Celtics 16/17 Roster and Assets

[bowiac]

Blake Griffin is one of the 12-15 best players in the league. If you can get him, you get him and find another Jae Crowder elsewhere. That's not to say I'd include a BRK pick for him without some assurance he'd commit long term, but neither Crowder nor Bradley would give me any pause.

Blake Griffin is one of the 12-15 most talented players in the league. It's entirely unclear at this point how good he is however. It's probably not a complete coincidence that the Clippers didn't really seem to miss him all that much for instance.

I'd trade Crowder for him certainly, betting on Stevens to be smarter than Doc about usage, but there's some real risk that Griffin isn't well suited to the "modern NBA". I like his skillset, so again, I'm fine gambling that better usage will make him more effective, but it's a real risk all the same.

 

[oumbi]

Extra, extra...this just in. Unverified, but what the heck, so is much of what we have been citing.

Deadmik3™ ‏@StonewallSieve 9s9 seconds ago Watertown, MA
#Griffin to the #Celtics for Johnson, Bradley & the 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Details are being fine-tuned. Expect official announcement soon

 

[AMS25]

Royce Young is merely criticized for being a homer who was too emotional about Durant leaving. I don't think his reporting is considered inferior.

Royce's reporting is OK, if you're interested in knowing what the OKC organization is thinking. He admires Presti and the team culture, and I think he has lots of sources from within the organization. The players? Not so much. OKC is notorious for protecting the players from the press. There was a good piece in Grantland about how the OKC PR department micromanages the press.

 

[zenter]

Extra, extra...this just in. Unverified, but what the heck, so is much of what we have been citing.

Deadmik3™ ‏@StonewallSieve 9s9 seconds ago Watertown, MA
#Griffin to the #Celtics for Johnson, Bradley & the 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Details are being fine-tuned. Expect official announcement soon

Huh... If true... Between Crowder and AB, I'd have preferred Crowder going (despite wing concerns) because AB is one of the few decent 3-point shooters on this team.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Blake Griffin is one of the 12-15 most talented players in the league. It's entirely unclear at this point how good he is however. It's probably not a complete coincidence that the Clippers didn't really seem to miss him all that much for instance.

I'd trade Crowder for him certainly, betting on Stevens to be smarter than Doc about usage, but there's some real risk that Griffin isn't well suited to the "modern NBA". I like his skillset, so again, I'm fine gambling that better usage will make him more effective, but it's a real risk all the same.

Don't you think Griffin would be a better fit next to Horford than Jordan?

 

[zenter]

Don't you think Griffin would be a better fit next to Horford than Jordan?

Agreed. They're WAY more complementary and can play an all-big-man inside-outside game.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Extra, extra...this just in. Unverified, but what the heck, so is much of what we have been citing.

Deadmik3™ ‏@StonewallSieve 9s9 seconds ago Watertown, MA
#Griffin to the #Celtics for Johnson, Bradley & the 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Details are being fine-tuned. Expect official announcement soon

That guy has been throwing out fake deals as "close" for about 5 days, he's just trolling in the hope he gets something right and can claim he knew first.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

Blake Griffin is one of the 12-15 most talented players in the league. It's entirely unclear at this point how good he is however. It's probably not a complete coincidence that the Clippers didn't really seem to miss him all that much for instance.

I'd trade Crowder for him certainly, betting on Stevens to be smarter than Doc about usage, but there's some real risk that Griffin isn't well suited to the "modern NBA". I like his skillset, so again, I'm fine gambling that better usage will make him more effective, but it's a real risk all the same.

I don't disagree with that necessarily. I think Griffin is a very effective player, but what concerns me about him is that he's very dependent on the context of the team around him. He's a big man that doesn't shoot threes or protect the rim, which is the profile for a player that's quickly becoming irrelevant in the NBA. But, I think Griffin is so good at the other things he does - midrange jumpers, elite passing, lateral quickness on defense, even an ugly but effective post-up game - that he's still valuable as an elite player. Fortunately for Boston, Horford is great big to pair alongside him, and their other pieces complement his game pretty well. Simply pairing him with Horford instead of DJ should make him a lot more effective.

 

[bowiac]

Don't you think Griffin would be a better fit next to Horford than Jordan?

