Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

Cellar-Door

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So that would eliminate our ability to free up the cap space for Beal barring a move? I thought that was the justification for basically doing nothing on the market this offseason?

Edit: covered
Well the real justification was they didn't like the Fournier deal. They appear to have been very interested in bringing him back until NYK came in with 4/78. A Smart extension makes sense (TL honestly too) in that you can duck under the tax this year still, and then you go into a weak FA class with those guys under contract at reasonable rates so if you do have a shot at Beal or LaVIne, you can move them.
 

Cellar-Door

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https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/celtics-offseason-why-marcus-smart-robert-williams-extensions-make-sense

Apparently Forsberg put this out last night, but I kind of agree with him. Gutting the roster never made a lot of sense given the ability to S&T easily. He lays out the case for extensions for Smart and/or TL as actually making the team both more flexible going forward (more and better assets/contracts to use in trades) and better set up to add a star to a roster capable of winning a title (vs. adding the star then needing a year or two to rebuild depth).
 

JM3

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Maybe the Wizards have let it be known they would appreciate a Marcus Smart on that contract.
 

AMS25

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Schroeder was real good in OKC two years ago albeit in a different role than he’d be in here. He was inconsistent last year but he needs to be aggressive to be at his best and role players around LeBron/AD aren’t designed to play his style.

I wouldn’t know how to compare him to Smart as they are two completely different players with two different roles.
Schröder played well as the first option off the Thunder bench, but he also played alongside Chris Paul and SGA in a three point guard lineup. I thought that he was was versatile and adapted well to what was asked of him. Shooting-wise, he's always been a streaky shooter. When he was "on," he was "on"; when he was "off," he was "off."
 

Euclis20

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Smart’s shooting leap from terrible to passably below average happened three years ago, so I don’t think a 5 year comparison makes sense. For the last three seasons, Smart has had a TS% of .568/.518/.539. Schroder has been .508/.575/.543. Schroder is significantly higher usage, and that has some value, especially since we have a major need for even mediocre second unit offense unless Romeo makes a big leap toward his ceiling.
Fair on the 3 years vs 5, but it doesn't change the conclusion. Their TS' is dead even over the last 3 years, but Schroder averaged almost 50% more points. He's a better scorer than Smart, which they absolutely need right now.

Swapping Kemba/Fournier/Thompson for Schroder/Richardson/Horford, while hoping for reasonable improvement from the 7 rotation players under 25 from last year's team, plus better health/covid luck? Not the worst offseason ever, even while it feels like treading water at best.
 
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Cellar-Door

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Maybe the Wizards have let it be known they would appreciate a Marcus Smart on that contract.
Doubt it, but I also think unless he's terrible next year someone will want him on that contract based on what we've seen on FA deals and extensions
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Smart at that price with his name recognition is still a fair value even for a team that's going full rebuild. On rep alone he is a guy that can ostensibly help build accountability in whatever young players you're trying to rebuild with. I don't think this hurts their potential for future player movement at all, and as a potential acquiring you team you get the benefit of only 3 years left on the deal rather than getting him at FA when he is demanding a 4-5 year deal or whatever. As we saw with Hayward, S+T can fall apart easily. A team looks at that deal and doesn't have to worry about trying to retain him. And with moves like the Dinwiddie trade and maybe not being a destination team, the Wizards are a team that might be slightly more interested than other teams that would prefer to just clear as much salary as possible.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Smart at that price with his name recognition is still a fair value even for a team that's going full rebuild. On rep alone he is a guy that can ostensibly help build accountability in whatever young players you're trying to rebuild with. I don't think this hurts their potential for future player movement at all, and as a potential acquiring you team you get the benefit of only 3 years left on the deal rather than getting him at FA when he is demanding a 4-5 year deal or whatever. As we saw with Hayward, S+T can fall apart easily. A team looks at that deal and doesn't have to worry about trying to retain him. And with moves like the Dinwiddie trade and maybe not being a destination team, the Wizards are a team that might be slightly more interested than other teams that would prefer to just clear as much salary as possible.
The key part to recognize here is who are trading partner would be for Beal. I brought this up last week in how Leonsis has never been a “blow it up guy” and kept running out a veteran team as Juwan and Rod Strickland were turning grey while running out 30-win team. Aside from that you have a positional match with Smart and he’s always been the obvious guy to move in a Beal deal. This all makes a ton of sense for what the ultimate goal is here.
 

