Celtics vs. Nets, Round 1 Discussion
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This is where I've been landing. If you look at this via the prism of other fanbases, I strongly suspect the Celtics are not anyone's preferred match-up. Its hard for teams to come up with a counter to a formidable defense except to lean into their playmakers which, in theory, is exactly what Boston wants. To be clear, they may well lose in the first round but it will be surprising if the Celtics don't give every opponent they face in these playoffs a hard time.
I would think the Heat. They’re a worse offensive team than Boston and have less players capable of generating on their own off the dribble. They can also hide Durant on Tucker in the corner so he can preserve energy on defense.
however, I don’t think it’s enough of a preference that Brooklyn would punt todays game
Nets can't stop a nose bleed. Let's light some incense and clear the demons of Kyrie from this team once and for all.
O0o0o0o!!! But what if we lose to the Nets!?!?!? Why would you want to face them!?!?!
Not happening. Paper tigers running into a buzz saw. This is the series that all NBA fans realize the Cs are for real. 15 years from now, we're looking back on this series like we did with the Patriots against the Rams, Steelers, or Raiders.
Thanks, Kyrie.
So it begins
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I want to hate Durant, but other than going to GS, he's never given me a reason to. A little prickly? Yep. But the dude always seems pretty honest.
Fuck Kyrie.
You mean like burner account honest?
I do admire him. The decision to play while injured against the Raptors was really dumb, but I pout that on the Warriors.
KD is thin skinned and too concerned with what people think about him.... He's also an all-time great player who generally seems like he's a pretty okay dude who just wants to be awesome at basketball.
I did think about the burner accounts. But considering his PG counterpart, and how he genuinely just seems to want to hoop, I have a hard time hating him.
That's setting the bar really, really low. I can't really hate him either (it's hard for me to be too angry at greatness, unless it repeatedly stands between my team and a title), but losing the conference finals to the 73 win Warriors and then JOINING them a few months later is a pansy ass move not befitting a player of his historical stature. The Athletic ranked him the 13th best player of all time, ESPN had him 12th and the Sporting News had him 10th. At age 27, he left his title contending team to play for the best team in the league and couldn't figure out why the entire NBA public (outside of the Bay Area) hated him for it. He's a transcendent talent with no weaknesses, he's never dogged it, his style is entertaining to watch and he's one of the most efficient and unstoppable high volume scorers of all time...but for better or worse, he's wired differently than the other guys in his class.
One mitigating thing for me about leaving OKC is we have all seen what a selfish dick Westbrook is.
Sure, but I don't think he's getting nearly the grief if he chooses to leave Westbrook for literally anywhere but the team that just won more regular season games than the Jordan Bulls.
For all the obvious reasons, this series makes me quite nervous. Of course the Celtics are playing at a very high level right now, and I am struggling to see how Brooklyn's suspect defense slows the Celts down.
March-April, Boston is averaging 119.7 points a game.
March-April, Brooklyn is allowing 114.7 points a game.
To put those numbers into perspective, if we look at the whole season, Minnesota led the league in scoring at 115.9 per game. Boston the past month-plus has averaged 3.8 points per game more than that. So Boston's offense has been the highest scoring by a LOT over the past month-plus. And conversely, the worst defense in the NBA over the course of the season was Houston's, allowing 118.2 per game. Brooklyn's 114.7 would rank seventh-worst in the league.
So how in the world are the Nets going to stop Boston? I don't think they can for a whole series. Maybe a game or two, but not for a whole series. The key, then, will be how well Boston stops/slows Brooklyn down. That will be hard, even though Boston had the NBA's best defense this year (just 104.5 points a game). Missing Rob Williams WILL be a major factor, make no mistake. And we all know that either Kyrie or Durant (or both) could go supernova at any time. So this series definitely worries me, and it really should concern any even semi-objective Celtics fan. Boston is better, and should win the series, but this is the one opening round matchup that has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. That said, I think Boston wins it in six.
