Celtics 20-21 Roster Construction

PedroKsBambino

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That’s certainly a guy who was on none of our radars as a possible addition.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was wondering how a 10 day contract would work with a full roster, apparently it's not a 10 day contract, it's an exhibit 10 deal.
 

PedroKsBambino

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This helps clarify a bit the overall roster thinking—they are viewing it as a 17 man roster essentially. Which creates a bit of pressure on practice time and takes away the g league as additional chance to own/develop guys. The lack of development chances makes additional 2nd round picks less useful this year

I still think an additional wing makes sense even with that (acknowledging they may believe more in Green), but having (for example) Waters available while Kemba is out is helpful depth.
 

the moops

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I haven't lived in Boston in 15 years. Has Gary Tanguay always been this, ummm, ridiculous?
https://www.radio.com/weei/sports/celtics/tanguay-hey-celtics-make-the-deal-for-james-harden?fbclid=IwAR03dH6Q6K3scOOUbWZ4tFi_mHi00BvR7lYrzNLTM6FzgxibE4HSZiZar7k
Houston sends James Harden to the Boston Celtics for Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford and whatever picks or minor details you need to make this thing pass the NBA salary fire wall.

Right now, your Celtics are the fourth best team in the Eastern Conference ... at best. Miami, Milwaukee and Philly are all better than the Celtics. Yes, Philly, Doc will get much more out of the Sixers than Brett Brown.

Back to my take ... and oh yeah, Russell Westbrook is in Washington with Bradley Beal, so maybe the Celtics are the fifth-best team in the East.

The window for Tatum, Kemba and Brown has closed.
 

BaseballJones

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That's so so so dumb. Objectively speaking, Tatum is a burgeoning mega-star who is on the cusp of becoming a top-5 player in the NBA. He might not be there yet, but he's close. And he will turn just 23 in March - 4 years younger than guys like Jordan and LeBron were when they won their first championships. Brown is not a top-5 player, but he's on the cusp of being an all-star. A very very very good #2 player on a very good team. These are the kind of guys you build around. These are the guys who make for championship teams. They might never win it all - lots of great players don't ever win an NBA title (Barkley, Ewing, Malone, Stockton, Mullin, Drexler, Gervin, etc.) so it wouldn't shock me if Tatum never does. But my god to suggest that the window has closed? It's barely begun to slide OPEN.
 

lovegtm

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Literally this exact roster probably makes the Finals if they have TT to deal with Bam. That's without development from Tatum, Brown, or any of the 1st rounders (need a catchy name for this recent bunch).
 

NomarsFool

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It makes the Finals last year - but the road to the Finals this year will be more challenging.
 

NomarsFool

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Isn't Milwaukee better this year? The Sixers? Brooklyn is clearly better. Toronto is probably more the same. Miami probably the same.
 

BigSoxFan

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Isn't Milwaukee better this year? The Sixers? Brooklyn is clearly better. Toronto is probably more the same. Miami probably the same.
Milwaukee went 56-17 last year. They're not beating that this year. The Sixers seem about the same to me except with a different coach. Maybe Doc will squeeze out more there. I think Miami will build off their playoffs and be better than the regular season version we saw last year, primarily due to the growth of Herro and Bam.
 

Jimbodandy

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Milwaukee went 56-17 last year. They're not beating that this year. The Sixers seem about the same to me except with a different coach. Maybe Doc will squeeze out more there. I think Miami will build off their playoffs and be better than the regular season version we saw last year, primarily due to the growth of Herro and Bam.
Doc may have lost a few miles off his fastball too. I know that external factors hurt his team, but they sure as shit underperformed last year.
 

Euclis20

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Isn't Milwaukee better this year? The Sixers? Brooklyn is clearly better. Toronto is probably more the same. Miami probably the same.
A lot of this is up in air. Holiday over Bledsoe is a slight upgrade on paper, but if Giannis doesn't sign his extension the pressure on the Bucks will be enormous, and they haven't appeared capable of breaking through that. The Sixers have had a ton of turnover and injuries, who knows. The Nets should be better, but it all depends on 6'10 32 year old's achilles. Not a great track record of that, and the Nets need both Kyrie (hasn't been able to finish 3 of the last 6 seasons) and Durant to be 100% to be a finals contender. Toronto is undoubtedly worse - Lowry is a year older, and they replaced Gasol/Ibaka with Baynes/Len. Maybe Siakam takes a leap, but otherwise they will be worse.
 