I do, and that's why I'd be thrilled to acquire Blake. But he also has some weaknesses in his game, since he's not a super versatile defender, and doesn't have three point range (yet). There's a case to be made that he's better suited at center for instance. Finding a fit for him is a project - he's not Westbrook or Durant, who you can just plug in and let the talent do the job.

 

[leetinsley38]

One interesting note - thanks to that draft day trade of 2 early second rounders, we have the Clippers 2019 first rounder (via Memphis). That didn't seem like great value at the time, but perhaps Danny was thinking a few moves ahead. Because of the Stepian Rule that pick holds a whole lot more value to Doc than anyone else.

 

[mikeot]

I would pay serious coin to watch Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook on the same team. They would obliterate the league record for Angry Glares At A Teammate and my over under for a locker room fight between the two would be a week into the regular season.

Just as long as the team isn't the C's.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'd prefer Griffin to Westbrook if the prices are close.
Griffin to me is close to the same level of player and significantly better fit.

He's a big man which we need, he is a strong rebounder (another need), he's an exceptional passer for a big man.
His rim protection isn't great, but pairing with Horford behind our likely wing defenders should still do well defensively.
He's an efficient offensive player who has improved over his career at his weaknesses (FT%, starting to add a 3), and he rarely turns it over.

Looking at him vs. Westbrook, he's maybe less dynamic, but he's a player who can be efficient in high usage within a team construct much easier than Westbrook. He's probably the better defender (Westbrook is low key a bad defender). Overall I'd prefer Griffin for this team.

 

[Auger34]

Huh... If true... Between Crowder and AB, I'd have preferred Crowder going (despite wing concerns) because AB is one of the few decent 3-point shooters on this team.

Very true about the shooting thing but I think with the current roster it's easier to replace AB than Jae. Rozier and Smart (hell, maybe even Hunter) can play the 2 whereas only Smart can play the 3 (maybe Jaylen Brown depending on development)

 

[zenter]

Very true about the shooting thing but I think with the current roster it's easier to replace AB than Jae. Rozier and Smart (hell, maybe even Hunter) can play the 2 whereas only Smart can play the 3 (maybe Jaylen Brown depending on development)

This is the classic positional need vs skills need debate. I feel like this particular skill is more important than this particular position, but I can easily be convinced otherwise.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Huh... If true... Between Crowder and AB, I'd have preferred Crowder going (despite wing concerns) because AB is one of the few decent 3-point shooters on this team.

I expect Bradley to be the first guy Ainge ships out in any deal as his massive extension comes due before Crowder, before Smart and Rozier, and at same time as Isaiah however Isaiah is an indispensable part right now. Rozier's rise since January makes Bradley more expendable than Crowder at this time.

Otoh, there is still plenty of time to reshape the roster with FA like Harkless and Budinger available for minutes at the 3. Budinger could be a good fit should Bradley be moved to add SF depth with Jerebko at the 3 as a spot-up shooter which will be crucial for spacing with Blake being your go-to iso guy. I still feel Jaylen is included in this type of deal but even so he doesn't figure to be a factor in a win-now season.

 

[cheech13]

Bradley and Crower are assets because they come cheap and they can provide productive minutes in almost any offensive or defensive scheme. There is a demand for talent like that, but we are still talking about role players. If that's the cost to get a top 12 talent, you do it everyday of the week and figure the rest out later.

 

[chilidawg]

Extra, extra...this just in. Unverified, but what the heck, so is much of what we have been citing.

Deadmik3™ ‏@StonewallSieve 9s9 seconds ago Watertown, MA
#Griffin to the #Celtics for Johnson, Bradley & the 2018 Brooklyn Nets pick. Details are being fine-tuned. Expect official announcement soon

Called it!

 

[E5 Yaz]

Called it!

You called something that hasn't happened? ... Huzzah!!!

 

[DJnVa]

Any idea why Blake's shooting numbers have fallen the last few seasons?

Eliminating the threes, his 2PT% has gone .556, .548, .537, down to .504 the last 2 seasons. Not watching the Clips enough to know if there's some fundamental reason behind this.

I do like that his FT% has gone from 61% in his first 3 seasons to 72% the last three.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Any idea why Blake's shooting numbers have fallen the last few seasons?

