What’s odd to me is that he started out on fire with a ton of energy in the first half.. even dunking over TL and flexing.. then completely wilted and became invisible
Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion
- Thread starter tims4wins
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Yeah, I think at this point the Heat are out of options on offense and the Celtics defense is so strong that even when they play a half with a million turnovers, give up a ton of offensive rebounds, and shoot like crap from three, they are just one competent stretch away from turning the game into a route.
Miami's path to success to me has got to be just hoping Strus and Robinson can shoot much better from three, along with Vincent, Martin and Oladipo.
Part of the reason they’re getting outrebou dee is because the Heat are putting up a ton of absolute bricks and shooting a worse percentage in general… I guess all of the rest could all happen all at the same time, but this team has a lot of next man up in them.. it’s not just one guy, every night it seems someone besides Tatum or Brown is stepping up.
That’s why I’m not worried if it’s the same lineup as these guys haven’t gotten clean looks all series when Herro is out of the lineup. They have no threats with the ball on the perimeter so our defenders can keep overplaying the 3-pt shot.
Not seeing Butler on the injury list is a pretty big surprise, I think. If he's not hurt then he's been choking pretty hard the last few games. 25% from the field and 9 ppg over the last 3 games? Beyond ugly.
And you could worry about miami going m-1 for m from 3 (like quarter 3 of game 1?).
I am hoping Ime is pounding these possibilities into the celtics players heads. The odds might be against these happening, but bad outcomes in pro sports have a funny way of occurring when one coasts to the finish line.
That said: I still revel in game 6 vs the lakers. It was nice being able to party for a full quarter. In contrast: the pats, for all their glory, had a way of not just putting it away!
(Sox
Don't ever forget that DJ made that shot with no time to spare.
I don't think anyone on the celts 80s coud match DJ's clutch-time ice water in his veins.
I don’t buy that his legs aren’t shot right now, but I guess that’s not an injury.
Two members, one strawman.
Never said we had an impact. Just pointing out the absurdity of 2 pages where people are talking about the layoff before the finals and the matchup against Golden State. If Miami wins tomorrow night, all bets are off.
What else is there to discuss about this series after a game in which the C’s yet again looked like the markedly superior team and needing just one win in two to advance? The matchups and injury dynamic have been analyzed to death, and Spo has played all the cards in his strategic deck.
Only natural to look ahead at the likely opponent, unless there is gonna be dead air for the next several days. Folks are excited and engaged, but nobody is declaring victory.
I'm old enough to have seen the big three.. McHale, Parish and Bird play in the old Boston Garden in an obstructed seat as I recall. It was the only Celtics game I saw live as a kid I believe.. my Dad took me and he wasn't/isn't really a basketball fan. The Celts played the Sixers and Charles Barkley had a quiet 34 points or something like that. Not exactly sure what year that was.. but I also have vague memories of listening to the finals on the radio in the car with my family as well. I used to listen to the Celtics on the radio all the time with Johnny Most.. back in the day when the Celtics rarely, if ever, lost two in a row. All that to say I'm sort of old I guess.
Oh, JT will get there, for sure. And probably well beyond 105. I just wasn’t sure Finals MVP Iguodala was the right choice for their “Sixers suck” graphic.
I have no strawman - you were accusing us of chicken counting and I was pointing out that's not my perception of the discussion.
The other point is, even if we were, so be it. We will be the ones crying if your nightmare scenario comes true.
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LOL That Riley twitter guy has a major crush on Tatum. So Brown and
Last year we were up 5 around 45 seconds left, other team had the ball, a kid on my team snifsd out the OOB play steals it goes coast to coast for an and 1. He makes the free throw other team calls TO to advance ball, but now its 8, 37 seconds left. Amosnst the high fives as we come in for our timeout the kid who stole the ball said "Just don't let Isiah throw it in boys!" Few times do you let yourself be proud of your coaching, but I was proud dammit.
LOL That Riley twitter guy has a major crush on Tatum. So Brown and
This play became part of my peer group (players at the time, now many coaches) vernacular. "Unless Isiah is throwing it in..." is code for the game being over.
