Does that make the A-10 a hunter or prey? I'm sure the CAA would love to have Richmond and Rhode Island (already football members).
Conference Realignment Thread
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
- Start date
Why should schools like Providence, Seton Hall and DePaul get a bigger cut than a school like Butler?
I can see why the Catholic 7 would want to bargain for it, even if I don't agree with all the elements. They probably see themselves as the founding schools, the ones who took the biggest risk by leaving an existing conference to go it on their own as a group. They likely see the invited schools as beneficiaries of their generosity rather than full partners in the process, since the new schools aren't leaping on their own or without a safety net. None of the invited schools could possibly create a conference like this on their own, or even as a quintet. Plus 5 of the 7 ex-Big East schools (all but Providence & Marquette) bring massive media markets to the table (NYC, Chicago, Philly, DC).
As an A10 fan who has been scarred shitless about the future of the conference for a while now, this report that the C7 are going to try to keep a larger share of the revenue than the new programs gives me a glimmer of hope that the conference may yet remain intact.
As I see it, Xavier is essentially the most powerful school involved right now, because the C7 desperately needs them. Without X, the C7 honestly doesn't look that much stronger than the A10. Georgetown is the only premier program in the C7, Marquette and Villanova have been strong but inconsistent, and Seton Hall, PC, DePaul, and St. John's have been nothing but bottom feeders for a while now.
Furthermore, a look at the on-campus arena situation of each C7 school reveals that they may find themselves in financial trouble in the not-too-distant future. Each school has very poor on-campus facilities and thus is forced to pay big sums of money to rent out major arenas. That wasn't a problem when they were playing in the one of the top conferences in the country, but without the likes of Syracuse and UConn coming to town every season, it is going to be very hard for them to fill those NBA arenas (it has been reported that Georgetown already loses $30,000 per game, for example, because they can't come close to filling the Verizon Center anymore). This TV deal will provide a nice shot in the arm, but without a few more top tier programs to join GU, MU, and VU, the C7 is not going to be financially solvent for much longer.
This is why I say X is in the driver's seat right now, because they are essentially the prettiest girl at the dance (Butler's program is obviously great too, but X has been consistently better for longer, and has a much bigger and more lucrative fanbase than Butler at the moment). The C7 desperately needs more top programs and X is clearly the best available. Having said that, there is no chance in hell X agrees to take less money than freaking DePaul. If the C7 tries to hold firm on that, X very well may decide to stay in the A10. If they decide to stay, Butler, Dayton, VCU, and St. Louis will decide to stay too, because they'll all realize that in 10 years or so, the A10 could be a stronger and more lucrative conference than whatever the C7 ends up building.
As I see it, Xavier is essentially the most powerful school involved right now, because the C7 desperately needs them. Without X, the C7 honestly doesn't look that much stronger than the A10. Georgetown is the only premier program in the C7, Marquette and Villanova have been strong but inconsistent, and Seton Hall, PC, DePaul, and St. John's have been nothing but bottom feeders for a while now.
Furthermore, a look at the on-campus arena situation of each C7 school reveals that they may find themselves in financial trouble in the not-too-distant future. Each school has very poor on-campus facilities and thus is forced to pay big sums of money to rent out major arenas. That wasn't a problem when they were playing in the one of the top conferences in the country, but without the likes of Syracuse and UConn coming to town every season, it is going to be very hard for them to fill those NBA arenas (it has been reported that Georgetown already loses $30,000 per game, for example, because they can't come close to filling the Verizon Center anymore). This TV deal will provide a nice shot in the arm, but without a few more top tier programs to join GU, MU, and VU, the C7 is not going to be financially solvent for much longer.
This is why I say X is in the driver's seat right now, because they are essentially the prettiest girl at the dance (Butler's program is obviously great too, but X has been consistently better for longer, and has a much bigger and more lucrative fanbase than Butler at the moment). The C7 desperately needs more top programs and X is clearly the best available. Having said that, there is no chance in hell X agrees to take less money than freaking DePaul. If the C7 tries to hold firm on that, X very well may decide to stay in the A10. If they decide to stay, Butler, Dayton, VCU, and St. Louis will decide to stay too, because they'll all realize that in 10 years or so, the A10 could be a stronger and more lucrative conference than whatever the C7 ends up building.
