Coaches: Who do you like

Vinho Tinto · Jan 5, 2014

Is Tomlin not very good or overrated?

Dan to Theo to Ben · Jan 5, 2014

I think Death is better than half of those.

But seriously, I would put BB and Payton in the first tier. Carroll, Arians, Pagano, Tomlin, and Jim Harbaugh in the 2nd tier. McCoy and Kelly I'm pretty positive on.

Rest are fungible or overrated or bad.

SoxFan58 · Jan 5, 2014

Mike McCarthy is terrible. Andy Reid's clock management with a ring.

Super Nomario · Jan 5, 2014

There's so much that goes into the job that I think it's hard to rank guys along a one-dimensional axis. I'd look at things like:

- Innovative vs Conservative
- Offensive vs Defensive
- Good in-game management vs struggles with clock / 4th downs
- Uses rookies well vs over-reliant on veterans
- Culture-changer vs laid-back
- Prepared each week vs inconsistent
- Liked / respected by players vs hated / disrespected
- Disciplined vs undisciplined
- System-based vs game-plan-based

Like, I think Rex Ryan is innovative, great defensively, poor offensively, OK in-game, OK with rookies, pretty good with culture, inconsistent, well-liked, undisciplined, and mostly system-based. Jim Harbaugh I'd say is somewhat innovative (here we see limitations of the categories; he's very progressive with different formations but his playcalling is pretty vanilla IMO), pretty good on both sides of the ball, decent in-game, OK with rookies, definite culture-changer, generally prepared, generally liked, fairly disciplined, generally system-based.

Stitch01 · Jan 5, 2014

SoxFan58 said:
Mike McCarthy is terrible. Andy Reid's clock management with a ring.

McCarthy is dead last at in game management.

Not totally sold on Pagano either although some of my problems with him ( too conservative in game, dying to be a power running team with no RBs and an very good QB) might be better attributed to his OC or half wit owner.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jan 5, 2014

Mike Smith is worse than McCarthy. The guy is completely clueless and constantly shits himself at the end of games. The Falcons desperately need a new regime there.

Riverboat Ron lucked into Cam and a great defense.

Tomlin is overrated, he inherited a pretty talented team and took it to the Super Bowl. That's pretty much it.

I like Marvin Lewis but his time is up. He's a better coordinator. Same with Rex, Reid, and Garrett.

I like Kelly, Trestman, Philbin, Arians, Pagano and BoB to wind up as the next wave or possible upcoming top tier guys.

The top tier would be BB, both Harbaughs, Payton and Carroll.

Coughlin probably deserves to be there cause of the rings, but I can't put him there. I'd group him with Fox, Fisher, and Lovie.

The rest are the rest. Who knows for most of them.

Edit: spelling

luckiestman · Jan 5, 2014

Tomlin is 71-42 with a SB win and a SB loss.

Sean Payton is 73-39 with a SB that he was (a) gifted into even being there with the crazy officiating against the vikings and (b) the recipient of a manning choke job.

I don't see how Tomlin isn't good.

I like both guys. Personally, I would prefer BB or Jim Harbaugh to coach the team I follow, but if I found out Tomlin was replacing Rex tomorrow I'd probably hurt myself attempting back flips.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 5, 2014

He's may be on the downslope now but in terms of career assessment Tom Coughlin belongs in the top tier,

I think judging coaches who have only worked with top tier front offices is one of the trickiest issues - the Harbaughs and Tomlin are cases in point. I'm not a huge Tomlin fan but it's curious to me that everybody thinks he's overrated but few seem to question putting the Harbaughs near the top. What makes them great coaches?

Phragle · Jan 5, 2014

Kelly took Reid's sloppy seconds roster full of divas, shit QBs, and a weak defense to the playoffs in only one year. His Eagles scored 162 more points than the '12 Eagles. IMO he's absolutely a top tier coach.

Stitch01 · Jan 5, 2014

luckiestman said:
Tomlin is 71-42 with a SB win and a SB loss.

Sean Payton is 73-39 with a SB that he was (a) gifted into even being there with the crazy officiating against the vikings and (b) the recipient of a manning choke job.

I don't see how Tomlin isn't good.

I like both guys. Personally, I would prefer BB or Jim Harbaugh to coach the team I follow, but if I found out Tomlin was replacing Rex tomorrow I'd probably hurt myself attempting back flips.