OurF'ingCity

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It's simply way too early to say anything about who will be good or bad in the East this year (well, more than broad strokes anyway - the Knicks are still going to suck). But to suggest as Tanguay did that the Wizards are better than the Celtics as currently constructed is ludicrous.

And as we've seen time and time again the notion of what team is "better" in terms of what their regular-season record will be is only marginally relevant. As long as you get a top-4ish seed - and the Heat did it as a 5 seed - make some key acquisitions/get lucky on health/peak at the right time/matchup well, whether a team is "better" in the regular-season sense of that word is irrelevant. The Heat were not "better" than the Celtics and definitely not "better" than the Bucks and yet dominated those two teams when the games really mattered. Same thing with the Clips vs. Denver, etc.
 

lexrageorge

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Isn't Milwaukee better this year? The Sixers? Brooklyn is clearly better. Toronto is probably more the same. Miami probably the same.
I think it's fair to say that the Bucks remain the favorites in the Eastern Conference; they seemed to have been hurt inordinately by the bubble situation, which will not be repeated. Whether they can succeed in the playoffs, however, remains to the seem.

I think the Celtics, Sixers, Raptors, Nets, and Heat are all in the scrum for the #2 team. The Celtics are relying on two young players still in the accelerating part of their respective growth curves, and do have room for organic growth from other players on their roster. Probably the only other team that can say that is Miami and possibly Toronto, although I think the playoffs showed the Raptors' ceiling.

As for the other teams:

The Nets will happily sacrifice regular season wins for health during the playoffs, but I think there are several teams in the East that can expose an aging and oft-injured Kyrie, including Boston.

Sixers are the most unpredictable right now, IMO.

The Wizards are at best the #6 team, and could just as easily trail the Pacers. Are there any other teams that are threats to finish in the top 8?
 
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lovegtm

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I think it's fair to say that the Bucks remain the favorites in the Eastern Conference; they seemed to have been hurt inordinately by the bubble situation, which will not be repeated. Whether they can succeed in the playoffs, however, remains to the seem.

I think the Celtics, Sixers, Raptors, Nets, and Heat are all in the scrum for the #2 team. The Celtics are relying on two young players still in the accelerating part of their respective growth curves, and do have room for organic growth from other players on their roster. Probably the only other team that can say that is Miami and possibly Toronto, although I think the playoffs showed the Raptors' ceiling.

As for the other teams:

The Nets will happily sacrifice regular season wins for health during the playoffs, but I think there are several teams in the East that can expose an aging and oft-injured Kyrie, including Boston.

Sixers are the most unpredictable right now, IMO.

The Wizards are at best the #6 team, and could just as easily trail the Pacers. Are there any other teams that are threats to finish in the top 8?
Wrt the Bucks: I think it’s pretty clear at this point that we have to down-weight their regular season performances come playoff time.

We have a lot of evidence now that beating Orlando and Atlanta by 35 in January means basically nothing in the postseason.

Giannis is a great player, and they absolutely could have won the Finals either of the past two years. But the “historically great” bullshit people were spouting based on their bumhunting point differential has turned out to be just that: bullshit.
 

CreedBratton

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A lot of this is up in air. Holiday over Bledsoe is a slight upgrade on paper, but if Giannis doesn't sign his extension the pressure on the Bucks will be enormous, and they haven't appeared capable of breaking through that. The Sixers have had a ton of turnover and injuries, who knows. The Nets should be better, but it all depends on 6'10 32 year old's achilles. Not a great track record of that, and the Nets need both Kyrie (hasn't been able to finish 3 of the last 6 seasons) and Durant to be 100% to be a finals contender. Toronto is undoubtedly worse - Lowry is a year older, and they replaced Gasol/Ibaka with Baynes/Len. Maybe Siakam takes a leap, but otherwise they will be worse.
I would say Jrue is somewhere between 100 and 1000X the upgrade on Bledsoe. The Bucks got tremendously better. On both ends of the floor too. People are underestimating how much better they are With Jrue then whatever Eric Bledsoe does on a basketball court these days.

