Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

Eddie Jurak

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I like Kanter. In a limited role. If they money is cheap and its for the one year I am hearing, we could do worse in filling out a roster.

I'd take him over Thompson any day all things being considered.
Yes, this. And if perimeter D is improved over last time he was here (due to addition of Richardson and maybe Dunn and subtraction of Kemba), they can find good matchups for him.
 

tmracht

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I love cheering for Kanter off the court. Not always so much on the court, but for short money you could do worse.
 

nighthob

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There's also a universe where the Cs didn't trade for Kyrie, drafted Sexton as insurance to IT4 but IT4's unmet contracts demands blew up the locker room and a great 30 for 30 was made on that year's team in 2039.

It would have been super interesting to see how DA handled IT4 if he hadn't dealt him.
Sexton was the opposite of an Ainge high draft pick. Look at the physicals of the guys that Ainge drafted high and then compare them to Sexton. We know what the Cadavaliers did with the pick, but they’ve never been what anyone in their right mind would call competently run.
 

boca

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I love cheering for Kanter off the court. Not always so much on the court, but for short money you could do worse.
For the vet minimum maybe but it sounds like they're paying him more than that.
 

Auger34

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For the vet minimum maybe but it sounds like they're paying him more than that.
Brian Robb posted an article that said its the vet minimum or only slightly more.
It’s bad optics with the moves made previously but I can’t get too worked up over a minimum contract…they do need to sign another rotation player though. I think Danny Green would be a nice fit
 

nighthob

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This is kind of where I’m at as well. Most NBA observers had decided that Horford and Richardson were completely washed after their past two seasons, including posters here who saw them stink out the joint in Philly. Boston might be a better fit than either of their last two stops, but thinking they will magically turn around and be productive rotation guys requires a lot of optimism.
Horford actually played pretty well last year. So well that the Thunder sent him home because he was interfering in their Tank Battle 2021! game. Richardson is a limited combo guard who performs better when you let him do some point guard offense.

Defensively he wasn’t great in Dallas, but part of that may just have been that the Mavs are built around some pretty crappy defensive players and Richardson got stuck doing a lot of heavy lifting that he wasn’t equipped for. He’s a gamble here, but if Udoka can get him back on track offensively he should perform better defensively on a squad running out there with the JayCrew, Al, and Marcus.
 
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RedOctober3829

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Yeah, I’m not hitting the panic button or anything. I think there is more uncertainty but there still are multiple paths to relevancy. I will say this - we absolutely need to hit on Langford or Nesmith this year, for either a Beal trade or just for organic growth, as you said. This is a big development year for the team.
This is why I'm not too confident in this team's direction if/when they get a 3rd star. I don't have much confidence in the younger players besides Nesmith reaching their full potential. Langford's offensive game is so limited. TL shows such tantalizing potential, but he keeps getting hurt. Grant Williams' size hurts him immensely.
 

Cellar-Door

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If it's the minimum it's fine. I assume they'll cut Jabari, and Kanter is better than Jabari at being a post offensive player who can't stretch or handle PnR D.
 

scottyno

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The only 2 centers on the team that are any good are 6'8 and 6'9, one can't stay healthy and the other is 35. Kanter is a perfect fit really, you know he's going to be perfectly fine in the regular season when one of those guys gets hurt and he has to play 15-20 minutes a game for a stretch, and he's not going to complain about his role when both are (hopefully) healthy. And then in the playoffs he's a useful matchup play vs certain teams, particularly Philly.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Kanter is another good locker room veteran. If the theme of this year is getting the Jays into a better rhythm and style of play as they gel with Ime, having these guys around can't hurt.
 

luckiestman

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I’m a homer, granted, and I don’t get the hand wringing going on this year. Richardson, Smart, Brown, Tatum, TL is good

Romeo, Nesmith have good upside

Al is Al

Dunn, Pritchard, Kanter are NBA players

What’s the problem? This will be a good team and if we get Beal at deadline or next year, a great team. And if we don’t get Beal, someone else will take money to play next to Tatum. Cheer up guys, we have Jayson Tatum.
 

