Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

[HomeRunBaker]

I think that we shouldn't celebrate the defensive game plan too much. Sure, they kept Simmons and Embiid from doing too much damage. And the transition defense was pretty damn solid.

But it was IMO pretty damn lucky that Philly was in the midst of a rusty brickfest last night. Plenty of good looks from three, from what I saw. They won't shoot that badly again.

Yeah I agree. It was a complete no-show from both a defensive effort view and shooting the 3 although you cannot completely disregard our efforts in running their shooters off the 3-point line.

I didn't see many open looks for Reddick and Belinelli and I think that will continue. The C's know how dangerous they are and seem to be deciding to concede some twos from others in the interest of shutting the sharpshooters down. If Philly wants to win the series guys like Covington, Saric and Ilyasova will need to hit some threes. Possible, but not a certainty.

The other thing about our transition defense is that it is real easy to defend the break when you are knocking down all your shots. It is those perimeter misses that lead to long rebounds and numbers the other way. The Sixers feast on their spot-up shooters knocking down these shots in a delayed break with the ball in Simmons hands......these opportunities are non-existent when we are shooting like we were last night.

Winner of Game 2 goes to Philly with the series momentum.

Game 2 is going to determine this series imo. I liked us to give the Sixers trouble in one of these first two but a loss on Thursday sets us up for an elimination Game 5, which was my original prediction. However, a Celtics win shows that the Sixers adjustments were not effective and that they would need to win at least one of the final two in Boston after failing in the obvious Game 2 bounce back spot.

 

[benhogan]

Defending Simmons, Embiid, and Philly's 3-point shooters is what the Celtics need to do. That probably means defending Simmons and Embiid 1-on-1. Some combination of Baynes and Horford on Embiid and Horford, Ojeleye, and Smart on Simmons.

Offensively, I think the keys for the Celtics will be Horford and Rozier. Horford because the half court offense needs to run through him and when he's at C he needs to pull Embiid out to the perimeter by knocking down 3s. Rozier because he's the Celtics' scorer who the Sixers don't really have the right matchup for. The Celtics will need all of their scorers to get it done, of course, but Rozier is the one who will have some opportunity.

Credit where credit is due. Eddie J nailed it yesterday.

Also shout out to SamRayNot, who stepped in with some independent commentary. Calling Al Horford just as good as Simmons/Embiid at the moment in a playoff environment, makes more sense now after watching Game 1. While Simmons projects as a transformative player, he isn't there yet and his FT/lack of outside shooting can be game planned for by Brad.

 

[LondonSox]

Notable despite the ideas posted horford barely guarded Simmons at all

Simmons dropped from 71 to 67% FT in the playoffs with his 6-11 last night, probably regressing to the 56% he established in 340 fta in the regular season. Anecdotally, fwiw, I didn't like his release or form on most of them, and he banged a couple in that could easily have rimmed out.

He's still probably not hackable as a full-time tactic, but neither is it a great thing to have your primary ballhandler / #2 guy in USG that shaky from the FT stripe in a very evenly-matched playoff series.

Aside from the pacing impacts etc, 56% is still a better PPP than average.
Also it seems Simmons has tweaked at least his ft since the playoffs. He is finally turned vs straight on at the line. No fricking clue what the delay was but anyway I think there's a chance he's modestly better than he was. But I'd for sure find out if I had to if I were the Celtics.

If Philly wants to make this work, they'll need to diversify their offense. Running guys off screens isnt getting them enough open looks and neither are postups. The former will only get more difficult with Brown coming back. The latter won't be consistently viable unless the Celtics are forced to send a double team.

I remember remarkably few times where I saw them get the Celtics defense in rotation bad enough that they got a wide open shot. That's incredible considering that you would think an Embiid-Simmons pick and roll ought to result in weakside help every time.