Last year we were up 5 around 45 seconds left, other team had the ball, a kid on my team snifsd out the OOB play steals it goes coast to coast for an and 1. He makes the free throw other team calls TO to advance ball, but now its 8, 37 seconds left. Amosnst the high fives as we come in for our timeout the kid who stole the ball said "Just don't let Isiah throw it in boys!" Few times do you let yourself be proud of your coaching, but I was proud dammit.
And if your nightmare scenario comes true, you may lose all your friends.
A banner would be worth it.
Also...that's the straw man. Never implied what we posted had bearings on the game.
Nothing like arguing semantics instead of dreaming of a title. So glad we could have this diversion to humble us into a …. Wait what was the objective?
Can we get back to actually enjoying this run? Thanks.
Can we get back to actually enjoying this run? Thanks.
Just want to confirm:
Discussing current reality is arguing semantics, and we should get back to discussing the current Celtics/Warriors finals matchup?
My bad. I thought in the "Celtics vs Heat, Round 3" thread, it may make sense to discuss the Celtics Vs Heat series.
Sorry. Didn't realize that mentioning that the series isn't over was destroying your ability to "dream for a title."
Do me a favor. Since this thread is old and no longer relevant - as the Celtics are in the finals - can you create the new finals thread and discuss their matchup with the Warriors there? I was interested in discussing their last series matchup with the Heat. You know. In the, "Celtics Vs Heat, round 3 discussion" thread.
Again. Apologies for pointing out that the series isn't over yet.
I would be absolutely shocked. As would most of the NBA. And Las Vegas oddsmakers (Celts -8.5). I don’t there is anything wrong with saying that. The Warmth are banged up and are the lesser team. The Celtics will close this out tomorrow night rather easily I think.
Absolutely shocked?
8.5 point favorites win 75% of the time. That isn't "absolutely shocking."
This entire post is so ridiculously tedious.
Edit: I should have said “unnecessarily”.
That video on the adjustments is great, thanks for posting. Udoka and staff continue to impress with their counters.
It will be interesting to see what the Heat do to respond. Its not like they are going to abandon their defensive scheme but maybe they gamble a bit more on certain players depending on the action. Cs have to do better converting their open looks. Per that YT clip, they are at 29% on open or wide open threes for the series.
They must do better. /Mark Jackson
It will be interesting to see what the Heat do to respond. Its not like they are going to abandon their defensive scheme but maybe they gamble a bit more on certain players depending on the action. Cs have to do better converting their open looks. Per that YT clip, they are at 29% on open or wide open threes for the series.
They must do better. /Mark Jackson
I agree. Miami is banged up, but they are still a very good team and the #1 seed for a reason. Herro is overrated and while his offense would be helpful it doesn't move the needle that much.
Smart is unlikely to be full strength and Rob's health is still a wildcard. The Tatum neck/shoulder thing is a bit concerning as well. The Celts are obviously favored for a reason, but a Miami winning Game 6 is entirely possible. A 1 in 4 shot sounds about right, and that's not remotely close to a "shocking" range.
Here are Keith Smith's 10 takeaways from Game 5
https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/5/26/23143047/a-microcosm-game-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-miami-heat-game-5
https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/5/26/23143047/a-microcosm-game-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-miami-heat-game-5
Wrt the bolded: yes, and the "reason" is that it took the Celtics half a season to get things together, and Milwaukee chilled/had injuries.
They're a 52 win team, and would have been tied for 4th in the West. That's nice, but there was no real separation between them and the next 3 teams in the conference.
Cs can't and won't take anything for granted, and the series is not over by means. But the Heat's #1 seed is pretty meaningless apart from their having homecourt if it comes to game 7.
I don't think anyone was terrified of the 2016-17 Celtics, who also had the #1 seed for a reason.
I’d be absolutely shocked if the Celtics lost this game. Sorry you disagree with that.
Anything can happen - we saw as recently as game 5 that the Celtics are still turnover prone and not great at controlling the glass in their defensive zone.
But.
The Celtics are younger, bigger, more athletic, as so more capable of winning the battle of attrition that the series has become.
Their mission is the same as it was in game 5: don't turn it over so much, get back on defense, box out. There is room for improvement in all of those things over their game 5 performance.
Miami's best shot is Herro coming back and being great.