I'd love to be a fly on the wall when Butler is being asked to take less of a cut than basketball programs like Providence or Seton Hall.
A team that was just recently in back-to-back NCAA championship games is going to be asked to sacrifice more than a school that has done jack squat for the last 15-20 years?
Talk about balls.
A team that was just recently in back-to-back NCAA championship games is going to be asked to sacrifice more than a school that has done jack squat for the last 15-20 years?
Talk about balls.
They're not actually going to get less permanently. The C7 have to front the exit fees and start up costs, and new members to other big conferences don't get a full share right away anyway (like Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland w/ the B10).
It'll be equitable in the long run. The C7 aren't idiots; they're not going to screw this up by getting selfish.
It'll be equitable in the long run. The C7 aren't idiots; they're not going to screw this up by getting selfish.
The A10 still has a better TV deal and the conference tourney at the Barclays Center. I think they would raid the CAA. George Mason would be a good candidate, perhaps Drexel too.
It will be interesting to find out what happened at the Big East meeting today though. UMass could be on their way out as well.
Mark Zeigler ‏@sdutzeigler
Anyone who says SDSU has made up its mind on conference realignment is dead wrong. AD Jim Sterk is in Dallas for Big East meetings today.
Mark Zeigler ‏@sdutzeigler
I expect a decision from SDSU sometime next week. Sterk will consider what he learns from Big East, then weigh that vs. what MW is offering.
Tracy Ringolsby ‏@ROOTSPORTS_TR
Doesn't sound like Big East is making any bigger push to keep San Diego State. Aztecs value was as sidekick to Boise St.
Kyle Veazey ‏@kyleveazey
Just spoke to (Memphis AD) Tom Bowen, who attended today's Big East meeting in Dallas. "Very positive and very encouraging," he said.
Then there's this from Jeremy Fowler of CBS:
New Blauds up, and potential good news (FINALLY) for UConn. Also, just an incredible amount of craziness that could go on in the next few months, esp with the football side of things.
http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=4719
Basically UConn and Cincy are pursuing a plan to stick with the Catholic 7 for all non-football sports. Meanwhile UConn and Cincy would potentially move on from the "BE football league if San Diego state remains with the MWC. UConn/Cincy and the BE florida and/or Texas teams could also make a move to the MWC says Blauds.
Butler Xavier and potentially STL could join the existing 9 (if UConn and Cincy actually make this work) to make a very nice 12 team hoops league. And if UConn and Cincy ever leave, they could stay at 10 or add 2 other competent schools.
MSG would also be happy to keep the UConn fanbase at the garden for what could be a very competitive BET.
One of his sources (or maybe his only sources on this) are from UConn. As a basketball and then football fan, I would love this although I still would miss Cuse and Pitt. But all things considered, the hoops would be much better than what currently might happen.
Potential hoops league
UConn
Georgetown
Marquette
Cincy
Butler
Xavier
Villanova
Providence
St. Johns
Seton Hall
Depaul
**3rd additional school - St. Louis? Someone else?
The crazy scenario is football. Is it really feasible for UConn/Cincy to try to play in the MWC? Would they tick off the rest of the new "Big East" and everything just falls apart and they're looking at the MAC? Is Blauds just pulling some of this out of his ass?
Who knows. But for hoops, I'd be all for it.
http://ajerseyguy.com/?p=4719
Basically UConn and Cincy are pursuing a plan to stick with the Catholic 7 for all non-football sports. Meanwhile UConn and Cincy would potentially move on from the "BE football league if San Diego state remains with the MWC. UConn/Cincy and the BE florida and/or Texas teams could also make a move to the MWC says Blauds.
Butler Xavier and potentially STL could join the existing 9 (if UConn and Cincy actually make this work) to make a very nice 12 team hoops league. And if UConn and Cincy ever leave, they could stay at 10 or add 2 other competent schools.
