CFB Coach Carousel

mauf

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Barring something unexpected, USC and LSU will almost certainly be the top two jobs available at the end of the year, and likely an upgrade for anyone not named Saban, Day, and a few others. What are the true "top-tier" college coaching gigs? Put another way, what schools would a successful coach never leave in order to take another college job (leaving for the NFL is different).

Bama, UGA, LSU, tOSU, Texas, USC, ND? Anywhere else? Is Clemson at that level yet?
Looking at history, I’d say Alabama, Oklahoma, and USC stand above the rest, with tOSU arguably part of that group also. All have enjoyed success for many decades under multiple coaches; it’s reasonable to assume those jobs have structural advantages (esp. recruiting) that others don’t.

Georgia and Texas seem like they should be part of that group, but the modern (post-integration) results aren’t there. Notre Dame hasn’t won a title in 30+ years and doesn’t have the recruiting cachet it once did. Clemson won a title under Danny Ford but wasn’t part of any serious discussion of CFB powers before Dabo; they’ll be elite as long as he’s there, but they’ll need success post-Dabo to demonstrate they have the structural programs these other programs enjoy.

You could certainly argue that three titles this century, with three different coaches, puts LSU in that top tier. I’m not sold, and the recent coaching turnover there would have me preferring a program like Texas A&M, which imo is similarly advantaged and has more reasonable expectations. (I think Florida is the most obvious comp to LSU, but UF’s natural advantages are easier to see.)
 

JCizzle

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Barring something unexpected, USC and LSU will almost certainly be the top two jobs available at the end of the year, and likely an upgrade for anyone not named Saban, Day, and a few others. What are the true "top-tier" college coaching gigs? Put another way, what schools would a successful coach never leave in order to take another college job (leaving for the NFL is different).

Bama, UGA, LSU, tOSU, Texas, USC, ND? Anywhere else? Is Clemson at that level yet?
I'd add Oklahoma. Maybe Michigan and Florida?
 

luckiestman

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I'd add Oklahoma. Maybe Michigan and Florida?
I was going to say Michigan. I also have no idea how Miami is bad for this long. I get why FSU has been bad; I dont get the Coral Gables stuff. Miami should get the best players in Florida.
 

JCizzle

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I was going to say Michigan. I also have no idea how Miami is bad for this long. I get why FSU has been bad; I dont get the Coral Gables stuff. Miami should get the best players in Florida.
Great point on Miami. There's really no excuse.
 

Plantiers Wart

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Barring something unexpected, USC and LSU will almost certainly be the top two jobs available at the end of the year, and likely an upgrade for anyone not named Saban, Day, and a few others. What are the true "top-tier" college coaching gigs? Put another way, what schools would a successful coach never leave in order to take another college job (leaving for the NFL is different).

Bama, UGA, LSU, tOSU, Texas, USC, ND? Anywhere else? Is Clemson at that level yet?
Michigan probably close to those, Oklahoma, and possibly Florida.

edit - beaten to it while posting.......
 

luckiestman

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Miami has stadium issues since the dumpy Orange Bowl closed.
Good point about the stadium. I used to live directly beside Doak (@FSU) and the stadium being right on campus is awesome. That would suck not having that atmosphere even though Coral Gables is generally miles better than Tally or Gainesville.
 

Ale Xander

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Florida, and including South Florida, (and OH and PA) recruits really get split in many ways. It's a much different story in Louisiana.
 

Royal Reader

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I'm really not sure Alabama is *that" great a job, structurally. Small, poor state with a decent in-state rival. Just happen to have had Nick Saban. I could easily see a couple decades of futility if they get the first post Saban hire wrong.
 

luckiestman

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I'm really not sure Alabama is *that" great a job, structurally. Small, poor state with a decent in-state rival. Just happen to have had Nick Saban. I could easily see a couple decades of futility if they get the first post Saban hire wrong.
A bit of evidence against your theory is that they were able to get Nick Saban. I also dont think the overall wealth of the State is that important for college football.
 

Ale Xander

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I also dont think the overall wealth of the State is that important for college football.
Yup. Cases in point, LA, MI, SC, OK, and OH.

how many recent nattys have AL and SC won and how many have CA, NY, CT, NJ, and MA won?
 

Plantiers Wart

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A bit of evidence against your theory is that they were able to get Nick Saban. I also dont think the overall wealth of the State is that important for college football.
The facilities are incredible. Built up for Saban, but they remain after he rides off into the sunset.

