Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects

trekfan55

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MLB.com does not have any mention of this deal and still is speculating about Sale to Nationals. Weird.

Edit: It's there now.
 

DaubachmanTurnerOD

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Wow, talking about GFIN mode.

Just like the Pomeranz trade, we're giving up 2020-2024 huge potential for a 2017-2019 sure thing. That's a good deal.
I like this trade particularly given the context of the AL East right now. TOR took a step back, losing EE and Joey Bats. BAL and TBR are not really top flight contenders right now (I expect BAL to take a bit of a step back as well).

And the MFYs appear to be stalling a bit for the 2018 FA class (Harper, Machado, etc). They have stock-piled some impressive prospect depth, and could be really good in a few years, depending on what signings they make from that class. And at that point, would likely be much stronger contenders for the next several years than they appear likely to be in the next 2 (with stop-gap FA signings, etc).
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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who *isn't* a heart attack closer? Britton last year. Wade Davis the year before. Its the nature of the beast. Kimbrel walks guys, but doesn't give up hits. Despite Tim McCarver warbling at me from the Springfield Retirement Castle, a walk is pretty much the same as a hit. Even when the leadoff guy gets one. It just takes longer.
Fast forward to the playoffs, is Kimbrel a guy you can bring in in the 8th and tell him the game is yours? I don't think he is.
 

joe dokes

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No, but I would like to see the team to stop trading prospects now and start to focus a bit on restocking the system. We don't want to become the Tigers.
I get the bigger picture. But I think the Sox might be in a unique position in that several of their core players will still be in their primes when this "window" narrows. No one knows what tomorrow brings, but I think the cliff is two cycles away, not just one, like it often is for teams that make GFIN-ish moves.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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This bullpen should be more than mediocre once Smith gets back.

Not to mention they could easily move Buch to a team looking for pitching to get another RP.
Bullpen arms are fickle, Pomeranz could emerge as a relief ace, Kelly could emerge as a relief ace, Smith could emerge as a relief ace. Any of these things are possible. In fact, that's typically what Dombrowski does. He's willing to pay and occasionally overpay for everything, except middle relievers. He likes to acquire them via trade and typically those trades don't go that smoothly. Part of it is the nature of how volatile relief pitching is, in other situations the team that's trading the reliever typically knows something that we don't.

Look, the team got significantly better today. The season doesn't start tomorrow. I want a better bullpen and that's still a priority for me over Encarnacion, Alvarez, Napoli or whoever else is joining the offense.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Fast forward to the playoffs, is Kimbrel a guy you can bring in in the 8th and tell him the game is yours? I don't think he is.
Kimbrel up until last year had some of the best relief numbers...you know, ever, so, yeah, I'm willing to throw him in your arbitrary and mostly meaningless scenario. Not every closer is going to be Koji 2013, but Kimbrel over the course of his overall career is as good as they come.

Joel Pinero was a "heart attack" closer. Craig Kimbrel isn't that.
 

rembrat

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Hopefully blue shirt, green shirt and Louisville Slugger shirt put Sale on a bit of a bulking program. His frame plus his delivery are my only reservations about this trade.
Chill out, meathead. Nothing throws off mechanics like gaining weight.
 

Marciano490

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Chill out, meathead. Nothing throws off mechanics like gaining weight.
In the legs and ass? Gradually? Seems like most pitchers/athletes fill out naturally in their late 20s and early 30s anyways and manage to work with it.
 

trekfan55

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Fast forward to the playoffs, is Kimbrel a guy you can bring in in the 8th and tell him the game is yours? I don't think he is.
I don't see why not. This year's playoffs showed us many instances of this, and yes I know some did not work (some others were dumb but that's for another thread).

Kimbrel is not the shut down infallible closer but he is an excellent closer.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Bullpen arms are fickle, Pomeranz could emerge as a relief ace, Kelly could emerge as a relief ace, Smith could emerge as a relief ace. Any of these things are possible. In fact, that's typically what Dombrowski does. He's willing to pay and occasionally overpay for everything, except middle relievers. He likes to acquire them via trade and typically those trades don't go that smoothly. Part of it is the nature of how volatile relief pitching is, in other situations the team that's trading the reliever typically knows something that we don't.

Look, the team got significantly better today. The season doesn't start tomorrow. I want a better bullpen and that's still a priority for me over Encarnacion, Alvarez, Napoli or whoever else is joining the offense.
Pomeranz will be in the rotation and Kelly is going to be a 5th-6th inning guy with high K potential. Smith is a question mark, but a very high upside question mark, and Thornburg/Kimbrel is a very good back end. Honestly, all they have to do is add one more arm, hopefully it's Ziegler, but I'd be okay with Koji as a very limited-use weapon. The bullpen isn't nearly the worry you're making it out to be.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Kimbrel up until last year had some of the best relief numbers...you know, ever, so, yeah, I'm willing to throw him in your arbitrary and mostly meaningless scenario. Not every closer is going to be Koji 2013, but Kimbrel over the course of his overall career is as good as they come.