kazuneko

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My only problem with this line of thinking is that many posters here have said that Ainge wasn't bold enough with the assets he had, should have traded them earlier, etc. Then, when Ainge does make a bold move by trading a Brooklyn pick, he's criticized for it not working out. Fair enough, but similar warning flags have been raised by Anthony Davis, Kawhi, even Paul Pierce and Ray Allen back in the day. Young superstars that want to be traded should always raise a bit of a red flag, but in many times those red flags turn out to be a product of the situation they were in previously.
I think Kyrie's red flags were pretty clearly a lot more concerning. Davis was the standard case of an MVP level talent frustrated after years of losing; a scenario that has become pretty standard in this league. Kyrie is a lesser talent who -despite that- was unhappy and acting out on a team that very well could have won a championship. The only comparable I can think of is Kobe (when he demanded that the team break up his pairing with Shaq) but that situation was unique - as was Kobe's talent. The only think unique about Kyrie is his psychopathology.
Now I'm not saying that Ainge's trade for Irving was an obvious mistake. Ainge was a great GM and there was reason to be excited by the move at the time. That said, it pretty clearly didn't work out and one of the primary reasons for that was also one of the biggest concerns at the time: Kyrie's personality. It's also true that the concerns about trading a high pick in that draft also got a lot of attention; and that too, as it turns out, was well deserved. Remember, at the time of the trade the Nets had just completed a an NBA worst 20 win season. That pick ended up number 6 but it was expected to be much higher. While they eventually would have been able to pick Gilgeous-Alexander, at the time of the trade it felt more likely that Doncic or Ayton might have been available. It was a very valuable pick and we all knew it at the time. Just like many of us were clear that Kyrie's personality was a serious risk.
 

nighthob

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I think Kyrie's red flags were pretty clearly a lot more concerning. Davis was the standard case of an MVP level talent frustrated after years of losing; a scenario that has become pretty standard in this league. Kyrie is a lesser talent who -despite that- was unhappy and acting out on a team that very well could have won a championship. The only comparable I can think of is Kobe (when he demanded that the team break up his pairing with Shaq) but that situation was unique - as was Kobe's talent. The only think unique about Kyrie is his psychopathology.
Now I'm not saying that Ainge's trade for Irving was an obvious mistake. Ainge was a great GM and there was reason to be excited by the move at the time. That said, it pretty clearly didn't work out and one of the primary reasons for that was also one of the biggest concerns at the time: Kyrie's personality. It's also true that the concerns about trading a high pick in that draft also got a lot of attention; and that too, as it turns out, was well deserved. Remember, at the time of the trade the Nets had just completed a an NBA worst 20 win season. That pick ended up number 6 but it was expected to be much higher. While they eventually would have been able to pick Gilgeous-Alexander, at the time of the trade it felt more likely that Doncic or Ayton might have been available. It was a very valuable pick and we all knew it at the time. Just like many of us were clear that Kyrie's personality was a serious risk.
I was fine with the trade when it happened and even in retrospect. It was the right move at the time to push your chips into the middle of the table. Especially if the reward were Davis. But the minute that the Unibrower hired LeBron as his agent it was time to give up the dream and move on, including Kyrie. Irving was valuable insofar as he could help you recruit AD, there was no reason to put up with his antics otherwise. There was real value to the Nets in having Irving's cap hold, and they could have at least grabbed a couple of Brooklyn firsts for him (which was what Brooklyn paid to get rid of Crabbe anyway, so Crabbe and firsts for Irving would have worked).
 

lexrageorge

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I was fine with the trade when it happened and even in retrospect. It was the right move at the time to push your chips into the middle of the table. Especially if the reward were Davis. But the minute that the Unibrower hired LeBron as his agent it was time to give up the dream and move on, including Kyrie. Irving was valuable insofar as he could help you recruit AD, there was no reason to put up with his antics otherwise. There was real value to the Nets in having Irving's cap hold, and they could have at least grabbed a couple of Brooklyn firsts for him (which was what Brooklyn paid to get rid of Crabbe anyway, so Crabbe and firsts for Irving would have worked).
It certainly would have taken guts to trade a playoff team's best player for future assets. Strategically, it would have been the right move. But tactically, it would have been tough. Unclear if Wyc would have signed off on it, to be fair to Ainge. But Shank, Felger, and the rest of the mediots would have had a field day excoriating the front office.
 
