Celtics vs. Heat, Round 3 Discussion

[Mooch]

The main issue for Miami is that they really lack enough 2 way players to counter the Celtics top 7 guys. When they are struggling on offense, they will try to give minutes to Herro and Strus but that leaves them very vulnerable defensively against Brown, Smart and Tatum. If they try to tighten up their defense with Bam and Olidipo, they lose offensive flow and don’t have enough guys who can create their own shot.

Boston is quite simply a nightmare matchup for Miami, and there’s not a lot they can do to change that.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't think Vincent lacks offensive punch. He's scored 17 and 14 points in the two games, on 10-20 shooting (5-10 each game). He's scored those 31 points in just 58 minutes, so pretty efficient. He's not a take-the-game-over kind of guy, and I guess guys like Robinson and the artist formerly known as Oladipo are capable of going nuclear, but Vincent certainly hasn't been holding them back.

I agree--Vincent isn't bad at all. But he also doesn't create any gravity- he's scoring because he's getting it after several rotations. What I observe is Miami needs more guys who demand attention, and they simply don't have enough of them. So they only have three ways to manufacture that pressure----Bam playing better and more actively on offense (possible but absent bad matchups I'm not sure he is that guy); Herro heating up (again, possible); and spreading the court more because Robinson/Strus are really hitting and forcing Celts to cover deep and create space for Herro/Bam/Butler and maybe Oladipo. I am not saying that'll work---not sure they can generate that shooting or that Celts adjustments will open up enough room, they just don't need to double against Miami--I'm saying that's the list Spo realistically can think through to try.

I guess the other thing you could do is just run the Giannis offense with Butler---have him take it most every possession and see if he can go 40/10 assists. Not impossible at all, though Celts will really load up as they did on Giannis.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Smart 19 potential assists with only 1 turnover, Tatum 15 potential assists with only 3 turnovers.

They moved the ball incredibly well last night.

 

[BaseballJones]

Very quietly, Grant Williams has become one of Boston's key players, in the sense that when he plays well, they usually win, and when he doesn't play well, they usually lose. Here's his playoff game log the last two series:

G1 vs Mil: 8 points (2-6), 4 reb, L (-12)
G2 vs Mil: 21 points (7-14), 5 reb, W (+23)
G3 at Mil: 9 points (2-9), 6 reb, L (-2)
G4 at Mil: 9 points (3-9), 4 reb, W (+8)
G5 vs Mil: 0 points (0-3), 2 reb, L (-3)
G6 at Mil: 2 points (0-3), 5 reb, W (+13)
G7 vs Mil: 27 points (10-22), 6 reb, W (+28)
G1 at Mia: 7 points (2-5), 1 reb, L (-11)
G2 at Mia: 19 points (5-7), 4 reb, W (+25)

It's not a perfect match, but in the games they've won (5 of them), he's scored 78 points (15.6 avg) on 25-56 shooting (.446) with 24 rebounds (4.8 avg). And in the games they've lost (4 of them), he's scored 24 points (6.0 avg) on 6-23 shooting (.261) with 13 rebounds (3.3 avg).

Or look at it this way:

27 points (G7/Mil) - W (+28)
21 points (G2/Mil) - W (+23)
19 points (G2/Mia) - W (+25)
9 points (G4/Mil) - W (+8)
9 points (G3/Mil) - L (-2)
8 points (G1/Mil) - L (-12)
7 points (G1/Mia) - L (-11)
2 points (G6/Mil) - W (+13)
0 points (G5/Mil) - L (-3)

In the games he's scored in double digits, they're 3-0 by an average margin of +25.3. In the games he's scored in single digits, they're 2-4, with an average margin of -1.2.

In the games he's scored 9 or more points, they're 4-1 with an average margin of +16.4. In the games he's scored 8 or fewer, they're 1-3, with an average margin of -3.3.

Or look at it this way:

5-7 (G2/Mia) - W (+25)
7-14 (G2/Mil) - W (+23)
10-22 (G7/Mil) - W (+28)
2-5 (G1/Mia) - L (-11)
3-9 (G4/Mil) - W (+8)
2-6 (G1/Mil) - L (-12)
2-9 (G3/Mil) - L (-2)
0-3 (G6/Mil) - W (+13)
0-3 (G5/Mil) - L (-3)

When he's shot 45% or better, they're 3-0 by an average margin of +25.3. In the games he's shot 40% or lower, they're 2-4, with an average margin of -1.2.

In the games he's shot 40% or better, they're 3-1 by an average margin of +16.3. In the games he's shot less than 40%, they're 2-3, with an average margin of +0.8.

Obviously it's not a perfect correlation, and even if it was, correlation is not necessarily causation. It just seems like (and the numbers mostly support this) when Grant Williams plays well, the team plays well, and when he doesn't, the team struggles. One huge exception to that was the Tatum game in G6 at Milwaukee. Grant wasn't very good but Tatum went absolutely nuclear so it didn't matter. And of course, none of this factors in his defense.