One I forgot to mention was Oregon. Has to be close to a top ten job, as long as Phil Knight and Nike stay involved.
 

mauf

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I'm really not sure Alabama is *that" great a job, structurally. Small, poor state with a decent in-state rival. Just happen to have had Nick Saban. I could easily see a couple decades of futility if they get the first post Saban hire wrong.
Saban stepped in after the program spent a decade in the wilderness and was quickly able to reestablish greatness — because the talent on hand was better than it looked, and the recruiting networks that had been built over decades were still mostly intact. Bob Stoops did something similar at Oklahoma. So did Pete Carroll at USC. That was my basis for putting those three programs in the top tier (and as I said, tOSU arguably belongs too).

None of that guarantees that Bama won’t struggle post-Saban. It just means the program has structural advantages that even blue-chip competitors like Georgia do not.
 

LoweTek

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Florida, and including South Florida, (and OH and PA) recruits really get split in many ways. It's a much different story in Louisiana.
Miami hasn't been good for a while. Their disadvantage is they are private whereas UCF, UF, USF, FSU are all public state universities.There is a lot of competition for prized recruits in Florida. A surprising number of them stay close to home. A lot of good recruits from Central Florida for example, choose UCF even though often they have their pick among Florida and SEC schools. There really is no Florida school not off its game of late. FSU, UF, Miami, UCF are all struggling for relevance.
 

johnmd20

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A bit of evidence against your theory is that they were able to get Nick Saban. I also dont think the overall wealth of the State is that important for college football.
It's actually the opposite, too.

Saban is a God in Alabama. A coach does as well at USC and they aren't a God. They are beloved, but also a decent sized fish in a huge pond. Saban is the apex predator in the pond that is Alabama.
 

AlNipper49

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I think with college athletes getting some form of compensation now that if Saban can stay for a few more years there will be such dump trucks full of cash rotating into that place that it will not matter - they’ll have their pick of coaches. Saban also owns half of Tuscaloosa, he’s been smartly using his sponsorship last to go for equity rather than cash.
 

fairlee76

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A bit of evidence against your theory is that they were able to get Nick Saban. I also dont think the overall wealth of the State is that important for college football.
I know this is not how you're using "important," but the wealth of a state sure seems inversely correlated with how passionate a team's fanbase is and how vocal citizens might be in their support for spending state funds on a football program. LSU seems a prime example and one I am thankful for as an out-of-stater. I've only been to two games there but there are few spots where I would rather be on a home game Saturday night.
 

Zososoxfan

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I'd definitely add Florida to the list. 5 years ago FSU was also on the list, but...that's been disproven.

It's funny because when people mention Michigan my immediate reaction was lol no. But the question implies that if a coach is successful at one of these schools they wouldn't consider leaving. And while the premise is a helluva longshot while the OSU death star remains fully operational, it's probably true that Michigan has the right blend of facilities, following, $, history, and small pondedness to fit the bill.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Apparently, The Athletic did a survey of 100 people working in various capacities in college football and came up with this ranking of top coaching gigs

https://theathletic.com/2827321/2021/09/15/what-are-the-top-5-jobs-in-college-football-we-polled-over-100-coaches-and-staffers-to-find-out/

1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. ND
10. Florida

Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Oregon, FSU, Penn State were the next few.

Those top 6 seem right to me, although I'd probably move USC up to #3-if USC's NIL opportunities dont become a massive draw for recruits, someone is messing up badly.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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Apparently, The Athletic did a survey of 100 people working in various capacities in college football and came up with this ranking of top coaching gigs

https://theathletic.com/2827321/2021/09/15/what-are-the-top-5-jobs-in-college-football-we-polled-over-100-coaches-and-staffers-to-find-out/

1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. ND
10. Florida

Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Oregon, FSU, Penn State were the next few.

Those top 6 seem right to me, although I'd probably move USC up to #3-if USC's NIL opportunities dont become a massive draw for recruits, someone is messing up badly.
UGA needs to prove its recent success can be sustained without Kirby Smart. Dawgs’ fans hope we’ll be waiting decades to find out. I don’t doubt that Kirby can sustain the program’s excellence as long as he wants. Same goes for Dabo at Clemson.

Texas’s ranking aligns with its fans’ expectations, but not with its modern historic performance. I believe it’s not as advantaged as it seems.