I used to think Tomlin was good, but I've seen too many godawful in game decisions culminating with the ridiculous decision not to kneel and kick a field goal against GB because "he's not into that". Flip a coin between him and Rex.

Stitch01 · Jan 5, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Mike Smith is worse than McCarthy. The guy is completely clueless and constantly shits himself at the end of games. The Falcons desperately need a new regime there.
Riverboat Ron lucked into Cam and a great defense.
Tomlin is overrated, he inherited a pretty talented team and took it to the Super Bowl. That's pretty much it.
I like Marvin Lewis but his time is up. He's a better coordinator. Same with Rex, Reid, and Garrett.
I like Kelly, Tressman, Philbin, Arians, Pagano and BoB to wind up as the next wave or possible upcoming top tier guys.
The top tier would be BB, both Harbaughs, Payton and Carroll.
Coughlin probably deserves to be there cause of the rings, but I can't put him there. I'd group him with Fox, Fisher, and Lovie.
The rest are the rest. Who knows for most of them.

I actually think Mike Smith has been decent, but this year is not a credit to him. I like Lewis too, although there's an argument that, like Reid, he needs a change of scenery. I think if lewis and Reid should both be coordinators we'd have a hard time finding 32 head coaches.

Kelly, Arians, and Trestman intrigue me and I kind of liked Chud and was surprised he was fired but not a huge body of work there.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 6, 2014

phragle said:
Kelly took Reid's sloppy seconds roster full of divas, shit QBs, and a weak defense to the playoffs in only one year. His Eagles scored 162 more points than the '12 Eagles. IMO he's absolutely a top tier coach.

Agreed. And Nick Fucking Foles had one of the statistically best QB seasons in the history of the NFL in the Kelly offense. The track record is very short but I think there is a ton of evidence that Chip Kelly has had a positive impact on the likelihood of his team winning football games.

Cellar-Door · Jan 6, 2014

phragle said:
Kelly took Reid's sloppy seconds roster full of divas, shit QBs, and a weak defense to the playoffs in only one year. His Eagles scored 162 more points than the '12 Eagles. IMO he's absolutely a top tier coach.

This is dumb.
The teams weren't remotely similar.
They added a new starter at: FS, Both CBs, two new starters on the D-Line, Barwin at OLB,
Lesean McCoy was healthy all year, JAckson was healthy all year, Racist Riley Cooper was healthy all year, Jason Peters was back after missing an entire year, Kelce is back after missing almost all of last year, Herremans is back after missing half the year, and they drafted Johnson for RT.

So yes it is the same team except for 4 of the 5 O-lineman, half the WRs, and half the defense including 75% of the secondary.

This argument drives me nuts, is Reid the best coach in the league now because he took the Chiefs from 2-14 to 11-5?

Edit- Kelly may well end up being a really good coach, his offensive play calling is impressive (though he needs to work on making the team more consistent.) However comparing 2013 to 2012 is not a good way of proving his talent. The 2012 Eagles had horrific injury luck, 2013 they were very lucky losing no O-lineman and no impact starters for any length of time. Additionally last year's team had terrible luck on fumble recoveries while this years had better luck on them.

Phragle · Jan 6, 2014

Cellar-Door said:
This is dumb.
The teams weren't remotely similar.
They added a new starter at: FS, Both CBs, two new starters on the D-Line, Barwin at OLB,
Lesean McCoy was healthy all year, JAckson was healthy all year, Racist Riley Cooper was healthy all year, Jason Peters was back after missing an entire year, Kelce is back after missing almost all of last year, Herremans is back after missing half the year, and they drafted Johnson for RT.

So yes it is the same team except for 4 of the 5 O-lineman, half the WRs, and half the defense including 75% of the secondary.

This argument drives me nuts, is Reid the best coach in the league now because he took the Chiefs from 2-14 to 11-5?

Edit- Kelly may well end up being a really good coach, his offensive play calling is impressive (though he needs to work on making the team more consistent.) However comparing 2013 to 2012 is not a good way of proving his talent. The 2012 Eagles had horrific injury luck, 2013 they were very lucky losing no O-lineman and no impact starters for any length of time. Additionally last year's team had terrible luck on fumble recoveries while this years had better luck on them.

