of whom can offer interesting packages. Of those, I would bet that OKC would be most interested in what Boston can offer in terms of near-term picks and NBA ready players unless Minnesota is prepared to give up someone like Wiggins in package (unlikely).
In short, with its picks and NBA talent, Boston is probably OKC's best trade partner. Its just a matter of whether they have enough to entice OKC to trade Westbrook now and also whether Boston can work a deal that guarantees that Westbrook won't bolt for LA next offseason (which would be pretty diabolical if he cleaned the C's out of assets only to run off to the Lakers after).
The Sixers make no sense for a variety of reasons but mainly because its almost certain Westbrook would never agree to sign there long term (sorry London).
And I am not buying the Clips because they are already thin and trading Griffin for Westbrook creates some interesting line-up and usage problems with them. Westbrook had the sixth highest usage percentage while CP3 missed the top 20 in NBA usage percentage by a hair. And that assumes Griffin plus whatever would even work for OKC and its dubious it would.
With that, its down to the Lakers, the Celtics and the TWolves, all of whom can offer interesting packages. Of those, I would bet that OKC would be most interested in what Boston can offer in terms of near-term picks and NBA ready players unless Minnesota is prepared to give up someone like Wiggins in package (unlikely).
In short, with its picks and NBA talent, Boston is probably OKC's best trade partner. Its just a matter of whether they have enough to entice OKC to trade Westbrook now and also whether Boston can work a deal that guarantees that Westbrook won't bolt for LA next offseason (which would be pretty diabolical if he cleaned the C's out of assets only to run off to the Lakers after).
MN's offer would be very good value, with controllable and affordable upside. But I have a hard time seeing the Wolves make that offer w/o a sign and trade. They can't give up Lavine and risk losing Westbrook after 1 year. They're not ready to contend for a title this season.
I disagree. They are my clear pick for a team that can surprise the West this season. With Westbrook and sans Levine/Wiggins and Rubio they are even more formidable.
But if I am the Wolves, I think hard about giving up a chunk of my young core (not talking Rubio) for Westbrook. As you note, they are still gelling and they may actually start to peak when the Clippers are all but aged out and the Warriors are starting to see Curry and Durant decline vs getting Westbrook but still having some big obstacles in front of them.
Fraymond is active on the glass, and can shoot. I like him, so will be curious to see if he makes the club this year or they stash him in France. If Ainge makes a consolidation trade that frees up some roster spots, I suspect he stays.
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