March-April, Boston is averaging 119.7 points a game.
March-April, Brooklyn is allowing 114.7 points a game.
To put those numbers into perspective, if we look at the whole season, Minnesota led the league in scoring at 115.9 per game. Boston the past month-plus has averaged 3.8 points per game more than that. So Boston's offense has been the highest scoring by a LOT over the past month-plus. And conversely, the worst defense in the NBA over the course of the season was Houston's, allowing 118.2 per game. Brooklyn's 114.7 would rank seventh-worst in the league.
So how in the world are the Nets going to stop Boston? I don't think they can for a whole series. Maybe a game or two, but not for a whole series. The key, then, will be how well Boston stops/slows Brooklyn down. That will be hard, even though Boston had the NBA's best defense this year (just 104.5 points a game). Missing Rob Williams WILL be a major factor, make no mistake. And we all know that either Kyrie or Durant (or both) could go supernova at any time. So this series definitely worries me, and it really should concern any even semi-objective Celtics fan. Boston is better, and should win the series, but this is the one opening round matchup that has the potential to go sideways in a hurry. That said, I think Boston wins it in six.
The scheduling cuts both ways - Rob gets more time to recover, but Durant gets more rest between games.
Probably more significantly Simmons gets more practice time if indeed the rumors are true he will play in the series.
But the C’s are a well oiled machine right now and the Nets are still experimenting with parts. It’s a major question mark what your trade offs are with Simmons so it’s not a significant worry.
In a near must-win game at home, against a team that was without one of its best players, the Nets let the Cavs get within six with the ball deep into the fourth quarter last night. It'll probably take around120 points of offense to beat them on any given night, but is there any doubt that the Celts can get at least 120 against them any time they want?
Simmons is not even playing 3 on 3 yet unless I have missed reports. Not sure how he is going to enter into a playoff series at any point.
Well, though I only saw the 4Q of yesterday's game, seemed to me that Bruce Brown did a pretty passable Simmons impersonation.
Schematically, the Cs will be in much better shape if they can contain Kyrie without doubling him. CLE got scalded in the 4Q when it blitzed KD or Kyrie - BRK got the ball to Brown in the middle of the court and they were playing basically 3-2. Cs did a good on Kyrie when they last played them - from what I can tell, White did a good job on Kyrie as White guarded Kyrie the third most of any Net (Patty Mills was 1st and Dragic was second) and White gave up 0 points to Kryie (although BRK had 7 points during those matchups), according to NBA.com.
What could he have done in that scenario to not be considered a "pansy ass" - stay with the franchise that wouldn't pony up for Harden and instead traded him for some loose change? Stay and watch Russ waste possessions? Go to the Knicks? The Sacramento Kings? Seriously, what is the "non-pansy ass" move for KD in that scenario? IIRC, he took less money to play for the Warriors, which is the thing fans are always moaning at players to do. When Tom Brady does it, it's so the Pats can get better talent around him; when KD does it, it's emasculating. Got it.
These guys can't win - it was a once in a lifetime opportunity because of the cap spike. And I'm not sure he's "wired different" when Lebron has been engineering super teams since 2010, Kawhi has tried to do the same with the Clippers. There was Shaq to the Lakers, Kareem to the Lakers, Wilt Chamberlain to the Lakers (notice a pattern). If anything, KDs move is standard for superstars who aren't lucky enough to have a competent organization around them (like the Red Celts or the Spurs).
I think we are all forgetting how good Ben Simmons is. Bruce Brown is a fine player, and had a very good game, but he has nowhere near the impact of Simmons
Yes certainly agree with your statement and I think I mentioned elsewhere that if BRK gives Simmons the role that Bruce Brown has, they are way more dangerous than they are now.