JakeRae

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View: https://twitter.com/McDNBA/status/1423732460085407744


Word that the Celtics have offerred Smart a 4 year extension starting at 17M (so somewhere between 68 and 77 total, likely 77)
My opinions on Smart are known here. This would be excellent news and a bargain.

I know it’s a bit of a minority view, but I see Smart as a guy who is exactly the type of player you want as the 4th best player on a contender and I think he still has space to improve shooting.
 

radsoxfan

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Having players as positive assets on contracts is more valuable than having open cap space.

We can certainly debate if Smart is a 20M a year type of player, but if other teams think he is, that’s all you need.

The key is not poorly evaluating (I.e. Kemba) and getting stuck with an albatross much more than anything else.
 

lexrageorge

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It does avoid having to deal with a contract year Smart as well, and the potential downsides that go along with that.
 

bigq

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Smart 4 years $77M. Fournier 4 years $78M.

Which contract is better?
 

NomarsFool

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Why is Smart at 4 years and 77 million an asset? Isn’t that about what he’d get as an UFA? In addition, suppose he gets hurt or declines this year? Are we then stapling picks to get rid of him? I don’t really get the move. I see little chance he has a great year and ~$20 million a year is considered under market.
 

Cellar-Door

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Why is Smart at 4 years and 77 million an asset? Isn’t that about what he’d get as an UFA? In addition, suppose he gets hurt or declines this year? Are we then stapling picks to get rid of him? I don’t really get the move. I see little chance he has a great year and ~$20 million a year is considered under market.
A guy at what he'd command in FA is useful. Smart at 4\77 is unlikely to be some amazing asset, but it is also the type of deal that you can trade without paying to move, so if you can get Beal for example Smart needs to go out, at 4\77 he goes out easily and maybe even brings back minor assets... Much like the S&T except better for the team getting him because no hardcap.

Edit- also looking at next year's weak FA class 4/80 or more wouldn't be surprising for Smart.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Why is Smart at 4 years and 77 million an asset? Isn’t that about what he’d get as an UFA? In addition, suppose he gets hurt or declines this year? Are we then stapling picks to get rid of him? I don’t really get the move. I see little chance he has a great year and ~$20 million a year is considered under market.
Timing is everything. He’d be one of the most highly sought after FA on the market next season. Top tier FA get paid even if they aren’t top tier players. See: Fournier, Evan
 

radsoxfan

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A guy at what he'd command in FA is useful. Smart at 4\77 is unlikely to be some amazing asset, but it is also the type of deal that you can trade without paying to move, so if you can get Beal for example Smart needs to go out, at 4\77 he goes out easily and maybe even brings back minor assets... Much like the S&T except better for the team getting him because no hardcap.

Edit- also looking at next year's weak FA class 4/80 or more wouldn't be surprising for Smart.
Exactly. Avoiding the horrible deals like Kemba, Blake Griffin, etc is the key.

Obviously there is some risk that Smart gets hurt or is terrible, but when you look at other players in that 15-20M range I think Smart is likely a small positive asset on that deal.

If Beal or KAT or someone else wants to come to the Celtics next year, it’s unlikely Smart will prevent it.
 

NomarsFool

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A guy at what he'd command in FA is useful. Smart at 4\77 is unlikely to be some amazing asset, but it is also the type of deal that you can trade without paying to move, so if you can get Beal for example Smart needs to go out, at 4\77 he goes out easily and maybe even brings back minor assets... Much like the S&T except better for the team getting him because no hardcap.