USC’s ranking is too low, and reflects an understandable recency bias. With the move to the SEC coming, I’d say the same about OU. (Being in the Big XII is a minus, but a new coach would know that’s a short-term proposition, and I doubt most of the people polled took that into account.)

The rest of the list looks about right, which means I guess I was wrong about LSU.
 

luckiestman

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UGA needs to prove its recent success can be sustained without Kirby Smart. Dawgs’ fans hope we’ll be waiting decades to find out. I don’t doubt that Kirby can sustain the program’s excellence as long as he wants. Same goes for Dabo at Clemson.

Texas’s ranking aligns with its fans’ expectations, but not with its modern historic performance. I believe it’s not as advantaged as it seems.

USC’s ranking is too low, and reflects an understandable recency bias. With the move to the SEC coming, I’d say the same about OU. (Being in the Big XII is a minus, but a new coach would know that’s a short-term proposition, and I doubt most of the people polled took that into account.)

The rest of the list looks about right, which means I guess I was wrong about LSU.

I don’t know if I agree about UGA. When I lived in Tallahassee there were so many UGA fans (these were ~ 40 year old black men that I was working with, I was much younger). So this got me paying attention more to Georgia and I came to realize this is a prestige job way more than I had known it to be.
 

Plantiers Wart

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Apparently, The Athletic did a survey of 100 people working in various capacities in college football and came up with this ranking of top coaching gigs

https://theathletic.com/2827321/2021/09/15/what-are-the-top-5-jobs-in-college-football-we-polled-over-100-coaches-and-staffers-to-find-out/

1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. ND
10. Florida

Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Oregon, FSU, Penn State were the next few.

Those top 6 seem right to me, although I'd probably move USC up to #3-if USC's NIL opportunities dont become a massive draw for recruits, someone is messing up badly.
That's a good list. I think we had named all those schools. The ranking goes beyond just recent success - it looks at recruiting base, in-state competition, facilities, boosters, etc. A superstar coach can get a program flying, but can a program succeed after they leave?

UGA has incredible facilities. The only real competition in-state is G Tech - Best conference, great boosters, it's a sustaining job.

USC lacks the facilities that other top programs do. Stadium isn't on campus. And as for NIL in LA, there are tons of pro athletes head of you in line...

LSU is a tremendous job. The facilities are incredible. I think the Honey Badger built some of them in the recent past.

Texas is just an insanely good job - except for the intense pressure to go undefeated every year. The facilities, the boosters, now the conference, the money from the Longhorn Network deal. I'd actually consider it #1.

FWIW - Northwestern has amazing facilities as well - top 5 for sure. So does South Carolina.
 

Ale Xander

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USC lacks the facilities that other top programs do. Stadium isn't on campus. And as for NIL in LA, there are tons of pro athletes head of you in line...
Stadium is basically adjacent. It's not BC, but it's a lot closer than UCLA and Miami have theirs.
 

canderson

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They'll hire Jeff Traylor (or Art Briles, they'd grab him in a meth-head heartbeat if the board would OK it and I bet they would).
 

Awesome Fossum

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I have no idea, but obviously that would change my hot take. Although seeing as it took charges of false imprisonment for Mike Leach to finally wear out his welcome in Lubbock, my bet is that it has more to do with losing to K-State.
 

Senator Donut

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They're gonna lose the rest of their games and probably working on hiring their coach now. Might as well pull the trigger.
They’re big underdogs in their remaining games for sure. I guess if you’re 100% convinced you need to make a change, it’s better for all parties to do it immediately, but I’m not sure what kind of hiring power Tech has. There are already two huge job openings (LSU and USC) plus, I don’t think the new Big 12 is going to be thought of as a power conference.
 

mauf

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They’re big underdogs in their remaining games for sure. I guess if you’re 100% convinced you need to make a change, it’s better for all parties to do it immediately, but I’m not sure what kind of hiring power Tech has. There are already two huge job openings (LSU and USC) plus, I don’t think the new Big 12 is going to be thought of as a power conference.
Tech hasn’t won a conference title since 1976, when they were in the old SWC. It’s a low-end P5 program; they’ll be picking from a slate of candidates similar to what programs like BC, Wake Forest, or Oregon State get when they have openings. I don’t think the impending departure of Oklahoma and Texas changes that much.