However, my point - and sorry if I wasn't clear - was more schematic. When CLE blitzed KD or Kyrie, they got the ball to Brown in the middle of the court and had him make decisions, which from what I saw were pretty darn good. (I guess he's played PG at one point of his basketball life.) When CLE doubled, they were also hugged up on the other BRK scorer, so instead of playing 4 on 3, they were really playing 3 on 2 and Brown was killing them. Brown's line - 18 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists while shooting 2-6 from 3P was really important to BRK's win.
edit: my second point is that I hope the Cs can guard Kyrie one-on-one. Doubling him and KD makes it tough to defend.
Let's also not forget how important practice is and how hard it is to integrate with a totally new team. There is a reason offense has a strong seasonal component - guys take months to get into their groove and mesh with their teammates.
Given the optimistic reports post surgery, I'd expect game 5 as a very reasonable target for Rob.
Honestly 3 weeks isn't out of the question (game 2-3 range) if rehab is going without a hiccup. It's not like they are waiting for a ligament or meniscus to heal back together, just for things to calm down and then get his conditioning back. Whatever risk down the line (if any) he has with the partial meniscectomy isn't going to be changed by coming back after 3 weeks or 4 weeks.
Series looks stretched out for sure, though starting game 3 it's a pretty typical 1 on/1 off schedule. Extra time only early on.
Honestly 3 weeks isn't out of the question (game 2-3 range) if rehab is going without a hiccup. It's not like they are waiting for a ligament or meniscus to heal back together, just for things to calm down and then get his conditioning back. Whatever risk down the line (if any) he has with the partial meniscectomy isn't going to be changed by coming back after 3 weeks or 4 weeks.
Series looks stretched out for sure, though starting game 3 it's a pretty typical 1 on/1 off schedule. Extra time only early on.
Let's not pretend that KD didn't have great options. San Antonio was an option that would have garnered him zero hate. Miami was an option that maybe would have got a little hate. Boston would have gotten hate, because Boston, but no one would have called his success here illegitimate. Washington was another option, where he would have been loved for going home, but couldn't really compete with the other options talent-wise.
KD had every right to go to the Warriors and he didn't screw anyone in the process of doing so, unlike stars that demand trades. But let's not rewrite history and pretend that he didn't have good options that wouldn't have garnered him the hate that going to the Warriors did.
These are "great options"?
- It's splitting hairs to say that it's cowardly to join up with the Warriors, but not with the Kawhi Spurs, a team that won the championship only two years earlier
- Miami - yeah, people really loved when Lebron left a small market to go to the Heat. Also, that Heat team sucked. So it's better for Durant to go to a team in a big market as long as it's shitty?
- Washington - famously great ownership. Would've been very smart for KD to waste away in DC instead of playing with one of the most talented and least selfish teams of all time.
You're making stuff up here - yes, KD could have done any number of things, but with the money equal for leaving OKC, why wouldn't a great player choose to play in a great city with other great players for a great coach and an ownership group that spends?
As noted above, he had plenty of excellent options. What Lebron and Kawhi did was completely different - Miami before Lebron had won 47 and 43 games. The Clippers before Kawhi won 48 and 42 games. They went to teams at the bottom of the playoff picture and elevated them to title contenders, and they helped build those teams (Lebron brought Bosh, Kawhi brought George). I'm not killing Durant for building a super team (and that's definitely what Lebron and Kawhi did), because Durant didn't build shit - he just joined one of the best teams in history already assembled (in his prime) and it broke the league for a couple of years. That's not what Shaq did (the Lakers had won just 1 playoff series in the 5 years prior to his arrival), nor Kareem (the Lakers missed the playoffs the year before he arrived, and the first year after). I'll give you Wilt.
I'm not saying he didn't have the right to, but the fans and media have just as much right to take his decision into account when discussing his place in history. At the height of his career, he left a really good situation (not like Lebron in Cleveland) and chose to join with the consensus title favorite (before his arrival). That's something role players and guys at the end of their careers do, and it's ok to ding Durant for that.
*edit - and it's definitely ok to laugh at him forever for not understanding why the move bothered people. Lebron eventually admitted that the decision was a ridiculous thing to do, I don't believe Durant has ever made a similar statement. He went to the best team so he could win a title, like washed up guys and role players have done forever. Don't make excuses, own it.