MSG would also be happy to keep the UConn fanbase at the garden for what could be a very competitive BET.
One of his sources (or maybe his only sources on this) are from UConn. As a basketball and then football fan, I would love this although I still would miss Cuse and Pitt. But all things considered, the hoops would be much better than what currently might happen.
Potential hoops league
UConn
Georgetown
Marquette
Cincy
Butler
Xavier
Villanova
Providence
St. Johns
Seton Hall
Depaul
**3rd additional school - St. Louis? Someone else?
The crazy scenario is football. Is it really feasible for UConn/Cincy to try to play in the MWC? Would they tick off the rest of the new "Big East" and everything just falls apart and they're looking at the MAC? Is Blauds just pulling some of this out of his ass?
Who knows. But for hoops, I'd be all for it.
From that same Blauds piece:
A few days ago Andy Katz's column had this blurb:
But following today's BE meetings, UMass sports blogger Matt Creedon tweeted this:
The only place where this is conceivable is in Uconn's dreams. The C7 aren't going to let in two football schools* who will be maneuvering to join a football conference the second the ink dries.
*I know UConn and Cincy aren't really "football schools", but that's whats driving the bus right now for every school that has a football team.
It's not in UConn dreams. They deny it categorically. The only reporting this is Blauds and he hasn't been covering himself in glory lately
I can't see it ether. I guess maybe if as Blauds kind of suggests, that schools like Creighton and VCU would be just as available in 3 years as they are today. But still unless you are able to sell UConn and Cincy to the networks to get more money, I am not sure what value they bring the league and I think you would want to move forward with a conference that can be together longterm, and shares more of a similar size and student base.
I guess maybe you could let them in and give them big buyouts to leave. Basically set up something like a 5 -6 year plan. So basically they commit to 5 years, and if they leave before they, they basically pay an exit fee equal to what they would have earned in the remaining years. So if they leave in 2 years pay 3 years of TV fees. Leave in 4 years Pay 1 year of TV fee as an exit
Name-wise, that's maybe true. Results-wise, Marquette's a better program than Georgetown and has been more consistent in recent decades (they've made the tournament every year since 2005 and have only missed it 6 times in the last 20 years; Georgetown's missed it 9 times in that period despite having an auto-bid option and a name that makes the selection committee want to pick them).
Wouldn't having UConn in the conference valuable to Providence, St. John's, Nova, and G'Town? Would be better for them to travel to Storrs especially for their non-revenue sports vs. traveling to St. Louis or Omaha. Also if Cincy joins as well that makes 9 Big East schools that will be in this conference. Would give them a bigger claim to the Big East name should they want it.
It is quite possibly just speculation on Blauds' part with this article, but I can't see why this wouldn't at least be discussed an option for UConn and Cincy right now. They ultimately see themselves in the ACC, but for the meantime do they really want to be playing in a basketball conference with Tulane and ECU? UConn to the MWC for FB would be ridiculous, but perhaps they could just stash their FB program in the MAC for a couple of years. They're already going to be in a mid-major FB conference anyway with what's left of the Big East and they'd get to be in a much better conference for the rest of their sports.
Nothing new, per se, but Bowlsby did make some interesting comments about Big 12 expansion. This most curious quote to me in Dennis Dodd's CBS article was this ...
“That's exactly one of the questions we'll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don't bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.' “
... Does this mean they're going to examine how feasible some combo of BYU/Cincy/UConn would be? Or could this be a shot to Florida State, warning that USF could be on the table if it's content with the ACC?
“That's exactly one of the questions we'll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don't bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.' “
... Does this mean they're going to examine how feasible some combo of BYU/Cincy/UConn would be? Or could this be a shot to Florida State, warning that USF could be on the table if it's content with the ACC?
From that article: The issue remains whether adding additional remembers would bring pro rata – equal or higher money than the current schools make
I believe it's been reported that the Big 12 cannot reopen their TV deals by adding more teams, as the ACC has done twice now, so that would mean at best they'll get pro rata revenue with expansion. If Texas and Oklahoma aren't going to realize more $$$ with expansion I'm not clear on what their motivation would be to pursue it.