 

[tims4wins]

The reality is that, when healthy, the Celts are a juggernaut. 25-4 is a 70 win pace. And they didn't even have White tonight.

I said in the game thread before the game that if the Celts win, the series is going 6 games max, maybe 5. I stand by that. They are a superior team to the Heat, and a terrible matchup to boot.

View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1527482356264738838

 

[BaseballJones]

I agree--Vincent isn't bad at all. But he also doesn't create any gravity- he's scoring because he's getting it after several rotations. What I observe is Miami needs more guys who demand attention, and they simply don't have enough of them. So they only have three ways to manufacture that pressure----Bam playing better and more actively on offense (possible but absent bad matchups I'm not sure he is that guy); Herro heating up (again, possible); and spreading the court more because Robinson/Strus are really hitting and forcing Celts to cover deep and create space for Herro/Bam/Butler and maybe Oladipo. I am not saying that'll work---not sure they can generate that shooting or that Celts adjustments will open up enough room, they just don't need to double against Miami--I'm saying that's the list Spo realistically can think through to try.

I guess the other thing you could do is just run the Giannis offense with Butler---have him take it most every possession and see if he can go 40/10 assists. Not impossible at all, though Celts will really load up as they did on Giannis.

Gravity is a real thing. But Vincent showed that he can create his own shot. If Boston isn't going to bring help his way (gravity), then he's shown he's more than capable of scoring in his one-on-one matchup.

I don't know that Butler can pull a Giannis game-in and game-out. He's simply not as good a player. But he does seem to get an even better whistle than Giannis.

 

[Jakarta]

The formula for success against the Celtics the whole postseason has been to generate a lot of turnovers and get easy scores off those turnovers. Assuming Tucker is playing, I think Spo might lean into playing his best defensive guys as much as possible and try to make this as ugly as possible. It would help to have Lowry back who is great at mucking up the game when healthy. If they could play Lowry, Butler, Tucker and Bam they could probably at least make the game ugly which might allow them to stay close enough to have a chance to steal it at the end.

 

[BaseballJones]

Right, Vincent is fine. The Heat's problem is that they have a roster full of guys who don't hold you back, but don't have any guys who really warp defenses. Butler is miscast as a 1A imo, and would be amazing in the Jaylen 1B/2 role.

Obviously huge credit to Miami putting this team together on the fly without rebuilding, but they haven't been able to get the 1A scorer you need. They can sort of simulate it when Herro and Butler are both on, and when the shooting is lighting it up, but that's a tough way to win 4 games against the best teams.

I agree. I think what they really need is for Bam to take the next step and become Embiid lite. He's a really, really good player, make no mistake. But it would change them considerably if he could go from a 19 point a game guy to a 24-25 point a game guy. Doesn't sound like much, but it is. He still scores most of his points (it seems...I don't watch every Heat game obviously) off putbacks and lobs and dishes for dunks. If he could ever develop into a true post or mid-post presence, or if he could ever develop a real outside shot and become an alpha, that would radically change Miami. As it stands now, he's great around the rim, and finishes really well, and plays good D and gets a bunch of boards, but isn't really a dominant offensive player. Maybe that'll come. Maybe it won't. But that's one way they could take their team to the next level.

(I mean, he is already kind of Embiid lite, but Embiid averages 30 a game, so I'm suggesting that Bam become more like Embiid than he is now, without fully being as good. I think you get my intended meaning.)

 

[NomarsFool]

Clearly the team didn’t have the will to respond after getting punched in the mouth on game 1

 

[tims4wins]

538 had the Celts at 70% to win the series coming in; 61% after the game 1 loss; and now 81% after the game 2 win. Currently at 68% to win the title which is insane.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If I were Miami I'd think about more pure shooting out there---can you abandon Tucker (which may be out of their control) and reduce Vincent's minutes to get more Oladipo and Robinson out there to give you some additional offensive punch? Can you use Bam more as a point-center to initiate inside-out stuff? They desparately need scoring punch, and they may need to gamble on traps or zones defensively to get away with putting that additional scoring punch on the court. Spo is an excellent coach and I have to think he realizes Celtics have been stronger 7 of the 8 quarters and he needs to change some things ASAP.

MIA's bigger need is defense and losing Tucker is really going to hurt. I wonder if they are going to pull Morris out of mothballs. Herro, Strus, and Robinson all have some offensive games but it's hard to play 2 of them together as BOS just goes around - or over - them.

Agree they'll need to get creative if Tucker is out. Zone is tough--they did it a bit last night, and the Celtics carved it up, with Tatum and Horford getting middle easily.