Am I remembering wrong?[/QUOTE
Yup according to the wonderful @jacobegoldstein the shot quality of the sixers was better than the Celtics for the game. They were getting good looks but BRICK then BRiCK you get the idea

Reddick on Tatum did indeed seem like a poor decision, especially when Smart was starting. Not knowing if Jaylen will be there for game 2 will put a bit of uncertainty in the game planning for Philly. If I were the Celtics I'd not give out anything more than "he's a game time decision". I expect Philly to come out and play with much greater intensity in Game 2, and I think we'll need Jaylen to hold them off. Brown in the lineup gives them nowhere to hide Reddick.

Winner of Game 2 goes to Philly with the series momentum.

This is absolutely true. Covington was off, a rare defensive sloppy lazy game and Simmons was bad too. I think the idea was for Simmons to help off the non shooter more but he didn't, which left Redick or Tatum looking utterly crap.
I think Redick is more hidable than belinelli but Baynes two 3s are a decent deal because it helped (plus horford) pulling embiid out of the paint.

If you can say to Redick stick with him and don't give him a three, chase him off the line and let Joel clean up the drive that's something he can handle, but not if embiid is on the three point line.

Balinelli is just bad, awareness, effort, ability

 

[riboflav]

He's turned... but still uses a thumb tuck and there's no energy transfer. Legs are locked, no knee bend. It's a mess.

 

[the moops]

Notable despite the ideas posted horford barely guarded Simmons at all.

Someone must have the numbers, but from my watching, Hoford covered Simmons a bunch .

 

[terrynever]

"Beat LA" chant recalled by Philly scribe. Lot of respect back in those days between Boston and Philly. Definitely a shining moment for Celtics fans:

http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/mike_sielski/sixers-celtics-nba-playoffs-beat-la-t-shirts-76ers-1982-playoffs-danny-ainge-kevin-mchale-julius-erving-20180501.html

 

[bankshot1]

The funnier, more pointed, more partisan, and more prophetic chant was the "See you Sunday" Garden chant late in Game 5 (Celts down 3-1) and the look on Billy C's face, as in "not this shit again".

 

[benhogan]

Someone must have the numbers, but from my watching, Hoford covered Simmons a bunch .

Yes he did.

Horford covered Simmons when Al was on the court with Baynes (on Embiid). But the Celtics switch off screens/picks as the Sixers run their halfcourt offense...but whatever, London has his hands full.

Al also played 33mins to Simmons 42mins

 

[terrynever]

The funnier, more pointed, more partisan, and more prophetic chant was the "See you Sunday" Garden chant late in Game 5 (Celts down 3-1) and the look on Billy C's face, as in "not this shit again".

It is amazing how home court can impact a series. It may be the 76ers' only hope this year, too.

 

[snowmanny]

37 years ago today was a beautiful sunny Friday in Boston. Celtics were away and down to Philly 3-2 in the ECF after coming back from like 6 down in the last minute in Game 5 and I think only one other NBA team had come back from 3-1 down at that point in history.* Celtics had lost something like 16 road games in a row to the 76'ers and fell behind by 17. But Cedric Maxwell took out an old man in the stands and rookie Kevin McHale blocked rookie Andrew Toney's shot in the last minute and the rest is history. Just a spectacular game.

*Celtics vs 76'ers, 1968

 

[jmcc5400]

In my sports life, the only sporting moments that rivaled the intensity and drama of the 1981 ECF were the Sox-MFY ALCS showdowns in 2003-4. It is hard to explain to people that weren't around, but Celts-76ers was bigger than Celts-LA in the early '80s

 

[the moops]

Someone must have the numbers, but from my watching, Hoford covered Simmons a bunch .

OK - found them.

