Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

amfox1

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Tuesday's results:

MIA wins (BOS is tied for 5th with CHA, 1.0 GB of ATL & MIA)
(Seeding scenarios (4th-6th seed only) are laid out in post #747; BOS's pick will be between ##21-24)

MEM loses (DAL is tied with MEM for 6th/7th seed, 1.0 GB of POR (and 1.0 GB of DET))
(DAL has clinched a playoff spot - the DAL draft pick will be between ##16-19)

BRK & PHX did not play (BRK is 1.0 GA of PHX for the #3 pre-lottery slot - BRK plays TOR; PHX plays LAC)
(A BRK loss or PHX win would clinch the #3 pre-lottery spot for the BRK draft pick; otherwise, they would be tied for #3/#4)

Wednesday's games:

MIA@BOS
ATL@WAS
ORL@CHA

MEM@GS
SA@DAL
DEN@POR
DET@CLE

TOR@BRK
LAC@PHX
(end of regular season)
 
DJnVa

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HomeRunBaker said:
I know you used him as only an example but Biyombo is going to get paid big bucks this summer probably in the $10-12m per year range. Same with the Evan Turners. These guys are no longer cheap......Tyler Zeller will be cheap in the $5m range but that isn't getting the Nets any more wins much less to 35.
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I think that's his point. Biyombo is going to get paid, but he's just flawed enough that a decent or better team will not want to tie up that much money in him, however a crap team like Brooklyn may very well do so. Biyombo will likely have to choose between getting more $$$ for a crap team and a little less if he wants to play for a contender.
 
nighthob

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I think you're missing HRB's point though, Brooklyn isn't the only crap team that will be looking for those guys. There will be a lot of GMs bidding on those players now, and they won't be sitting on dumpster fires quite as large as Brooklyn's. I agree that Marks' goal will be to sign the Evan Turners of the NBA, and he may well do so. But thanks to the cap expanding by $20 million this summer the Nets position isn't quite so straightforward.
 
ishmael

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HomeRunBaker said:
I know you used him as only an example but Biyombo is going to get paid big bucks this summer probably in the $10-12m per year range. Same with the Evan Turners. These guys are no longer cheap......Tyler Zeller will be cheap in the $5m range but that isn't getting the Nets any more wins much less to 35.

This is a GREAT time for us to have the swapping of picks with the Nets due to so many more attractive options having cap space. If this is the best they can do they will be right back here battling in the bottom-5 again a year from now. Marks has no outs.
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You also have to think that he'll go for guys younger than Evan, who maybe haven't reached their upside (th
fenwaypa'k said:
This. It seems reasonable to expect that PHI, LAL, PHO, and MIN will all improve, just based on the growth of the young players on their rosters. And there isn't an obvious candidate for another team to fall to the bottom of the barrel, absent an injury to a star player. BKN's roster isn't blessed with the same growth potential, and they got pretty lucky health-wise with Brook Lopez this year. Every team will have free agent money this year and next, and BKN will be a hard sell to free agents who will have better opportunities to play for winning franchises. There is good reason to hope the Celtics could be in a similar position each of the next two draft classes with the 2017 and 2018 BKN picks, notwithstanding the fact that BKN has no incentive to continue to lose.
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The other thing to keep in mind is that the East is now the younger and deeper conference. Denver and Sacramento might slip down a rung next year, but that just means more wins for teams up-and-coming teams like NO and MIN as well as those exiting tank-mode like LAL and PHX.
 
bowiac

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nighthob said:
I think you're missing HRB's point though, Brooklyn isn't the only crap team that will be looking for those guys. There will be a lot of GMs bidding on those players now, and they won't be sitting on dumpster fires quite as large as Brooklyn's. I agree that Marks' goal will be to sign the Evan Turners of the NBA, and he may well do so. But thanks to the cap expanding by $20 million this summer the Nets position isn't quite so straightforward.
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I didn't mean literally Bismack Biyombo. My point was that every year, there are a number of good values out there, who get left behind by teams who don't want to get "stuck in the middle", or just overlooked because many team's management isn't very good. Biyombo was just an example of a guy like that who many people flagged as a great value at the time he was signed.

The cap will be higher, but that shouldn't change this dynamic fundmentally.
 
nighthob

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bowiac said:
I didn't mean literally Bismack Biyombo. My point was that every year, there are a number of good values out there, who get left behind by teams who don't want to get "stuck in the middle", or just overlooked because many team's management isn't very good. Biyombo was just an example of a guy like that who many people flagged as a great value at the time he was signed.

The cap will be higher, but that shouldn't change this dynamic fundmentally.
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I wasn't really commenting on your post, I understand what Brooklyn will be trying to do. All HRB was saying that this could be the worst possible time to try that approach because there will be a lot of teams attempting to go this route next year and they'll all have the cap space to do it. So the "let's sign a bunch of averagish players and shoot for the middle" plan isn't as clear a path as it has been in the past.
 
BigSoxFan

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As expected, Toronto resting everyone. Brooklyn likely going to win tonight. Cmon Phoenix.
 
HomeRunBaker

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nighthob said:
I wasn't really commenting on your post, I understand what Brooklyn will be trying to do. All HRB was saying that this could be the worst possible time to try that approach because there will be a lot of teams attempting to go this route next year and they'll all have the cap space to do it. So the "let's sign a bunch of averagish players and shoot for the middle" plan isn't as clear a path as it has been in the past.
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Yes this is precisely what should happen therefore I do feel that this year the fundamental dynamics DO change drastically from the prior years. There will be much more competition for those value player which will drive up their price to which they will no longer be bargains.