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Assuming no Simmons and no TL, how will the Celts match up defensively in their base defense, notably who’s on KI and KD?
I'd probably put Brown on Irving. Let Smart chase Curry around and hope that Brown's length makes it difficult on Kyrie. Durant, I don't know. I imagine we start with Horford, with Grant and Tatum getting their chance as well? Tatum is probably the best option, but he needs to be saved for offense as much as possible (and obviously kept out of foul trouble).
In the March game, they had Marcus on Kyrie, JB on Curry, and JT on KD. Horford was playing Drummond and TL was guarding Brown. The very first play, Horford switched on to KI and forced KI to throw a TO. The Cs haven't playing the same switching coverage without TL so it will be interesting to see what defensive scheme they will be in.
As I responded, how were those options excellent?
To me, you're making a difference out of the order of operations, which I don't really find persuasive. I don't see the difference between the Warriors already having a core in place vs. Lebron assembling a core with Bosh and Wade (and in a city where they could easily attract FAs) or George doing the same - are we supposed to want or expect players to be GMs now?
I just think isolating KD as a "pansy ass" because he didn't assemble a team in the preferred order is kind of strange. It's a distinction without a difference. If he paired up with Lebron and went to the Knicks that summer, is that all of a sudden better? If not, look at the rest of this FA class: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2016-nba-free-agent-tracker-where-players-are-going-whos-still-available/ So now it's KDs fault that he didn't become a FA at the same time as other great players to assemble a super team? A better option was to team up with Andre Drummond and Nick Batum? Or go to the Heat (seriously, the nationally beloved Heat) and strong-arm them to trade for Damiam Lillard or some other disgruntled small market player? The narrow lane for what's acceptable seems to change with the narrative - what kind of competitive human would want to stay with an OKC franchise that wouldn't pay for talent?
With how much the Celtics switch, I am not sure how much it matters whether Smart is on Curry or Kyrie, or whether Tatum or Horford are on KD.
You really don’t see a difference between going to a new team and recruiting some other stars to join you, to then see if you can go out and win a title, and joining an already established title winner that had just nearly laid claim to “greatest team of all time”?
I assume they are being coy about Simmons' availability the same way NFL teams are about injury availability to make the other team have to think about it while game planning.
I'm more worried about Curry and Mills going nuclear from 3pt range than I am Simmons being ready to do anything at playoff intensity with a back injury.
I'm more worried about Curry and Mills going nuclear from 3pt range than I am Simmons being ready to do anything at playoff intensity with a back injury.
Staying with OKC was a perfectly reasonable option. They were a title contender with him, and with Westbrook remained a playoff team (which is pretty much the fate of every title contender that loses it's best player, except for the dynasty warriors). The Spurs were a fine option, although you're right he would've have gotten some shit for joining a team already near the top, it's not the same as joining the team that just beat you on their way to a record breaking season. Obviously Boston would have been fine, joining a young team on the rise but clearly not at the top yet. The Heat are an interesting case - excellent management, but that team was on the way down, and I don't remember exactly when everyone knew that Bosh was done (15/16 was the last time he played). The Wizards were not a serious option for him, I think. He also took meetings with the Clippers - that would have been an excellent place to go.
The Warriors weren't the only team with plenty of cap space. To pretend he didn't have some great options is ludicrous.
The Warriors weren't the only team with plenty of cap space. To pretend he didn't have some great options is ludicrous.
+1
One way to think about what PP's usage might be is that Ime might play him only when Kyrie is out, with White and Smart getting more minutes as a result.
Dopes -can we please break out any non-series discussion. No problem with the conversation but people debating an athlete's career choices has no logical endpoint and even less relevance to this series. Kevin Durant clearly gives no Fs what we or anyone else thinks of his choice of employers, we can't change history and in my experience, few of these threads wind up with people agreeing.