The tough part about playing Robinson is that Butler and Herro aren't drawing enough help to force rotations and get him shots. He also doesn't seem to have that 2020 magic where he creates offense on his own via movement.

I won't rule out his having a big game or two, but the defensive end is going to get brutal against this Celtics team if the Heat have to play him big minutes.

One 9f the differences between G1 and G2 is that BOS realized it doesn't need to overreact to Butler and Herro inside the 3P line. Yes tough defense has to be played but so long as BOS doesn't foul, neither of them are going to hit enough mid-range 2Ps to offset BOS on the other end. Thus, BOS is not committing help, which means BOS is staying home on the 3P shooters; BOS is not trying to block Butler's shot, which means he won't have the parade to the FT line, and BOS is staying with Bam on the PnR.

I was one who was worried about Bam this series. There's still a long way to go but I'm kind of amazed how little MIA uses him on offense these days. Going from memory, Bam used to be much more involved (didn't he even initiate the offense at times in 2020)? Maybe it's BOS's defense but in 2020, Bam had a USG% of just over 21% and took around 13 shots per game; this series his USG% is 10.5% and he is taking 5 shots per game. Hope that continues.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

The reality is that, when healthy, the Celts are a juggernaut. 25-4 is a 70 win pace. And they didn't even have White tonight.

I said in the game thread before the game that if the Celts win, the series is going 6 games max, maybe 5. I stand by that. They are a superior team to the Heat, and a terrible matchup to boot.

View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1527482356264738838

Agreed. Maybe riding high after last night, but as I said in the game thread this series has big gentlemen’s sweep or Game 6 home close out energy as long as we stay healthy. It has been said a lot already, but we’re bigger, more talented, and a matchup nightmare for Miami when we have everyone available. It would take a serious implosion or devastating injury to lose this series

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The formula for success against the Celtics the whole postseason has been to generate a lot of turnovers and get easy scores off those turnovers. Assuming Tucker is playing, I think Spo might lean into playing his best defensive guys as much as possible and try to make this as ugly as possible. It would help to have Lowry back who is great at mucking up the game when healthy. If they could play Lowry, Butler, Tucker and Bam they could probably at least make the game ugly which might allow them to stay close enough to have a chance to steal it at the end.

Someone pointed this out above, but Miami's problem is really that they have offnesive role plauers and defensive ones, all of whom can be exploited at the other end. That makes the Celtics and their top 7 in 2-way depth a difficult matchup.

Adding injury to insult the Heat have Lowry and maybe Tucker out.

All of which is to say, I think this is right - Miami needs to go for an ugly defensive game where they bring a lot of ball pressure and force turnovers and hope for the best. (Or hope for more Celtics in the Covid protocols).

 

[NoXInNixon]

538 had the Celts at 70% to win the series coming in; 61% after the game 1 loss; and now 81% after the game 2 win. Currently at 68% to win the title which is insane.

I'm almost afraid to type this out loud, but this is honestly starting to feel like the beginning of a Dynasty. This core, if it stays together and healthy, is going to win 65+ games for the next several seasons. They're a nightmare match-up for everyone.

 

[NomarsFool]

Right now, I feel like the Celtics are generally escaping the traps and blitzes, but I don’t feel like they are punishing Miami for trying. Yes, Tatum had a lot of good assists and the Celtics had a number of wide open threes - but I guess I’d like to see even easier, even higher percentage offense coming out of those traps. Sometimes it seemed like they still had to go into their normal half court offense after escaping the trap. So, if I’m Miami, while their approach isn’t working per se, I don’t think it’s hurting, either. So, I would keep doing it if I were them and hope the Celtics get a bit cold from deep. That’s not a bad strategy.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Someone pointed this out above, but Miami's problem is really that they have offnesive role plauers and defensive ones, all of whom can be exploited at the other end. That makes the Celtics and their top 7 in 2-way depth a difficult matchup.

Adding injury to insult the Heat have Lowry and maybe Tucker out.

All of which is to say, I think this is right - Miami needs to go for an ugly defensive game where they bring a lot of ball pressure and force turnovers and hope for the best. (Or hope for more Celtics in the Covid protocols).

I agree that is a different way to play it, and turnovers-fast break buckets are a different way to generate offense. Miami had some success in past with more traps and aggressive D, and certainly in third Q of game 1 that mattered a lot. What I am not sure I really see is that they have the defensive guys to make that happen against the Celtics with Smart and Horford out there, though. Breaking Morris out is a way to try to get there (I don't see why they are bothering with Dedmon, for example)...who I like, but doesn't fit in this matchup. I guess it is worth a shot; for me, trying to junk up defense, get a lot more physical associated with that, and add shooters is more likely to work, but the problem we've all highlighted remains: espeically without a healthy Lowry they struggle to put even three two-way guys out there.

BTW, we shouldn't forget about the impact of Lowry if he can come back---it just doesn't seem likely he can both return and play material and good minutes. But that also is not impossible.