Agree with that, 8slim. Everyone in the Big 12 has basically said if it costs schools money, it's not worth it. I think that Bowlsby quote was intended for Florida State. Without Florida State, they probably don't expand, especially with the logistics of two divisions, who gets access to Texas recruits, who gets access to Florida recruits, etc.
Also, since I didn't see it posted: San Diego State made it official and will remain in the Mountain West.
Also, since I didn't see it posted: San Diego State made it official and will remain in the Mountain West.
Its a matter of who moves first, the B1G or the Big12. Everyone is waiting for the MD exit fee to be resolved. The MD AD sued the ACC today. the ACC is not paying MD its portion of the TV rights from this year. fun times. As soon as they settle (and Swofford has to play hardball in hopes of saving his conference - having the $50M upheld is the only small chance he ahs of keeping the ACC together), FSU and UNC will decide where to go (FSU to the big12 and UNC to either the B1G or the SEC) and start the chain reaction. I'm guessing every school in the conference is begging to get a seat at the big boy table.
Of course, ND will "monitor the situation," then eventually leave the ACC behind. the thing is, ESPN owns all the rights to the ACC and only partial rights to the other conferences. The ACC falling apart hurts them, thus you know Fox will pony up to help the big12. The SEC network is coming soon, too, which will also hurt ESPN.
edit: also, as far as Uconn to the C7 in hoops/olympics, the C7 would love to have them even if they knew they'd leave at the first sniff of an invite from one of the football conferences. why? Uconn immediately becomes the biggest brand program in the conference and gets them more $$ in their TV deal. but its likely not going to happen, even if Uconn never gets invited to play with the big kids.
Of course, ND will "monitor the situation," then eventually leave the ACC behind. the thing is, ESPN owns all the rights to the ACC and only partial rights to the other conferences. The ACC falling apart hurts them, thus you know Fox will pony up to help the big12. The SEC network is coming soon, too, which will also hurt ESPN.
edit: also, as far as Uconn to the C7 in hoops/olympics, the C7 would love to have them even if they knew they'd leave at the first sniff of an invite from one of the football conferences. why? Uconn immediately becomes the biggest brand program in the conference and gets them more $$ in their TV deal. but its likely not going to happen, even if Uconn never gets invited to play with the big kids.
The Big 10 not done yet according to Brett McMurphy Another tweet said they are looking in the east further south.
Brett McMurphy
@McMurphyESPN
After Md./RU joined B1G, Ohio St. Prez Gordon Gee said Dec. 5 B1G expansion talks "ongoing" @brdispatch reports
https://mobile.twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/294851847976542208
Brett McMurphy
@McMurphyESPN
After Md./RU joined B1G, Ohio St. Prez Gordon Gee said Dec. 5 B1G expansion talks "ongoing" @brdispatch reports
https://mobile.twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/294851847976542208
It's got to be GT and UNC they're focused on. Neither VA nor VA Tech provide sufficient TV markets.
Rumors within the Capitol say its UNC and UVA/GT. Penn State just cancelled their UVA games too, so maybe that's something.
This continues to be about perception. Cincinnati is better than GT and Uconn id not that far behind Unc.
No, this continues to be about TV markets. Attempting to turn this into a "Yeah, but School XXX is better in sports than School YYY!!!" debate is a non-starter. It doesn't matter. As long as the institutions in question all meet certain minimum competence criteria, the market size will win the day -- assuming the targeted schools agree to jump ship.bsj said:
And by the way, if the Big Ten is as focused on academics as many sources seem to indicate, there's no way in hell Cinci or UConn come remotely close to either GT or UNC.
the Big Ten is positioning itself to make more money and make their programs in the conference better.
I'm not sure exactly going to work, because the brands of of those programs just don't reach the high enough level.
Nebraska was the best move any of the conferences gave made because the Nebraska brand is so good. What kind of brand do Rutgers, Maryland, UNC football, Virginia, Georgia Tech football actually bring the conference?
