Gotcha. A scenario like that is really the only way I'd trade Bradley for a late lotto pick in 2016.
Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016
- Thread starter wutang112878
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In a 3-team deal such as this it would likely include our low first and a second rounder or two as filler.
As far as trading up from #16, after the 9th or 10th player the talent level seems to be roughly level until about #18. So, depending upon the trade partner whether a player drops, and what other teams want (both in talent and in trade assets), moving up to #10ish may be possible. If GMs of other teams basically don't see much differentiation in talent between 10 to 16, or, they expect a good player for their team to still be around at 16, then moving down would allow them to get a player they like and pick up an additional draft pick or two.
The question for Ainge is whether a player who might be at the 10 to 12 range is really someone he wants. Possibilities might be Luwawu, Labissiere, or perhaps Deyanta Davis. These players seem to be high risk, high yield sorts and with versatility to fit a variety of roles for Stevens. Ainge might see them as the sort of players worth gambling on.
The question for Ainge is whether a player who might be at the 10 to 12 range is really someone he wants. Possibilities might be Luwawu, Labissiere, or perhaps Deyanta Davis. These players seem to be high risk, high yield sorts and with versatility to fit a variety of roles for Stevens. Ainge might see them as the sort of players worth gambling on.
Ainge SHOULD be swinging for the fences with every post BKN pick. They got enough pretty good guys. Boom or bust types should be targetted...maybe even a Eurostash or two if they cant consolidate assets.
As much as I'm dying to the see the C's win the lottery as a fan, I'm also just curious to see what happens when you add a top-tier draft talent to a playoff team. It's easy to say that rookies don't affect wins that much but it's not often that the very best rookies are added to teams that aren't already godawful. The Pistons blew their shot with Darko, Lebron needed Love, and so on.
If there is not a smaller complimentary role to fill like Harrison did in Oakland than the kid sits and learns the NBA from professionals like Paul George did behind Granger.
Ugh so true. Hadn't even thought of these examples but you can plug Bias into my Harrison comparison and Lewis fits into the George role in their rookie season.If the Celtics are any guide, then the player dies.
How about Kawhi Leonard? He fit into the Spurs rotation pretty seamlessly for a good chunk of the season. The 20 year-old version of him obviously wasn't as good as today's but he's an example of a guy who contributed to a contender for a coach who is notoriously difficult to play for as a young player.
There was a kid (20ish?) at Fenway on Saturday wearing a home Bias #30 jersey.If the Celtics are any guide, then the player dies.
Well, yeah, I'd only be trading Bradley as part of a deal for a star, and Chicago might value a second lottery pick more than Bradley (so that they can address three positions in the draft).
Kevin O'Connor has the Celtics taking Hield at #4 in his latest mock draft, based mainly on the C's need for shooting.
http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/4/22/11428156/kevin-oconnors-2016-nba-draft-guide-mock-draft-celtics-select-buddy-hield
http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/4/22/11428156/kevin-oconnors-2016-nba-draft-guide-mock-draft-celtics-select-buddy-hield
Did he have Murray going third? Otherwise, I can't imagine Celts doing that (and if Murray went third one wonders about Bender anyway).
I can't find his mock at the link---no way I'm buying his draft guide!
I can't find his mock at the link---no way I'm buying his draft guide!
A lot of people are talking about Hield ahead of Murray because of need, AKA a guy who is going to be a better bet to bring offense right away.
Curious what others who follow the draft closely think---I find it pretty unlikely Hield is picked by Celts with Murray on the board, as I think Murray is a much better fit (and likely a better player very soon, if not right away). That is why I was surprised---I haven't seen many (possibly any) draftniks who have it this way. Doesn't make it wrong, obviously, just curious.
I kind of agree. I would think that if Danny really wants Hield he should move down to get him. I do wonder if he's overreacting to current struggles, although maybe he does have a point - the C's shooting is so bad right now that even a little bit of help there would have a big impact.
All in all, if we grab Hield at 4 I'll be disappointed.
All in all, if we grab Hield at 4 I'll be disappointed.
Ainge shouldn't be prioritizing a single skill, even shooting, over best player available. Thankfully, I don't think he will, if only because the best player available with that pick is whatever NBA player he's going to trade it for.*
*Subject to change based on lotto results.
*Subject to change based on lotto results.
I have Murray well ahead of Hield and as you say he may be better than him right now while spotting the latter over 3 years. I can't imagine Ainge even considering Hield in the Top 5.
I think Hield is and will continue to be the better shooter by a decent margin. I also think he's better equipped to defend NBA players.
I can see Hield as Reddick with a bit better D.
He won't beat guys off the dribble or run the offense.
Murray I am not in love with, he's probably got more upside, but I don't see an elite athlete or skill there.
Hopefully we land top 3 so we don't have to decide between those two and Brown
I can see Hield as Reddick with a bit better D.
He won't beat guys off the dribble or run the offense.
Murray I am not in love with, he's probably got more upside, but I don't see an elite athlete or skill there.
Hopefully we land top 3 so we don't have to decide between those two and Brown
I'm surprised to see Brown still listed as a top-6 talent -- his year at Berkeley was full of shortfalls and disappointing games. He must have the hops of Aaron Gordon or a pre-injury Richard Jefferson to stay so high on the draft board.
How about Dragan Bender? Is his ceiling high enough to spend a #3 pick on (assuming the Celtics end up with #3)? If not, I assume that Ainge will look to trade the BKN pick to a rebuilding team for talent that has already experienced first-year growing pains (as in HRB's scenario for acquiring Okafor).