8th-9th men who are FA are going to get paid this summer.
 
amfox1

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2016 draft picks:

#3, subject to lottery results (BRK)
#16 or 17 (DAL)
#21, 22, 23 or 24 (BOS)
#31 (PHI)
#35 (MIN)
#46 (pick of MEM&DAL)
#51, 52, 53 or 54 (MIA)
#58 (CLE)
 
Koufax

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June 23 will be something to look forward to.
 
moondog80

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amfox1 said:
2016 draft picks:

#3, subject to lottery results (BRK)
#16 or 17 (DAL)
#21, 22, 23 or 24 (BOS)
#31 (PHI)
#35 (MIN)
#46 (pick of MEM&DAL)
#51, 52, 53 or 54 (MIA)
#58 (CLE)
Click to expand...

Looks to me like the Mavs could be as high as 15th - 3 way tie with Memphis and Chicago?
 
allstonite

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Koufax said:
June 23 will be something to look forward to.
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May 17 is the lottery. 31% chance for a top 2 and can only drop as far as 6. The pick is ours but does Brooklyn still send someone to the lottery? Who do they send? They should trot Billy King back out there for all of these lotteries.
 
NavaHo

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allstonite said:
May 17 is the lottery. 31% chance for a top 2 and can only drop as far as 6. The pick is ours but does Brooklyn still send someone to the lottery? Who do they send? They should trot Billy King back out there for all of these lotteries.
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I'm pretty sure Brooklyn won't send anyone since the pick trade was unconditional. But it would be pretty amazing if the pick was protected for, say, just the #1 spot and there was a chance of a repeat of what happened to Memphis in 2003.

 
HomeRunBaker

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BigSoxFan said:
Troy Bell got hurt. Never had a shot with those knees.
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Didn't Bell first injure his knee prior to his second season then reinjured it again shortly thereafter? He was god awful in training camp and never saw the floor as a rookie but I thought he was healthy that season, no?
 
BigSoxFan

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HomeRunBaker said:
Didn't Bell first injure his knee prior to his second season then reinjured it again shortly thereafter? He was god awful in training camp and never saw the floor as a rookie but I thought he was healthy that season, no?
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He initially tore cartilage in college - believe it was his beginning of his junior year. Certainly not a death sentence but still a tough injury for a guard who relies on his quickness. Probably was the start of his knee issues. Came back his senior season and won his 2nd Big East POY award but I felt he had lost a little quickness from his awesome sophomore campaign.

Ultimately, he struggled because he was a 2 in a 1's body. He was an amazing scorer with incredible touch on his shot but his ball handling was not great for a guard his size. Always dribbled it too high and would struggle against tight pressure (John Linehan from Providence absolutely pestered him). I thought he would have an Eddie House kind of role for a while. But once the knee problems came, he was an undersized SG who no longer had the quickness to beat NBA defenders. Probably would have had a better go of it in today's NBA and some good knees.
 
moondog80

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Small matter but winning Dallas toss trumps finishing 3 of 4 in the other one.
 
BigSoxFan

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I'm ok with those results. Could always package the 2nds to move up a couple slots.
 
Cellar-Door

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Eddie Jurak said:
What pick could they realistically get for 16+23+31?
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Problem will be the picks you're looking at is probably 11-13. ORL/UTA/PHX are all teams that aren't looking to pick up more draft picks. Chicago does but they are at 14 and that seems a lot to give up to move 2 spots in a draft that experts seem to think isn't great.
 
amfox1

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Eddie Jurak said:
What pick could they realistically get for 16+23+31?
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Last year, 31+36 got traded for 24. The Olynyk trade was 16+two future 2nd rounders for 13, but DAL was eager to trade down. Of course, the 2014 trades were crazy (12+2nd rounder+future 1st rounder for 10; 16+19+future 2nd rounder for 11)

Best chance for a trade up IMO is SAC at 8 (pre-lottery, would take more than 16+23+31 IMO). Then, MIL at 10 (pre-lottery) is a possibility.

I do not see DEN at 7 (pre-lottery, from NYK), TOR at 9 (pre-lottery, from DEN), ORL at 11 (pre-lottery), UTA at 12 (pre-lottery) or PHX at 13 (pre-lottery, from WAS) trading for additional picks.

Let's say that SAC picks at 8 and Ingram, Simmons, Bender, Brown, Dunn, Murray and Hield (IMO, the top seven in the draft right now) are all off the board. SAC doesn't want to pick any of the big men in the next tier (Ellenson, Chriss, Poeltl, Davis, Rabb) and they decide they would trade down for a package of picks and/or players. I could see Ainge deciding to jump up to #8 by offering a boatload of picks and/or young players.
 
nighthob

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Milwaukee is a real possibility now that they have the Greek Freak acting as point forward. A package built around Avery Bradley would have a real attraction for the Bucks as adding a much needed dose of shooting to the roster.
 
BigSoxFan

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nighthob said:
Milwaukee is a real possibility now that they have the Greek Freak acting as point forward. A package built around Avery Bradley would have a real attraction for the Bucks as adding a much needed dose of shooting to the roster.
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Why would the Celtics give up Bradley and his team-friendly deal just to move up from 16 to 10?
 
nighthob

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I don't think that Boston would be including a pick at all. Due to that contract Bradley alone is worth #10. If they need a second lottery pick as part of a Jimmy Butler package that would be the easiest way to get one.
 
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