They are very much beatable in the playoffs tho until they prove otherwise.
 

Euclis20

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I would say Jrue is somewhere between 100 and 1000X the upgrade on Bledsoe. The Bucks got tremendously better. On both ends of the floor too. People are underestimating how much better they are With Jrue then whatever Eric Bledsoe does on a basketball court these days.

They are very much beatable in the playoffs tho until they prove otherwise.
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There's a bit more to it than per 36 minute stats (Bledsoe also had the edge in essentially all of the advanced stats last year), but any argument that has Holiday as being exponentially better than Bledsoe starts and ends with playoff performance. I'm definitely partial to that argument after seeing Bledsoe vomit all over himself the last few years when the games actually counted, but Holiday is too much of a blank slate for me to give him a huge edge. Holiday was indeed excellent in the 2018 playoffs (24/6/6 in 9 games), but that's the only playoff appearance he's made in the last 5 years.

Bledsoe and Holiday have had remarkably similar careers. Holiday has played slightly more minutes, Bledsoe has been slightly better on a rate basis. They are both big point guards who've made two all defense teams, they debuted one year apart and they've spent their entire careers somewhere between slightly above average and sub all star level. I get that that was the Bucks big move to convince Giannis to stay, but at least up until the playoffs start, there is no evidence at all that this is any more than an incremental improvement.
 
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chilidawg

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View attachment 36973

There's a bit more to it than per 36 minute stats (Bledsoe also had the edge in essentially all of the advanced stats last year), but any argument that has Holiday as being exponentially better than Bledsoe starts and ends with playoff performance. I'm definitely partial to that argument after seeing Bledsoe vomit all over himself the last few years when the games actually counted, but Holiday is too much of a blank slate for me to give him a huge edge. Holiday was indeed excellent in the 2018 playoffs (24/6/6 in 9 games), but that's the only playoff appearance he's made in the last 5 years.

Bledsoe and Holiday have had remarkably similar careers. Holiday has played slightly more minutes, Bledsoe has been slightly better on a rate basis. They are both big point guards who've made two all defense teams, they debuted one year apart and they've spent their entire careers somewhere between slightly above average and sub all star level. I get that that was the Bucks big move to convince Giannis to stay, but at least up until the playoffs start, there is no evidence at all that this is any more than an incremental improvement.
Great post, nice to see someone make an actual case for their take.
 

chilidawg

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Hollinger with a preview on the 20-21 Celtics. Not a big fan of the Teague or Thompson signings:

"The Celtics still have their biannual exception left over, and a couple of good guards remain unsigned (Shabazz Napier most notably), but Boston oddly signed the declining Teague instead. Walker’s knee issues only magnify this decision."

"While Thompson’s defensive switchability could have some playoff utility, he’s not quite as a light on his feet as he was in his 2016 Finals heyday, and his lack of offensive spark is a problem.

Boston was already in halfway decent shape at center with Daniel Theis and Robert Williams, and the opportunity cost of Thompson is that the backup perimeter slots will be manned by rookies and fringe players. Recent first-rounders Pritchard, Nesmith, Romeo Langford and Grant Williams will need to produce."

https://theathletic.com/2245602/2020/12/12/hollinger-2020-21-celtics-preview-boston-what-to-do-trade-exception/
 

NomarsFool

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As has been mentioned in numerous places, this is the make or break year for TimeLord, more or less. In the most optimistic scenario, TL has a killer first half of the season and allows the Celtics to trade Theis for something at the deadline. Nothing against Theis at all, he's been a great value, but I think the chances of him re-signing next summer are slight. While the 5 market is still fairly depressed, I'd think he could get something similar to TT - which I don't think the Celtics can afford.
 