Eliminating the threes, his 2PT% has gone .556, .548, .537, down to .504 the last 2 seasons. Not watching the Clips enough to know if there's some fundamental reason behind this.

I do like that his FT% has gone from 61% in his first 3 seasons to 72% the last three.

Less dunks, many more jumpers, particularly long 2s as he needed to help stretch the floor.

Edit- to clarify...
2011- 28.2% of shots outside 10 feet, 46.3% inside 3 feet
2012- 32.3% of shots outside 10 feet, 37.8% inside 3 feet
2013- 34.3% of shots outside 10 feet, 40.7% inside 3 feet
2014- 46% of shots outside 10 feet, 32.8% inside 3 feet
2015- 52.8% of shots outside 10 feet, 29.2% inside 3 feet

 

[wutang112878]

If this happens and I'm our opponent, I instantly go to small ball for probably the entire 4th quarter and get Horford off the phone. Sure this issue is there for every team with a good PF and C, but we will have just spent a great deal of our resources to get these guys and one of them can pretty quickly be neutralized.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, Horford shouldn't be on the phone in the 4th quarter.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

If this happens and I'm our opponent, I instantly go to small ball for probably the entire 4th quarter and get Horford off the phone. Sure this issue is there for every team with a good PF and C, but we will have just spent a great deal of our resources to get these guys and one of them can pretty quickly be neutralized.

Could Blake play passable team defense vs a 3? Because if he could, I'd be willing to take the interior dominance of Blake and Horford for the 4th quarter over worrying about someone going small. Blake can hold up in transition, it's just a matter of being able to stay with a smaller guy on the perimeter (who may primarily be a 3 pt specialist camping out in a corner). Someone like Frye or Jefferson for CLE, maybe an Igoudala from GS, for example. How many teams are going to be able to really take advantage of going small for an entire quarter?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Very few teams can go small effectively enough to force a Horford off the floor.
GS maybe.. and then....

You put Horford on the putative C, and Blake on the worse of the wings, how many teams have multiple wings who can score at a high level and are such good athletes that they are going to make a pretty good defender like Blake unplayable? Beyond that you could play zone against most teams to alleviate any quickness concerns.

You'd also just punish the shit out of them when you have the ball because there are very very few SF who can even put up a respectable defense of either Blake Griffin or Al Horford.

People overrate the ability of smallball to force lineup changes, especially when both of a team's big men are excellent. GS can do it because they have a freakish lineup where every single guy can score and they have great wing defenders. Even then certain teams punished them inside (including LAC with Griffin at PF).

 

[bowiac]

I am told a "facemelter" trade is incoming. I do not know if the Celtics are involved (nor am I quite sure what a facemelter is), but I'm putting this here all the same.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Could Blake play passable team defense vs a 3? Because if he could, I'd be willing to take the interior dominance of Blake and Horford for the 4th quarter over worrying about someone going small. Blake can hold up in transition, it's just a matter of being able to stay with a smaller guy on the perimeter (who may primarily be a 3 pt specialist camping out in a corner). Someone like Frye or Jefferson for CLE, maybe an Igoudala from GS, for example. How many teams are going to be able to really take advantage of going small for an entire quarter?

Right. I mean, the Warriors can go small because they have the ridiculously talented players to do it, but I can't really think of another team's small offensive line-up that would worry me to the point where I wouldn't take the trade off on the other end.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I am told a "facemelter" trade is incoming. I do not know if the Celtics are involved (nor am I quite sure what a facemelter is), but I'm putting this here all the same.

Well that's exciting.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

If this happens and I'm our opponent, I instantly go to small ball for probably the entire 4th quarter and get Horford off the phone. Sure this issue is there for every team with a good PF and C, but we will have just spent a great deal of our resources to get these guys and one of them can pretty quickly be neutralized.

Horford swings between the 4/5 and Blake can defend the 3/4. I don't see how going small would do anything other than give us matchup advantages on the other end with Blake in iso.

One of the primary reasons to acquire top tier talent is that it forces the opponent to play a certain way to slow them down. By having the better more versatile players we are able to dictate matchups much better than the opposition.

