Celtics Free Agent Targets and Rumblings

Jed Zeppelin

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We just pretending Howard doesn't fit one of the Celtics two gaping holes? I don't love the guy but if they miss out on Durant/Horford who grabs boards/defends the interior?
He's 30, and an old 30 at that. Horford just turned 30 and has played over 10,000 fewer minutes. That's before you even get into the fact that weird chemistry stuff seems to follow Dwight everywhere he goes.

Of course, our bigs are so bad that even in his state of physical decline he would represent an upgrade. And I am glad that they're getting meetings. I doubt they have any interest in anything long-term with this guy.
 

bowiac

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I don't agree Howard would be a clear upgrade on ours bigs fwiw . There's a reason Houston isn't really pursuing him, and it's not just Clint Capela. He's still a good defender, but he's no longer the game changer he once was, and he doesn't do much on offense apart from tip-ins (and he's getting fewer of them than before - usage is down significantly).

Howard is still a good player, and he does seem like someone who would benefit from playing for Stevens, but the underlying skills are in decline. He'd fill a role, but I don't think it's clear he'd play in crunchtime or anything, especially if the Celtics trail.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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If other options fall through I wouldn't mind Howard on a 1-year deal with a team option for year 2. But that's it. He's a cancer who can't shoot free throws.
 

BigSoxFan

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Who is giving Howard 30/year? Wanting and getting are two different things.
In an environment where scrubs are looking at 10M / year, Howard is going to get paid. Whether that amount ends up being 25, 28, or 30 is immaterial. He's no longer worth tying up cap space and flexibility and I hope the Celtics aren't really serious here.
 

Devizier

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If Dwight Howard is willing and able to remake himself as a Buck Williams-type garbageman, then he's going to be fine for a few more years.

But that's a huge if.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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In an environment where scrubs are looking at 10M / year, Howard is going to get paid. Whether that amount ends up being 25, 28, or 30 is immaterial. He's no longer worth tying up cap space and flexibility and I hope the Celtics aren't really serious here.
I disagree that the contract amount is immaterial to a discussion about cap space and flexibility. My point in asking was to point out that Howard's not getting $30 million a year. He's not getting $28 or $25, either. The model NylonCalculus published, which Bowiac linked to in another thread, suggests he'll be in in the range of about $15/year. The "mock offseason" with Kevin Pelton, Nate Duncan and a couple of others ended with him at $18. In other words, he's getting paid to be exactly what he is: a role player.
 

reggiecleveland

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Howard may be "Three teamer" a guy that has to go through three teams before he realises he is not the star he thought he was. If he could be happy protecting the rim, running the floor, and finishing then he would be a exceptionally valuable. But the rumblings have always been about how he lacks the motor to be that guy. My theory last year on the Amir Johnson signing was the C's really value attitude and team play. The drafting of a high motor, tough guy athlete, with questionable skills at #3 indicates the same idea. So with that in mind if DW is a longshot with the C's. On the other hand I would love to see Whiteside a priority. I know they have lots of forwards, but none as good as he is.
 

BigSoxFan

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I disagree that the contract amount is immaterial to a discussion about cap space and flexibility. My point in asking was to point out that Howard's not getting $30 million a year. He's not getting $28 or $25, either. The model NylonCalculus published, which Bowiac linked to in another thread, suggests he'll be in in the range of about $15/year. The "mock offseason" with Kevin Pelton, Nate Duncan and a couple of others ended with him at $18. In other words, he's getting paid to be exactly what he is: a role player.
We will see. I'd be surprised if he goes for less than $20 / year like those models predict.
 

bowiac

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The model is trained on prior years data, which haven't had the kinds of giant cap increases (followed by another giant cap instead again!). I could see some team giving him $25M on a one-year deal or something, simply because they missed out everywhere else, and need to get above the salary floor.

I would be surprised to see him break $20M on a long-term deal, even with another projected cap spike next year.
 

BigSoxFan

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The model is trained on prior years data, which haven't had the kinds of giant cap increases (followed by another giant cap instead again!). I could see some team giving him $25M on a one-year deal or something, simply because they missed out everywhere else, and need to get above the salary floor.