I know all of this, but he inherited Reid's roster and was involved in all of the roster building process. And it's not like they went out and signed a bunch of studs either. I mean one of your points is that Pat Chung is on the roster. Yeah how'd did they survive without franchise savior Pat Chung on the roster? The inmates were running the asylum last year. It was a team full of entitled divas, now it's a humble, disciplined, and hard-working team. Whether or not there was any luck involved, Kelly turned the team around about as much as possible, and he did it with Nick Foles who is significantly less talented than Vick. Kelly is not just a coach, he is involved in everything, and he fixed everything - the whole organization. Maybe this offseason he can start working on the fan base.

To address your points:
Chung is crap.
Cooper wasn't even good before Kelly.
Who are the new D-line starters?
3-sack Barwin had a big impact this year? No, he didn't. He was pretty bad.
They had Maclin in 2012 who is much better than Cooper was, and is now.
They had DRC in 2012 who is much better than either Williams or Fletcher.
McCoy only missed 4 games in 2012 and Jackson only 5.

The only significant difference between the rosters is the Peters injury, and the QB, and for injuries being nothing but luck, that's debatable.

Cellar-Door · Jan 6, 2014

phragle said:
I know all of this, but he inherited Reid's roster and was involved in all of the roster building process. And it's not like they went out and signed a bunch of studs either. I mean one of your points is that Pat Chung is on the roster. Yeah how'd did they survive without franchise savior Pat Chung on the roster? The inmates were running the asylum last year. It was a team full of entitled divas, now it's a humble, disciplined, and hard-working team. Whether or not there was any luck involved, Kelly turned the team around about as much as possible, and he did it with Nick Foles who is significantly less talented than Vick. Kelly is not just a coach, he is involved in everything, and he fixed everything - the whole organization. Maybe this offseason he can start working on the fan base.

To address your points:
Chung is crap.
Cooper wasn't even good before Kelly.
Who are the new D-line starters?
3-sack Barwin had a big impact this year? No, he didn't. He was pretty bad.
They had Maclin in 2012 who is much better than Cooper was, and is now.
They had DRC in 2012 who is much better than either Williams or Fletcher.
McCoy only missed 4 games in 2012 and Jackson only 5.

The only significant difference between the rosters is the Peters injury, and the QB, and for injuries being nothing but luck, that's debatable.

you just swept over the entire O-line being injured. And somehow decided the two best players on the team missing 9 combined games as opposed to 0 isn't important.
Chung while bad is still better than Kurt Coleman
I disagree about DRC who was terrible in 2012 and 2011, both Fletcher and Williams were better and significantly so based of PFF numbers.
Barwin had a good year, playing more of a coverage than a rush role.(their D-coordinator has talked up how he is maybe the most important player on the defense).

Al Zarilla · Jan 6, 2014

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
He's may be on the downslope now but in terms of career assessment Tom Coughlin belongs in the top tier,

I think judging coaches who have only worked with top tier front offices is one of the trickiest issues - the Harbaughs and Tomlin are cases in point. I'm not a huge Tomlin fan but it's curious to me that everybody thinks he's overrated but few seem to question putting the Harbaughs near the top. What makes them great coaches?

Mike Singletary stunk with the same front office that Jim Harbaugh works with. OK, Trent Baalke started as GM the same year that Harbaugh did as coach, but which one of them had the most to do with the immediate turnaround? The coach, of course. He immediately threw all confidence in Alex Smith, who responded very well, and the rest of the team in general all seemed to wake up and play to their potential under Harbaugh. If and when BB decides to go coach Navy, Jim H. would be the guy I'd most want to see replace him but I don't know how he would be pried out of SF.

DanoooME · Jan 6, 2014

Cellar-Door said:
This is dumb.
The teams weren't remotely similar.
They added a new starter at: FS, Both CBs, two new starters on the D-Line, Barwin at OLB,
Lesean McCoy was healthy all year, JAckson was healthy all year, Racist Riley Cooper was healthy all year, Jason Peters was back after missing an entire year, Kelce is back after missing almost all of last year, Herremans is back after missing half the year, and they drafted Johnson for RT.

So yes it is the same team except for 4 of the 5 O-lineman, half the WRs, and half the defense including 75% of the secondary.

This argument drives me nuts, is Reid the best coach in the league now because he took the Chiefs from 2-14 to 11-5?

