Celtics-Raptors 2nd Round--Dethrone the Champs

bigq

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Nurse strikes me as a habitual line stepper, to quote Charlie Murphy, and its working for him. That said, even Tatum acknowledged that it was his mistake. By definition, a player wasn't supposed to be there (if they were, this discussion would be moot) so Tatum blindly chucking a pass to a guy in the corner isn't how things are supposed to go either.

In order of culpability, I would argue Tatum tops the list, followed by the officials who should have been all over Nurse. I can't be mad at Nurse - if he gets away with it, why shouldn't he keep doing it? I am all for any edge that helps my team including exploiting lax enforcement of rules.
I support pushing boundaries as long as it works in favor of the team I’m rooting for. ;)

I do think that if it was CBS pulling that move I would find it annoying but you are absolutely right that if the refs and the league are not calling him out (and it seems the rule for this specific issue is very loosely defined) why wouldn’t he keep doing it?
 
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DJnVa

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I have ZERO doubt Smart runs into Nurse tomorrow if this situation comes up. None.
 

dhellers

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I have ZERO doubt Smart runs into Nurse tomorrow if this situation comes up. None.
How about the strategy from the Longest Yard -- if he is standing where he ain't supposed to be, and you can deal with a turnover, fire a REAL HARD PASS right into his midsection.
Gosh, he sure looked like one of my teammates!
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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So if he gets away with it, he's ok. If he doesn't get away with it, he's wrong. Seems like your opinion of him is based on the results not the actions?
Apologies - I was unclear. I am all for competitors pushing boundaries as much as possible. Its up to the officials to enforce the rules.

Nurse isn't wrong in either case - if they start enforcing the rule and he keeps getting penalized for it then he is clearly offside. But until then, kudos to him for finding an effective arb.
 

DGreenwood

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Is anyone else relaxed and confident about game 7? I am, and that's not in my nature. I don't remember ever being this confident about an elimination game for any of the major Boston sports teams.

I think I just really love this team. Tatum, Smart, Kemba, JB, and Theis is a group of guys I'd take into battle. They're the better team and they have the right makeup for this. I can't wait for tomorrow.
 
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saintnick912

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One thing I'll say about the end of the game, if you're going to dribble down to the last few seconds then drive, have a plan to make a shot and don't count on a whistle that late. Annoyed me when they called it for Pierce and annoyed me last night. Especially with how cold Kemba was all game.

Of course the Raptors got a whistle on a 50/50 ball immediately after so what do I know.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They don’t announce refs until the day of each game so not sure where you got that info from.
The official announcement is the morning of the game but there are surely leaks since it isn’t considered to be top secret informational

The reports from NBA App was that Foster, Zachary Zarba, David Guthrie and Tre Maddox would be doing the game. We’ll know how accurate this is in about 7 hours.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Apologies - I was unclear. I am all for competitors pushing boundaries as much as possible. Its up to the officials to enforce the rules.

Nurse isn't wrong in either case - if they start enforcing the rule and he keeps getting penalized for it then he is clearly offside. But until then, kudos to him for finding an effective arb.
I could maybe buy this about a player, but about a coach physically involving himself in live action? NFW. The NBA game isn’t made better by Nurse’s antics.
 

NoXInNixon

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One thing I'll say about the end of the game, if you're going to dribble down to the last few seconds then drive, have a plan to make a shot and don't count on a whistle that late. Annoyed me when they called it for Pierce and annoyed me last night. Especially with how cold Kemba was all game.

Of course the Raptors got a whistle on a 50/50 ball immediately after so what do I know.
If he didn't get fouled, he would have made the layup. Not much else Kemba could have done.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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If a scenario happens like that last Nurse/Jaylen screencap in post #439 and Jaylen does not have the ball, I'd love to see an exaggerated step back to Nurse's ankle to start his sprint towards the basket to crash the boards. Players do that step back out of bounds with the ball all the time, so he has some defense for contacting the coach.