I would be surprised to see him break $20M on a long-term deal, even with another projected cap spike next year.
I could see a 3/65 type deal for him from some dumb team thinking he just needs a change of scenery. Maybe I'm too cynical.
 

oumbi

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Nylon Calculus says Howard will get 14.5 million x 5 years. I think he may be able to get more than that, but certainly not the max.

Free-agents-tier-2.jpg
 

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E5 Yaz

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Better not show that list to Dwayne Wade; he's angry enough as it is
 

bowiac

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I would not want to root for the team that gives Allen Crabbe $70/4.
I think Crabbe is the other side of the Harrison Barnes coin. Probably better than most people think, and meets in the middle as probably a somewhat similar caliber player overall.

If I had more confidence that he was a good defender, I'd be pushing for the Celtics to sign him.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Howard could be interesting on a short deal as long as it won't interfere with signing a star. He still has something left, and I saw some good things early on in Houston before McHale got fired and he realized it was a tire fire. I think he could have a good couple seasons on the right kind of team, and the Celtics have a lot of the things that team needs. He could help rebounding a TON, and he can still defend, particularly if he isn't getting hung out to dry by his perimeter defenders which the Celtics wouldn't be doing. He'd be best served by having better shooters around him which the Celtics don't have.

All in all, the Celtics need a star, which Howard really isn't anymore, but they also need 3 things:
3Pt shooters
Rebounding
Rim Protection.
Howard does bring 2 of the 3, it all comes down to price and particularly years.
 

cheech13

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I'd be surprised if Howard doesn't get at least $60 million over three years.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Adam Himmelsbach ‏@AdamHimmelsbach 5m5 minutes ago
Regarding Dwight Howard, hearing that right now Celtics have no plans for aggressive pursuit. Will always listen to see if a price is right.
This is along the lines of what I'm thinking. If the market is dry and Howard can be had on a deal structured similar to Amir's it's a no-brainer. 2/$50m with a team option improves our frontline, gives us a big tradeable expiring contract as opposed to the FA dreams, and allows us to avoid having to sign Sully, or any other big 4-5, to an expensive long-term deal.

I've never been a big Howard guy but he's a guy who has kept him mouth shut and tried to play basketball in Houston without getting any touches. He isn't a go-to guy but he was also misutilized down there. Howard also fits into the type of FA player we've been able to historically attract in Boston. The veteran frontcourt guy on the downside of his career arc....Ellison, McDaniel, Dominique, etc.
 

jmm57

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That list looks pretty low on a bunch of guys, based in speculation leading up to the off season.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'd take Biyombo at 12.4m/4years, but I doubt that that's what it'll take to sign him.

Why isn't Durant on that list?
That list is labeled tier 2, I assume Durant is T1.

That list looks pretty low on a bunch of guys, based in speculation leading up to the off season.
Yeah there are a lot of ones that make no sense, Whiteside and Conley stick out in particular as obvious undervalues by the model.
 

cheech13

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Supposedly they checked in on the availability of Rubio and Beverly as well. Both guys have their warts but aren't the worst choices stylistically if the plan is actually Waiters and Barnes on the wing.
 

bowiac

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Yeah there are a lot of ones that make no sense, Whiteside and Conley stick out in particular as obvious undervalues by the model.
I'm not really that sure how much Whiteside will get. There's a reason Spo was bringing him off the bench in the 4th quarter a lot. It's hard to tell what GMs think they can fix, and what they can't, but he might have a surprisingly soft market.

Conley I agree about.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I'm not really that sure how much Whiteside will get. There's a reason Spo was bringing him off the bench in the 4th quarter a lot. It's hard to tell what GMs think they can fix, and what they can't, but he might have a surprisingly soft market.

Conley I agree about.
Whiteside doesn't deserve the max, but apparently his first meeting is with the Mavs and Cuban said it'll take them 30 seconds to offer the max. According to reports, at least.
 

DJnVa

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Whiteside doesn't deserve the max, but apparently his first meeting is with the Mavs and Cuban said it'll take them 30 seconds to offer the max. According to reports, at least.
One second.