Edit- Kelly may well end up being a really good coach, his offensive play calling is impressive (though he needs to work on making the team more consistent.) However comparing 2013 to 2012 is not a good way of proving his talent. The 2012 Eagles had horrific injury luck, 2013 they were very lucky losing no O-lineman and no impact starters for any length of time. Additionally last year's team had terrible luck on fumble recoveries while this years had better luck on them.

Absolutely not. And we'll get to see this phenomenon happen again next year when Bill O'Brien takes the Texans from 2-14 to a division title again because they didn't get shit luck, got the #1 pick, got their team healthy again, and isn't run by an incompetent tool.

MarcSullivaFan · Jan 6, 2014

[I would put] John Harbaugh in tier one. I think he'd be my first choice to replace BB (in a hypothetical world in which all these guys were available). His success is pretty hard to argue with: SB title, playoffs in 5/6 years, 9-4 record in the playoffs.

Edited to correct for my stupid.

dcmissle · Jan 6, 2014

Because he is a pretty low key guy compared to his brother, and perhaps because there is among some a reflexive hatred of all things Raven.

I like him. Unlike a lot of the coaches we complain about, John does not go gently into the good night.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Jan 6, 2014

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Agreed. And Nick Fucking Foles had one of the statistically best QB seasons in the history of the NFL in the Kelly offense.

phragle said:
Whether or not there was any luck involved, Kelly turned the team around about as much as possible, and he did it with Nick Foles who is significantly less talented than Vick.

Don't hate on Foles. He may hold onto the ball too long, but he doesn't turn it over. Calling him a product of Kellys offense is nonsense.

Stitch01 · Jan 6, 2014

MarcSullivaFan said:
Why isn't John Harbaugh tier one or two? I think he'd be my first choice to replace BB (in a hypothetical world in which all these guys were available). His success is pretty hard to argue with: SB title, playoffs in 5/6 years, 9-4 record in the playoffs.

dcmissle said:
Because he is a pretty low key guy compared to his brother, and perhaps because there is among some a reflexive hatred of all things Raven.

I like him. Unlike a lot of the coaches we complain about, John does not go gently into the good night.

I think pretty much everyone had John Harbaugh there in the top two tiers except one poster asking how to divide credit between a coach and a good front office.

He seems good although, like most coaches, overly conservative at times (playing for the 60 yard FG in Detroit was horrible)

I say that as someone who proudly hates all things of the mediocre Ravens.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Jan 6, 2014

One thing about the Reid/Kelly debate - the NFL scheduling procedure makes it difficult to compare season to season. As best as I can tell after looking quickly, the 2012 Eagles had an opponents strength of schedule of over.500 while the 2013 Eagles had an opponents strength of schedule at something like .460.

I don't get a chance to watch a lot of NFL games, but it was always my impression (up until this season at least) that John Harbaugh was a better coach than Jim Harbaugh. More measured, greater ability to be self-critical and adjust, and better able to rely on assistants.

Ralphwiggum · Jan 6, 2014

With the caveat that I like Kelly and think he will probably end up being a top tier coach, one-year turnarounds to me are not indicative of much of anything in the NFL. Once upon a time not that long ago Tony Sparano ran the wildcat and the Dolphins won the division (albeit in a year in which Tom Brady only played a handful of downs) a year after they went 1-15. Note, I am not saying Kelly's offense is a wildcat like gimmick, but doing it for one year when there is a relatively scarcity of film and coaches haven't had a lot of time to figure out what you are trying to do is a lot easier than sustaining that over a period of years.

coremiller · Jan 6, 2014

Most fans wildly overrate the importance of in-game tactical decision-making and clock management. It's highly visible but it's a really small percentage of what a coach actually does, as Super Nomario points out. Saying that a guy like Tomlin is not a good coach because he's made some questionable tactical decisions is absurd. Much more important is whether a) the team is properly prepared week-in week-out, and b) he can consistently get the players to buy into what he's doing.

tims4wins · Jan 6, 2014

coremiller said:
Most fans wildly overrate the importance of in-game tactical decision-making and clock management. It's highly visible but it's a really small percentage of what a coach actually does, as Super Nomario points out. Saying that a guy like Tomlin is not a good coach because he's made some questionable tactical decisions is absurd. Much more important is whether a) the team is properly prepared week-in week-out, and b) he can consistently get the players to buy into what he's doing.

I agree with this 100%. It is similar to a baseball manager - we only see pitching changes, hit and run, bunt, steal, and pinch hit. But that is such a small portion of the actual job.