This isn't a crowded 4' wide sideline with courtside seats, there is like 10-15 feet of room to roam! F that guy.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Remember that the NBA is able to retroactively assess flagrant fouls. They did it a couple days ago on an Anthony Davis play. The fact that they have chosen not to do so on the dangerous and obviously intentional Kyle Lowry undercut of Jaylen speaks volumes.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The official announcement is the morning of the game but there are surely leaks since it isn’t considered to be top secret informational

The reports from NBA App was that Foster, Zachary Zarba, David Guthrie and Tre Maddox would be doing the game. We’ll know how accurate this is in about 7 hours.
Confirmed per the NBA officiating site.

Anyone know if Foster tends to take or lay the points?
 

PedroKsBambino

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I know that different of us have different views on the utility of pre-and-in-game lobbying on officating.

I am disappointed Ainge has not engaged publicly in it these last two days. I think the Celtics can only lose this game if they have another uneven playing field, and Ainge being very public about the scewjob in game 6 is one of the best ways to innoculate them from this for game 7.

Some will disagree, and I hope they are proven correct. But the media only lightly picked up the true narrative of the end of the game and I think the Celtics would have a better chance to win tonight if they had more actively engaged.

What might that look like? I think Ainge giving an interview after the 2 minute report came out that roughly included a line like "the NBA acknowledged in the 2 minute report that as a practical matter game 6 was determined by two refereeing mistakes, each of which benefitted the Raptors. We have great respect for the refs and how difficult their job is. We know they try their best every night. We look forward to the NBA and the referees ensuring a level playing field for game 7 and we do not expect a repeat of the mistakes that denied us the series win we earned in game 6"

If asked about Nurse and the sidelines I wish Ainge would say something like "We've spoken to the NBA about both the competitive and player safety implications of a coach coming onto the court during play. The NBA has reinforced our understanding of where a coach is allowed to be, and we've shared very clear video with the NBA of where Nick Nurse actually was in Game 6. We have great respect for Coach Nurse and are confident he doesn't want to jeopardize player safety, and also that the NBA and the officials will ensure that there are no violations--intentional or accidental-- by a coach during Gmae 7"
 
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The Social Chair

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The NBA is feeling itself. Foster on the Celtics game, and Marc Davis & Tony Brothers on the clippers/nuggets game.
 

bsj

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I want to believe that the league will at the very least let this game go without slant in light of the publicly announced screwjob the Celtics dealt with
 

bankshot1

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I don't follow the NBA ref conspiracy theory too closely, or know team records against specific refs, but who would be

1-The Celtics choice for lead ref game 7
2-Celtic fans choice

same 1, 2 from a Raptor perspective
 

the moops

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Remember that the NBA is able to retroactively assess flagrant fouls. They did it a couple days ago on an Anthony Davis play. The fact that they have chosen not to do so on the dangerous and obviously intentional Kyle Lowry undercut of Jaylen speaks volumes.
That shouldn't be a flagrant on AD. That is dumb
 

Kliq

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As frustrating as Wednesday was, I don't particularly like complaining about the refs. Can people clear something up for me? When there are complaints about the refs, or Scott Foster reffing a game, or the game being slanted, or anything like that, do people believe either:

A) The league or the referees themselves are purposefully calling a game to one team's advantage in order to generate a certain outcome (such as the league wanting a series to go seven games, favoring a certain team to advance for marketing reasons, or referees being paid off/working with gamblers to ensure a certain team wins).

or

B) The referees are just generally incompetent and any perceived maliciousness against a particular team is just an effect of the refs not being able to do their job properly.
 

DJnVa

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As frustrating as Wednesday was, I don't particularly like complaining about the refs. Can people clear something up for me? When there are complaints about the refs, or Scott Foster reffing a game, or the game being slanted, or anything like that, do people believe either:

A) The league or the referees themselves are purposefully calling a game to one team's advantage in order to generate a certain outcome (such as the league wanting a series to go seven games, favoring a certain team to advance for marketing reasons, or referees being paid off/working with gamblers to ensure a certain team wins).

or

B) The referees are just generally incompetent and any perceived maliciousness against a particular team is just an effect of the refs not being able to do their job properly.