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The Kanter signing is the final confirmation, if that were needed, that next season is a bridge year. Sure, Kanter is a defensive black hole that brings some offense and rebounding, replacing a bit of that which has been lost, but by most accounts his greatest value is his personality and positive locker room presence. Which is more than OK for the minimum. The goal seems to be twofold: clear as much salary space as possible for Beal, and to optimize the team environment to maximize development of Tatum and Brown (their preferred coach, solid defensive teammates that will defer offensively to them, good locker room).

They'll be a tougher defensive team and provide plenty of opportunity for one or more of TL/RL/AN to pop. Seems like a more productive approach than just spinning their wheels again and waiting for their two stars to get fed up with things.
 

bakahump

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Kyrie was "possibly" nuts when he was with Cleveland. IE he could be nuts and he could be fine.
An interesting Bet taken by Danny to assume that in a different environment where he was the LEADER he might be happy.
His first year in Boston he was a boy scout and the team was very successful. I suspect now with monday morning glasses because he was the undisputed alpha and was treated by management, press and fans as such.

His injury just before (or early) in the playoffs forced the team to "over achieve" and thrust guys from being role players on Kyries team to something much closer to an Ensemble. Tatum began to look like a force, Al a respected vet. Brown and Rozier potential devolping stars or strong starters etc etc.

While great from a team development perspective. Kyries ego could not take that. I believe he "missed" showing to watch a couple late run playoff games. (though I maybe misremembering). Showing the early cracks in his happiness.

Fast forward a year and the following season was all about Kyrie (trying to) exerting control with early "I am resigning" and late "Friction with teammates". When that failed, punctuated by a playoff collapse, Kyrie decided to go be THE (only) Alpha (or Beta) in Brooklyn.

All of which is now Ironic because......Brooklyn 3 some.

So while Kyrie is undoubtedly an ass and a arrogant prick, we where really a victim or our own success. Had Brown and Tatum been more akin to very good role players then Kyrie would have well been Happy to stay. Not sure if a "Good, happy Kyrie" and role player Browns and Tatums would have been enough to win 18 but there you go.

And please dont assume that I would have preferred Kyrie and Role Player Brown and Tatum to ALPHA (Capitols) Tatum and BETA (Capitols) Brown and whoever they can surround them with.
 

OurF'ingCity

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They'll be a tougher defensive team and provide plenty of opportunity for one or more of TL/RL/AN to pop. Seems like a more productive approach than just spinning their wheels again and waiting for their two stars to get fed up with things.
In some ways its actually kind of nice to have lower expectations. The past few seasons have seen the Celtics as clear favorites (or close) to win the conference and they have faltered to varying degrees. It’s nice to go in with expectations that this team likely isn’t much better than a 8-6 seed and be pleasantly surprised if they overperform.

And if they underperform, that at least makes it easier to clear cap space at the deadline, use a higher draft pick to facilitate a potential Beal trade (or to get complementary players for a Tatum/2nd All-Pro pairing, whether that be Beal or anyone else), etc.
 

EL Jeffe

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Hollinger's model valued Kanter at $11.5m, with the caveat he wouldn't touch that figure in real life. Hollinger figured he'd still see about half of that, but in reality it was a quarter. Counting and advanced stats tend to like Kanter, even if the eye test and the league's valuation don't.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hollinger's model valued Kanter at $11.5m, with the caveat he wouldn't touch that figure in real life. Hollinger figured he'd still see about half of that, but in reality it was a quarter. Counting and advanced stats tend to like Kanter, even if the eye test and the league's valuation don't.
That’s one heck of a model when your creator mocks you on the internet. RIP Model.
 

pjheff

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The Kanter signing is the final confirmation, if that were needed, that next season is a bridge year.
The Kanter signing is confirmation that it’s inefficient to spend $40M on bigs and that he can essentially replace Thompson’s production as a third center at the league minimum. Whether next season is a bridge year depends on if cap flexibility can be turned into a third pillar between now and the trade deadline.
 

lovegtm

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In some ways its actually kind of nice to have lower expectations. The past few seasons have seen the Celtics as clear favorites (or close) to win the conference and they have faltered to varying degrees. It’s nice to go in with expectations that this team likely isn’t much better than a 8-6 seed and be pleasantly surprised if they overperform.