On a related note, I think Patriots offensive coordinators have received way too much flak going all the way back to the Charlie Weis years; playcalling is certainly a big aspect of the job, but the strategy, formations, personnel, gameplan, etc. that goes into each week is a huge huge piece of it, and generally speaking the Pats OC has put their offense in an excellent position to succeed.

Back on topic, current NFL head coaches I'd be "ok" with replacing BB:
Harbaugh East (steady presence)
Harbaugh West (even though he is a whiner)
Pagano (I think)
Payton
Petey Boy (even though this would never be realistic)

It is a really short list.

Stitch01 · Jan 6, 2014

Steelers lost to a team QBd by Tim Tebow in a playoff game then missed the playoffs two straight seasons. They were really unprepared and played sloppy the first month this season. There have been rumblings that the franchise quarterback is unhappy and frustrated with the team. In game decisions arent everything, but he was bad at them this year. Why exactly should we think Tomlin did a good job this year?

EDIT: I also vehemently disagree with anyone arguing that in game decisions are unimportant. Yes, obviously there are 100 other things a coach does and if he sucks at those being an expert tactician wont matter, but routinely lighting win equity on fire weekly with in game stupidity matters. Not kneeling and kicking the FG cost the Steelers somewhere between 5 and 10 % of an expected win for literally zero reason.

bowiac · Jan 6, 2014

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
One thing about the Reid/Kelly debate - the NFL scheduling procedure makes it difficult to compare season to season. As best as I can tell after looking quickly, the 2012 Eagles had an opponents strength of schedule of over.500 while the 2013 Eagles had an opponents strength of schedule at something like .460.

Football Reference's SRS metric makes eyeballing this pretty easy. It's just margin of victory adjusted for your opponents average margin of victory. Very simple and does a pretty strong job eyeballing how strong teams are (it has an 80% correlation with Vegas spreads for instance). The Eagles had a 1.9 SRS this year, meaning they outscored a league average team by 1.9 points per game (as compared to their actual margin of victory of 3.8). They were at -8.9 last year (as compared to an actual margin of victory of -10.3).

So yes, they did face a significantly harder schedule this year. On the other hand, they were so awful last year anyways that even schedule adjustments mean this was a huge improvement.

RoyHobbs · Jan 6, 2014

For definitions of great coaches, Halberstam's Education of a Coach is worth looking at. I know a bunch of you have read it, so you know it is essentially about being in that "top tier" and what it entails. Remember therein, for example, Steve Belichick is discussed as being "considered an exceptional coach - tough and smart, original and demanding, way ahead of the curve in the drills he demanded, and, in addition to everything else, an absolutely brilliant scout" (7).

Indeed, and many posters are touching on this, it seems the thing that sets BB (and other "top tier" guys, probably) apart is preparation. We know, from listening to press conferences and interviews, that's one of his buzzwords; we know, via countless anecdotes, that's what he does 20 hours a day, seven days a week; we've seen him in documentaries going over film, e.g. those famed scenes with TB in his office; we know he is a student of the game and an historian, constantly applying knowledge in order to teach and mold his players.

I'd think, then, given BB is far and away the "top tier" guy of the past decade+, preparation and teaching ability have to rank high on the list of desirable top tier traits. How one measures those beyond anecdote and observation is, however, more difficult and that is what makes threads like this one so fun.

bowiac · Jan 6, 2014

Worth noting - the Eagles improvement in SRS was the 2nd biggest in the NFL (at +10.8), which was only half that of Reid's Chiefs (+20.1).

coremiller · Jan 6, 2014

Stitch01 said:
Steelers lost to a team QBd by Tim Tebow in a playoff game then missed the playoffs two straight seasons. They were really unprepared and played sloppy the first month this season. There have been rumblings that the franchise quarterback is unhappy and frustrated with the team. In game decisions arent everything, but he was bad at them this year. Why exactly should we think Tomlin did a good job this year?

EDIT: I also vehemently disagree with anyone arguing that in game decisions are unimportant. Yes, obviously there are 100 other things a coach does and if he sucks at those being an expert tactician wont matter, but routinely lighting win equity on fire weekly with in game stupidity matters. Not kneeling and kicking the FG cost the Steelers somewhere between 5 and 10 % of an expected win for literally zero reason.

