Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

[nighthob]

The argument against Embiid is really the argument about cornerstone centers in the playoffs.

Embiid can protect the rim and make you pay at the other end if you try to "Gobert" him (playing 5 out) in a way Gobert cannot. But Embiid still only plays drop coverage. Every playoff team with a chance to win a title is going to have multiple guys who can run a high PnR into a makeable 3 point shot off the dribble. Against drop coverage, that shot is always there. Yes, other teams also have drop coverage centers, but they aren't being paid the max (or supermax, or supehrmahx -- I tried to do that in French).

Philly still hasn't made it out of the second round of the playoffs in the lesser conference. MVP Jokic (similar drop coverage issues, but without the rim protection) couldn't make it out of the second round (and got destroyed by PnR). I've turned Gobert into a verb which tells you all you need to know about the Jazz in the playoffs.

Maybe if Philly finally gets rid of Simmons, gets their own version of a guy that can run a high PnR, and surrounds Embiid with the right kinds of players we'll see that Embiid isn't just an 82 (well, more like 65) game player but a 16 game player as well. I have some doubts.

I keep saying that we live in the age where the 6'4" to 7' positionally flexible player is the most valuable guy there is. And the unicorn of that player is the one that can shoot threes well at volume, draw fouls, and play plus defense. Those guys are always more valuable than traditional centers due to the latter's limited defensive toolbox. But people keep ooooohing and aaaaahing over big men and overrating them as a result. I love watching Jokic play... for the Nuggets. I'd probably hate him if Boston had 30% of their cap tied up in a guy that gets run off the floor.

Now if you can find a Kevin Garnett type player for the C spot, you've obviated the problem. And I guess those guys would be real unicorns. But after Anthony Davis, how many of those guys are there? Bam would be another. Marvin Bagley could have been one, I guess, until injuries overtook him (that goes for Harry Giles too). But there just aren't that many defensively flexible bigs out there now. The wing is king.

 

[Euclis20]

I keep saying that we live in the age where the 6'4" to 7' positionally flexible player is the most valuable guy there is. And the unicorn of that player is the one that can shoot threes well at volume, draw fouls, and play plus defense. Those guys are always more valuable than traditional centers due to the latter's limited defensive toolbox. But people keep ooooohing and aaaaahing over big men and overrating them as a result. I love watching Jokic play... for the Nuggets. I'd probably hate him if Boston had 30% of their cap tied up in a guy that gets run off the floor.

Now if you can find a Kevin Garnett type player for the C spot, you've obviated the problem. And I guess those guys would be real unicorns. But after Anthony Davis, how many of those guys are there? Bam would be another. Marvin Bagley could have been one, I guess, until injuries overtook him (that goes for Harry Giles too). But there just aren't that many defensively flexible bigs out there now. The wing is king.

I'd argue that Embiid, drop coverage or not, is a big that can win in today's wing friendly NBA. He's not the problem (when healthy) in Philly over the last few years. Just looking at the Atlanta series, Philly was +51 when he played and -31 when he sat. This discrepancy was particularly problematic in games 1 and 5, which Philly lost by 4 and 3 and Embiid was +13 and +11 respectively. He's not the reason what Philly hasn't gotten out of the 2nd round, it's Simmons and Harris that aren't holding up their end.

 

[slamminsammya]

The article is behind a Patreon paywall but Back Picks just put out an article looking at a PM type metric and how it varies in the regular season versus the post season (post season numbers are regressed quite a bit towards regular season numbers to reduce the variance). The data are pretty convincing that in the past 10 years, playoff bigs tend to lose value while smalls are the biggest gainers, relative to regular season performance. This is contrasted with the late 90s, where bigs were the most valuable position and didn't tend to lose or gain much value in the playoffs relative to the regular season.

Related to that, I think its fair to say Philly's struggles on offense are very related to having Ben Simmons, but I also think its fair to question the ceiling of an offense whose best player primarily plays down low.

 

[bakahump]

its a minor ingredient but you need to bake in that You have Jayson Tatum not only for more games but for 5 Mins per game more Over Embiid.

Embiid is a really good player. But he plays 30 mins a game. That likely wont improve as a 7 foot 280 lb man with conditioning issues (and injury past) gets older.
While Tatums mpg has gone up every year and probably still has another min or so left to grow.

