Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion

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Al Zarilla

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Smart is critical but Horford out sucks. Timelord looked pretty tired at times out there and played 28 mins. Also Horford has been great as the guy who can get you a few "just hold on" buckets when everybody else is in Poop Mode.
I like the way you put that about Horford. I get a warm, fuzzy feeling when he lines up a relatively open 3. His form isn't great, so it's often surprising when it goes in, but they do.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I agree. On balance, I thought Celtics winning/breaking even for three quarters was a pretty solid performance given all the barriers they were facing. That doesn't change how putrid and depressing Q3 was (especially the last 6 or so minutes).

I am less pessimistic than Ed Jurak on the team's "jaw" but I agree with the overall direction---I'd reframe as they can go down easily becasue of the glass jaw, and they have consistently shown they get back up and get tougher as the round continues. But they did collapse in both game 1s and part of the reason was physicality.
I don't disagree that they have a propensity to keep getting back up.
In game one of this series the C's were tired, apparently dealing with a bigger covid issue than we knew and very short-handed. The teams that lacked toughness left this dance long ago.
They weren't too tired to play well in the first half, and then didn't even show up for the second until after the game was gone.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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They weren't too tired to play well in the first half, and then didn't even show up for the second until after the game was gone.
But that's how fatigue often works. The same way Giannis wasn't too tired to put up 10/8/6 in the 1st quarter to jump out to an early lead in Game 7, but by half time was starting to run out of gas.
 

Eddie Jurak

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But that's how fatigue often works. The same way Giannis wasn't too tired to put up 10/8/6 in the 1st quarter to jump out to an early lead in Game 7, but by half time was starting to run out of gas.
What kind of respite for that fatigue do you see them getting? Jayson Tatum racked up 6 turnovers in a quarter, primarily due to his own poor reads and weak passes, but Ime still ran him out there for 44 minutes if a shorthanded team. And they play again tomorrow. If Tatum’s problem is fatigue, that’s not a good thing.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't disagree that they have a propensity to keep getting back up.
They weren't too tired to play well in the first half, and then didn't even show up for the second until after the game was gone.
That’s the very definition of stamina having an affect. That issue shouldn’t be there tomorrow night or at least can’t be expected to play a factor as it did last night.
 

timelysarcasm

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They may have been a little travel tired, but I don't think they're generally fatigued. This is a young team without plodders. The Celtics didn't match the Heat's aggressiveness in that 3rd and also committed some really stupid turnovers. How many terrible giveaways did we have back to back yesterday?

Multiple steals in the lane, multiple strips down low. It was way too many and ballooned things quickly.

The adjustments are obvious - first, hopefully Smart is back so Butler isn't feasting on PnR and free throws. Secondly, cut down on the turnovers. Win game 2 and then hopefully Horford is back.

View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1526943253605629954
 

RetractableRoof

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What kind of respite for that fatigue do you see them getting? Jayson Tatum racked up 6 turnovers in a quarter, primarily due to his own poor reads and weak passes, but Ime still ran him out there for 44 minutes if a shorthanded team. And they play again tomorrow. If Tatum’s problem is fatigue, that’s not a good thing.
Respectfully, you've read the posts in this thread detailing travel. Look at the Celtics schedule/travel/events of the last 48 hours before Game 1 tip off. What is different between G1 and G2 is the fact the Cs don't travel, they are already settled in their hotel rooms. They can decompress, have a few extra hours for a nap if that's their thing. They have time for a sports massage to ensure optimum performance to work out any kinks, a little longer in the ice bath if that is necessary. Assuming any kind of injury luck, they get Smart back for G2, and that allows combinations such that maybe Tatum/Brown can get another 2-3 minutes on the bench.

The sky may be falling, but it is not definitively falling.
 

jezza1918

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What kind of respite for that fatigue do you see them getting? Jayson Tatum racked up 6 turnovers in a quarter, primarily due to his own poor reads and weak passes, but Ime still ran him out there for 44 minutes if a shorthanded team. And they play again tomorrow. If Tatum’s problem is fatigue, that’s not a good thing.
Not having to fly for the first time in over a week will help mitigate the fatigue some, as will getting Smart and/or Horford back. If those guys don't return, than yes I think it's probably too much of a load for Tatum to carry them. Especially if it takes Brown 3 quarters to show up. I understand it's something that would probably never happen - but when 3rd ended I told my dad there was a large part of me that hoped Ime would just tank the 4th and sit Tatum/Brown/Timelord. I took it back when they got to within striking range, but the thought lingers today.
 