Edit- also looking at next year's weak FA class 4/80 or more wouldn't be surprising for Smart.
I don't know. Again, I see more downside risk (Smart gets hurt/sucks) than upside benefit (4/77 is seen as below market). I mean, in the end, if Smart gets 4/80 from some other team in a S&T - I certainly don't really care.

I feel a bit burned by us sending out a late 1st round pick to get rid of Kanter. Someone else everyone thought was a tradeable contract.
 

the moops

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Why is Smart at 4 years and 77 million an asset? Isn’t that about what he’d get as an UFA? In addition, suppose he gets hurt or declines this year? Are we then stapling picks to get rid of him? I don’t really get the move. I see little chance he has a great year and ~$20 million a year is considered under market.
Of course is he gets hurts or declines he wouldn't be worth the contract. But if he treads water or gets better? Why such the pessimistic view?
 

NomarsFool

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Of course is he gets hurts or declines he wouldn't be worth the contract. But if he treads water or gets better? Why such the pessimistic view?
As I mentioned earlier, I'm not much of a Marcus fan. I just don't see the upside. The possible benefit is that he plays well enough, and/or the market moves enough that 4/77 (since that is what is leaked I think there is almost zero chance that is what he signs for - but let's put that aside) is seen at below market and his real value is 4/85 or whatever. Is some other team going to give us that much extra value for that $7 million in "savings"? I don't see it. I see more risk that everyone knows we have to send him out to get Beal (or some other FA) and we don't get much for him at all, and then the risk that he declines/decreases in value I see as more likely than the upside.
 

bowiac

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Lonzo is probably the best FA comp for Smart, and he just signed for 4/85 (plus he was restricted). They're both gifted defensive point guards who are somewhat limited on the offensive side. Smart is materially better right now imo, but Lonzo is obviously younger.

So there's probably some value in a 4/77 deal, especially going out a year further in the NBA CBA. But also some risk to signing that deal a year early. I'd be pretty happy with the deal if it happens.
 

Soxy

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My opinions on Smart are known here. This would be excellent news and a bargain.

I know it’s a bit of a minority view, but I see Smart as a guy who is exactly the type of player you want as the 4th best player on a contender and I think he still has space to improve shooting.
Same here. I know others disagree, but I also like Smart as the starting PG. Tell him to cut the shit with bad shots and focus on defense, playmaking, and ball-handling. Tatum is going to handle the ball a ton anyways.

I'm intrigued by the defensive potential of a Smart-Jaylen-Tatum-Horford-Time Lord starting lineup.
 

pjheff

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As I mentioned earlier, I'm not much of a Marcus fan. I just don't see the upside.
The upside might just be the absence of downside. I’ve made it clear that I wouldn’t allow Smart (or any other role player) to interfere with our ability to land a third pillar. My takeaway from this offer is that Stevens has confidence (if not assurances) that Smart at 4/$68-$77M is a positive asset and that Udoka probably views as central to what he’s trying to accomplish on the floor and in the locker room.
 

Euclis20

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Same here. I know others disagree, but I also like Smart as the starting PG. Tell him to cut the shit with bad shots and focus on defense, playmaking, and ball-handling. Tatum is going to handle the ball a ton anyways.

I'm intrigued by the defensive potential of a Smart-Jaylen-Tatum-Horford-Time Lord starting lineup.
I don't see Horford being an effective starting 4 at this point so the 5 would be one of Horford/TL with Richardson likely as the 5th starter (or Nesmith/Langford if things go well), but I'm also pretty eager to see Smart as an actual starting point. The fit may be a tad iffy on offense, but it feels like forever that we've had a starting point guard that wasn't a defensive liability. Kemba/Kyrie/IT is a pretty impressive run of points (seriously, how many teams historically had three different point guards start in the all-star game over just four years), but all were a disaster on defense when the games started to count. Even Avery Bradley, for all of his defensive skill, was destroyed in switches.
 