 

[slamminsammya]

its a minor ingredient but you need to bake in that You have Jayson Tatum not only for more games but for 5 Mins per game more Over Embiid.

Embiid is a really good player. But he plays 30 mins a game. That likely wont improve as a 7 foot 280 lb man with conditioning issues (and injury past) gets older.
While Tatums mpg has gone up every year and probably still has another min or so left to grow.

Embiid played as many minutes and scored as many points per game as Tatum in his 7 game series against Atlanta with slightly higher usage. I agree that traditionally he has conditioning issues but its possible that's a thing of the past (and a reason why he took a leap this year).

 

[benhogan]

Embiid played as many minutes and scored as many points per game as Tatum in his 7 game series against Atlanta with slightly higher usage. I agree that traditionally he has conditioning issues but its possible that's a thing of the past (and a reason why he took a leap this year).

I'm a hair confused here. Are you comparing Tatum's minutes in the Nets series with Embiid's minutes in the Hawks series? why not include the Wizards series?

If you are just going by the Phil/Atlanta vs Boston/Nets series (SSS aside)
Tatum played over 40mins in 4/5 games in the Nets series. He played 22 mins in Game 2 because of a quirky eye injury.
All of Celtic losses were in double figures and JT probably got pulled at the end of games.

Embiid went over 40min once, Game 7 vs Atlanta. He didn't go over 30mins in any game against the Wizards (2 blowouts), he also missed a game in that series. In 38 career playoff games, Embiid has gone over 40mins 3x

I believe @bakahump makes a good point

 

[slamminsammya]

I'm a hair confused here. Are you comparing Tatum's minutes in the Nets series with Embiid's minutes in the Hawks series? why not include the Wizards series?

If you are just going by the Phil/Atlanta vs Boston/Nets series (SSS aside)
Tatum played over 40mins in 4/5 games in the Nets series. He played 22 mins in Game 2 because of a quirky eye injury.
All of Celtic losses were in double figures and JT probably got pulled at the end of games.

Embiid went over 40min once, Game 7 vs Atlanta. He didn't go over 30mins in any game against the Wizards (2 blowouts), he also missed a game in that series. In 38 career playoff games, Embiid has gone over 40mins 3x

I believe @bakahump makes a good point

I clearly didn't follow the Celtics series very closely! I chose the Atlanta series rather than the Wizards one since those games mattered more and were closer, as you mentioned the 2 blowouts.

 

[BringBackMo]

At what point in this offseason does everyone expect to begin to see additional roster moves?

• The draft is July 29
• Teams can begin (officially) negotiating with free agents on Aug 2
• Teams can begin signing players on Aug 6

Do we expect the Celtics to move quickly with any signings and/or trades, perhaps executing a plan that is already in place? Or do we think they’re more likely to to take the old “It’s a fluid situation” approach and wait to see what other dominoes fall around the league before making their moves?

A related question: How quickly do you expect the Fournier situation to be settled? It seems like a lot of the Celtics’ offseason plans are tied up in whether or not he is resigned, so will the speed with which that question is answered tell us anything about how quickly the C’s will move overall?

EDIT: I find these questions interesting as a fan of the team, of course, but also because of what the answers may tell us about Stevens as an executive. The speed with which he made the Kemba move surprised many of us from a guy whose aw-shucks demeanor was a big part of his coaching persona. I’m curious whether the boldness of that deal was more reflective of the roster mess or of Brad’s approach as the boss. I’m not saying the pace of the offseason will hint at the answer to that question, but I wonder if it might.

 

[benhogan]

At what point in this offseason does everyone expect to begin to see additional roster moves?

• The draft is July 29
• Teams can begin (officially) negotiating with free agents on Aug 2
• Teams can begin signing players on Aug 6

Do we expect the Celtics to move quickly with any signings and/or trades, perhaps executing a plan that is already in place? Or do we think they’re more likely to to take the old “It’s a fluid situation” approach and wait to see what other dominoes fall around the league before making their moves?

A related question: How quickly do you expect the Fournier situation to be settled? It seems like a lot of the Celtics’ offseason plans are tied up in whether or not he is resigned, so will the speed with which that question is answered tell us anything about how quickly the C’s will move overall?

Besides, the HC/GM shuffle, the Kemba trade was a pretty massive move. It telegraphed, in big bold letters, what Brad thought of the situation and his approach.