Joel Pinero was a "heart attack" closer. Craig Kimbrel isn't that.
I swear some of the people on this board don't watch the games. I'm seemingly in the minority on my opinions in this thread (and others), but I don't have the confidence in Kimbrel that many on here apparently do.
 

opes

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Kimbrel is a heart attack closer. He's good, but not great. Thornburg is another good addition, but is there anyone in the bullpen right now that you have 100% confidence they're going to shut it down? It can be a good bullpen to be paired with what looks like a great rotation, but I think even if they go get Holland it might not be good enough.
Contreras almost lost a world series, so no one is 100%.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Pomeranz will be in the rotation and Kelly is going to be a 5th-6th inning guy with high K potential. Smith is a question mark, but a very high upside question mark, and Thornburg/Kimbrel is a very good back end. Honestly, all they have to do is add one more arm, hopefully it's Ziegler, but I'd be okay with Koji as a very limited-use weapon. The bullpen isn't nearly the worry you're making it out to be.
Pomeranz and Wright will likely compete for the #5 spot assuming everyone is healthy.
 

joe dokes

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Kimbrel up until last year had some of the best relief numbers...you know, ever, so, yeah, I'm willing to throw him in your arbitrary and mostly meaningless scenario. Not every closer is going to be Koji 2013, but Kimbrel over the course of his overall career is as good as they come.

Joel Pinero was a "heart attack" closer. Craig Kimbrel isn't that.
Even Koji only pitched the 8th 1 or two times in 2013 after becoming the "closer."....and then 7 times in the post season.
 

In my lifetime

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The next shoe to drop?

Excess starting pitching (I know you can never have too much, but still)
Clay or Pomeranz or Wright - maybe 2 of 3 are dealt
1 of the 3 catchers

Needs
Large upgrade at third base
Lights out closer?


Then just rotate at DH
 

johnnywayback

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Even as a member in good standing of the Prospect Industrial Complex, I'm not crushed to lose Moncada. I think Devers is a better defensive 3B anyway, which means Moncada's best position was always going to be Someone Else's 2B. And if you believe Kopech is destined to be a reliever, this is decent value for an elite player.

That said, our farm system is now legitimately thin: it's Devers, Groome, and a bunch of middle relievers. So we are no longer in a position to compete for franchise players at positions of actual need if they come on the trade market. And while this certainly takes us from contender to favorite in the short term, stripping the farm like that could take us from contender to moribund Detroit clone pretty quickly.

It'll be interesting to see what we can get for Buchholz or Pomeranz.
 

foulkehampshire

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I think the bullpen should be decent.

Kimbel, Thornberg, Smith, Kelly, Hembree, Barnes, Robbie Ross, Workman...plenty to work with there and there's more shoes to drop.
They'll convert a backend guy like Wright, Buchholz, Johnson, Owens, Elias, Pom(?) to a reliever, presumably.

Also, you have some guys in the high minors like Kyle Martin, Williams Jerez who have plus stuff out of the BP.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I assume you meant Chapman, and if your take away from that was that it was Chapman's fault, you didn't watch the game. Maddon abused the hell out of him in that series because he didn't trust all of his "good" relievers.
And you're saying some of us don't pay attention? The best relievers get abused in the playoffs every year. Have you forgotten about Keith Foulke?
 

Tyrone Biggums

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And you're saying some of us don't pay attention? The best relievers get abused in the playoffs every year. Have you forgotten about Keith Foulke?
Keith Foulkes career died with the curse. That dude gave his all that year.
 

nothumb

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I swear some of the people on this board don't watch the games. I'm seemingly in the minority on my opinions in this thread (and others), but I don't have the confidence in Kimbrel that many on here apparently do.
I watched probably 75% of games last year and I think Kimbrel is who the numbers say he is - a very good closer who is regularly hard to watch but almost always hard to hit. I'll never love him the way I love a guy like Koji, but he's low on the list of things I worry about.

I'm already worrying about Sale having a Porcello type adjustment year and / or blowing his elbow. But if we get another ring before he walks I can live with either of those.

So long as we don't end up with Drake Laroche as a bat boy, that is.
 

trekfan55

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I assume you meant Chapman, and if your take away from that was that it was Chapman's fault, you didn't watch the game. Maddon abused the hell out of him in that series because he didn't trust all of his "good" relievers.
On that we can agree.

But Mariano Rivera lost one WS and blew two saves (one of them really wasn't his fault) in 2004. And he blew the 1997 ALCS when he first started closing. It happens to the best closers, and manager misuse is definitely a factor.

Given what has been done, I don't see the Sosx signing Jensen or Chapman.
 

AB in DC

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True. But there's a bit more to it. It's not like all the guys on the team from 2017-19 are going to die on 1/1/20.
A lot of them will be FAs by then, though, or at least paid like FAs. The window is now when so much talent is pre-arb or early arbitration and still very affordable.
 

joe dokes

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I assume you meant Chapman, and if your take away from that was that it was Chapman's fault, you didn't watch the game. Maddon abused the hell out of him in that series because he didn't trust all of his "good" relievers.
Chapman also had one pretty poor game in each of the other two series. None of this means anything other than the idea of a "lights-out" closer usually transcends reality except for one guy every year (koji '13, Britton '16).
 