And if they underperform, that at least makes it easier to clear cap space at the deadline, use a higher draft pick to facilitate a potential Beal trade (or to get complementary players for a Tatum/2nd All-Pro pairing, whether that be Beal or anyone else), etc.
People forget that the 2019-20 team was picked by most to be a 4-7 seed in the East. They ended up being really, really good (great point differential, almost certainly make the Finals with healthy GH and KW), but that was not the consensus opinion going into that season. The consensus was a lot closer to that of this coming year's team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If this is true and Beal helped recruit Dinwiddie to Washington, what does that say about him wanting to leave next year? Not good.
He could be just helping a buddy get paid knowing the Wizards had the need which would eliminate the chance Dinwiddie got left out of FA at the highest level.
 

Cellar-Door

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If this is true and Beal helped recruit Dinwiddie to Washington, what does that say about him wanting to leave next year? Not good.

View: https://twitter.com/CausewayPodcast/status/1423285237640015872
I think it likely means very little with regards to his FA choices. What it may indicate is that he's happy to give WAS a shot throughout this year rather than quietly let them know he'd like a trade.

My general read is Beal is gonna play out this year then is 50/50 to stay in WAS. I think BOS fans should prepare for the strong possibility a deeply disappointing 2022 FA period where we just re-sign Smart and TL and roll it over another year. Beal is the most likely guy to get but he's far from a sure thing. LaVine is probably going to extend, and the next best guy in that class is.... Terry Rozier?, Jonas Valanciunas?, Aaron Gordon?
 

pjheff

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I think it likely means very little with regards to his FA choices. What it may indicate is that he's happy to give WAS a shot throughout this year rather than quietly let them know he'd like a trade.

My general read is Beal is gonna play out this year then is 50/50 to stay in WAS. I think BOS fans should prepare for the strong possibility a deeply disappointing 2022 FA period where we just re-sign Smart and TL and roll it over another year. Beal is the most likely guy to get but he's far from a sure thing. LaVine is probably going to extend, and the next best guy in that class is.... Terry Rozier?, Jonas Valanciunas?, Aaron Gordon?
Cap space can be used to absorb any disgruntled star on the trade market, not just free agents, and there never seems to be a shortage of disgruntled stars.
 

Cellar-Door

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Cap space can be used to absorb any disgruntled star on the trade market, not just free agents, and there never seems to be a shortage of disgruntled stars.
Sure, maybe there will be one, though honestly taking a star into cap space is rare, usually you trade assets. Honestly if the Celtics are trading for a star they need to do it this year when they have all those attractive expiring deals (Richardson, Smart, etc.). Problem is, so far all of the unhappy stars close to FA have already gotten their moves.
 

cheech13

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If this is true and Beal helped recruit Dinwiddie to Washington, what does that say about him wanting to leave next year? Not good.

View: https://twitter.com/CausewayPodcast/status/1423285237640015872
I still think the most likely scenario is Beal signing the five-year 30% max contract next summer with the Wizards. If it doesn’t work out in the first year or two of the new deal he’ll request a trade then. Walking next summer as a FA just isn’t consistent with how he’s operated his whole career.
 