Cellar-Door

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As I mentioned earlier, I'm not much of a Marcus fan. I just don't see the upside. The possible benefit is that he plays well enough, and/or the market moves enough that 4/77 (since that is what is leaked I think there is almost zero chance that is what he signs for - but let's put that aside) is seen at below market and his real value is 4/85 or whatever. Is some other team going to give us that much extra value for that $7 million in "savings"? I don't see it. I see more risk that everyone knows we have to send him out to get Beal (or some other FA) and we don't get much for him at all, and then the risk that he declines/decreases in value I see as more likely than the upside.
So here are my thoughts:
1. I think 4/77 is honestly a discount. I think current Marcus Smart on next year's market gets between 4/80 and 4/90
2. I see almost zero downside, short of an achilles tear, and even then maybe not based on all the injury history guys who have gotten huge deals coming off issues (Hayward, Dinwiddie, Collins)
3. The upside is that if Marcus does well as the starting PG and say is 2nd team all-defense and goes back to his 2018-2020 3pt shooting, he's a 4/100 guy.

The bigger thing is this... what a guy would get in FA isn't the same as his value. Smart would have value on that deal if we wanted to trade him because he's exactly the type of player that in the tax contenders want. So say a GSW... if we were getting Beal and WAS wanted expirings, they'd jump at the chance to turn Wiggins' expiring into Marcus, they'd tack on assets to do it, there are a bunch of big expirings for not good players that would be in play for him depending on who the teams who are trying to make a playoff push are (don't sleep on NOP in 2 years as they try to keep Zion)

The real upside also is.... Marcus Smart is pretty good. You have a very tight window to thread to get a star, and if you miss and you lose Smart for nothing you're in trouble. On the flip side, if you add a 3rd star and keep Marcus he's a good piece for a championship contender, or he's trade ballast. There is little chance he ends up underwater on that deal short of a career threatening/ending injury (and a team can get insurance on that).
 

pjheff

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The fit may be a tad iffy on offense, but it feels like forever that we've had a starting point guard that wasn't a defensive liability. Kemba/Kyrie/IT is a pretty impressive run of points (seriously, how many teams historically had three different point guards start in the all-star game over just four years), but all were a disaster on defense when the games started to count. Even Avery Bradley, for all of his defensive skill, was destroyed in switches.
Not just Smart, but ostensibly Dunn and even Richardson seem like a clear shift in direction from Ainge in favor of bigger smalls on the roster that Stevens has assembled and Udoka will implement.
 

Eddie Jurak

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OK. Here's how I read the Smart situation. The Celtics like him enough to give him the highest extension they can offer him, which works out to 4 years, $77M. (If they are offering only 4-$68M, that is just so that he can bargain up his deal a little bit.)

Because of the CBA, Smart can't ask for more $77M. He can only accept the extension or turn it down. If he turns it down, that triggers the "time to move on from Smart" process. If he accepts it, then he becomes one of the core parts of the Jay team. At least until his salary becomes more useful in a trade.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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OK. Here's how I read the Smart situation. The Celtics like him enough to give him the highest extension they can offer him, which works out to 4 years, $77M. (If they are offering only 4-$68M, that is just so that he can bargain up his deal a little bit.)

Because of the CBA, Smart can't ask for more $77M. He can only accept the extension or turn it down. If he turns it down, that triggers the "time to move on from Smart" process. If he accepts it, then he becomes one of the core parts of the Jay team. At least until his salary becomes more useful in a trade.
While it doesn't rule it out by any means, the reports that Smart was consulted before the Udoka hiring (which seems unusual for a non franchise player like Smart) as well as these rumors suggest that the chemistry issue chatter around the team last season might have been overblown.

Again, its not proof that Smart isn't trying to hijack the team but the evidence to the contrary is starting to accumulate.
 

Eddie Jurak

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While it doesn't rule it out by any means, the reports that Smart was consulted before the Udoka hiring (which seems unusual for a non franchise player like Smart) as well as these rumors suggest that the chemistry issue chatter around the team last season might have been overblown.