 

[luckiestman]

If this happens and I'm our opponent, I instantly go to small ball for probably the entire 4th quarter and get Horford off the phone. Sure this issue is there for every team with a good PF and C, but we will have just spent a great deal of our resources to get these guys and one of them can pretty quickly be neutralized.

This doesnt make sense to me at all.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I am told a "facemelter" trade is incoming. I do not know if the Celtics are involved (nor am I quite sure what a facemelter is), but I'm putting this here all the same.

Source?

 

[bowiac]

Source?

Stats guy at a team. Not someone I've gotten info from before, so I can't swear by it. Should be out soon if it's real (full quote was "Not sure how Woj hasn't caught wind, but possible facemelter incoming").

 

[BigSoxFan]

Stats guy at a team. Not someone I've gotten info from before, so I can't swear by it. Should be out soon if it's real (full quote was "Not sure how Woj hasn't caught wind, but possible facemelter incoming").

Gotcha, thanks. Hard to imagine the Celtics wouldn't be involved if a big deal was coming soon. Lots of smoke here.

 

[BoSoxFink]

I am told a "facemelter" trade is incoming. I do not know if the Celtics are involved (nor am I quite sure what a facemelter is), but I'm putting this here all the same.

But I like my face.......

 

[bosockboy]

A facemelter would be dumping the whole war chest of assets for Griffin and Westbrook.

 

[bowiac]

Nope. Not happening. Nothing to see here... (So much for that source).

 

[ifmanis5]

 

[BoSoxFink]

Nope. Not happening. Nothing to see here... (So much for that source).

Like no trade at all is happening? Or the facemelter crap isn't happening?

 

[DJnVa]

Maybe he meant facehugger.

 

[wutang112878]

Could Blake play passable team defense vs a 3?

I havent watched the Clippers to really intelligently tell you, but according to Basketball Reference, Griffin hasnt played any significant minutes at the 3

How many teams are going to be able to really take advantage of going small for an entire quarter?

Very few teams can go small effectively enough to force a Horford off the floor.

Well, lets just look at the top teams because its really the playoffs when things change from checkers to chess. GS and Cleveland with Lebron can obviously go small. San Antonio's #2 lineup of Aldridge, Green, Leonard, Parker and West were a net +4.2 points over 185 minutes last year. OKC obviously not the same team but... they pretty much always had Adams and Ibaka on the court, Ibaka stretched the floor the past 2 years and he is pretty quick. Miami's #2 lineup was Deng, Dragic, Joe Johnson, Amare and Wade which was a +8.7 points over 196 minutes. The Hawks absolutely played this way against us. We also absolutely played that way against the Hawks and it wasnt always reacting to them, but initiating it ourselves. Portland's #2 lineup of Aminu, Harkless, Lillard, McCollum and Plumlee were a +14.4 over 290 minutes

Obviously the landscape of the NBA has changed but based on last year, but that is 8 of the top 10 teams in wins last year. Now sure, maybe they cant play an entire quarter like that, but I do think they could play 4-5 minutes stretches at either crucial times or when they want to close out a game.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I havent watched the Clippers to really intelligently tell you, but according to Basketball Reference, Griffin hasnt played any significant minutes at the 3

Why would Griffin ever "officially" play the 3? That would have required a frontcourt of Blake, DeAndre, and probably Cole Adrich which is never going to happen. Blake defended traditional 3's either when opponents went small, he defended Durant fine in these spots, or on high screen switches which are common during most halfcourt sets.

It is a great advantage to Griffin when a team going small against him as that 3 isn't likely to be able to handle him on the low block while Blake is very good moving his feet and can defend wings on the perimeter.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I havent watched the Clippers to really intelligently tell you, but according to Basketball Reference, Griffin hasnt played any significant minutes at the 3





Well, lets just look at the top teams because its really the playoffs when things change from checkers to chess. GS and Cleveland with Lebron can obviously go small. San Antonio's #2 lineup of Aldridge, Green, Leonard, Parker and West were a net +4.2 points over 185 minutes last year. OKC obviously not the same team but... they pretty much always had Adams and Ibaka on the court, Ibaka stretched the floor the past 2 years and he is pretty quick. Miami's #2 lineup was Deng, Dragic, Joe Johnson, Amare and Wade which was a +8.7 points over 196 minutes. The Hawks absolutely played this way against us. We also absolutely played that way against the Hawks and it wasnt always reacting to them, but initiating it ourselves. Portland's #2 lineup of Aminu, Harkless, Lillard, McCollum and Plumlee were a +14.4 over 290 minutes

Obviously the landscape of the NBA has changed but based on last year, but that is 8 of the top 10 teams in wins last year. Now sure, maybe they cant play an entire quarter like that, but I do think they could play 4-5 minutes stretches at either crucial times or when they want to close out a game.