JakeRae

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What kind of respite for that fatigue do you see them getting? Jayson Tatum racked up 6 turnovers in a quarter, primarily due to his own poor reads and weak passes, but Ime still ran him out there for 44 minutes if a shorthanded team. And they play again tomorrow. If Tatum’s problem is fatigue, that’s not a good thing.
Fatigue isn’t just physical. I don’t think the team was limited in their physical ability to perform, but they also didn’t have the ability in Game 1 to channel full intensity for 48 minutes. I’d expect that to come back for Game 2 as they’ll have had a little more breathing room from the pressure of Games 6 and 7.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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What kind of respite for that fatigue do you see them getting? Jayson Tatum racked up 6 turnovers in a quarter, primarily due to his own poor reads and weak passes, but Ime still ran him out there for 44 minutes if a shorthanded team. And they play again tomorrow. If Tatum’s problem is fatigue, that’s not a good thing.
May 9: @Milwaukee
May 11: @Boston
May 13: @Milwaukee
May 15: @Boston
May 17: @Miami

While Miami has been sitting at home since before the Celtics and Bucks tipped off on the 13th. The respite is that both teams are now on the same schedule, can sleep in the same place for multiple nights in a row, spend multiple nights in their own beds during games 3/4, etc etc.
 

HomeRunBaker

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May 9: @Milwaukee
May 11: @Boston
May 13: @Milwaukee
May 15: @Boston
May 17: @Miami

While Miami has been sitting at home since before the Celtics and Bucks tipped off on the 13th. The respite is that both teams are now on the same schedule, can sleep in the same place for multiple nights in a row, spend multiple nights in their own beds during games 3/4, etc etc.
Aside from the obvious turnaround time and travel what few are talking about is the lack of prep time and adjustment to Miami jumping the screens and trapping after gameplanning the last 7 games for the Bucks to play drop coverage against our high screens. They likely had a light noon time walkthrough the day after a Game 7 blowout, hopped on a plane for 3-4 hours, ate dinner out on South Beach and went back to hotel. That’s very little time to prepare for a much different style of play that Miami throws at you.
 

RetractableRoof

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They may have been a little travel tired, but I don't think they're generally fatigued. This is a young team without plodders. The Celtics didn't match the Heat's aggressiveness in that 3rd and also committed some really stupid turnovers. How many terrible giveaways did we have back to back yesterday?

Multiple steals in the lane, multiple strips down low. It was way too many and ballooned things quickly.

The adjustments are obvious - first, hopefully Smart is back so Butler isn't feasting on PnR and free throws. Secondly, cut down on the turnovers. Win game 2 and then hopefully Horford is back.

View: https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/1526943253605629954
As others have posted, fatigue isn't only physical. The events of the previous 48 hours were both physically demanding and mentally as well. All the things you (and others) are describing are part of mental discipline that is hard to maintain when mentally tired. Even just a few less hours sleep (because of adrenaline over the win? Additional media responsibilities? Just staring at the ceiling processing the game plans that they had <48 hours to digest? who knows?) is enough to take the sharpness off decision making, timing, etc. This is all obvious (it's why some folks were calling it a schedule loss) - but it was a big ask given the circumstances of the MIA rest, their own 48 hour schedule, and down two starters. That they had a lead going into the half was a pleasant surprise in my book.
 

joe dokes

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They weren't too tired to play well in the first half, and then didn't even show up for the second until after the game was gone.
JFC. Most folks don't fall asleep at the wheel as they pull out of the garage.

They were missing 2 of their starting lineup, 2 of their 3 best defensive players, and played competitively for at least half the game. Sounds about right to me.

And if neither smart nor horford plays a single minute in this series, I'd expect the next 3 games to play out in a similar fashion.

Otoh, Chris Gas-Par's headline writer agrees with you:


"For the Celtics to win this series, Jayson Tatum must show more mental toughness"
 

reggiecleveland

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What I saw was more frightening than fatigue etc. The Celtics were well prepared and played with the energy and confidence of a champion. I am not joking. So show up and smack the other team in the mouth like that, short-handed, after short rest, tough travel. Often that is a win on the way to a banner or finals appearance. Great job by coaches and players. Miami adjusted at halftime and had the Celtics off balance all 3q and did whatever they wanted. Miami did exactly what they had to do. The Celtics played rally hard, and had some guys shoot it well, but the Heat had answers. They got good shots, and not by some science fiction level athlete bulling his way into the paint, but with extra passes, execution, and guys doing their job. This is a much deeper team than the Bucks.
 

dhellers

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The combo of fatigue and missing key players can explain a lot of the utter 3rd quarter collapse. As opposed to bad 3rd quatter (say, down by 10) that can be recovered from.
Doesn't mean the Celts will have no problem beating the top seeded Heat. It does mean story is still to be told. ASSUMING that Smart and Horford don't miss more than one more game.