Looks like Horford guarded Simmons 21.7% of the time that Simmons was on the court. Marcus Morris had him for 27.7% of the time

 

[terrynever]

In my sports life, the only sporting moments that rivaled the intensity and drama of the 1981 ECF were the Sox-MFY ALCS showdowns in 2003-4. It is hard to explain to people that weren't around, but Celts-76ers was bigger than Celts-LA in the early '80s

Don't forget the 1960s rivalry. The league did not have the exposure of even the early 1980s but the star power was amazing. The Sunday national TV game often was Philly vs. Boston. I think they tipped off right after noon. Wilt vs. Russell. As a kid, I wondered how it could get any better than this. I concede that it has but Wilt vs. Russell is still without an equal among big men showdowns.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Don't forget the 1960s rivalry. The league did not have the exposure of even the early 1980s but the star power was amazing. The Sunday national TV game often was Philly vs. Boston. I think they tipped off right after noon. Wilt vs. Russell. As a kid, I wondered how it could get any better than this. I concede that it has but Wilt vs. Russell is still without an equal among big men showdowns.

There were limited options for alternative matchups back then as the NBA was only a 9-team league.

 

[bankshot1]

From my perspective the 60s Celts-76ers rivarly was far more intense and feared than the Lakers (at least until Wilt joined them in '69). Baylor and West were like some mythical figures you knew existed but you rarely saw play (TV coverage was pretty spotty). But the Celts and 76ers seemingly played each other every week during the regular season and for most of the decade faced each other every year in brutally physical series, And fed by over the top rhetoric of Johnny Most they were the first team I really developed an intense dislike for. But the mid-60s 76ers with Wilt, Greer Chet Walker, and Billy C, were star-studded and really good.

 

[Montana Fan]

For my money, the Celts wanted it more and took the game to the Sixers on both ends. That's one win. I recall the Celts beating LA by 30+ and vice versa during different series in the 80's. And in each case, it was one game.

This play speaks to why the Celts won yesterday. They outplayed Philly. Deliver another victory on Thursday and I'll change my opinion of it being just one victory in a 7 game series and not indicative of how the series will play out.

 

[LondonSox]

I was going off of this, which looks a lot less than 20%

Are we really saying Montana that the sixers didn't WANT to hit their shots as much as the Celtics did?

They certainly played badly on defense and missed good shots.

 

[JakeRae]

I was going off of this, which looks a lot less than 20%

Are we really saying Montana that the sixers didn't WANT to hit their shots as much as the Celtics did?

They certainly played badly on defense and missed good shots.

That shows that Simmons didn't cover Horford hardly at all, not that Horford didn't guard Simmons.

 

[Montana Fan]

Are we really saying Montana that the sixers didn't WANT to hit their shots as much as the Celtics did?

They certainly played badly on defense and missed good shots.

No London, I'm saying that the Celts played harder for a game. I said they outplayed the Sixers but meant that the C's outhustled Sixers and Brad outschemed the Sixers. My point was that it was just one game. The Sixers are young and inexperienced and I still think they're favorites to win this series simply based on their talent level. For the Celts to win this series, it's going to have to be due to Brad exploiting matchups and the Celts outhustling the Sixers. Embid's body language was bad in this game and it was likely due to the long layoff. If he was after it and gave a Rodman type effort, there is no way a 6'4" guard would snatch a rebound away from him and then score right in his face.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

37 years ago today was a beautiful sunny Friday in Boston. Celtics were away and down to Philly 3-2 in the ECF after coming back from like 6 down in the last minute in Game 5 and I think only one other NBA team had come back from 3-1 down at that point in history.* Celtics had lost something like 16 road games in a row to the 76'ers and fell behind by 17. But Cedric Maxwell took out an old man in the stands and rookie Kevin McHale blocked rookie Andrew Toney's shot in the last minute and the rest is history. Just a spectacular game.

*Celtics vs 76'ers, 1968

That was an amazing game and it wasn't broadcast until 11:30 pm.

 

[Spelunker]

I was going off of this, which looks a lot less than 20%

Are we really saying Montana that the sixers didn't WANT to hit their shots as much as the Celtics did?

They certainly played badly on defense and missed good shots.

Reverse the relationship there: it's unidirectional, from left to right.