I'm more B, but when a team has a record of 3-13 with one official that seems....off somehow.
 

bakahump

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They have the ability to use Replay! I mean making a bad call that was heat of the momement is one thing. They are going to screw up some. ...but the replay errors are atrocious and leads to speculation.
 

jezza1918

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As frustrating as Wednesday was, I don't particularly like complaining about the refs. Can people clear something up for me? When there are complaints about the refs, or Scott Foster reffing a game, or the game being slanted, or anything like that, do people believe either:

A) The league or the referees themselves are purposefully calling a game to one team's advantage in order to generate a certain outcome (such as the league wanting a series to go seven games, favoring a certain team to advance for marketing reasons, or referees being paid off/working with gamblers to ensure a certain team wins).

or

B) The referees are just generally incompetent and any perceived maliciousness against a particular team is just an effect of the refs not being able to do their job properly.
Im pretty much quoting what I wrote yesterday, but forever I have argued "B". BUT going into game 6 the Celtics were 3-12 in games reffed by Brothers and the Raptors were 13-2. So I ask myself - A. Are those records coincidences? and B. Was it a coincidence that Brothers was assigned last nights game? I really wish the answer to both of those was "yes...they are simply coincidences." But after seeing how the game played out I am really no longer sure. I do however believe the players have far and away the most to say when it comes to deciding the outcome of a game; but it really looked like Brothers & his crew were trying their best to have more of a say in the outcome than is natural.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm more B, but when a team has a record of 3-13 with one official that seems....off somehow.
Yeah. Especially a really good team like the Celtics. If those figures are correct, the Celtics went 45-11 with non-Brothers officials.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah. Especially a really good team like the Celtics. If those figures are correct, the Celtics went 45-11 with non-Brothers officials.
I'm not expecting others to do the work, but I would think it's more likely that those records amount to something if there weren't other strange ref-team record combos.
 

BigSoxFan

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I'm not expecting others to do the work, but I would think it's more likely that those records amount to something if there weren't other strange ref-team record combos.
Yup. It 100% needs some context. But refs are humans and we all have bias, some conscious and some unconscious. We know Joey Crawford had it out for Duncan. Are there other situations? Kemba needs to go for 55 tonight so I don’t need to contemplate this.
 

bankshot1

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What are the statistical probablities that the Celts, a team that played 48-24 (.667 ) in the regular season, would win just 3 of 16 games (.187) under a specific ref.

I'm not a statisitician, but I'm assuming the probablities are pretty fucking low.
 

wilked

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What are the statistical probablities that the Celts, a team that played 48-24 (.667 ) in the regular season, would win just 3 of 16 games (.187) under a specific ref.

I'm not a statisitician, but I'm assuming the probablities are pretty fucking low.
I ran a quick simulator

If the true odds of a win is 0.667, the odds of going 3-13 is about 12 out of 100,000.
 

joe dokes

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What are the statistical probablities that the Celts, a team that played 48-24 (.667 ) in the regular season, would win just 3 of 16 games (.187) under a specific ref.

I'm not a statisitician, but I'm assuming the probablities are pretty fucking low.
I would think that blowouts in either direction would have to be discounted. And does the presence of two other officials with Brothers (but not always the same 2) make the probabilities higher or lower?
 

tims4wins

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You guys the 3-13 record is over a lot longer timeframe than this year. He only refs 45-60 games per year. 1/4 of them aren't Celts games.
 

BigSoxFan

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You guys the 3-13 record is over a lot longer timeframe than this year. He only refs 45-60 games per year. 1/4 of them aren't Celts games.
Does that really change things much? The Celtics have been consistently good for years now. Still a weird anomaly if this stretches back a few years, even if less statistically significant.
 

riboflav

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Jesus guys get a grip. Brothers has not officiated 16 Celts games this year. Do the research first before spouting off nonsense.
 

bankshot1

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I ran a quick simulator

If the true odds of a win is 0.667, the odds of going 3-13 is about 12 out of 100,000.
Thanks-so assuming both universes of games are similiar in nature (ie the same proporion of strong and weak opponents, no other distinguishing factors, major injuries etc.) with a large enough universes to compare, its near impossible for a .667 team to play .187 ball.
 