 

[Auger34]

The formula for success against the Celtics the whole postseason has been to generate a lot of turnovers and get easy scores off those turnovers. Assuming Tucker is playing, I think Spo might lean into playing his best defensive guys as much as possible and try to make this as ugly as possible. It would help to have Lowry back who is great at mucking up the game when healthy. If they could play Lowry, Butler, Tucker and Bam they could probably at least make the game ugly which might allow them to stay close enough to have a chance to steal it at the end.

I really don’t think Lowry changes the equation that much. Vincent has been really good for them the past 2 games (you could make the argument he’s been their 2nd best player) and Lowry will he rusty coming back from a hamstring injury.

Bam is who they really need to get going. I don’t know what the hell happened to his offensive game but it’s nowhere near what I remember it being. (He’s also not getting a ton of touches)

If Bam keeps playing like that offensively then the only way the Heat win is if Strus/Herro/Vicent become complete flamethrowers from deep….and I like the Celtics odds there

 

[Kliq]

I thought it was strange when late in the third quarter the Heat were starting to claw their way back into the game and suddenly they inserted an ice-cold Duncan Robinson into the game and ran a bunch of plays for him.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I agree that is a different way to play it, and turnovers-fast break buckets are a different way to generate offense. Miami had some success in past with more traps and aggressive D, and certainly in third Q of game 1 that mattered a lot. What I am not sure I really see is that they have the defensive guys to make that happen against the Celtics with Smart and Horford out there, though. Breaking Morris out is a way to try to get there (I don't see why they are bothering with Dedmon, for example)...who I like, but doesn't fit in this matchup. I guess it is worth a shot; for me, trying to junk up defense, get a lot more physical associated with that, and add shooters is more likely to work, but the problem we've all highlighted remains: espeically without a healthy Lowry they struggle to put even three two-way guys out there.

BTW, we shouldn't forget about the impact of Lowry if he can come back---it just doesn't seem likely he can both return and play material and good minutes. But that also is not impossible.

Given the lack of two-way depth, I think ugly and then hope to keep it close enough for when Butler goes off is what they have to try to do. If they were up 15 at the half and Butler led a charge to cut it to 7, maybe that is where Celtic panic and return to bad habits starts to happen.

I really don’t think Lowry changes the equation that much. Vincent has been really good for them the past 2 games (you could make the argument he’s been their 2nd best player) and Lowry will he rusty coming back from a hamstring injury.

Bam is who they really need to get going. I don’t know what the hell happened to his offensive game but it’s nowhere near what I remember it being. (He’s also not getting a ton of touches)

If Bam keeps playing like that offensively then the only way the Heat win is if Strus/Herro/Vicent become complete flamethrowers from deep….and I like the Celtics odds there

Bam is a really good point. The Celtics have contained him so far. For Miami to win, that cannot continue.

Against the Celtics last time these teams played in the ECF, Bubble Bam averaged 21.8/11.0/5.2. Through 2 games in this series, he's at 8.0/6.5/1.5. Quite a difference.

 

[Senator Donut]

So does this mean that Marcus Smart's will to win is greater than that of James Buckets?

I have to agree with HRB. If tonight was anything, its confirmation that this team is a legitimate contender. I don't even hesitate to type that. It would have been unthinkable just a few months ago.

In golf, the handicap system is designed to measure your potential, not necessarily your ability (although they closely align) which is more than half of your worse performances are tossed out.

For the Celtics, this win measured the tremendous potential of this team. This wasn't a schedule loss for Miami; they were playing at home with almost all of its best players (no Lowry of course) with the NBA Finals on the line and the Celtics bludgeoned them. Last night Boston demonstrated the battle weapon of its fully operational death star.

 

[chilidawg]

4-0 now in the playoffs after a loss. Glass jaw my ass.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

For the Celtics, this win measured the tremendous potential of this team. This wasn't a schedule loss for Miami; they were playing at home with almost all of its best players (no Lowry of course) with the NBA Finals on the line and the Celtics bludgeoned them. Last night Boston demonstrated the battle weapon of its fully operational death star.

The Celtics struggle when teams are able to throw a wrench into the machinery. If I were Spoelstra, I'd be thinking about how to achieve that.

 

[Marceline]

I thought it was strange when late in the third quarter the Heat were starting to claw their way back into the game and suddenly they inserted an ice-cold Duncan Robinson into the game and ran a bunch of plays for him.

I thought the commentary around that was kind of funny, too. Like they were talking about how great it was that he handled his demotion well, and how the way to get his playing time back would be to start hitting shots (while he was bricking 3s).

 

[Helmet Head]

Against the Celtics last time these teams played in the ECF, Bubble Bam averaged 21.8/11.0/5.2. Through 2 games in this series, he's at 8.0/6.5/1.5. Quite a difference.