I wasn't talking about this year, but about Tomlin's career as a whole. I haven't watched them play enough this year to know if things have deteriorated, but any coach whose record is that good (1 SB win, 1 SB loss, 3 division titles, 3 12 win seasons, no losing seasons in until this year what has been a very tough division) over a 7-year sample is almost certainly a very good coach. It's almost impossible to win 10+ games every year for a decade unless you have a Manning/Brady/Rodgers/Brees type QB, and Roethlisberger has never quite been on that level and has had trouble staying healthy.

Super Nomario · Jan 6, 2014

RoyHobbs said:
For definitions of great coaches, Halberstam's Education of a Coach is worth looking at. I know a bunch of you have read it, so you know it is essentially about being in that "top tier" and what it entails. Remember therein, for example, Steve Belichick is discussed as being "considered an exceptional coach - tough and smart, original and demanding, way ahead of the curve in the drills he demanded, and, in addition to everything else, an absolutely brilliant scout" (7).

Indeed, and many posters are touching on this, it seems the thing that sets BB (and other "top tier" guys, probably) apart is preparation. We know, from listening to press conferences and interviews, that's one of his buzzwords; we know, via countless anecdotes, that's what he does 20 hours a day, seven days a week; we've seen him in documentaries going over film, e.g. those famed scenes with TB in his office; we know he is a student of the game and an historian, constantly applying knowledge in order to teach and mold his players.

I'd think, then, given BB is far and away the "top tier" guy of the past decade+, preparation and teaching ability have to rank high on the list of desirable top tier traits. How one measures those beyond anecdote and observation is, however, more difficult and that is what makes threads like this one so fun.

I highlighted "teaching ability" because I think it's the most underrated element of Belichick's success and coaching success in general. You'll recall that one of the points Halberstam makes is that Belichick is not only his father's son as you point out but his mother's - and she was a teacher. Greg Cosell likes to say something along the lines of, "Any coach in the league can draw things on a blackboard that would blow your mind. But you have to be able to coach your players to do it."

There was a wonderful article about Belichick visiting Brian Kelly this offseason, and his comments were along these lines, not about scheme or tactics:

"He would watch a play and say, 'Why didn't your players adjust to that? Why didn't you let your player make that adjustment? He was in a four technique, an inside shade of the tackle, and you knew it was a boot down and you knew they were going to break contain, why didn't you let a four go to a five?'

Unfortunately, knowing teaching is incredibly important doesn't help us evaluate coaches as outsiders. I have no idea how to measure who's an effective teacher.

MarcSullivaFan · Jan 6, 2014

Stitch01 said:
I think pretty much everyone had John Harbaugh there in the top two tiers except one poster asking how to divide credit between a coach and a good front office.

He seems good although, like most coaches, overly conservative at times (playing for the 60 yard FG in Detroit was horrible)

I say that as someone who proudly hates all things of the mediocre Ravens.

Mea culpa. I should have read the OP more closely. Personally, I would put him in tier one over his brother.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 6, 2014

Al Zarilla said:
Mike Singletary stunk with the same front office that Jim Harbaugh works with. OK, Trent Baalke started as GM the same year that Harbaugh did as coach, but which one of them had the most to do with the immediate turnaround? The coach, of course. He immediately threw all confidence in Alex Smith, who responded very well, and the rest of the team in general all seemed to wake up and play to their potential under Harbaugh. If and when BB decides to go coach Navy, Jim H. would be the guy I'd most want to see replace him but I don't know how he would be pried out of SF.

The 49ers went 8-8 in 2009 and were everybody's trendy pick to be the breakout team of 2010, but slumped to 6-10 with Mike Singletary doing an all time terrible job. They then had a fantastic 2011 draft. Harbaugh has done a really nice job there - on some level, you can't argue with 36-12. But I'm not going to declare him one of the best 3-4 coaches in the NFL until he shows what he can do when he doesn't have the most talented roster in the league at his disposal.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 6, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Don't hate on Foles. He may hold onto the ball too long, but he doesn't turn it over. Calling him a product of Kellys offense is nonsense.

I like Foles a lot and think he's one of the better young QBs in the league. But there's "one of the better young QBs in the league" and then there's "Third best single season passer rating in the history of the NFL."