 

[Big John]

The national consensus seems to be that Philly comes back to win this series-- but how? They have no one who can stay with Rozier or Tatum, never mind Brown when he comes back. I suppose the Celtics could generate stops for Philly with dumb plays, turnovers, etc., but Philly isn't going to generate very many on its own. Offense puts fannies in the seats, but it usually takes defense to win in the playoffs.

 

[djbayko]

The national consensus seems to be that Philly comes back to win this series-- but how? They have no one who can stay with Rozier or Tatum, never mind Brown when he comes back. I suppose the Celtics could generate stops for Philly with dumb plays, turnovers, etc., but Philly isn't going to generate very many on its own. Offense puts fannies in the seats, but it usually takes defense to win in the playoffs.

It's funny. Before Game 1, the predominant discussion in this thread was everyone wondering how in the world the Celtics were going to be able to defend the powerhouse 76ers. How quickly things change.

Things have a funny way of turning around in NBA playoff series. We should definitely feel good about what happened last night, and Philly definitely has some match up concerns, but we should be prepared for a dogfight..

 

[bankshot1]

I thougth the concern was more defensing Embiid and the Celts playing with a short bench.

I've still got the same concern.

 

[djbayko]

I thougth the concern was more defensing Embiid and the Celts playing with a short bench.

I've still got the same concern.

Embiid and Simmons, but that's exactly what I'm talking about.

 

[LondonSox]

That shows that Simmons didn't cover Horford hardly at all, not that Horford didn't guard Simmons.

It's shows both ways, but I think it's confusing and I couldn't find the underlying data, I just eyeballed it when I saw it and thought it was lower than we were discussing in here. I went on NBA.com for the data but I couldn't find game specific defensive matchups for long enough I gave up and posted that.

No London, I'm saying that the Celts played harder for a game. I said they outplayed the Sixers but meant that the C's outhustled Sixers and Brad outschemed the Sixers. My point was that it was just one game. The Sixers are young and inexperienced and I still think they're favorites to win this series simply based on their talent level. For the Celts to win this series, it's going to have to be due to Brad exploiting matchups and the Celts outhustling the Sixers. Embid's body language was bad in this game and it was likely due to the long layoff. If he was after it and gave a Rodman type effort, there is no way a 6'4" guard would snatch a rebound away from him and then score right in his face.

Sorry man you deserved better, I read too many "they don't WANT IT ENOUGH" nonsense today my bad. I appologize, it was a bit much snark. I was actually coming to take it back

Reverse the relationship there: it's unidirectional, from left to right.

Yeah my bad, I thought it was both

The national consensus seems to be that Philly comes back to win this series-- but how? They have no one who can stay with Rozier or Tatum, never mind Brown when he comes back. I suppose the Celtics could generate stops for Philly with dumb plays, turnovers, etc., but Philly isn't going to generate very many on its own. Offense puts fannies in the seats, but it usually takes defense to win in the playoffs.

Well I mean play that exact game again and normalize the shooting percentages and the sixers could win it. Esp if it were in Philly.

But I know that's not the point here.
For what it's worth that's the worst defensive performance of the last 3 months. I don't know if it was rust, the moment or what but that is the worst defensive game of the season for Simmons since December at least.
Covington occasionally has a bad defensive game so this is a bit less totally surprising. But he is not that guy.
The Celtics did a great job of abusing the weak spot. I have no idea why Redick was on Tatum like as a plan. I think that will change.

Also bare in mind if the sixers are hitting shots the defense is better set and they can afford less Belinelli more Anderson etc there is really only one true weak link in their top five normally, and he's a minus not an abomination.

If their shooters stay cold it will be a short series. Bottom line. They shoot average they will be favourites unless they have a horrible defensive outing. They shoot lights out they win.

You had both a very bad shooting and a very bad defensive performance. If either improved it's close.

So I don't think it takes a lot of imagination to "how they could win".