riboflav

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Does that really change things much? The Celtics have been consistently good for years now. Still a weird anomaly if this stretches back a few years, even if less statistically significant.
They're playoff games! Stevens has a sub 500 record in the playoffs! Show us the bias with math.
 

tims4wins

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Previous loss with Brothers was game 2 Milwaukee last year - 20 point drubbing. Going back through Celts playoff history now
 

wilked

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First of all, chill out. I’m not claiming bias. Secondly, I didn’t know they were playoff games.
Same here, I'm just playing with numbers.

If you drop it to 50/50 odds for a win, odds of a 3-13 stretch is about 1000 out of 100,000 (100:1 odds)

But yes, you'd need to go more detailed for an actual analysis
 

BigSoxFan

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Same here, I'm just playing with numbers.

If you drop it to 50/50 odds for a win, odds of a 3-13 stretch is about 1000 out of 100,000 (100:1 odds)

But yes, you'd need to go more detailed for an actual analysis
Yeah, maybe it’s just weighted heavily towards tough matchups and/or road games. It’s strange on the surface but obviously not conclusive in any way.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, maybe it’s just weighted heavily towards tough matchups and/or road games. It’s strange on the surface but obviously not conclusive in any way.
One would hope that someday there will an industry out there that has the job of providing context to things and publishing that info.
 

benhogan

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As long as the coach stays between the substitution box and the baseline, he's OK. That (I assume) does not include the actual court, although coaches seem to get away with that.

The rule excerpt that governs here is pretty squeezy:

"Any club personnel not seated on the bench must conduct themselves in a manner that would reflect favorably on the dignity of the game and the officials. Violations by any of the personnel indicated shall require a written report to the League Office for subsequent action."
I wish there was some sort of 6-foot rule, where the coach/bench had to make an effort to distance themselves from the opposing players. Maybe a warning (like the delay of game) the first time the coach/bench does this inadvertently.

When Tatum threw that pass I knew something was odd since it wasn't close to Theis.
 

JCizzle

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Even the Globe is calling for Stevens to work the refs harder, which I think is (unfortunately) part of being a modern coach. Even icons like Coach K do it constantly, so it's not just an NBA thing.


Spot-on column from @GwashburnGlobe includes this detail from when Jaylen Brown was at the line late in the first OT: "One Raptors coach or player resorted to using a Little League tactic of saying, “Hey batter batter. Hey batter batter. Swing!"
https://t.co/eyMazKX1JL?amp=1

Toronto coach Nick Nurse seemingly gets four reviews per game instead of the maximum one but he has been effective in his challenges. Nurse challenged what appeared to be an obvious foul call on OG Anunoby on Celtics center Daniel Theis under the basket with the Celtics leading, 110-108, with 3:07 left in the second overtime.
The Celtics have proven to be the more talented team, but the Raptors have received most of the breaks, which is why this series is tied. Nurse realizes he is facing a team with more offensive potency and versatility and he’s going to fight for every call. Stevens doesn’t have to change his ways, but he does have to understand that this is a situation where he has to use all of his tactics and fight for advantages and edges.

If not, the Celtics will lose and be sent home with the utmost class.
Oomph.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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Even the Globe is calling for Stevens to work the refs harder, which I think is (unfortunately) part of being a modern coach. Even icons like Coach K do it constantly, so it's not just an NBA thing.