Bubble Bam primarily had Daniel Theis guarding him. Now he is has to deal with Williams and Horford, who are both playing elite defense as far as I am concerned. Meaning, I think it’s going to be really hard for Bam to sustain any sort of offensive success this series.

 

[CreightonGubanich]

To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.

This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?

I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.

This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?

I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.

Well one thing I've noticed is that on the Butler-Bam PnRs that kiiilllled the Cs in the past, they are switching and holding up. After all, Bam against JB or JT is not the mismatch it was in the bubble.

Second, with the Herro and Bam PnRs, they are playing drop coverage and letting Herro get his mid-range shots. They are preventing the ball from getting to Bam on the easy rolls and assuming that Herro is not going to make enough mid-range 2Ps to beat them.

But also, MIA is not making a great effort in getting Bam the ball in the middle of the court. Maybe they feel like it's not going to be productive. But boy am I glad to see that Bam is not hitting 15 footers all evening like he did in the bubble.

 

[Mooch]

To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.

This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?

I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.

I'm not 100% certain but one thing that I've noticed is that Bam has been avoiding rolling to the hoop after setting picks. I saw a number of instances yesterday where he would set a screen and roll laterally along the perimeter instead of doing that spin-inside move. When Bam sits that far out and the Celtics sag off of him, he becomes worthless offensively. He really looks like he's avoiding contact a lot and I'm beginning to wonder if it's physical or mental.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Right now, I feel like the Celtics are generally escaping the traps and blitzes, but I don’t feel like they are punishing Miami for trying. Yes, Tatum had a lot of good assists and the Celtics had a number of wide open threes - but I guess I’d like to see even easier, even higher percentage offense coming out of those traps. Sometimes it seemed like they still had to go into their normal half court offense after escaping the trap. So, if I’m Miami, while their approach isn’t working per se, I don’t think it’s hurting, either. So, I would keep doing it if I were them and hope the Celtics get a bit cold from deep. That’s not a bad strategy.

Cs scored 127 and had 119 with over 5 minutes left to go in the game when garbage time ensued. Tough crowd.

I thought it was strange when late in the third quarter the Heat were starting to claw their way back into the game and suddenly they inserted an ice-cold Duncan Robinson into the game and ran a bunch of plays for him.

Robinson came in with 2:24 left in the 3Q. BOS was up by 19 but more importantly, MIA had only scored 67 points up to then. I presume Spolestra is trying to figure out someone who can generate his own offense, which Robinson used to be able to do by running around screens. Strus has range but he's still more of a guy who relies on others to generate looks.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'm almost afraid to type this out loud, but this is honestly starting to feel like the beginning of a Dynasty. This core, if it stays together and healthy, is going to win 65+ games for the next several seasons. They're a nightmare match-up for everyone.

Al is a huge piece of this, and though he's playing very well, he's old for an NBA player and I don't even know if they'll keep him around after this year, or at most, after next year. But who knows. Certainly the other key guys are in good shape age-wise:

Tatum: 23
Brown: 25
Smart: 27 (that's amazing...feels like he's been here for two decades)
RWilliams: 24
White: 26
GWilliams: 23
Pritchard: 24

Al is 35. Nesmith (not a core guy but someone we all hope makes that next step forward in development) is 22.

Note: Their ages are what basketball-reference has associated with this season. Tatum, for example, is actually 24 but this is his 23-year old season based on his birthday (March 3).

 

[BaseballJones]

Cs scored 127 and had 119 with over 5 minutes left to go in the game when garbage time ensued. Tough crowd.

Robinson came in with 2:24 left in the 3Q. BOS was up by 19 but more importantly, MIA had only scored 67 points up to then. I presume Spolestra is trying to figure out someone who can generate his own offense, which Robinson used to be able to do by running around screens. Strus has range but he's still more of a guy who relies on others to generate looks.

Well, and... if Robinson can suddenly get his shot going, it's a huge boost for Miami going forward. That's why I was so glad to see him go 0-4 last night, even in some garbage time. I just don't want him to see shots starting to fall from deep, because he can be extremely dangerous.

 

[Saints Rest]

The Celtics struggle when teams are able to throw a wrench into the machinery. If I were Spoelstra, I'd be thinking about how to achieve that.

That first sentence likely applies to most teams, but as to your second sentence . . . I was interested (and perhaps a bit wary) of how this version of the Celtics would respond to the Miami zone that killed them in the bubble. Well, Miami pulled it out last night and the Celtics crushed it. Two plays of note I recall:

• one was where Al got the ball in the middle of the zone, pretty much right at the FT line, which is supposed to be the weak part of the zone. No Heat came to challenge him, all staying out on the perimeter shooters. So Al simply hit what was probably the closest thing to a free throw that one can have in the live action of a game.
• the other was where they swung the ball to Jaylen at the right break, but he caught it on the move and slashed right thru the zone like butter.