From where I sit, its hard to see the Nets winning this series even if TL doesn't return. The Celtics size overall and their defensive approach means that the Nets are essentially hoping their elite shotmakers can overcome their other limitations and it just doesn't feel like Brooklyn has enough offense outside of Durant/Irving/Curry to lighten the load. KD in any series is scary - that is undeniable.
From where I sit, its hard to see the Nets winning this series even if TL doesn't return. The Celtics size overall and their defensive approach means that the Nets are essentially hoping their elite shotmakers can overcome their other limitations and it just doesn't feel like Brooklyn has enough offense outside of Durant/Irving/Curry to lighten the load. KD in any series is scary - that is undeniable.
Even the "recruiting other players to join you" path can lead to a significant number of fans hating on you. There seem to be two cardinal rules when it comes to NBA free agency.
1. Don't join an existing super-team if you're a superstar player. Durant broke this rule in a lot of people's minds.
2. Don't "conspire" with other superstar players to build a super-team. LeBron broke this rule in a lot of people's minds (in Miami).
For better or for worse, fans like to see great teams built "organically", with the GM the driving force behind it, convincing individual players to sign. I don't recall the Celtics getting a lot of grief about their Big 3 era because they had Pierce, wanted Garnett, Garnett wouldn't agree to a trade unless they got another guy, they got Ray, and then Garnett agreed to join. Fans have less of an issue with that because it seems more "natural" and in-line with how they think teams have been built in the past.
Durant could definitely have gone to the Spurs and no one would have cared. They had Kawhi but they'd been swept in the WCF. Spinning it as "I'm joining forces with Kawhi to unseat the Warriors Dynasty" would have been no problem. But he went to a two-time NBA finals team that could have been two-time defending NBA champs had it not been for Draymond's suspension and Steph's ejection. They didn't need Durant to get over the hump, so people saw it as him ring-chasing in a way that was unbecoming of a player of his caliber.
Edit: Sorry, DeJesus, I was in the middle of writing this when you posted. You're right, it's not a discussion that needs to continue here.
Horford also gets more rest between games and we have all witnessed the difference between rested Horford and overworked Horford.
(There is no such thing as superstition) I think this will be pretty easy. The Nets just don't really play team defense or team offense other than passing out of doubles. That is fine against the Cavs because they're not very good and made plenty of mistakes on their own but will fail against a team that plays cohesively on both ends like Boston.
Kyrie and KD are world-class at one-one-ones and are going to get buckets, but the Nets aren't going to get easy points against the Cs like they would other teams. Similarly, the Celtics are more likely to take advantage of defensive lapses by finding the open man or making a cut and finishing. Unless the Nets can somehow get Boston to NOT play the way they have been for the last few months (with or without Rob) I think the Celtics can handle this team.
Kyrie and KD are world-class at one-one-ones and are going to get buckets, but the Nets aren't going to get easy points against the Cs like they would other teams. Similarly, the Celtics are more likely to take advantage of defensive lapses by finding the open man or making a cut and finishing. Unless the Nets can somehow get Boston to NOT play the way they have been for the last few months (with or without Rob) I think the Celtics can handle this team.
I've been thinking about this. When on his game, KI dances and moves around anyone with very little opposing defenses can do to move the needle. In that moment, what is lost by using PP on KI? You lose nothing on defense, because he's not defensible. If everyone is looking like a traffic cone, put an actual traffic cone on him and see if PP can make a few buckets, trading offense essentially.
To be clear, if any other defense approach is preventing KI from going supernova then I agree with you. But as an oddball approach, PP on KI might be interesting for a short period, especially if he is hitting a couple of 3s himself to offset KI.
Or this line of thinking could be further evidence of why it was good that I decided not to coach the kids basketball team.
What rumors are these? He isn’t even participating in on-court work with teammates yet. He hasn’t played in a year and his first pre-season game with his new team is going to be in a crucial playoff game? I’ll eat a log of Rocco’s shit if Ben Simmons takes the floor in these playoffs.