How about Dragan Bender? Is his ceiling high enough to spend a #3 pick on (assuming the Celtics end up with #3)? If not, I assume that Ainge will look to trade the BKN pick to a rebuilding team for talent that has already experienced first-year growing pains (as in HRB's scenario for acquiring Okafor).
Bender is moving towards the consensus #3 I think if he isn't already.
Very good chance Danny trades the pick no matter where it is.
For Brown, he's raw and inconsistent, but he's go basically ideal physical tools, 6-7 7+wingspan etc. If you had to pick one player outside the top 2 that was going to be an elite scorer in the NBA it's probably Brown. He fits into the DeRozan/Harden mold of slashing wings (though unlike Harden he'll probably defend pretty well). He was also much much better during the stretch where they actually had a decent PG in February.
I think they're trading for Butler especially if they land #1, as it simplifies the whole process for the Bulls. After that they turn their attention to Horford and/or Durant in free agency.
Maybe they want to, but that's no guarantee it will happen. Especially if they wind up with #5 or #6.
This is interesting. I'm not sold on Simmons but would you trade Ingram and his rookie deal for Butler?
I think Ingram could be as good/Better than Butler pretty early in his career. Specially if he hits the weight room.
I agree with those on trading the pick. The higher it is the more valuable it is as a trade chip. Chicago could trade Butler and draft his replacement.
You think Ingram will be better than one of the best two way players in the NBA early on? Hope Chicago agrees with you. I highly doubt that they do.
I could be wrong but I thought that sequence only occurred as such because they wouldn't have known Lebron was coming back until the start of free agency (hypothetically in a world sans tampering), and they wouldn't trade Wiggins for Love without Lebron in the fold. The C's otoh would absolutely trade for Butler with or without any expectations of acquiring a big time FA.
The Jeff Green for Ray Allen trade was announced on the same say as the draft, so no, you're not wrong.
Teams have until 2 pm on draft day to trade picks. After that, everyone picks in their spot and then the trade is announced after the fact.
I'm a believer in Ingram, and in 4 years time it won't be a question. That being said, the Celtics are not the late aughts Thundersonics. They are built to win today, not five years down the road. For one thing some of these guys are iffy five years down the road. Lil' Zeke, for example, is 27 and guys that are 5'9" in their Doc Martens don't exactly have a long track record of high level performance post-30.
Thanks to their cache of draft picks the Celtics are built to win today and over the long term, but the more value they get out of the 2016 pick the more of that cache they'll get to keep, and be able to add high upside talent to whomever they bring in this summer. So, yes, a trade of #1 for Butler, and leveraging that into an Al Horford signing, puts them in the driver's seat to contend for a decade as their next two lottery picks step on to a veteran team that's playing important games in May.
I am not sure about this.
Even if they add an All Star wing, is this a team that can beat the Warriors in a seven game series next season? Meanwhile Thomas will be 32 in five years but Bradley, Smart, etc will still be in their primes.
I don't mind the idea of trading the pick, but I hope it is not part of a Brooklyn style "all in" strategy. The advantage the Celtics have right now is that they have the option of either striking at another KG & Ray Allen opportunity and playing the long term development strategy.
We are absolutely in Win-Now mode or at worst "Win-More-Now" by moving our pick and having the likely high lottery picks to move next summer and the summer after. I don't expect Danny to draft a single 19-year old lottery pick unless it is a true transcendent player with the 1 or 2 pick in 2017 or 18. I surely don't expect Ainge to build his team around role players like Bradley and Smart as the 2-guard position that they occupy may be one of the first that is upgraded this summer with Jimmy Butler.
We don't have to gut our future picks like Brooklyn did as we have THEIR picks to utilize to improve much quicker than waiting until 2021 for these kids to (maybe) develop into star NBA players.
Are we really title contenders even with Butler and an aging Al Horford, though? I would say no. In my mind this would be the same mistake that the Nets made: cashing in the team's chips in order to build a team that isn't good enough to win a title.
I would not mind trading for Butler . . . as long as the strategy is not win now or bust.
You don't feel that adding two All-Stars to our lineup would be a significant improvement over Amir Johnson and Evan Turner in our starting lineup tonight? Then there is also the Nets high lottery pick next season to add ANOTHER big piece. Oh....and the one the following year too. There is no way that Ainge is going to sit back and draft a couple teenagers these next 3 years. If I had to bet I'd say the number is zero.
If Ainge can somehow get those deals done I don't know how you can say it isn't a significant upgrade to a team that already won 48 games this season.
Bradley's a roleplayer. A good one, but still a roleplayer. His best use is as a PG defender for a team that can run the offense out of another spot (like Milwaukee or Cleveland or Houston or OKC). They want to win while Lil' Zeke is still a valuable performer, and before it comes time to extend him. The question really isn't "Can we build a historically good NBA team," it's "Can we build a team with a legitimate shot at a title?" The latter just requires being one of the two best teams in the east, and they absolutely can get there this summer. Especially if they have Ingram to trade for Butler and can consolidate some of their later picks.
I actually do expect them to pocket the future lottery picks after winning this lottery and turning Ingram or Simmons into a legit all star vet and signing a free agent like Horford this summer. And I expect the guys from '17 and '18 to be in prime space to succeed (a la Leonard in San Antonio) for walking onto a competitive veteran team playing for a title.
Two things:
1) People make the "win now" argument every year, and betting on a top 5 pick is the right move a solid majority of the time. I think we had the same argument about the Wiggins for Love trade for the Cavs (which I still hate) two years ago, though, so I doubt I will change your mind.
2) Of course it would be an upgrade. I simply don't think it's enough of an upgrade to win a title, which should be the goal.
We will have to agree to disagree, I suppose. If we are going to blow all of our draft capital on winning in the next two years, I want a lot more than the equivalent of the 2015 Hawks.