 

[slamminsammya]

To pile on, what is happening with Bam? I get that the Celtics are a tough matchup for him on offense, and that explains a bit of why he's gone from a 19 PPG scorer in the regular season to what he's doing now. But Miami used to be so dynamic running their offense through him, having him bring the ball up the floor, and basically using him like Draymond. Now, he barely touches the ball on offense, and the Miami offense is so much more predictable as a result. Oladipo or Vincent bring the ball up the floor and initiate the offense, and Butler is their only reliable scorer, only he can't really shoot from three.

This isn't just about this series; he's gone from averaging over 5 assists a game the past two seasons to 3.4 this year. Is it the Kyle Lowry affect? And if so, why are they still playing that way with Lowry out?

I have so much respect for Spo that I can't help but think it's a physical thing with Bam rather than a tactical thing.

A couple points here:

1) Miami's offense as a whole this year was much better than it was last year, which coincided with Lowry arriving and Bam's assist numbers going down. I don't think that is a coincidence (he just isn't in the creator role as much)

2) Bam has never been an excellent generator of his own shots. Most of his looks come after 0 dribbles per NBA.com. Against superb individual defenders who can box out like Grant and Horford, he is the kind of guy who can disappear a bit.

3) As mentioned, one of his big strengths is as a lob threat but the Celtics have clearly been handling that very well so far.

 

[benhogan]

MIA's bigger need is defense and losing Tucker is really going to hurt. I wonder if they are going to pull Morris out of mothballs. Herro, Strus, and Robinson all have some offensive games but it's hard to play 2 of them together as BOS just goes around - or over - them.

One 9f the differences between G1 and G2 is that BOS realized it doesn't need to overreact to Butler and Herro inside the 3P line. Yes tough defense has to be played but so long as BOS doesn't foul, neither of them are going to hit enough mid-range 2Ps to offset BOS on the other end. Thus, BOS is not committing help, which means BOS is staying home on the 3P shooters; BOS is not trying to block Butler's shot, which means he won't have the parade to the FT line, and BOS is staying with Bam on the PnR.

I was one who was worried about Bam this series. There's still a long way to go but I'm kind of amazed how little MIA uses him on offense these days. Going from memory, Bam used to be much more involved (didn't he even initiate the offense at times in 2020)? Maybe it's BOS's defense but in 2020, Bam had a USG% of just over 21% and took around 13 shots per game; this series his USG% is 10.5% and he is taking 5 shots per game. Hope that continues.

Agreed Miami needs as much tough defense as possible, losing Tucker would be brutal. He's not a high vol shooter but is very much a threat from the corner and has to be accounted for. If a Morris hits the floor that will be the ultimate white flag

If they have Bam initiate the offense from the top, what does that accomplish?

Point Bam is a non-event when you have GrantFORD guarding him. They can sag off or guard him tight on the perimeter, the one place Bam can hurt Grant or Al is on the boards. BUT that kind of gums up the lane for Miami and Boston's size helps on the boards.

Having Smart back to credibly guard Butler is massive since Jaylen Brown primarily covering Jimmy is a mismatch that Miami can exploit

 

[Auger34]

I would bet when this series is over we find out that Bam’s been playing with various ailments that sapped his effectiveness. He had problems with his quad in the Hawks series and that type of injury tends to linger.
He doesn’t look as explosive or move as well as I remember he did

 

[reggiecleveland]

Bubble Bam primarily had Daniel Theis guarding him. Now he is has to deal with Williams and Horford, who are both playing elite defense as far as I am concerned. Meaning, I think it’s going to be really hard for Bam to sustain any sort of offensive success this series.

I thought JVG was stepping on the "handling it well" stuff by saying it didn't matter unless he played better.

 

[Saints Rest]

So much changed last night with the return of Al and Marcus.

• Smart helped contain Butler. 29 is still a great output, but it was a very quiet 29.
• Smart on Butler then rotated JT to Vincent. I think that helped JT conserve energy on the defensive end.
• Al's return allowed TimeLord to get back to his free safety rim protection mode.
• The full starting lineup allowed them to return to the ways of "switch everything." This meant that Miami couldn't hunt out any big mismatches.
• On offense, both Al and Marcus helped, being ball-handlers who tend not to turn it over much. Less tangibly, there just seemed to be a lot less frenzy on offense.

Sidenote: If JT and JB can ever tighten their handle and/or improve their decision-making in traffic (when to dribble, when to pass), and thereby eliminate those 3-5 turnovers that seem to arise every game on their dribble. Yikes! Watch out NBA.

 

[DJnVa]

538 had the Celts at 70% to win the series coming in; 61% after the game 1 loss; and now 81% after the game 2 win. Currently at 68% to win the title which is insane.