This video is exceptionally good and as someone who does not really 'see' basketball in a sophisticated way, it was really eye opening.
It also made me feel much better about my anxiety that the game 3 Heat defense might return. It is funny, I've watched every second of this series and what is sort of revealed here about the Heat's defensive strategy was something that I simply never could have seen with my own eyes.
The Heat will have to make some tough decisions - the logical call would be to increase the pressure on Tatum and Brown in these scenarios, since they are creating the play and the Celtics need them to do so. But that leaves the Heat vulnerable underneath on pick and rolls and cuts, and leads to more opportunities for the corner three. As is mentioned below, the Celtics need to do better than 29% on open looks though.
Good comparison. Butler is better than anyone on that C's team, but given the injuries, they're probably about that same level now.
Here's a good Ringer article on the Grant/Bam backstory: https://www.theringer.com/2022/5/27/23143973/grant-williams-bam-adebayo-boston-celtics-miami-heat (Scal talked about this on - I think - Lowe's podcast previewing the series).
If anyone has over an hour to spare, they can watch the NC state HS championship where Bam and Grant squared off.
If anyone has over an hour to spare, they can watch the NC state HS championship where Bam and Grant squared off.
Some numbers are MIA's 3P shooting woes here: https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article261234622.html. Hopefully it continues for one more game.
That’s interesting and well done. It is not surprising that standing in place watching the ball handler does not make for good offensive strategy for the Celtics. It is eye opening how much even a small amount of off ball movement on the offensive side opens things up. I’m sure the Heat will attempt to make defensive adjustments as well however if they don’t and they manage to win the series and they take a similar approach against the Warriors, Steph and Klay will carve them up.
Until or unless the Heat resolve their poor weak side spacing issue, the Celtics should have little problem defending them in the half court. I'm not really sure what Spo is thinking here. By having one person in the WS dunker spot and one in the WS corner or alternatively leaving the WS corner empty, he's allowing the Cs to play zone off the ball (one defender guarding two) and roam and thwart all drives in the paint. I can't see the Heat being more effective even if Herro returns if they do not clean up this spacing issue (and it's been a consistent problem, not just an occasional thing). Anyways, something to look for on the Heat's first quarter possessions tonight.
EDIT - For those who are interested Coach Nick effectively demonstrates this problem on his YT channel.
EDIT - For those who are interested Coach Nick effectively demonstrates this problem on his YT channel.
Increased pressure on the ball at all times is really the Heat's only option, it seems. Unless they get some miracle improvements in their half court games (or RobW is out), their only route to scoring enough points to win is to create turnovers.
5 games into the series, it is probably safe to say that improvement isn't coming. I posted it upthread, but the Heat have averaged 41.8 points per half over the last 5 halves. And that includes the 10 (Celtics) turnover first half of game 5.
Certainly they aren’t a dominant #1 seed. I was just using it as a placeholder for “they’re obviously an upper echelon team”, perhaps I wasn’t too clear. We aren’t playing some crap team like the Lakers here
Miami is good and we’ll coached. I think Boston is better and should be favored but no result in this game should be particularly shocking.
Of course this series isn’t over but if you watched that last game I’m not sure how you could legitimately argue that the Heat have a good chance of winning.
Butler had one of the worst games I’ve ever seen from a player his caliber. It wasn’t that he was missing shots..it was that he wasn’t even fucking close to making them. He air balled two wide open jumpers. It got so bad that he wasn’t even looking to shoot at a certain point.
Lowry’s been so bad the last two games that there are pieces on ESPN and The Athletic about how he needs to be benched.
Herro’s hurt. Even if he comes back to play tonight he will probably be a shell of himself.
Oladipo got Mike f’ing Breen to go “And he’s way off..again” he bricked two 3’s in a row so badly.
Those are the only players on the team who can actually create offense off of the dribble. Strus (who’s been a complete disaster recently as well) and Robinson are almost wholly dependent on other people creating for them. Bam struggles against players with superior length and TL has basically put the clamps on him.
I don’t think the Heat have given up, they just dont have the horses or the depth to compete right now
Butler had one of the worst games I’ve ever seen from a player his caliber. It wasn’t that he was missing shots..it was that he wasn’t even fucking close to making them. He air balled two wide open jumpers. It got so bad that he wasn’t even looking to shoot at a certain point.