I will critique Ime a bit. The odds of the celts winning were low -- trap game + shorthanded. For him to stick to his starters (JT in particular) as much as possible is shortsighted. Although the thin parts of the bench weren't likely to be successful, the alternative (overuse of the starters) is even less likely. And that's how it played out: there is no way the bench (especially in the last several minutes) could of been worse.

My analogy is blackjack -- if you have a 16 and the dealer is showing a 10, your least bad choice is to draw a card. You probably still lose (immediately!), but the odds are better.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Giannis went 50/74 from the line vs the C's. He shot .676.

Assuming Butler gets to the line 74 times and makes them at his season rate of .870 (conservative considering he has a 17/18 start), he'll hit 65.

That's 15 more points, a little more than 2 points a game.

I think part of the reason Tatum doesn't get to the line as often as a Butler or Giannis is because Brown is also getting to the line. Yesterday Tatum had 9 FTA and Brown 10. Giannis and Butler take a higher % of their team's FT.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I wonder if Ime actually does have COVID and doesn't know it yet.
That would be his only excuse for using his challenge on Tatum’s obvious 1H charge in G7.


Giannis went 50/74 from the line vs the C's. He shot .676.

Assuming Butler gets to the line 74 times and makes them at his season rate of .870 (conservative considering he has a 17/18 start), he'll hit 65.

That's 15 more points, a little more than 2 points a game.

I think part of the reason Tatum doesn't get to the line as often as a Butler or Giannis is because Brown is also getting to the line. Yesterday Tatum had 9 FTA and Brown 10. Giannis and Butler take a higher % of their team's FT.
People really overthink this. Butler is prime-Harden at creating angles prior to generating contact on his out of position defender. This isn’t luck, it isn’t the officials giving him calls…..this is an elite skill that he has.
 

BigSoxFan

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Giannis went 50/74 from the line vs the C's. He shot .676.

Assuming Butler gets to the line 74 times and makes them at his season rate of .870 (conservative considering he has a 17/18 start), he'll hit 65.

That's 15 more points, a little more than 2 points a game.

I think part of the reason Tatum doesn't get to the line as often as a Butler or Giannis is because Brown is also getting to the line. Yesterday Tatum had 9 FTA and Brown 10. Giannis and Butler take a higher % of their team's FT.
And that’s why closing out the Heat is such a pain in the ass. When push comes to shove, Butler can get to the line almost at will and he doesn’t miss much when he’s there. Celtics need to find ways to get the ball out of his hands that doesn’t involve leaving their shooters wide open. It’s a tall task.
 

Cesar Crespo

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That would be his only excuse for using his challenge on Tatum’s obvious 1H charge in G7.



People really overthink this. Butler is prime-Harden at creating angles prior to generating contact on his out of position defender. This isn’t luck, it isn’t the officials giving him calls…..this is an elite skill that he has.
I don't disagree with anything you said but it doesn't go against anything I said. Look at Butlers FTA/G when he was with Philly. He was at 5.5 That's because he was splitting FTs with Embiid. James Harden joins Durant and his FTA/G go down.

I'm probably wording my point very badly but hopefully I'm getting it across. If someone gets to the line 18 times a game, his next closest teammate probably has 4-5 attempts. And that was the case. The C's had 3 players with at least 7.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't disagree with anything you said but it doesn't go against anything I said. Look at Butlers FTA/G when he was with Philly. He was at 5.5 That's because he was splitting FTs with Embiid. James Harden joins Durant and his FTA/G go down.

I'm probably wording my point very badly but hopefully I'm getting it across. If someone gets to the line 18 times a game, his next closest teammate probably has 4-5 attempts. And that was the case. The C's had 3 players with at least 7.
I wasn’t disagreeing with you. I was supporting your statement to emphasize how great Butler is at this probing skill and how high of a BBIQ he has.
 

BaseballJones

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Smart is critical but Horford out sucks. Timelord looked pretty tired at times out there and played 28 mins. Also Horford has been great as the guy who can get you a few "just hold on" buckets when everybody else is in Poop Mode.
I'd REALLY like to hear Van Gundy use this terminology tomorrow night.
 

lars10

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That would be his only excuse for using his challenge on Tatum’s obvious 1H charge in G7.