MOre from 538.

Celtics current rating is 1756. That's 113 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the same distance between the Warriors and the Hornets.

Celtics full-strength rating is 1799, and 185 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the distance between the Warriors and the Wizards.

 

[bankshot1]

The Heat look overmatched when the Celts are full strength. They desperately need some combination of Lowry geting healthy, Bam scoring and Herro, the NBA's 6th man of the year, reappearing. Butler ain't enough to beat the Celts.

This ain't over yet, and the Celts have to avoid complacency, and continue to be manical on D, but damn did they make a statement last night.

 

[benhogan]

Al is a huge piece of this, and though he's playing very well, he's old for an NBA player and I don't even know if they'll keep him around after this year, or at most, after next year. But who knows. Certainly the other key guys are in good shape age-wise:

Tatum: 23
Brown: 25
Smart: 27 (that's amazing...feels like he's been here for two decades)
RWilliams: 24
White: 26
GWilliams: 23
Pritchard: 24

Al is 35. Nesmith (not a core guy but someone we all hope makes that next step forward in development) is 22.

Note: Their ages are what basketball-reference has associated with this season. Tatum, for example, is actually 24 but this is his 23-year old season based on his birthday (March 3).

The JAYs should continue to get better as they age, especially Tatum as he adds more muscle to his learning machine approach.

TL, Grant, PP will continue to improve as they earn minutes, fine-tune their roles and be better versions of themselves.

Horford can probably give them another 2yrs of quality role play, which he is basically what he is now... a role player. He's a long, switchy defense-first 4. This isn't to diminish what Al does, just that the C's can develop/find someone (plus a combo of Grant/Tatum/TL improvement) that will lessen Horford exit pain.

The 4-5yr run has started a year early and that credit needs to go to IME/Brad IMO

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Well one thing I've noticed is that on the Butler-Bam PnRs that kiiilllled the Cs in the past, they are switching and holding up. After all, Bam against JB or JT is not the mismatch it was in the bubble.

Second, with the Herro and Bam PnRs, they are playing drop coverage and letting Herro get his mid-range shots. They are preventing the ball from getting to Bam on the easy rolls and assuming that Herro is not going to make enough mid-range 2Ps to beat them.

But also, MIA is not making a great effort in getting Bam the ball in the middle of the court. Maybe they feel like it's not going to be productive. But boy am I glad to see that Bam is not hitting 15 footers all evening like he did in the bubble.

Agreed, and the high-post passing he was able to do (and threaten with) isn't in the plan either.

 

[lovegtm]

The Celtics struggle when teams are able to throw a wrench into the machinery. If I were Spoelstra, I'd be thinking about how to achieve that.

Agree, but it's hard to find wrenches when
- Tatum is handling blitzes and extra shading with ease
- the zone has gotten annihilated
- the Heat don't have any offensive wrinkles left beyond "score even more, Jimmy"

 

[PedroKsBambino]

That first sentence likely applies to most teams, but as to your second sentence . . . I was interested (and perhaps a bit wary) of how this version of the Celtics would respond to the Miami zone that killed them in the bubble. Well, Miami pulled it out last night and the Celtics crushed it. Two plays of note I recall:

• one was where Al got the ball in the middle of the zone, pretty much right at the FT line, which is supposed to be the weak part of the zone. No Heat came to challenge him, all staying out on the perimeter shooters. So Al simply hit what was probably the closest thing to a free throw that one can have in the live action of a game.
• the other was where they swung the ball to Jaylen at the right break, but he caught it on the move and slashed right thru the zone like butter.

Celtics really didn't have the pivot guy for the middle of the zone with Hayward injured. Al is that now, and there's separately been huge improvemnet in passing and decision making from Tatum and to a lesser degree Brown in those two years. Plus the shooting is better---so one you slice into zone the chance you get a three from PP/Grant is more a threat than it was in the bubble.

I wonder if you Nick Nurse things a bit and try a triangle and two or trapping Smart or Tatum regularly just to try and mix looks and force guys to do different things. What we saw last night offensively from Celts, which is the second time in three games we saw more or less similar offensive execution going back to game seven, just is terrifying to an opposing coach such that I'd be thinking hard about disrupting scheme-wise even if you take on different risks.

 

[ManicCompression]

Biggest thing that stood out to me was that the Celtics were just so much more disciplined on defense, i.e. not going for upfakes from Butler, Vincent, others and also not defending players who don't need to be defended, like Tucker. A lot of that was subbing Smart for Nesmith, but generally the team seemed like it learned its lesson from the night before.