Ed Hillel

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I am stunned this is a real thing. I like Moncada, but the fact that his floor is so low is pretty scary for a top prospect. The k rate is abysmal and while some young players adjust to off-speed pitching over time, many do not. Kopech I really like as a potential closer, but man, getting a top 5ish pitcher in baseball with an insanely good contract seems like a coup. I would have this shit faxed to the commissioner ASAP before the White Sox can change their minds.
 

edoug

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Red Sox paying all the remaining 31.2 million owed to Moncada.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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And you're saying some of us don't pay attention? The best relievers get abused in the playoffs every year. Have you forgotten about Keith Foulke?
Absolutely not. Keith Foulke gave up his career for the 2004 Sox. My point was that Chapman was abused unnecessarily and it nearly cost the Cubs the World Series. Miller was overused as well, but I don't think he ever got to the point of fatigue that Chapman was at. With all that said, I don't see the present construction of the Sox bullpen capable of having guys do that. Admittedly I haven't seen Thornburg much at all, and I think there's a chance that Kelly could become that reliable. However, I still think they need an additional substantial arm in the pen.
 

Detts

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The prospect system has been stripped because of all the promotions. DD just traded away the pieces that were far away and/or excess so as not to waste the current talent on the ML roster. GFIN mode indeed.
 

DanoooME

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That said, our farm system is now legitimately thin: it's Devers, Groome, and a bunch of middle relievers. So we are no longer in a position to compete for franchise players at positions of actual need if they come on the trade market. And while this certainly takes us from contender to favorite in the short term, stripping the farm like that could take us from contender to moribund Detroit clone pretty quickly.
Where are those positions of need? The OF is set for years, 2B is capably filled, have a young gun at SS, C has multiple options, 1B has Hanley for 2 more years and we're stuck with Pablo at 3B. So there's only one position that might need filling and that's the position that our now-top-prospect happens to play.

The farm can be rebuilt. The key is the trades they are making are for younger, cost-controlled elite (Sale) or very good (Thornburg) players. It's not like they are giving these guys away for Pablo.
 

Adrian's Dome

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This'll be my last post about Kimbrel in the Sale thread, but here's two career lines:

2.76 ERA, 205 ERA+, 1.0 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
1.86 ERA, 210 ERA+, .949 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 14.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9

One of those guys is Mariano Rivera. The other is our "heart attack" closer.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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On that we can agree.

But Mariano Rivera lost one WS and blew two saves (one of them really wasn't his fault) in 2004. And he blew the 1997 ALCS when he first started closing. It happens to the best closers, and manager misuse is definitely a factor.

Given what has been done, I don't see the Sosx signing Jensen or Chapman.
There's a difference between giving up bloop singles that fall in vs. walking the world (as it felt like Allen may do a few times this post season). I'm ok with Kimbrel being the closer, but I'd love it if he wasn't the best reliever on the team.
 

Pudge Gumley

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Bruce Levine reported on Chicago radio (670 The Score) that the Red Sox will pay the full freight of Moncada's remaining bonus $, in the neighborhood of $31M. This probably was the reason the White Sox stopped asking for Betts, 10D, et al.
 

czar

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Wow.

The kneejerk reaction is to deal Buchholz, but how much of the Sale cost could be offset (i.e., minor league reload) by moving ERod or Pomeranz for prospects in this market?
 

Detts

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Alex Basabe isn't a pitcher but he's definitely a lottery ticket. He's been my favorite Redsox prospect for the last 2 years. If you go only on upside, he was probably only behind Moncada (and Ben10 if you include him) as far positional players are concerned. Alex could easily be a top 50 prospect next year or never make it out of A ball. He struggled in the first half but put it all together in the 2nd half earning himself a promotion to Salem. His first half splits were .222/.293/.397. His 2nd half splits were .299/.359/.498. All this while cutting his k% from 29.8% to 20.7%. His bb rate did fall though, from 9.3% to 8.0%. Sample sizes of 215 PA in 1st half, 251 in second.
I was talking Diaz who pitched in Greenville last year. Fastball only with no command.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Does that money count against the luxury tax limit? If so, is it just added to this year's total, or each year?
I'm pretty sure it was money already spent and no it doesn't count against the luxury tax limit. This was one of the last few cash only exploit signings to happen. He's on a normal minor league contract.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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This'll be my last post about Kimbrel in the Sale thread, but here's two career lines:

2.76 ERA, 205 ERA+, 1.0 WHIP, 7.0 H/9, 8.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9
1.86 ERA, 210 ERA+, .949 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 14.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9

One of those guys is Mariano Rivera. The other is one our "heart attack" closer.
Again, I ask, do you watch the games? If you're trying to sell me or any sane person that Kimbrel is less anxiety inducing for a manager than Rivera, you're nuts. Otherwise, why post this argument?
 

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Bruce Levine reported on Chicago radio (670 The Score) that the Red Sox will pay the full freight of Moncada's remaining bonus $, in the neighborhood of $31M. This probably was the reason the White Sox stopped asking for Betts, 10D, et al.
The reason they stopped asking for Betts, Benintendi, et al is probably because they Red Sox kept saying no.