Smallball is all about matchups though, putting out the overall +/- of a unit over the whole year is useless to how it will play against a different particular lineup.

Beyond that I wouldn't call half of those lineups small. SA is playing 2 PF in that lineup, Horford on Aldridge, Blake on David West is not any mismatch.

OKC obviously a 2 big lineup, not smallball, in fact the way OKC tried and for the most part did counter the GSW smallball lineup was going huge (Adams, Ibaka, Durant, Roberson, Westbrook).

The Hawks mostly played big against us with Millsap and Horford because they had a huge FC advantage, it's one reason they stomped us all year.

 

[bowiac]

Like no trade at all is happening? Or the facemelter crap isn't happening?

Whatever trade he was teasing isn't happening. Said he misinterpreted something.

 

[djbayko]

I am told a "facemelter" trade is incoming. I do not know if the Celtics are involved (nor am I quite sure what a facemelter is), but I'm putting this here all the same.

Young people use it to mean that they were in the presence of something so amazing and incredibly awesome that it, like, "literally" melted their face off. I've mostly seen it used in the context of concert performances. The usage here is a bit odd, but I guess it works.

 

[kelpapa]

Whatever trade he was teasing isn't happening. Said he misinterpreted something.

Come on, man. I already went to Twitter with this info.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Doesn't the modern use of "facemelter" date to "Raiders"?

 

[djbayko]

Doesn't the modern use of "facemelter" date to "Raiders"?

I don't think that's where the millennials got it from, but I honestly can't be certain. I mean, sure, that image is invoked in my mind...but I'm 39. I think it has more to do with the way people feel and/or the contortions their faces make when witnessing a god-like performance...especially if on drugs.

Edit: If you're saying that this same concert-specific usage has been around for longer than this most recent generation, and it's experiencing a resurgence, then maybe you're right. I'd never heard it until recently.

 

[Sprowl]

Doesn't the modern use of "facemelter" date to "Raiders"?

I'd look a little further back to Peter Gabriel.

 

[zenter]

I'd look a little further back to Peter Gabriel.

That was the first thing I thought of. Got Games Without Frontiers stuck in my head.

 

[reggiecleveland]

To Say Grifin fits better with Horford than Jordan, has to be a qualified at the offensive end. Jordan is monster defender and rebounder so he fits better at the defensive end with just about anybody, but is limited on offense, even though he finishes well.

 

[wutang112878]

Smallball is all about matchups though, putting out the overall +/- of a unit over the whole year is useless to how it will play against a different particular lineup.

Beyond that I wouldn't call half of those lineups small. SA is playing 2 PF in that lineup, Horford on Aldridge, Blake on David West is not any mismatch.

OKC obviously a 2 big lineup, not smallball, in fact the way OKC tried and for the most part did counter the GSW smallball lineup was going huge (Adams, Ibaka, Durant, Roberson, Westbrook).

The Hawks mostly played big against us with Millsap and Horford because they had a huge FC advantage, it's one reason they stomped us all year.

I was citing the +/- just to point out that the lineup wasnt completely ineffective, I'm with you its really about matchups.

As for SA, granted its a little untraditional, but I think thats a tough matchup for Horford because Aldridge can stretch the court not with 3s but with long 2s. On OKC, we can call Ibaka a PF, but I think he has turned into a big SF because he shoots so much from the outside (45% of shots >10ft) and he isnt really a rebounding force (he was 7th in both def rebounding % and total rebounding %). I see what you mean about Atlanta, but while Millsap and Horford are traditional PF/C types, the Millsap, Bazemore, Korver combo was brutal to defend from 3 and absolutely shredded our defense when they hit some 3s which would be exacerbated with Horford/Griffin on the court. So maybe they are a traditional lineup that effectively plays small.