Lowry’s been so bad the last two games that there are pieces on ESPN and The Athletic about how he needs to be benched.
Herro’s hurt. Even if he comes back to play tonight he will probably be a shell of himself.
Oladipo got Mike f’ing Breen to go “And he’s way off..again” he bricked two 3’s in a row so badly.
Those are the only players on the team who can actually create offense off of the dribble. Strus (who’s been a complete disaster recently as well) and Robinson are almost wholly dependent on other people creating for them. Bam struggles against players with superior length and TL has basically put the clamps on him.
I don’t think the Heat have given up, they just dont have the horses or the depth to compete right now
I really hope Ime has gotten them over this hump that literally the only thing they need to do is take care of the basketball to win the game. But I agree that the chances are pretty low (maybe 1 in 4) that the Celtics crap on themselves for like the fifth time in this regard.
Udoka has been asked about the turnovers a lot. Here is what he said he discussed with Brown at the half on Wednesday.
It seems like they have identified the problem and its a case of execution. That, of course, doesn't guarantee against another giveaway game but it provides comfort that Boston is prepared for what Miami is trying to do.
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I'm sure he is doing what he can. In hindsight (because I wasn't able to watch in real time), that they were only down 5 points after treating the ball like a hand grenade for 24 minutes is an accurate portrayal of the relative strengths of the two teams.
I'mnot enough of a hoop savant to know quite where the difference is between "driving and exploiting the defensive weak areas" and careless turnovers, but somewhere along the way, Ime has pointed to the need to take one or two fewer steps into the land before dishing. I suspect that guys like JB and JT, who probably lead the team in self-belief as to their ability to get to the hoop, are the main offenders. GrantW was doing some of that as well. They dont have to wait for the help to be right on them, as Miami's defenders cant recover to close out on the 3pt shooter if they even take a step or 2 towards the lane.
As Ime has said repeatedly, "defense travels." The defense was just as good in the 2nd half and with a return to acceptable offense, they rolled.
EDIT: And what DeJesus added about "just getting it stolen." I hadn't seen that.
I think the defense is getting too much credit. They play hard and that counts for an awful lot but Miami has been outrageously cold. Guys like Strus throwing up bricks for 2 games is not just defensive pressure. That game 5 first half is an entirely different story and looks a lot like some of the blowouts against us if they shoot the ball at all. I know I am being a pessimist but I can’t shake the idea that we aren’t over some insurmountable hump that Miami can’t overcome if they just see the ball go through the net a few times
It's also important that the Celtics start the game with this mindset and rather than just being "aggressive" with dribble penetration, they focus on being deliberate and exploitative. Make that pass intentionally. Trust the other guy.
If they are able to do this for sets early on, Miami will be forced to adjust pretty quickly (since it's an elimination game) and I think from there they are doomed.
If there's a silver lining to the turnovers, it's that they're thinking in terms of getting to the rim rather than settling for midrange jumpers. Tatum and Brown are now at the point that their shot selection is dialed in so well that Udoka has to remind them that there's a time and a place for midrange jumpers. The Heat are running them off the three point line, but rather than drive into a crowd of three people, Udoka's trying to get Brown, in particular, to realize that he can just pull up and shoot over Oladipo from 16 feet.
Similarly, they need to make the pass a beat earlier, but the mindset of drawing a crowd of defenders and looking to find the open man is a good one.
The turnovers are maddening, but they have their genesis in Tatum and Brown learning how to do the very things we've been yelling at them to do all along. It's just now a matter of them continuing to figure it out and learning a bit more nuance to those skills. If they turn it over 25 times a game they're going to lose, but I'm not terribly worried about it as a long term trend.
Similarly, they need to make the pass a beat earlier, but the mindset of drawing a crowd of defenders and looking to find the open man is a good one.
The turnovers are maddening, but they have their genesis in Tatum and Brown learning how to do the very things we've been yelling at them to do all along. It's just now a matter of them continuing to figure it out and learning a bit more nuance to those skills. If they turn it over 25 times a game they're going to lose, but I'm not terribly worried about it as a long term trend.
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