The draft itself will be a non-event, a mid 2nd will end up in Vegas/Maine.
Post-July 29 opens up the possibility of trading 2022 1st rounder++ in a deal. PBS may have to attach that 1st to TT to get a decent wing/ballhandler. TT at $9.7MM won't be in huge demand, as we've seen numerous times over the last few seasons getting any value for a fungible BIG isn't easy.

You're right, trying to re-sign Fournier on a reasonable deal will dictate this off-season.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

At what point in this offseason does everyone expect to begin to see additional roster moves?

• The draft is July 29
• Teams can begin (officially) negotiating with free agents on Aug 2
• Teams can begin signing players on Aug 6

Do we expect the Celtics to move quickly with any signings and/or trades, perhaps executing a plan that is already in place? Or do we think they’re more likely to to take the old “It’s a fluid situation” approach and wait to see what other dominoes fall around the league before making their moves?

A related question: How quickly do you expect the Fournier situation to be settled? It seems like a lot of the Celtics’ offseason plans are tied up in whether or not he is resigned, so will the speed with which that question is answered tell us anything about how quickly the C’s will move overall?

EDIT: I find these questions interesting as a fan of the team, of course, but also because of what the answers may tell us about Stevens as an executive. The speed with which he made the Kemba move surprised many of us from a guy whose aw-shucks demeanor was a big part of his coaching persona. I’m curious whether the boldness of that deal was more reflective of the roster mess or of Brad’s approach as the boss. I’m not saying the pace of the offseason will hint at the answer to that question, but I wonder if it might.

Draft night is going to be enormous for Brad to reshape this roster. He isn’t (shouldn’t) going to sit on his hands hoping Fournier isn’t offered a big deal elsewhere as all of the action will be occuring prior to that. Missing out on opportunities for the right to overpay Evan Freakin Fournier would be a massive mistake.

 

[lexrageorge]

Besides, the HC/GM shuffle, the Kemba trade was a pretty massive move. It telegraphed, in big bold letters, what Brad thought of the situation and his approach.

The draft itself will be a non-event, a mid 2nd will end up in Vegas/Maine.
Post-July 29 opens up the possibility of trading 2022 1st rounder++ in a deal. PBS may have to attach that 1st to TT to get a decent wing/ballhandler. TT at $9.7MM won't be in huge demand, as we've seen numerous times over the last few seasons getting any value for a fungible BIG isn't easy.

You're right, trying to re-sign Fournier on a reasonable deal will dictate this off-season.

Regarding Thompson: it's a single season, and there will likely be takers for his contract for that very reason. For a team over the cap, the delta between $4M and $9.7M is mostly meaningless.

 

[benhogan]

Regarding Thompson: it's a single season, and there will likely be takers for his contract for that very reason. For a team over the cap, the delta between $4M and $9.7M is mostly meaningless.

what over cap teams do you think will want him?

why would teams throw away $5.7 of over cap flexibility for a fungible BIG?
since they will be able to get that player at the min at the trade deadline

 

[PedroKsBambino]

what over cap teams do you think will want him?

why would teams throw away $5.7 of over cap flexibility for a fungible BIG?
since they will be able to get that player at the min at the trade deadline

If the team is over the cap it's unlikely that there is any real loss of cap flexibility; they'd need to have a specific cap situation up against lux tax/apron and contracts/plan to do other things for it to matter a lot. I get it's not totally irrelvant but it feels like you are confusing under the cap space (which indeed is pretty valuable and where i don't think teams will value TT) and the scenario the poster put forward for over the cap teams

 

[HomeRunBaker]

what over cap teams do you think will want him?

why would teams throw away $5.7 of over cap flexibility for a fungible BIG?
since they will be able to get that player at the min at the trade deadline

If a team is over the cap they don’t have cap flexibility. They can also create a valuable salary slot for the deadline while providing frontcourt depth in the interim. He’s probably the easiest of all to move.

 

[the moops]

Just need to make the Tristan Thompson and a 2nd for Delon Wright deal happen

 

[Devizier]

Thomson makes one year at MLE money. It should be trivial to move him. The hard part is getting something useful back.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

If a team is over the cap they don’t have cap flexibility. They can also create a valuable salary slot for the deadline while providing frontcourt depth in the interim. He’s probably the easiest of all to move.

I agree generally, though there is a scenario where you are near apron/lux tax/hard cap that you might care about the incremental few million. It just isn't all that likely to matter as to TT's value, I don't think.