Super Nomario · Jan 6, 2014

Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
The 49ers went 8-8 in 2009 and were everybody's trendy pick to be the breakout team of 2010, but slumped to 6-10 with Mike Singletary doing an all time terrible job. They then had a fantastic 2011 draft. Harbaugh has done a really nice job there - on some level, you can't argue with 36-12. But I'm not going to declare him one of the best 3-4 coaches in the NFL until he shows what he can do when he doesn't have the most talented roster in the league at his disposal.

I think a lot of it comes down to how much of that talent you credit Harbaugh with developing. Alex Smith was a major disappointment before Harbaugh got there, but he coaxed 1.5 fine seasons out of him. Crabtree broke out under Harbaugh. Joe Staley and Anthony Davis were first-round talents but had been kind of disappointing before Harbaugh got there. Some of that is probably natural progression, and some is probably "any warm body replacing Singletary," but I think there's enough smoke to think there's fire.

One thing I don't think is coincidence is the emphasis on avoiding interceptions. Alex Smith went from a guy who was basically average at not getting picked off to one of the best in the league. Colin Kaepernick, for all his rawness and inconsistency, has thrown just 11 picks in 23 starts (14 in 27 counting playoffs). That's remarkable. There was an article in 2012 about Harbaugh basically getting Smith to take sacks instead of throwing picks. There was another in 2011 about how he simplified the offense to avoid mistakes. The 49ers have finished first or tied for first in fewest interceptions all three years Harbaugh's been there. That's remarkable.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Jan 6, 2014

Super Nomario said:
I think a lot of it comes down to how much of that talent you credit Harbaugh with developing. Alex Smith was a major disappointment before Harbaugh got there, but he coaxed 1.5 fine seasons out of him. Crabtree broke out under Harbaugh. Staley and Davis were first-round talents but had been kind of disappointing before Harbaugh got there. Some of that is probably natural progression, and some is probably "any warm body replacing Singletary," but I think there's enough smoke to think there's fire.

One thing I don't think is coincidence is the emphasis on avoiding interceptions. Alex Smith went from a guy who was basically average at not getting picked off to one of the best in the league. Colin Kaepernick, for all his rawness and inconsistency, has thrown just 11 picks in 23 starts (14 in 27 counting playoffs). That's remarkable. There was an article in 2012 about Harbaugh basically getting Smith to take sacks instead of throwing picks. There was another in 2011 about how he simplified the offense to avoid mistakes. The 49ers have finished first or tied for first in fewest interceptions all three years Harbaugh's been there. That's remarkable.

I think any disagreement is just a matter of degree - I like him a lot as a coach, I'm just not ready to put him at the pinnacle of the game yet. Your last paragraph (and the two articles cited) is great and a good example of the more specific arguments that really add substance to these debates in order to get beyond a simplistic perspective on W/L record or year-to-year turnaround.

Phragle · Jan 6, 2014

Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Don't hate on Foles. He may hold onto the ball too long, but he doesn't turn it over. Calling him a product of Kellys offense is nonsense.

Based on what?

Kliq · Jan 6, 2014

Pagano is a really interesting call. Last season is kind of hard to determine for him (Do you give a majority of the credit to Arians? Does "ChuckStrong" and team inspiration play a role?) but for those pointing out how bad Philly was in 2012, the Colts in 2011 were easily just as bad, if not a whole lot worse. When Pagano came in, this was a team with a talented rookie as a QB, a pair of good pass-rushers and a good veteran WR and that is about it. He turned that team into a playoff team in a single year, playing a majority of rookies on the offensive side of the ball. He took a team that was WORSE than Philly in 2012, and made a team that was argubably better than Philly in 2013.

Okay, so maybe last year was a special case. This year, Arians is gone and Pagano has the reigns for the entire season. In week one they lose the starting TE Dwayne Allen who helped loads in the passing AND running game. in Mid-October, their one reliable offensive threat goes on IR. Without any proven recievers and no running game at all, Indy still manages to go 11-5 and take a playoff game, with TY Hilton and Da'Rick Rogers as Luck's best options. Outside of Luck and Mathis, this team doesn't have a ton of star-level talent, but Pagano and Luck make it work. Guy deserves a ton of credit in my book.

Tony C · Jan 6, 2014

Speaking of Arians, the job he did last year and this year w/ a different club is really impressive. Too small a sample size to declare him a top tier coach, but I lvoe what he did with Carson Palmer. I thought he was toast coming into the year, he played like toast at the start of the year, and then really turned it around.

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