One more win would make Tech bowl eligible for the first time since 2017. With four ranked opponents left to play, that’s unlikely to happen, but if the administration is ready to move on, acting now ensures that their decision won’t be an unpopular one.
 

Zososoxfan

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Apparently, The Athletic did a survey of 100 people working in various capacities in college football and came up with this ranking of top coaching gigs

https://theathletic.com/2827321/2021/09/15/what-are-the-top-5-jobs-in-college-football-we-polled-over-100-coaches-and-staffers-to-find-out/

1. Bama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas
5. LSU
6. USC
7. Clemson
8. Oklahoma
9. ND
10. Florida

Michigan, Texas A&M, Miami, Oregon, FSU, Penn State were the next few.

Those top 6 seem right to me, although I'd probably move USC up to #3-if USC's NIL opportunities dont become a massive draw for recruits, someone is messing up badly.
Not a subscriber. That said, while most of that list looks fine I'm puzzled by a couple of things. First, why is Clemson considered such a great gig? I'd put several schools behind it ahead. My list goes like this:

1. UGA
2. OSU
3. LSU
4. Bama
5. ND
6. Texas
7. Florida
8. USC
9. Oregon

UGA gets top spot by virtue of being in a talent-rich area with minimal competition, in the lucrative SEC. Dawgs are by far the most popular draw in town from what I can tell. OSU gets a close second, for mostly the same reasons. Big 10 money is less than SEC money, but competition is less, so pretty darn close IMO. LSU slots in third for most of the same reasons as above. Slight ding for being SEC West. Bama comes in number 4 because Auburn is a legit second in-state program--good luck to whoever follows Saban. ND's unique independence, national draw, and coast-to-coast following earns it this big spot. I had a lot of trouble ranking the next 5, but here's why I have it the way I do. Texas has a lot of in-state competition and OU to deal with, but when the program is doing well almost every Texas kid still wants to go there. They also have to compete with the Cowboys for following. Florida comes in next because it's the SEC program of Florida (the State). Lots of competition for talent and attention from FSU, Miami, and UGA, but when Florida calls kids listen, and when Florida plays people watch. USC comes in next because of the relative weakness of the PAC 12. Oregon comes next because of the same reason, plus the unique Nike connection.

The schools that didn't make the list above (OU, Michigan, PSU, FSU, Miami, TAMU) are all dealing with legit in-state competition (N.B. for OU, I'm considering Texas an in-state recruiting competitor). This group includes 3 conferences and varying levels of in-state talent, but I think the conference money and local talent by and large balance them out. In other words, FSU and Miami have much better access to talent than the others, but also compete in the ACC which holds them back. OTOH, OU and TAMU play in the SEC, but are clearly behind Bama, LSU, UGA, and arguably Florida. Michigan and PSU have in-state rivals picking off some talent but also get good Big 10 money.

Not sure where I put Clemson. If I had to say, I'd put OU, Michigan, PSU, and FSU a notch ahead of Clemson, Miami, and TAMU.
 

canderson

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Gary Patterson resigning from TCU. Second-longest tenured head coach. He was going to get fired so he’s getting out in front of it.
 

BigMike

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Gary Patterson resigning from TCU. Second-longest tenured head coach. He was going to get fired so he’s getting out in front of it.
Wow, Legitimate Hall of Fame coach. Is only 61, maybe he has lost the fire. But If he still wants it , and I have a big coaching opening, I take a long look here
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Wow, Legitimate Hall of Fame coach. Is only 61, maybe he has lost the fire. But If he still wants it , and I have a big coaching opening, I take a long look here
TCU had been to a total of 17 bowl games between 1896 and his first season as head coach. They went to 17 during his 20 years there, going 11-6. I understand that there has been a proliferation of bowl games, but still. He totally reinvented that program. I'd hire the dude in a second.
 

Humphrey

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Usually when a guy moves down after getting fired from a big program, it isn't for long; they either flame out for good there or jump back into the spotlight.

Then, there's Frank Solich. Went 58-19 at Nebraska (wouldn't they kill for that these days) and got canned. Went to Ohio U and never left. 16 years there until retiring last summer.
 

B H Kim

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Ah you’re right, I misread. Thanks!

Texas Texh is going to name Baylor assistant Joey McGuire its new coach today.
Hevesy was OL coach and “running game coordinator.” UF doesn’t have a designated OC, but he was basically sharing the job with the receivers coach.