North Carolina has a lot of potential, Virginia and Maryland much less so and only because Virginia Tech seems to be stumbling, and Georgia Tech will just always be a distant #2
the only 1 of those that is even the number 1 brand in its market is North Carolina, we all know UNC football just isn't that good. As a football brand, Rutgers is probably fourth in their market, UVA and Maryland are both behind Virginia Tech, and GT will never ever catch Georgia.
it's one thing to go into a market with extra money and make a program improve, it's a whole other thing to make a lesser program improve enough to challenge the higher programs that market. a crappy brand in a good market will devalue the brand of the league. no amount of money can overcome that.
I'm not sure exactly going to work, because the brands of of those programs just don't reach the high enough level.
Nebraska was the best move any of the conferences gave made because the Nebraska brand is so good. What kind of brand do Rutgers, Maryland, UNC football, Virginia, Georgia Tech football actually bring the conference?
North Carolina has a lot of potential, Virginia and Maryland much less so and only because Virginia Tech seems to be stumbling, and Georgia Tech will just always be a distant #2
the only 1 of those that is even the number 1 brand in its market is North Carolina, we all know UNC football just isn't that good. As a football brand, Rutgers is probably fourth in their market, UVA and Maryland are both behind Virginia Tech, and GT will never ever catch Georgia.
it's one thing to go into a market with extra money and make a program improve, it's a whole other thing to make a lesser program improve enough to challenge the higher programs that market. a crappy brand in a good market will devalue the brand of the league. no amount of money can overcome that.
Per an Austin American-Statesman story, Bowlsby says the Big 12 is considering a scheduling alliance with three conferences, though the ACC is the only one he mentioned by name. Why he didn't name the other two -- Pac-12, you would have to believe, is one of them given its previous agreement with the Big Ten that since dissolved -- is anyone's guess.
Also worth noting that the Big 12 will meet Monday and Tuesday to have "philosophical" discussions about conference expansion.
Also worth noting that the Big 12 will meet Monday and Tuesday to have "philosophical" discussions about conference expansion.
If this were to come closer to reality in the weeks/months ahead, wouldn't this idea speed up the decision making by the B1G and SEC to take the teams they want now before the ACC/B12 teams put their names to this new contract which will likely give them more money and more quality OOC scheduling?
On the flip side, if these conferences agree to this "alliance" and the B1G gets shutout of the ACC/B12 ( a big IF), does that mean UConn has an outside shot at getting an invite? I'm on my knees over here for someone to make a phone call to CT.
On the flip side, if these conferences agree to this "alliance" and the B1G gets shutout of the ACC/B12 ( a big IF), does that mean UConn has an outside shot at getting an invite? I'm on my knees over here for someone to make a phone call to CT.
This latest talk of a Big XII/ACC/PAC-12 "alliance" just shows how stupidly short-sighted conference expansion has been.
The conspiracy theorists would have you believe there is some master plan being implemented that ends up with a tidy 4X16 super-power conference model. The reality is that these dopey ADs and college presidents are just careening from one "plan" to another. I mean all 3 of these conferences just signed long-term media deals within the past 18 months. Now they're going to blow those up for this alliance? Because the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland?
Larry Scott is the only guy with a lick of sense. He wants a 70-ish team college league that negotiates its deals as one entity (ala the NFL, NBA and MLB ) and aligns by logical geography. Of course that would yield tons more money and the establishment of the rivalries that fuel fan interest. Of course that means there is zero chance it will happen.
Idiots, all of them.
The conspiracy theorists would have you believe there is some master plan being implemented that ends up with a tidy 4X16 super-power conference model. The reality is that these dopey ADs and college presidents are just careening from one "plan" to another. I mean all 3 of these conferences just signed long-term media deals within the past 18 months. Now they're going to blow those up for this alliance? Because the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland?
Larry Scott is the only guy with a lick of sense. He wants a 70-ish team college league that negotiates its deals as one entity (ala the NFL, NBA and MLB ) and aligns by logical geography. Of course that would yield tons more money and the establishment of the rivalries that fuel fan interest. Of course that means there is zero chance it will happen.
Idiots, all of them.