 

[benhogan]

Not completely the same situation but dumping Theis, Baynes, Kanter, who were all on cheaper exp. deals, still somewhat cost the C's or didn't return anything.

Shouldn't we assume most teams that go over the cap, also have an eye on the apron, repeater, etc?
That incremental/added $5.7MM seems like a waste.

or maybe I'm completely misreading the market and he easily gets moved/returns something

 

[lexrageorge]

Not completely the same situation but dumping Theis, Baynes, Kanter, who were all on cheaper exp. deals, still somewhat cost the C's or didn't return anything.

Shouldn't we assume most teams that go over the cap, also have an eye on the apron, repeater, etc?
That incremental/added $5.7MM seems like a waste.

or maybe I'm completely misreading the market and he easily gets moved/returns something

There are a number of teams that operate between the cap and the apron and tax threshold every year. And the salary slot is large enough to be valuable to the acquiring team.

I personally feel that Danny messed up the Kanter situation all around., but that’s a different thread.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Not completely the same situation but dumping Theis, Baynes, Kanter, who were all on cheaper exp. deals, still somewhat cost the C's or didn't return anything.

Shouldn't we assume most teams that go over the cap, also have an eye on the apron, repeater, etc?
That incremental/added $5.7MM seems like a waste.

or maybe I'm completely misreading the market and he easily gets moved/returns something

I think that there are some teams that feel the same way that you do. Why pay 9MM for a jack of all trades big with no elite upside when I can get that for the vet minimum or low MLE.

But I think that most teams that value a guy like TT don't give 2 shits about whether he makes 5MM or 9MM, and some even might prefer the 9MM as a trade chip. The salary difference itself is not a show stopper in most instances.

Folks have valid examples of times when we traded guys for salary reasons, Bradley and Baynes for example (ha both AB). But as lex notes, teams aren't always operating on razor margins like that. And the earlier the move happens, the more flexibility exists.

 

[TripleOT]

There are a number of teams that operate between the cap and the apron and tax threshold every year. And the salary slot is large enough to be valuable to the acquiring team.

I personally feel that Danny messed up the Kanter situation all around., but that’s a different thread.

One more year of paying Kanter (half what they paid TT) and the Celtics would have had a low cost fourth wing for at least four seasons. Big mistake by Ainge. Of course, those late first round picks are dicey, but I will think about Bane the same way I thought about DeAndre Jordan, when Ainge flubbed that late round first in 2008.

 

[the moops]

Hollinger has the Celtics resigning Fournier for something we all would be happy with (I think)

With Fournier turning 29 in October, something on the order of three years and $45-50 million seems perfectly reasonable.

LINK

 

[DGreenwood]

Here's a link to the Hollinger article on his top 20 free agent projections Link

16. Evan Fournier, SG, Celtics: $13,385,953
The Celtics seemed to position themselves to re-sign Evan Fournier by trading Kemba Walker to Oklahoma City; while the market for wings who can score historically runs hotter than BORD$ projects, the Celtics are in good shape regardless. Even matching last year’s $17.1 million salary for Don’t Google is likely manageable for Boston now.

While retaining him almost certainly puts the Celtics into the luxury tax, it would only be a one-year stay. With Fournier turning 29 in October, something on the order of three years and $45-50 million seems perfectly reasonable.

 

[lexrageorge]

One more year of paying Kanter (half what they paid TT) and the Celtics would have had a low cost fourth wing for at least four seasons. Big mistake by Ainge. Of course, those late first round picks are dicey, but I will think about Bane the same way I thought about DeAndre Jordan, when Ainge flubbed that late round first in 2008.

I'm in the minority in that I always thought Kanter would have been fine as a #3 big behind Theis and R. Williams, at least during the grind of the regular season.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm in the minority in that I always thought Kanter would have been fine as a #3 big behind Theis and R. Williams, at least during the grind of the regular season.

Problem with Kanter was always 2 fold... 1 you needed him to be the #2 since you had no idea how much TL would play, and 2... this was always supposed to be a playoff team and Kanter couldn't play in the playoffs.

Edit- also part of the Kanter move was making sure they could get out of the tax and freeing up a roster spot.

 

[sezwho]

Hollinger has the Celtics resigning Fournier for something we all would be happy with (I think)

With Fournier turning 29 in October, something on the order of three years and $45-50 million seems perfectly reasonable.