"Absolutely, no questions asked. The financial negotiations with the Mavericks will take all of one second. Max. One second max for the max," MacMahon stated emphatically.

"If you're going to try and recruit Hassan Whiteside you can haggle about money, but he's gonna cross you off his list and move on," said MacMahon.
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/report-mavs-will-meet-with-hassan-whiteside-first-offer-the-max/
 

HomeRunBaker

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Whiteside doesn't deserve the max, but apparently his first meeting is with the Mavs and Cuban said it'll take them 30 seconds to offer the max. According to reports, at least.
Yes, I agree 100% that there will be multiple max offers for Whiteside to choose from.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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@GoodmanESPN: Celtics have agreed to amend the guarantee date for both Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko to July 7 instead of July 3, per source.
 

E5 Yaz

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I didn't know where to put this, so excuse me if it's incorrect

Chris Forsberg ESPN Staff Writer
Bits of Celtics housekeeping via ESPN's Jeff Goodman: The Celtics formally extended a $3.7 million qualifying offer to make Tyler Zeller a restricted free agent.
 

DJnVa

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@GoodmanESPN: Celtics have agreed to amend the guarantee date for both Amir Johnson and Jonas Jerebko to July 7 instead of July 3, per source.
I'm not an NBA contracts guy, but doesn't pushing the date back help the Celtics? What benefit do the players get from this?
 

gammoseditor

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I'm not an NBA contracts guy, but doesn't pushing the date back help the Celtics? What benefit do the players get from this?
If they don't push it back the Celtics are going to pick up the option. If the Celtics don't pick up the option both guys will get raises. Amir Johnson may not get a raise but he will get more guaranteed money.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah it was pretty clearly a win-win.
Team gets time to figure out what's going on.
Players get a reduced likelihood of trade somewhere they don't want to be and increased chance of being UFA in a crazy market
 

JCizzle

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Bill Simmons seems to be pretty stoked on Twitter, I hope we can land him.

I think half of these will be right... KD GS Barnes Philly Conley Mavs Whiteside Mavs Horford Bos Wade Bucks Noah NY Parsons LAL

 

Statman

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Bulpett is reporting that the Celtics group is flying out tonight to meet with Horford and that Ainge is prepared to offer him a max deal of $113M/4 years.

Get it done Danny!

The Celtics will be flying out to meet with Al Horford tonight, and a league source fully expects that Danny Ainge will be bearing a maximum contract offer.

There had been talk during the season that perhaps the Hawks’ center, who turned 30 last month, wasn’t worth that level of a deal. But the Celts have apparently come around on that, and at four years for a little more than $113 million, he’d easily fit into their salary structure, with ample room left for a premier scorer.

...

But even if the C’s fail on Durant, they see Horford as an important piece in how they want to play. He has good size, and his ability to step outside and shoot works very well in Brad Stevens’ desired method of attack. (Having players who can space the floor means defenders have to stay closer, thus opening the middle for the type of actions the coach likes to run.)
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2016/07/bulpett_celtics_interest_in_al_horford_not_dependent_on_kevin_durant
 
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MillarTime

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Get it done Danny!
This. Seeing the other contracts being handed out is truly disorienting. Horford at 4/$113 in the market is good value if they can convince him to leave $$$ on the table with the Hawks (not optimistic).
 

Minneapolis Millers

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With the caps going up, there's too much money to spend on not enough good players. If teams are going to "overspend" anyway, you might as well overspend on really good players instead of mid-level guys. So, yeah. Get Horford.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Seems like Atlanta wouldn't go the extra year. If so I imagine they're out of the running. Feels like the C's would need to lock him up tonight before OKC can ship salary out and such.
 

nighthob

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This. Seeing the other contracts being handed out is truly disorienting. Horford at 4/$113 in the market is good value if they can convince him to leave $$$ on the table with the Hawks (not optimistic).
Well, two things, the Hawks are one of the teams meeting with Dwight, so they might be preparing to move on anyway, especially where the local hero will cost less. And there's always the chance that Boston can make the deal via sign & trade to clear the payroll space for Durant (say something along the lines of AJ/JJ and one of Hunter/Young).