You can't look at a game like that and think that's the series

 

[Marceline]

The national consensus seems to be that Philly comes back to win this series-- but how? They have no one who can stay with Rozier or Tatum, never mind Brown when he comes back. I suppose the Celtics could generate stops for Philly with dumb plays, turnovers, etc., but Philly isn't going to generate very many on its own. Offense puts fannies in the seats, but it usually takes defense to win in the playoffs.

First Philly will make adjustments to some of the things that didn't work in game 1, as always happens in a 7 game series.

Second Boston's offense going cold for very long stretches has been and will continue to be their Achilles heel. We are going to see some stretches where they can't score, the question is whether they can stay in the game when that happens.

They can't afford to follow their formula which we have seen all too often of going down by 15 points at the half and storming back against a team like this.

As is usually the case after a blowout win, the team that lost isn't nearly as bad as they looked and the team that won not as good.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

First Philly will make adjustments to some of the things that didn't work in game 1, as always happens in a 7 game series.

Second Boston's offense going cold for very long stretches has been and will continue to be their Achilles heel. We are going to see some stretches where they can't score, the question is whether they can stay in the game when that happens.

They can't afford to follow their formula which we have seen all too often of going down by 15 points at the half and storming back against a team like this.

As is usually the case after a blowout win, the team that lost isn't nearly as bad as they looked and the team that won not as good.

Cs go cold on offense because Kyrie was really the only guy that can consistently beat anyone guarding him. Like we saw in MIL, if Rozier or Tatum aren't winning their matchups, the Cs rely heavily on ball movement and cuts to get guys open, and that can be shut down in the NBA.

However, in game 1, Rozier and Tatum were just breaking down their guy causing PHI's defense to lose shape. It will only get worse with Jaylen Brown coming back.

I suspect they put Reddick on Tatum because they didn't want Smart to take him into the post play after play plus Simmons gets to be a help defender. Assuming Jaylen is back for Game 2, I wonder if they are going try him on Rozier. If Jaylen doesn't come back, I think Reddick goes on Smart.

I also wouldn't be surprised if PHI tries some zone, particularly with the bench unit.

 

[Koufax]

37 years ago today was a beautiful sunny Friday in Boston. Celtics were away and down to Philly 3-2 in the ECF after coming back from like 6 down in the last minute in Game 5 and I think only one other NBA team had come back from 3-1 down at that point in history.* Celtics had lost something like 16 road games in a row to the 76'ers and fell behind by 17. But Cedric Maxwell took out an old man in the stands and rookie Kevin McHale blocked rookie Andrew Toney's shot in the last minute and the rest is history. Just a spectacular game.

*Celtics vs 76'ers, 1968

All the more amazing because Kevin McHale was 11 years old in 1968.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Libertyballers with a good piece with video on how Belinelli's defense (or lack thereof) was one of the keys to the game. https://www.libertyballers.com/2018/5/1/17307508/celtics-well-take-the-belinelli-strip-cooked-until-well-done

One of videos included is here:

 

[BaseballJones]

Does Horford ever set a screen that doesn't make him look like he's a guard pulling on a sweep? I know it's common in the NBA but goodness.

 

[jose melendez]

"Beat LA" chant recalled by Philly scribe. Lot of respect back in those days between Boston and Philly. Definitely a shining moment for Celtics fans:

http://www.philly.com/philly/columnists/mike_sielski/sixers-celtics-nba-playoffs-beat-la-t-shirts-76ers-1982-playoffs-danny-ainge-kevin-mchale-julius-erving-20180501.html

I think that's the Dad of someone I know.

 

[Koufax]

My goodness, Horford's moving screen followed by the NFL-style tackle is crazy. How does he get away with that?

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I remember us bitching about Horford's screens a lot when he played for Atlanta.