LINK

I was highly skeptical of him returning for less than 3x15, so seems reasonable.

I’m hopeful that the right systems and coaching will maximize his value on O and minimize the limitations on D. What I can’t decide is how much hope should turn to optimism.

 

[JM3]

I missed all the Tatum arguing. Weak.

You guys ever get 20+ guys together & draft some teams for either single season, 3 years or 5 year+ windows? It could help with your size arguments & always makes for fun arguments.

This is probably a bad take, but if the entire league was available to draft, I think the only players I take ahead of Tatum are Luka, Giannis & reluctantly Jokic.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

One more year of paying Kanter (half what they paid TT) and the Celtics would have had a low cost fourth wing for at least four seasons. Big mistake by Ainge. Of course, those late first round picks are dicey, but I will think about Bane the same way I thought about DeAndre Jordan, when Ainge flubbed that late round first in 2008.

They didn't have a roster spot.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Sure they did---they could have cut Edwards, not re-signed Semi, etc. But we've been over this before. Unless you are talking about 2008--I don't have that roster top of mind anymore....

 

[Burkharts Uppercut]

Sure they did---they could have cut Edwards, not re-signed Semi, etc. But we've been over this before. Unless you are talking about 2008--I don't have that roster top of mind anymore....

Plus Javonte, and you have until the season starts to get under the roster limit. They didn't have to make a panic trade on draft night. As it turned out Portland's interest in Kanter developed after the draft.

 

[Swedgin]

Here's a link to the Hollinger article on his top 20 free agent projections Link

He makes an excellent point in that Dallas's calculus is not, as I had been thinking, Hardaway vs. Fournier - its really Hardaway + MLE signing vs. Fournier.

 

[nighthob]

I missed all the Tatum arguing. Weak.

You guys ever get 20+ guys together & draft some teams for either single season, 3 years or 5 year+ windows? It could help with your size arguments & always makes for fun arguments.

This is probably a bad take, but if the entire league was available to draft, I think the only players I take ahead of Tatum are Luka, Giannis & reluctantly Jokic.

Jokic can’t stay on the floor in the playoffs. No way I’m taking him ahead of Tatum. Durant, yes.Jokic? No.

 

[JM3]

Jokic can’t stay on the floor in the playoffs. No way I’m taking him ahead of Tatum. Durant, yes.Jokic? No.

Sometimes you just have to hit Cam Payne in the face. These things happen. His playoff stats have been good to elite. I'll probably give him a bubble pass for the Suns series. That's a really close one for me. I'd rather root for Tatum tho.

I would take Durant for the next 3-5 years, but not in a rest of their career scenario.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jokic can’t stay on the floor in the playoffs. No way I’m taking him ahead of Tatum. Durant, yes.Jokic? No.

How exactly can he not? He's averaging 37 MPG in the playoffs for his career and is by far the best player on his team in those minutes.

 

[DJnVa]

How exactly can he not? He's averaging 37 MPG in the playoffs for his career and is by far the best player on his team in those minutes.

He was under 30 minutes in 2 of the 4 games this year, but don't recall why.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Sometimes you just have to hit Cam Payne in the face. These things happen. His playoff stats have been good to elite. I'll probably give him a bubble pass for the Suns series. That's a really close one for me. I'd rather root for Tatum tho.

I would take Durant for the next 3-5 years, but not in a rest of their career scenario.

I wouldn’t take Durant over Tatum for that long. He turns 33 in September. Tatum just turned 23 a few months ago. I’d probably take Durant for a maximum of 2 years.

 

[the moops]

He was under 30 minutes in 2 of the 4 games this year, but don't recall why.

In game 2, PHO pushed the leade to almost 30 in the first few minutes of the 4th while he was resting. He never came back in.
He was ejected in game 4 for a hard foul.

 

[DJnVa]

In game 2, PHO pushed the leade to almost 30 in the first few minutes of the 4th while he was resting. He never came back in.
He was ejected in game 4 for a hard foul.

See? He can't stay on the floor.

 

[cheech13]

Jokic has been unreal in the playoffs, single handedly got them to the second round this year with almost no help. He was also the key reason they made the Conference Finals last year.

 

[the moops]

See? He can't stay on the floor.