PedroKsBambino

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KAT is the other guy I think may become available---I get Russell is there, I get it may not happen but to me he is "on the radar" as a trade possibility.
 

pjheff

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Sure, maybe there will be one, though honestly taking a star into cap space is rare, usually you trade assets. Honestly if the Celtics are trading for a star they need to do it this year when they have all those attractive expiring deals (Richardson, Smart, etc.). Problem is, so far all of the unhappy stars close to FA have already gotten their moves.
You don’t need the expiring deals if you have cap space. The assets returned would be young players / picks.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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The more time that passes, the more I resign myself to justifying the moves Brad makes. He wasn’t kidding when he spoke about creating flexibility after taking over for Ainge, and what I like the most about this actually has very little to do with Beal. Keeping max space open means they can do just about whatever they want. A lot changes between now and the deadline next season, saying nothing about Beal or Lavine in the 2022 FA period, and they’re in position to pick up anyone who may become available.
 

lexrageorge

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The more time that passes, the more I resign myself to justifying the moves Brad makes. He wasn’t kidding when he spoke about creating flexibility after taking over for Ainge, and what I like the most about this actually has very little to do with Beal. Keeping max space open means they can do just about whatever they want. A lot changes between now and the deadline next season, saying nothing about Beal or Lavine in the 2022 FA period, and they’re in position to pick up anyone who may become available.
Agreed. I don't think Stevens is doing this for the 2023 or 2024 free agent season. He clearly has in mind doing something next offseason, or at the deadline the upcoming season. Players always become available via trade, and there will be quite a few decent targets available by the time next season comes around. I doubt Julius Randle was on Stevens' radar screen, nor was there really any chance of Randle leaving NY anyway. Neither was Rudy Gay.
 

Auger34

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Sure, maybe there will be one, though honestly taking a star into cap space is rare, usually you trade assets. Honestly if the Celtics are trading for a star they need to do it this year when they have all those attractive expiring deals (Richardson, Smart, etc.). Problem is, so far all of the unhappy stars close to FA have already gotten their moves.
Yeah, the issue is that if they need to trade for a star the Celtics don’t have a ton of great assets and in the open market will probably get outbid.

Beal is such a popular name because people think he could force himself here to play with Tatum and the lack of assets won’t be a big deal.

It’s not Beal or bust but I think it’s very fair to say Beal/LaVine or we are in some trouble and the clock on The Jays starts ticking
 

DJnVa

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If this is true and Beal helped recruit Dinwiddie to Washington, what does that say about him wanting to leave next year? Not good.

View: https://twitter.com/CausewayPodcast/status/1423285237640015872
Beal still knows he likely is playing out this season. Whether or not he wants to move doesn't mean he doesn't want to play with certain guys this year.

And, this isn't directed at you @RedOctober3829 but it's funny how, in this forum, Tatum signs a deal in Boston, but some folks think he might force his way out, whereas Beal gets a buddy signed in DC, so he of course wants to stay.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I haven't seen anyone say Tatum is forcing his way out - I made the point that its a legitimate tail risk if the Celtics don't manage him properly. We have no evidence that this is happening and Tatum asking for a trade near-term isn't my base case.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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In 2014 LeBron forced Miami to draft Shab Napier then opted out to go to Cleveland. I think it is overblown.
 

DJnVa

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I haven't seen anyone say Tatum is forcing his way out - I made the point that its a legitimate tail risk if the Celtics don't manage him properly. We have no evidence that this is happening and Tatum asking for a trade near-term isn't my base case.
I didn't say you and I didn't say he was forcing his way out. I said people think he might.
 

Rustjive

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I still think the most likely scenario is Beal signing the five-year 30% max contract next summer with the Wizards. If it doesn’t work out in the first year or two of the new deal he’ll request a trade then. Walking next summer as a FA just isn’t consistent with how he’s operated his whole career.
Beal's a 10-year vet after next year, so it's 35% from anyone. Differences are 8% raises from Bird rights vs 5% and the extra year. That might seem like a lot to give up, signing in another place, but there are many ways for him to get nearly as much if not a lot more. If he opts-in before the trade then signs a 5 year max after that year ends, he makes more and gets an extra year. He could also choose to follow the exact path of Jimmy Butler, who was in the same situation but 1 year older - sign-and-trade to Miami for 3+1, then extend after year 2 for the 4 year, 8% raise max. In that case, Beal's total deal would be something like 7/341 (so if you then compare that to Washington's offer, it would be 2/100 for his age 34/35 seasons).