 

[Red Averages]

Libertyballers with a good piece with video on how Belinelli's defense (or lack thereof) was one of the keys to the game. https://www.libertyballers.com/2018/5/1/17307508/celtics-well-take-the-belinelli-strip-cooked-until-well-done

This was really well done. Tough to see how he can play.in the series - also reminds us why we hated watching IT play in the playoffs last year.

Why is Belinelli getting made into swiss cheese so important? Here are his +/- numbers from the Miami series:

Game 1: 25 points, 33 minutes, +27 (won by 27)
Game 2: 16 points, 30 minutes, +2 (lose by 10)
Game 3: 21 points, 33 minutes, +20 (win by 20)
Game 4: 10 points, 27 minutes, +3 (won by 4)
Game 5: 11 points, 30 minutes, +2 (won by 13)

Game 1 vs Boston: 11 points, 28 minutes, -23 (lose by 16).

It really changes their allocation of minutes if he can't be out there. This means less rest for the main guys, tapping into a weak rest of the bench, and a significant loss of production from the bench. Again, you'd think the return of Jaylen at some point this series makes this an even larger potential difference.

 

[oumbi]

Here is a visual for what we all already knew - Simmons doesn't shoot from very far away from the basket. In game one, Stevens' defensive scheme on him reflected this and focused on stopping his drives to the basket very well.

 

[Pedro's Jheri Curl]

Interesting article from Alex Kungu on celticsblog.com, a good twitter follow btw, about the "math problem" the Celtics perimeter defense creates for the 76ers.

https://www.celticsblog.com/2018/5/1/17308030/shamrock-notes-boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-and-the-philadelphia-76ers-math-problem-offense-defense

The game plan for the Celtics to go all out on not allowing these guys to get clean looks makes sense. Philadelphia shooters can be good, but they’re all situational shooters that struggle when you take them out of their desired shot profile.

 

[nighthob]

My goodness, Horford's moving screen followed by the NFL-style tackle is crazy. How does he get away with that?

Maybe after the Milwaukee series they've just decided to let everything go?

 

[nighthob]

The other thing about our transition defense is that it is real easy to defend the break when you are knocking down all your shots. It is those perimeter misses that lead to long rebounds and numbers the other way. The Sixers feast on their spot-up shooters knocking down these shots in a delayed break with the ball in Simmons hands......these opportunities are non-existent when we are shooting like we were last night.

In fairness Boston's shooting percentage was partially a function of just how awful so much of Philly's rotation is on the defensive end of the floor. You can carry guys like Redick, Belinelli, Saric, and Ilyasova when they're individually in the lineup, but when 2-3 of them are on the floor, your defense is highly exploitable.

Weirdly Philly, due to management's desire to hoard assets, has the exact same weakness that Boston does, namely the backcourt. But in Boston's case the weakness is due to injury, and not lack of talent. (Granted they tried to address this by making a deal for Fultz, but that failure seems to have made them more gunshy about finding a real two way guard.)

 

[LondonSox]

My goodness, Horford's moving screen followed by the NFL-style tackle is crazy. How does he get away with that?

He was getting away with in early and seemed to be testing how far he could go before a call came, and it never did. There was a stretch here where every screen was like this and I was loosing my mind.
In the second half he seemed to stop being so extreme so maybe the Celtics coaches noticed too.

It was pretty freaking bad, and he has this rep for being a great screener but he never seems to be verticle.

Given the supposed focus on these this season and the number I have seen called for less this year I am a bit surprised.

But honestly if they ain't calling it, he's smart to do it.

 

[JCizzle]

Not optimal

 

[Red Averages]

Not optimal

Not surprising either given it won't be one week from the injury until Saturday. I think the hope at this point would be a game 4/5 return, but we'll see. Certainly would give them the opportunity to be more cautious if they can win on Thursday.

 

[teddykgb]

I remember us bitching about Horford's screens a lot when he played for Atlanta.

They drove me fucking nuts. Now I don’t even notice them lol

 

[Gash Prex]

I fully expect the Sixers to come out and bomb us early, get down big, make a big comeback and then lose a close game at the end - and the national narrative will return to how amazing the sixers are.