128

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Hollinger with a preview on the 20-21 Celtics. Not a big fan of the Teague or Thompson signings:

"The Celtics still have their biannual exception left over, and a couple of good guards remain unsigned (Shabazz Napier most notably), but Boston oddly signed the declining Teague instead. Walker’s knee issues only magnify this decision."

"While Thompson’s defensive switchability could have some playoff utility, he’s not quite as a light on his feet as he was in his 2016 Finals heyday, and his lack of offensive spark is a problem.

Boston was already in halfway decent shape at center with Daniel Theis and Robert Williams, and the opportunity cost of Thompson is that the backup perimeter slots will be manned by rookies and fringe players. Recent first-rounders Pritchard, Nesmith, Romeo Langford and Grant Williams will need to produce."

https://theathletic.com/2245602/2020/12/12/hollinger-2020-21-celtics-preview-boston-what-to-do-trade-exception/
Hollinger has already pissed in the punch bowl on the C's free-agent signings. Time will tell.
 

128

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As has been mentioned in numerous places, this is the make or break year for TimeLord, more or less. In the most optimistic scenario, TL has a killer first half of the season and allows the Celtics to trade Theis for something at the deadline. Nothing against Theis at all, he's been a great value, but I think the chances of him re-signing next summer are slight. While the 5 market is still fairly depressed, I'd think he could get something similar to TT - which I don't think the Celtics can afford.
That's my dream scenario, too, because if Time Lord is playing well enough for the C's to part with Theis, then he's probably become a monster.
 

nighthob

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As has been mentioned in numerous places, this is the make or break year for TimeLord, more or less. In the most optimistic scenario, TL has a killer first half of the season and allows the Celtics to trade Theis for something at the deadline. Nothing against Theis at all, he's been a great value, but I think the chances of him re-signing next summer are slight. While the 5 market is still fairly depressed, I'd think he could get something similar to TT - which I don't think the Celtics can afford.
I take the opposite tack, I think that due to youth and athleticism that Time Lord gets an over-MLE deal when he finally hits free agency, whereas I'm not sure Theis does. I do think it likely that Theis gets in to the neighborhood of the MLE (say something like 3/25). But if Williams shows real promise on the court he's more likely to get Smart money. So I'd be all for cashing him in for more picks at the trade deadline.
 

PedroKsBambino

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JaMychal Green feels like a reasonable FA comp for Theis and he just got 2/$14.5 mil. So I agree he's likely near the MLE number.

Celts have Bird Rights on him, so it's more a luxury tax question than anything else
 

Jimbodandy

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I can see not liking Thompson as the choice of big, but saying that Boston was "already in halfway decent shape at center" seems to imply that a big rotation of Theis, TL, and Tacko is "halfway decent" depth.

Before signing TT, they were a Theis hammy pull from a 6'6" second year player possibly logging 30+ minutes a game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I can see not liking Thompson as the choice of big, but saying that Boston was "already in halfway decent shape at center" seems to imply that a big rotation of Theis, TL, and Tacko is "halfway decent" depth.

Before signing TT, they were a Theis hammy pull from a 6'6" second year player possibly logging 30+ minutes a game.
I would bet on that 6'6" playing 30+ minutes a game here and there regardless of whether someone pulls a hammy given the Cs adjustment patterns. Theis and Robert Williams with another street big would have been fine if not ideal. The Cs bigs averaged around ~40 mpg with Theis taking 60% of those minutes. They are likely to adjust that given Thompson's presence but they could have given most of Kanters minutes to Granite/etc with street FA big absorbing the balance.

In the end, its really a marginal impact but the idea that the Cs major deficiency was big depth just doesn't square with how the game is played right now or the data from the Miami series where people seem to be confident that Thompson would have made a difference. You are literally worrying about a player who might play ~15mpg, some games not at all due to matchups and almost certainly wont be playing in the majority of crunch time minutes.
 