WRT to his plans I think the most eye-opening thing for the Wizards and their fans was Beal not operating as usual when he was asked point blank back in June about his future and didn't want to say either way:

Asked Wednesday about his intentions entering a contract year with the Wizards — he will be a free agent in 2022 — the 27-year-old said he had not yet thought about the years to come.

“We’re not even going to think about that or even talk about it right now,” Beal said.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I didn't say you and I didn't say he was forcing his way out. I said people think he might.
Oh I know - I was just clarifying that I was the person who introduced the concept. It feels like the vast majority of posters here aren't concerned about Tatum demanding to be moved at all - at least not now.

That said - and all we really have are tea leaves to read here - if you judge the Celtics by their actions, especially after last season, they appear to feel confident in their new direction. As others have noted, one of the remarkable things about the "new" regime is that when they want to do something, like hiring Udoka or making a trade, they move pretty quickly. So while their plan may not be obvious to fans, it feels like they have one and that their key players are onboard.
 

RedOctober3829

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Beal still knows he likely is playing out this season. Whether or not he wants to move doesn't mean he doesn't want to play with certain guys this year.

And, this isn't directed at you @RedOctober3829 but it's funny how, in this forum, Tatum signs a deal in Boston, but some folks think he might force his way out, whereas Beal gets a buddy signed in DC, so he of course wants to stay.
Yeah certainly I haven't said Tatum is going to force his way out. That sounds like a sports radio hot take. All I was trying to get across is that if he's actually recruiting guys to come to Washington, then it's not some foregone conclusion he's going to want out of there. In fact, all I've heard from people who know him is that he's extremely loyal to Washington.
 

Cellar-Door

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You don’t need the expiring deals if you have cap space. The assets returned would be young players / picks.
Yeah, you're missing the point. To trade for a player into cap space you need the cap space, so you need the trade to happen during FA, and you have to dump just about everybody on the roster .
If you trade in season you can send out the expirings, and since we have to let go WAY more money to get max cap space then to match a max in a trade, you keep more assets.

Using Beal as an example:
You could trade for Beal using Smart's expiring, Dunn's expiring and Richardson's expiring.
That takes you into next season with the potential to re-sign TL, Romeo, Pritchard, Nesmith, Grant and the option to bring back Kanter, whoever they sign for the 15th spot, etc.

If you need to clear cap space for a trade you lose Smart, Richardson, have to cut Horford and Grant, renounce Kanter and the 15th spot, etc.

The idea trade is you move Horford in the deal with Smart (or less likely Richardson), allowing you to also bring back the other (or S&T him)
 

NomarsFool

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It's quite the game of chicken, then, isn't it? Assuming Beal wants to come here, if they don't agree on a midseason trade, both the Celtics and Wizards get screwed. The Wizards get nothing, and the Celtics lose some useful pieces.
 

bakahump

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Good way to put it. But I would rather lose some "useful pieces" then "Get nothing". So its kind like playing chicken with a convertible when you have a Dump truck (or at least a large SUV).

So it still behooves Washington to make a deal in season (assuming Beal pushes the idea).
 

Cellar-Door

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Good way to put it. But I would rather lose some "useful pieces" then "Get nothing". So its kind like playing chicken with a convertible when you have a Dump truck (or at least a large SUV).

So it still behooves Washington to make a deal in season (assuming Beal pushes the idea).
Seems unlikely WAS actually gets nothing. There wouldn't be much reason for the Celtics not to make a S&T come summer if it came down to it, would be a significant benefit to both teams. BOS isn't a contender if they strip down to actually sign Beal, would be at least a year or two from having a deep enough roster, getting to keep some of those guys would be huge. For WAS, they can get something decent out of it, whether it's a S&T for one of BOS's guys, or just facilitating Beal for picks/youth in a 3 way deal with whoever signs Smart (or TImelord). Also they might eat Horford's deal (saving the Celtics the $14.5M buyout) for a 1st if they know Beal wants to be there.

WAS should 100% not even consider trading Beal in season unless he tells them definitively he won't re-sign. He's not shown a whole lot of push to go elsewhere, they can offer the most money, and if all else fails they are well positioned to recoup something in S&T.