Spot-on column from @GwashburnGlobe includes this detail from when Jaylen Brown was at the line late in the first OT: "One Raptors coach or player resorted to using a Little League tactic of saying, “Hey batter batter. Hey batter batter. Swing!"
https://t.co/eyMazKX1JL?amp=1







Oomph.
Hey batter batter? Are you shitting me?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Im pretty much quoting what I wrote yesterday, but forever I have argued "B". BUT going into game 6 the Celtics were 3-12 in games reffed by Brothers and the Raptors were 13-2. So I ask myself - A. Are those records coincidences? and B. Was it a coincidence that Brothers was assigned last nights game? I really wish the answer to both of those was "yes...they are simply coincidences." But after seeing how the game played out I am really no longer sure. I do however believe the players have far and away the most to say when it comes to deciding the outcome of a game; but it really looked like Brothers & his crew were trying their best to have more of a say in the outcome than is natural.
We can do a lot of math, as people have suggested. Since Brothers has been reffing for 25 years and the Celtics record over that time in aggregate is .517 (1072-1001) and the Raptors aggregate (reflecting one less year since franchise founded in 1995) is .479 (955-1037), we are almost surely going to find at the end of that math that the 3-12, 13-2 disparity is highly unlikely statistically.
 

jezza1918

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We can do a lot of math, as people have suggested. Since Brothers has been reffing for 25 years and the Celtics record over that time in aggregate is .517 (1072-1001) and the Raptors aggregate (reflecting one less year since franchise founded in 1995) is .479 (955-1037), we are almost surely going to find at the end of that math that the 3-12, 13-2 disparity is highly unlikely statistically.
This is all fair...I did miss one crucial word in my post (which has been covered in others). But the last 15 games stats referenced PLAYOFF games only. Veering away from the math, I still think my last point stands - I think the refs had FAR too much to say in the outcome of this specific game. From a larger perspective, the sports I follow the most - NFL, NHL, NBA, Tennis - are all affected on some level by refs. It just seems like NBA games are routinely affected to a larger degree than the others, and it makes me question why it took me two benadryls to fall asleep after game 6. And I know, that's a "me" problem.

edit: and part of my perspective is definitely the result of constant NBA convos with a cousin who is a (very) minority stakeholder in an NBA franchise...so I admit some bias here.
 

tims4wins

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Here's the full Brothers log:
2020: 1-1 (game 2 102-99 win vs. Raptors; game 6 125-122 loss vs. Raptors)
2019: 1-1 (game 2 home win vs. Indy, 99-91; game 2 road loss at Milwaukee, 123-103
2018: 0-2 (game 6 road loss at Milwaukee 97-86; game 4 road loss at Philly [up 3-0 in series) 103-92)
2017: 0-2 (game 6 102-101 road loss at Washington; game 2 130-86 home loss vs. Cavs)
2016: 0-2 (game 2 89-72 road loss at Atlanta; game 6 104-92 home loss vs. Atlanta)
2015: 0-1 (game 4 101-93 home loss vs. Cavs)
2012: 2-1 (game 4 101-79 home win vs. Atlanta; game 7 85-75 home win vs. Sixers; game 6 home loss vs. Heat 98-79)
2011: 0-1 (game 4 98-90 home loss vs. Heat)
2008: 2-0 (game 5 96-89 home win vs. Cavs; game 6 89-81 win at Detroit)
2003: 0-1 (game 2 89-77 loss at Pacers)

So that's 6 wins, so the 3-13 stat I don't think is even correct...

6-12 so far, nothing crazy out of the ordinary. So far this seems more circumstantial than anything. Last year they got crushed all series after game 1. In 2018, pair of road losses. 2017, a close road loss in a series the Celts won (so that one may jump out a bit, although quick glance showed 19 fouls on the Celts vs 24 on the Wiz), then a blowout at home to the superior Cavs. In 2016 they lost the series 4-2 to Atlanta, Brothers did 2 of those games, potentially curious. And in 2015 the Celts were swept.

I'm going to keep adding to this. So far the losses are pretty much all road blowout losses
 
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PedroKsBambino

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Officiating aside, there are lots of complaints about how certain players aren't "showing up" or that coaches aren't making adjustments. This quick two minute video by Bob Myers should address some of those complaints.

View: https://twitter.com/MrMichaelLee/status/1304454215125872641?s=20
That's a great video.

It also could be talking about the Milwaukee Bucks, couldn't it? Giannis, to some degree, is not quite a one-trick pony but once you build the wall he's not an apex guy anymore. And a bunch of the supporting guys are closer to one-trick ponies.