Tatum only played 21 minutes in game 2 against PHO. What a bum

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Tatum only played 21 minutes in game 2 against PHO. What a bum

Covid.

 

[nighthob]

Sometimes you just have to hit Cam Payne in the face. These things happen. His playoff stats have been good to elite. I'll probably give him a bubble pass for the Suns series. That's a really close one for me. I'd rather root for Tatum tho.

I would take Durant for the next 3-5 years, but not in a rest of their career scenario.

That's not what I'm talking about. Jokic is a great regular season player, but come the playoffs, when opponents are willing to kill for every game, other teams pick & roll Jokic to death. That's just what happens when you're huge and not particularly quick. So he'll lead you to a high seed, but after that you're on your own. To me that's just a limited player. I can't take him over a wing that's an offensive gravity well and a plus defender.

And this problem isn't unique to Jokic, it's just the way the game has evolved away from old fashioned centers. In the last decade the game's moved to bigs like Anthony Davis. Consider Garnett the prototype of the modern big man. You want the guys with broad defensive toolboxes that are plus offensive players. This is one of the things the Warriors were hoping for with Wiseman and that whomever takes Evan Mobley in a couple of weeks will be hoping for (Mobley has a much better shot of being that guy due to more offensive polish).

It's not Jokic's fault, if you could put him in a time machine and beam him back to 1985 whatever team had him likely wins 70 games. But the game changed as people started doing the math. So we've reached the age where the game is being dominated by the defensively flexible 6'4"-7' guys (and really more like 6'10" guys, Giannis and KD are the exceptions that bear out the rule). Guys that fit into that reality are going to be more valuable than the ones that don't.

 

[nighthob]

Jokic has been unreal in the playoffs, single handedly got them to the second round this year with almost no help. He was also the key reason they made the Conference Finals last year.

You misspelled Jamal Murray's name (especially as he was the guy that literally shot them into the WCF). Also, the real hero of their postseason was the bubble. The old joke is that roleplayers travel poorly (i.e. they don't play nearly as well in front of hostile crowds). Thanks to the bubble there were no hostile crowds.

 

[the moops]

And this problem isn't unique to Jokic, it's just the way the game has evolved away from old fashioned centers

Jokic is nothing like an old fashioned center though, is he?

 

[nighthob]

Defensively he's a one trick pony. And those guys are just really tough to build around with the way the game's evolved.

 

[JM3]

I wouldn’t take Durant over Tatum for that long. He turns 33 in September. Tatum just turned 23 a few months ago. I’d probably take Durant for a maximum of 2 years.

Going year-by-year or for the total duration? Like if we agree that Durant will be better for the next 2 years, it still makes sense to take him over Tatum for a 3-year window.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Going year-by-year or for the total duration? Like if we agree that Durant will be better for the next 2 years, it still makes sense to take him over Tatum for a 3-year window.

Year by year. I also think there’s a very real chance Tatum is better for good by 2022-2023 season.

 

[the moops]

There is also a real chance that Tatum isn't on this team in 4 years though. It's a tough question considering the nature of player power and free agency and them deciding where they want to play. I ma not knocking the player, I agree with them and will never fault a player for wanting to work where they either are the most comfortable or have the nest chance to succeed. So, if you were guaranteed the best or 2nd best player in basketball (Durant for 2-3 years) or the up and coming potetntial top 5 player in Tatum for the next 4 years guaranteed and maybe the next 10 years depending on his thinking, what do you do?

 

[benhogan]

There is also a real chance that Tatum isn't on this team in 4 years though. It's a tough question considering the nature of player power and free agency and them deciding where they want to play. I ma not knocking the player, I agree with them and will never fault a player for wanting to work where they either are the most comfortable or have the nest chance to succeed. So, if you were guaranteed the best or 2nd best player in basketball (Durant for 2-3 years) or the up and coming potetntial top 5 player in Tatum for the next 4 years guaranteed and maybe the next 10 years depending on his thinking, what do you do?

take Tatum every time

If its a coin toss that JT re-signs (stays for 10yrs), Tatum's year 5-10 (some peak years in there) will be exponentially worth more than KD's 38-42yr old season (probably out of basketball or expensive/slower)

Even if the odds were 25% JT re-signs, you'd still select Tatum

 

[cheech13]

The window for the majority of NBA teams is 2-3 years. You are doing a major disservice to your organization if you are planning for some future beyond.