 

[InstaFace]

Given the supposed focus on these this season and the number I have seen called for less this year I am a bit surprised.

But honestly if they ain't calling it, he's smart to do it.

Yeah he was called for several in the Bucks series, and dozens during the regular season. One factor seems to be what foul trouble he's in - he'll be less aggressive if it might earn him a PF on offense that he can't afford. But if it's the second half and he's on 0 or 1 fouls, he'll be a Habitual Line Stepper on moving screens until he's made to stop.

 

[nighthob]

Not surprising either given it won't be one week from the injury until Saturday. I think the hope at this point would be a game 4/5 return, but we'll see. Certainly would give them the opportunity to be more cautious if they can win on Thursday.

Yeah, I'll be surprised if he returns before game five. Everything I've read so far is that mild strains are an 8-10 day thing. Getting a win tomorrow night probably buys them the leeway to give him the needed rest. If they lose game two, though, they might try and rush him for game four.

I remember us bitching about Horford's screens a lot when he played for Atlanta.

They drove me fucking nuts. Now I don’t even notice them lol

In fairness while he was setting those screens for the Hawks the refs were whistling Garnett for moving screens a couple of times per game. That being said refs could easily call three dozen moving screens per game if they enforced the rule (for all bigs, not just Horford).

 

[allstonite]

The only person who bothers me with moving screens still is Gortat. Most pros who get away with it at least attempt to make it look like they're rolling or moving to a spot for a pass(though that Horford one is bad). Gortat lumbers around and looks more like a right guard on a running play and he ALWAYS gets away with it. For some reason he's the only one who infuriates me anymore.

 

[the moops]

It's shows both ways, but I think it's confusing and I couldn't find the underlying data, I just eyeballed it when I saw it and thought it was lower than we were discussing in here. I went on NBA.com for the data but I couldn't find game specific defensive matchups for long enough I gave up and posted that.

it is hard to navigate sometimes. Matchup data is here
http://stats.nba.com/game/0041700211/matchups/

 

[lexrageorge]

The national consensus seems to be that Philly comes back to win this series-- but how? They have no one who can stay with Rozier or Tatum, never mind Brown when he comes back. I suppose the Celtics could generate stops for Philly with dumb plays, turnovers, etc., but Philly isn't going to generate very many on its own. Offense puts fannies in the seats, but it usually takes defense to win in the playoffs.

I never jumped on the "Philly in 4 or 5" bandwagon, just because Boston is still a solid and well-coached playoff team even without Hayward and Kyrie, and while Philly is good, I wasn't convinced that they were good enough to win 2 of the first 3 in Boston while also holding serve on their home court. It's really difficult to win on the road in the playoffs; even the 2008 KG-led Celtics went zero for their first 6 road playoff games (and went 3-3 on the road afterwards).

Philly could still win in 5, especially if Brown remains out for the rest of the series (which unfortunately is looking likely). I think the more likely scenario is that Philly adjusts and wins Game 2, while the Celtics either steal a game in Philly, or win the desperation Game 5 in Boston. This had the feel of a 6 or 7 game series, and still does.

 

[Big John]

I'm still waiting for someone to explain what specific defensive adjustments Philly can make going forward. What personnel do the Sixers have to cope with quick players like Rozier, Tatum and Brown? Do they play T.J. McConnell 35 minutes? Do they play zone and hope the Celtics miss their treys?

I would also point out that Tatum (1-5), Smart (2-8) and Morris (1-5) were a combined 4-17 from 3 point range in game one. It was Horford and Rozier who shot lights out. Embid did not come out to guard Horford, and no Sixer was quick enough to bother Rozier's shot, so that success is understandable. What's Philly going to do in game 2? Is Embid going to challenge Horford's shot? What are they going to do about Rozier?

In my view the Sixers simply do not defend well enough to win this series unless the Celtics gift wrap it for them.