Slim, that sounds like an interesting idea to me. Would this Scott deal with TV be just for football? What would happen to the 200 something BBall teams that would left out.
and what would happen to schools like BC who would rather play like minded schools 1000 miles away then play with their geographic rivals? Can't imagine they'd sign up for that.
and what would happen to schools like BC who would rather play like minded schools 1000 miles away then play with their geographic rivals? Can't imagine they'd sign up for that.
8slim said:
The Scott plan does seem great and awful at the same time. Sure for a school like BC it would be great to share the TV money evenly, while at the same time it would be pretty lousy for the home/road schedule.
On the other hand a school like Texas, Bama, Ohio State who brings a ton more viewers to the TV sets gets a lot less money, which I am sure would piss them off. Also they may not like who they end up with Geographically as they lose some rivals. Also of course the divisions are going to be horribly unbalanced when it comes to quality of play, and thus quality of champion
BigMike said:
Well, I assume that Scott's vision is that a "league" like that would actually generate more money for the heavy hitters you mentioned. Obviously there's no point in doing it if it was going to yield less.
What do the richest schools/conferences make from their existing TV deals right now? $25 million/year? I'm talking Tier 1 and 2 only, and not including the murkiness of conference cable networks. Let's say Scott had to get $40M/year for every member for it to be even possible. That's an annual rights deal of a little over $3 billion, assuming this "league" had ~75 schools (including all 64 currently in/joining the 5 majors, along with spots for some of the more prominent leftovers like BYU, UConn, etc). That's not exactly an outlandish figure, given the value of football and the sheer scope of hoops inventory that'd be sold. The NFL rakes in $5-6 billion from it's primary TV deals. CBS pays nearly $1 billion/year for the men's hoops tourney alone.
Anyway, it'll never happen.
Apparently Gene Smith favors being in the same conference as Michigan, and Brandon "would certainly not be opposed to being in the same division as OSU if it was in the best interest of our conference."
If that's the case, it cuts pretty easily, right?
East- Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana/Purdue
West- Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana/Purdue
If that's the case, it cuts pretty easily, right?
East- Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana/Purdue
West- Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana/Purdue
I know programs go through ebbs and flows, but almost have to split up the 6 best programs in the conference, right (Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin).Infield Infidel said:
Interesting read about the Great South Athletic Conference and how the realignment craze has had impacts even down to the Division III level. In this case, the geographic alignment reaches the point of hyperbolic ridicule.
To set the stage, in 2011 its 9 members were all in the heart of the southeast covering just 4 states: AL, GA, NC & TN.
To set the stage, in 2011 its 9 members were all in the heart of the southeast covering just 4 states: AL, GA, NC & TN.
I think you're overlooking Iowa which is at least on the same level as Michigan State if not a small cut abovegmogmo said:
And we don't yet know how good PSU will be post Paterno and post sanctions
Hearing rumors that both Merrimack and UMass-Lowell want to upgrade all of their athletics to Division I. Looks like prime targets for the America East.
All valid points, guess I'm thinking Wiscy is also likely to take a step back and Michigan and Ohio State likely to dominate the conference for short-medium term future as well.Infield Infidel said:
Notre Dame would run to the Catholic 7 in a heart beat if that happened. Hell they are still on the fence now and ACC is getting nervous.axx said:
TomRicardo said:
Or, more likely, ND would stay put in a conference that would be substantially similar to the Big East before all the crazy shuffling.
mabrowndog said:Interesting read about the Great South Athletic Conference and how the realignment craze has had impacts even down to the Division III level. In this case, the geographic alignment reaches the point of hyperbolic ridicule.
To set the stage, in 2011 its 9 members were all in the heart of the southeast covering just 4 states: AL, GA, NC & TN.
How does Mills College or Maine - Presque Isle afford a trip for the women's soccer team (insert non-revenue sport here) to play away games?
Do they head south for a week and play 5 games?
Insane.
in the end I don't think it matters, in the big picture. they need to make it easier for fans to travel to road games and if they're going to spread to the east coast they need to have the teams in the each region together.gmogmo said: