After yesterday's game, the 90s called and they want their ugly basketball back. (Not that what we saw yesterday was 90s basketball, but like the 90s it was ugly basketball).
With the Celtics having tied the series up at 2-2, each team having one once on the road, we are down to a 3 game series with Miami's advantage.
538 sees the Celtics as 64% likely to take the series and 54% likely to win the finals - in essence they are giving the Celtics a better than 80% chance of winning the finals... if they get there. I think that's wrong. This Miami series has become such a battle of attrition that whichever team emerges is going to walk right into a rested Warriors team that has been there before and is more ready to play.
Yesterday's game was bizarre i ways too numerous to count.
- The Celtics jumped out to an 18-1 lead and ultimately won by 20. Not sure that Miami ever got closer than 16 after that.
- The "winning quarters" stuff is BS, but Miami won its third quarter of the series - the garbage 4th, 30-26.
- A combination of stifling Celtics defense and Miami missing Herro/subpar Butler meant that the Celtics held the Heat to 52 points over 3 quarters. I think there are milk cartons with photos of Bam Adebayo (9 points, 6 rounds, only 5 shots from the field).
- Both teams shot terribly from the field, Miami 33.3%, Celtics 39.7%.
- Miami shot well from three (38.9%) while the Celtics shot terribly (23.5%) although much of Miami's good 3 shooting came in the garbage 4th.
- Tatum specifically and the Celtics more broadly got the whistles, with the Celtics shooting 32-38 from the line compared to Miami's 8-14. Tatum alone was 14-16.
- The Celtics crushed Miami on the glass, 60-39, usually one of Miami's keys to winning. The Celtics had 14 offensive boards to Miami's 29 defenive boards, while Miami had 10 offenive to Boston's 46 defensive.
- Miami had more points off turnovers (13 to 7) and fast break points (12 to 9) but those were small differences.
- The Celtics cut their turnover number in half, to 11, and only 4 in the first half.
In terms of player performances, this was also a weird one.
It was really the play of White, Rob, and Horford that keyed the Celtics fast start. White scored the first 7 Celtic points (putting the Cs up 7-0) supported by Rob and Al rebounding and defending. Brown started 0-5 and picked up 2 quick fouls in the first 5 minutes, while Tatum picked up a dumb foul and looked tentative in the offensive end.
But Tatum came around, putting up 12 points in the first quarter, largely due to getting to the line. Tatum finished the game with a weird but impressive performance, scoring 31 points on 8 of 16 from the field, 1 of 7 from three, and 14 of 16 from the line. He added 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks, with a manageable 3 turnovers.
Brown never really got it going, shooting 5 of 20 and 1 of 6 from three.
After WHite hit his first 3 shots, he hit only 1 of his next 11, and he shot 1 of 7 from three for the game. He did have 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, and a block against 3 turnovers.
Al had as monster a game as a player can have while taking only 2 shots from the field: 5 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 blocks, no turnovers.
Rob played only 19 miutes but had 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 blocks.
Pritchard is the only Celtic who shot well from 3 (3-6), the rest of the team shot 5 of 28. He scored 14 points and added 3 assists, a block, and a steal in 25 minutes.
My big concern going forward is injuries/attrition, which is taking its toll on both teams.
Celtic injury issues:
- Marcus Smart: sprained ankle in game 3, missed game 4.
- Rob Williams: played well in limited minutes yesterday, but was both noticeable limping, especially in the third quarter, and not having his usualy hops. He finished 3 lobs, but only one of them with a dunk.
- Jayson Tatum: He shot 1-7 from three in this one while having an otherwise strong game. A few of his misses were front rimmed. I think the shoulder may be an issue.
- Derrick White: Played 40 minutes yesterday, and grabbed at his hamstring at the very end before he came out. Ime left him out there for too long.
- Jaylen Brown: We haven't heard much about his hamstring, recently, but I mention it because he had some issues with it earlier in the playoffs.
Miami injury issues:
- Herro: missed game 4
- Butler: missed the second half of game 4 and did not looked like himself in game 3 or game 4
- Lowry: his return helped the Heat a lot in game 3, but he hasn't exactly looked like his old Celtic killer self.
My gut feeling is that if the Celtics' health can hold up, this is their series to lose, but whether the Celtics' health does hold up is an open question. The way Rob looked - despite his string play - is really worrisome.