That has huge knock on effects because it seems like Butler getting fouled is one of Miami's few reliable forms of offense - in Game one, whenever the Celtics would start scratching back, he'd kill momentum with a drawn foul or an and one - and it also doesn't put Cs players in a position where they're forced to be less aggressive (like Tatum was throughout the first game). Also, laying off non-offensive players like Martin and Tucker (who they were like aggressively closing out on in game one for some reason) puts a lot of pressure on the other Miami players. You saw it last night when Tucker meandered all the way to the free throw line and had all the space in the world to take a shot, but he just ineffectively passed out of it because why would PJ Tucker take something that's not a corner three or a floater?

One thing's for sure - this team learns after a loss and isn't going to make the same mistake over and over again. If they can stay that disciplined, that's like half the battle on the defensive end and it's a winning recipe whether they're hot from three or not.

 

[Red Averages]

With Smart and White back, I suspect PP's minutes get cut way down. Miami targeted him again a few times again in game 2, but it was such a blowout that it didn't matter much.

Who does Miami play if Tucker and Lowry are out?

 

[radsoxfan]

MOre from 538.

Celtics current rating is 1756. That's 113 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the same distance between the Warriors and the Hornets.

Celtics full-strength rating is 1799, and 185 points higher than the Warriors. That's approximately the distance between the Warriors and the Wizards.

They also have them as a 63 win team and +10 PPG over the course of a full season.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/celtics/

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

So much changed last night with the return of Al and Marcus.

• Smart helped contain Butler. 29 is still a great output, but it was a very quiet 29.
• Smart on Butler then rotated JT to Vincent. I think that helped JT conserve energy on the defensive end.
• Al's return allowed TimeLord to get back to his free safety rim protection mode.
• The full starting lineup allowed them to return to the ways of "switch everything." This meant that Miami couldn't hunt out any big mismatches.
• On offense, both Al and Marcus helped, being ball-handlers who tend not to turn it over much. Less tangibly, there just seemed to be a lot less frenzy on offense.

Sidenote: If JT and JB can ever tighten their handle and/or improve their decision-making in traffic (when to dribble, when to pass), and thereby eliminate those 3-5 turnovers that seem to arise every game on their dribble. Yikes! Watch out NBA.

With everyone healthy the trap D is almost worthless if they aren't able to corral a steal, because the Celtics ball movement from the moment it leaves Tatum's hands is typically good enough to get the ball back to him or another good shooter with a cleaner look than if the D had just played straight up.

Grant is an important piece but the thing he can't do yet that Al is godly at is making the right shoot/pass/dribble decision nearly every time he touches the ball. So Al as the screener basically opens up anything you want to do on offense—as long as the first pass out of the trap is delivered and handled cleanly.

As for the big picture/future of this group—while it's true that Al is aging, there is really no substitute for championship swagger, not just in terms of the confidence it gives you as a team, but also for the perception around the league. If you win this year, with the core really still ascending, you're on the list for awhile. From agents working to get their guys traded to a good situation, to the vet min/MLE types, and into buyout season—they will have a much better chance at getting the guys who fit what they do on team-friendly deals. And they still have assets and the ability to swing bigger deals (more White-sized deals, at least).

 

[chilidawg]

With Smart and White back, I suspect PP's minutes get cut way down. Miami targeted him again a few times again in game 2, but it was such a blowout that it didn't matter much.

Who does Miami play if Tucker and Lowry are out?

Per NBA.com, PP has the best Net Rating of any of the Celtics regulars in the playoffs, and the 3rd best DRating. If he's getting "hunted" so far it's not hurting them.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738

 

[Red Averages]

Per NBA.com, PP has the best Net Rating of any of the Celtics regulars in the playoffs, and the 3rd best DRating. If he's getting "hunted" so far it's not hurting them.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced/?sort=NET_RATING&dir=-1&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738

Thanks. Do you think this held up in Game 1? Or the 3rd quarter of Game 2?

 

[ManicCompression]

Per NBA.com, PP has the best Net Rating of any of the Celtics regulars in the playoffs, and the 3rd best DRating. If he's getting "hunted" so far it's not hurting them.

This is a great series for him because Miami doesn't have the kind of size to really exploit him. If they can keep his rotations to Butler at a minimum, his shooting is a really nice addition to the offensive mix.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Sidenote: If JT and JB can ever tighten their handle and/or improve their decision-making in traffic (when to dribble, when to pass), and thereby eliminate those 3-5 turnovers that seem to arise every game on their dribble. Yikes! Watch out NBA.

Ime doesn't want JT or JB to play in traffic and it doesn't make sense to. If a defense loads up on JB/JT; it's fairly straightforward to get the defense in rotation and find someone who is going to have a great shot. They just got to move the ball, which they've done spectacularly through the second half of the season.

I would bet when this series is over we find out that Bam’s been playing with various ailments that sapped his effectiveness. He had problems with his quad in the Hawks series and that type of injury tends to linger.
He doesn’t look as explosive or move as well as I remember he did

That's interesting. I didn't know about his quad so thanks for posting.