That's definitely a factor taken into consideration. It will be more important as the season goes on.Kliq said:Something I think is super important in the Seattle/SD game (which I teased) is that Seattle played last Thursday night, while San Diego played that weird 11pm ET MNF game. That is a big difference between the two teams, Seattle is pretty lethal heading into games with a lot of time to study their opponent.
SMU_Sox said:New Orleans will have a soft landing for their defense to rebound in week 2. If they can't stop this anemic offense then we know New Orleans defensive coordinator Rob Ryan needs to make some serious adjustments.
HomeRunBaker said:My head scratcher of the week is NO favored by 6 on the road. Cleveland +6 is the official HRB Play of the Week.
SMU_Sox said:I only need New Orleans to win. I hope Hoyer and any other non highly-picked QB have great days. The odds are stacked against those guys. Was there any QB more enjoyable in his prime than the patron saint of long-shots, Kurt Warner? Hoyer's former Patriot status is just another plus.
I rarely bet anything but teasers and tiny parlays. The parlays are typically for fun but last year I hit quite a few 5 play parlays. Last year by mid season roughly 82% of my teasers hit. If you randomly put together teasers you need each teaser to hit 72.36% of the time to break even. 72.36% x 72.36% = 52.36%. The typical casino return on a teaser is if you risk 1 unit you can win an additional .91 units. I have to win 52.36% of my plays to break even at that rate. The average 6 point teaser hits 68% of the time. If my system gets back on track that's a comfortable margin for success. If 80% of teasers teams hit you will get a return of 22.24% per week (on average).
You could get 2 team Wong's at even money for a long time so there was basically no vig on those. The 5% was just a simplified description based on the standard -110 juice line on a purportedly 50/50 proposition.SMU_Sox said:5% vig? I'm assuming 9 to 11% on average. This obviously depends on the casino and the day.
Oklahoma -7 at WVU , seems like a good candidate for a teaserDeathofthebambino said:I'm seeing a ton of lines this weekend that fall within the Wong teaser territory, so I just threw a couple in for short money. I did 3 team, 6 point teasers, which pay +156 at my site.
San Diego +8.5 @ Atlanta
Giants +8 vs. Houston
Auburn -2.5 @ Kansas State
UCONN +8 @ South Florida
Wake Forest +8.5 vs. Army
North Carolina +8.5 @ East Carolina
We'll see how it goes.
SMU_Sox said:Do you want to know my plays? My plan was to give 5 to 6 teams I liked a week and let the reader pick his or her pairs based on what was most persuasive to them.
My plays last week:
I had 3 teasers all at +6. 1) Denver-Seattle (missed), 2) Pittsburgh-New Orleans (missed), and 3) New England- Buffalo (hit).
For each bet I wagered .5 units to win .455. So I ended up losing .545 units. I can track my overall bet record and the % of teams that hit their end of the teaser.
Keep the feedback coming! Thank you.
Yeah, I don't get it. They had the 4th-best defense in the league last year in both scoring and yardage (10th in DVOA). This year they are 31st in scoring 30th in yardage, 31st in DVOA. As far as I know, they didn't suffer any significant losses to the unit in the offseason or to injury, and they replaced Malcolm Jenkins with Jairus Byrd. I thought they would have an above-average defense, but instead they are garbage.SMU_Sox said:I spent about two hours puring through the games to get into what went wrong. That New Orleans defense is shockingly bad.
The achillies heel for New Orleans defense is their terrible LB personnel and play. Rob Ryan played his safeties back in order to compensate for horrible LB coverage problems. Against the Browns I saw similar issues. The blown assignments were alarming and there were too many of them.Stitch01 said:The Grantland podcast said in week one that they played safeties way off and didn't play physical with WRs off the line and the Falcons just crushed against that scheme. Not sure if they did that against Cleveland but would be real curious.
FO says Vacaro has been bad and is a main culprit. Also suggests more three safety looks.
A $5 bet was poised to turn into a $100,000 payday before the Indianapolis Colts melted down Monday night.
A bettor in the Delaware Sports Lottery picked 14 consecutive NFL winners against the spread over the weekend. His 15th pick would have turned the $5, 15-team parlay card into a $100,000 winner. Unfortunately, they took the Colts to beat the Philadelphia Eagles by more than a field goal.
I'd at least hope the guy got his hands on some cash and made a day trip to Vegas to hedge with 15-20k or so.DrewDawg said:
HomeRunBaker said:I'd at least hope the guy got his hands on some cash and made a day trip to Vegas to hedge with 15-20k or so.
Haha, DoTB, your bet kept me watching that game. Incredible coverDeathofthebambino said:Yeah, so umm 2-0 now after a ludicrous back door cover by UConn. UConn was having the worst offensive day in the history of the school and then somehow went 75 yards on 4 plays with less than 2 minutes left, and ended up losing 17-14. They had a total of 57 yards of offense (net) before that drive.