Again, its not proof that Smart isn't trying to hijack the team but the evidence to the contrary is starting to accumulate.
That, too. I was a bit concerned that the "Celtics are tearing it all down to go after Beal" narrative might... not bring out the best in Smart.
 

DJnVa

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Timing is everything. He’d be one of the most highly sought after FA on the market next season. Top tier FA get paid even if they aren’t top tier players. See: Fournier, Evan
Additionally, Celtics have lacked a lot "middle class" contracts the last few seasons. You had the Hayward and Kemba deals and kids on cheap ones. Tough to make deals work if needed.
 

NomarsFool

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I suspect the plan is to ensure Schroeder agrees to the 1/$9m that will be available if Brad can move Dunn into somebodies cap space.
Hmmm....if that takes assets, I'm not super thrilled. I'm happy to have Schroeder if it doesn't cost anything (other than money).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hmmm....if that takes assets, I'm not super thrilled. I'm happy to have Schroeder if it doesn't cost anything (other than money).

If you consider Dunn an asset.

edit: Never mind, I think you mean moving Dunn. That shouldn't require much if anything.
 

Cellar-Door

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could also trade Dunn for someone cheaper, cut Jabari and leave the spot open or sign someone with a lower min. Celtics only need to cut a little under $2M
 

benhogan

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HomeRunBaker

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Those who cringe at the thought of the B-word may want to drive past this article

BUT Keith Smart does a nice job setting up the roster/cap implications.

Sounds like a coin toss the Celtics go get Dennis Schroder (I think he heads back to OKC to re-establish value)

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/8/8/22615397/boston-celtics-roster-reset-and-cap-tax-picture
Would OKC even take him back? I don’t see that. He does nothing for them except take minutes from draft picks Mann and Giddey. Boston is the ultimate spot for him to establish value getting major minutes on a playoff team heading into a super weak FA class.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, OKC has zero interest in winning games. They’re going to be processing the shit out of the ‘22 season.
 

kazuneko

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Those who cringe at the thought of the B-word may want to drive past this article

BUT Keith Smart does a nice job setting up the roster/cap implications.l

Sounds like a coin toss the Celtics go get Dennis Schroder (I think he heads back to OKC to re-establish value)

https://www.celticsblog.com/2021/8/8/22615397/boston-celtics-roster-reset-and-cap-tax-picture
Question: the article seems to suggest that all that the Cs need to do is waive Jabari and they can offer the full MLE of 9.8 million. Is that correct? If so, is it really true - as the article suggests- that the only real barrier to doing this would be Wyc’s pocketbook and whether or not he wants to pay the tax on a “bridge year”?
 

Rustjive

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Smith, but I don't like any of his commentary this offseason. He really is handwaving the repeater tax away - here's his line about it in the article:
It’s fair to keep the repeater tax in mind, but at this point, it’s unlikely to come into play.
His rightly points out elsewhere that it's very hard to be in the tax when you sign a max free agent, as the Celtics may be posturing to do in 2022, so he's convinced that under the 'over 3 times in 4 years' criteria for the repeater the Celtics paying the tax this year won't hurt them. But at the same time he completely ignores the trade possibilities, which are far more likely than a straight-up signing. Almost every single max free agent that has moved teams in the past 4 years has been via sign-and-trade, there's absolutely no reason for any of the parties involved to avoid the sign-and-trade. The main 'uncertainty' regarding the future tax is whether or not the Celtics end up getting a max FA in 2022 or not.
 

cardiacs

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I hope they don't do it. I would rather experiment with who they have to distribute the ball. Nothing against Schroder, I think he's slightly underrated at this moment, but I don't think he adds enough.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, OKC has zero interest in winning games. They’re going to be processing the shit out of the ‘22 season.
40 games of 20ppg from Schroder at $10MM+ could lead to Presto the Magician turning him into...
another 1st at the deadline. There will be plenty of losses attained with zee German running the point

BUT agree the Celtics probably have the inside edge
 
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