Jimbodandy

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I would bet on that 6'6" playing 30+ minutes a game here and there regardless of whether someone pulls a hammy given the Cs adjustment patterns. Theis and Robert Williams with another street big would have been fine if not ideal. The Cs bigs averaged around ~40 mpg with Theis taking 60% of those minutes. They are likely to adjust that given Thompson's presence but they could have given most of Kanters minutes to Granite/etc with street FA big absorbing the balance.

In the end, its really a marginal impact but the idea that the Cs major deficiency was big depth just doesn't square with how the game is played right now or the data from the Miami series where people seem to be confident that Thompson would have made a difference. You are literally worrying about a player who might play ~15mpg, some games not at all due to matchups and almost certainly wont be playing in the majority of crunch time minutes.
I like your optimism, but Tacko is nothing, and we have no idea what TL is and how often he's going be in the training room.

Having tall guys matters. In the post that you quoted, I said that I understand being sour that Thompson is that tall guy. But the idea that Tacko and Timelord are appropriate tall guy depth seems ridiculous.

Sure street big is fine. Have no issue with that.
 

TripleOT

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Interesting to see Javonte Green as a starter in the first pre-season game, especially when he perfectly executed a catch and shoot three early. I

If that was a sign that he has improved his long distance shooting to an acceptable level, he could be a nice stop gap until Kemba gets back.

A line up of JT, JB, Smart, Theis, and Green could really jump on teams early at both ends of the floor. Total switchability on defense, and a ton of speed to run the floor when the defense makes something happen. Seven minutes of quality play from JG each half would really be big, for they would be able to better ease Nesmith into the rotation.
 

lovegtm

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Interesting to see Javonte Green as a starter in the first pre-season game, especially when he perfectly executed a catch and shoot three early. I

If that was a sign that he has improved his long distance shooting to an acceptable level, he could be a nice stop gap until Kemba gets back.

A line up of JT, JB, Smart, Theis, and Green could really jump on teams early at both ends of the floor. Total switchability on defense, and a ton of speed to run the floor when the defense makes something happen. Seven minutes of quality play from JG each half would really be big, for they would be able to better ease Nesmith into the rotation.
Part of me would prefer to just play Nesmith with the starters and let him figure it out on D, even if it gets ugly. It's such a better situation for him when he can be spacing the floor with good looks rather than being a higher priority option on offense.
 

TripleOT

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Part of me would prefer to just play Nesmith with the starters and let him figure it out on D, even if it gets ugly. It's such a better situation for him when he can be spacing the floor with good looks rather than being a higher priority option on offense.
It is, but on a second unit with one of the Jays on the floor, Teague, and TT, he will get good looks, and won’t have to defend against starters Unlike previous years, the second unit should have some stability and veteran leadership

If Nesmith can do a Tatum and jump right in to the starting line up, that would be amazing, bit if he’s not ready, having Green as a capable stopgap would be huge.
 

Jimbodandy

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Still seems to be a little smoke here. Celtics don’t have the assets to get Harden without Jaylen or Tatum so curious about the 3 or 4 team angle.
Can only speculate that it involves Kemba going to a team with space to take him and assets to send to Houston. Actually it's more wishcasting than speculation, but it's the only way to not have a J or Smarf in the deal.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Gotta figure it involves Kemba to the Knicks and Smart to Houston to make the money work.

Is new management in NY dumb enough to take Kemba?
 

BigSoxFan

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Can only speculate that it involves Kemba going to a team with space to take him and assets to send to Houston. Actually it's more wishcasting than speculation, but it's the only way to not have a J or Smarf in the deal.
Yeah, I’m sure Ainge is not offering up Jaylen at this point but the Celtics would have to give additional assets to get someone to take a hurt Kemba so not sure how that would work. Maybe it’s finding a landing spot for Smart since the Celtics wouldn’t be able to afford the Jay’s, Harden, and Smart long-term. And then the Smart return would go to Houston along with other assets/picks. But that seems like a bad return for Houston so who knows.
 

slamminsammya

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Harden is a great player but I am not sue it makes sense given Tatum's window to trade Harden for Brown straight up. I know that's crazy and probably just because I like Jaylen as a person so much and so dislike Harden's ethos on the court. I will be very interested to see what Houston gets for Harden.