People really overthink this. Butler is prime-Harden at creating angles prior to generating contact on his out of position defender. This isn’t luck, it isn’t the officials giving him calls…..this is an elite skill that he has.
I could agree with you on perhaps 50% of the calls, but there's just no proof that it's true for every single call he gets. It also doesn't explain why Tatum doesn't get these exact same calls doing the exact same things. Sometimes it's just superstar officiating or simply bad officiating.
 

m0ckduck

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What part of “this is a really young [talented] team” don’t people understand? With Smart and Horford sidelined, the C’s played two guys older than 25 last night. If you want to see the team consistently show composure in big moments, come back in a few years when the nucleus is hopefully still together and in their respective primes. For the moment, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Add in a rookie coach who is good but hasn’t had the team emotionally ready for the start of any of these three series and… yeah, it’s hold-on-to-your-butt-cheeks time at points.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What part of “this is a really young [talented] team” don’t people understand? With Smart and Horford sidelined, the C’s played two guys older than 25 last night. If you want to see the team consistently show composure in big moments, come back in a few years when the nucleus is hopefully still together and in their respective primes. For the moment, it’s a bit of a rollercoaster ride. Add in a rookie coach who is good but hasn’t had the team emotionally ready for the start of any of these three series and… yeah, it’s hold-on-to-your-butt-cheeks time at points.
Maybe but Tatum and Brown have tons of playoff experience. I don't think composure is a problem anyway. While age can be, I don't think it necessarily is with this C's team. They have playoff experience. They had a bad quarter. Sometimes things just happen.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sam Hauser's injury sounds like the worst episode of Seinfeld ever. That right shoulder instability is MAKING ME THIRSTY!
We've already seen this episode too. I think someone asked the last time Hauser was out with this, but what is Right shoulder instability episode?

edit: I guess that's what it is. It's when the shoulder is dislocated/instable, it can have repeat episodes.
 

ehaz

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Were Strus and Vincent on the game 1 injury report or are those hamstring injuries new?
 

djbayko

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People really overthink this. Butler is prime-Harden at creating angles prior to generating contact on his out of position defender. This isn’t luck, it isn’t the officials giving him calls…..this is an elite skill that he has.
Exactly. He's not getting a Giannis-like favorable whistle. He's actually earning the fouls. That's why I don't hate the officiating like I did with Milwaukee. I wish it weren't true that Butler was so good at drawing fouls, but there's nothing I can do about that.
 

tims4wins

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It only took one game for Butler to have more FTA in a single game than Giannis did all series. So yeah, I was wrong about that one.
 

Imbricus

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Al "doubtful" and Marcus "probable" is probably as good as we could have hoped for at this point.
Yeah, "doubtful" is encouraging. That means there's a chance. Maybe someone smarter than me at parsing Covid protocol cuneiform can weigh in on whether that probably means he just came in contact with someone infected but isn't infected himself or ... ?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Exactly. He's not getting a Giannis-like favorable whistle. He's actually earning the fouls. That's why I don't hate the officiating like I did with Milwaukee. I wish it weren't true that Butler was so good at drawing fouls, but there's nothing I can do about that.
I observe it being both---he is great at creating angles and contact...and he gets calls that are not merited in part because of his rep and in part because he creates contact.
 

nighthob

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I observe it being both---he is great at creating angles and contact...and he gets calls that are not merited in part because of his rep and in part because he creates contact.
He's pretty much the reincarnation of Kobe, can't shoot the trey for shit and when he takes a wrong angle to the hoop he suddenly hits the ground as if his body has been riddled with bullets leading to a foul for the nearest defender. Who doesn't need to be particularly close.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is the Heat's schtick. They've been listing multiple rotation players as questionable in the playoffs. They all end up playing.
I don’t think it’s a schtick with Tucker though as he’s left the floor for the locker room in each of the last two games.
 

128

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I don’t think it’s a schtick with Tucker though as he’s left the floor for the locker room in each of the last two games.
Maybe not with Tucker, but before one of the games against Philly, Miami listed about eight players as "questionable." All played that night.
 

joe dokes

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Yeah, "doubtful" is encouraging. That means there's a chance. Maybe someone smarter than me at parsing Covid protocol cuneiform can weigh in on whether that probably means he just came in contact with someone infected but isn't infected himself or ... ?
This from the Glob:


If Horford tested positive for COVID, he would need to produce two negative PCR tests over a 24-hour period or have a viral load below a certain threshold four days after his first positive test.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This from the Glob:
Was hearing this morning that Covid is whipping through the Boston universities and of course they are all out in the city, etc spreading. I’m surprised it wouldn’t go through the entire team since 2020 precautions are no longer being taken.