Could Mookie Betts have an impact on 2014 Red Sox?

[PrometheusWakefield]

I'll take my question offline, because I'm more curious what others think than what I think. 
 
But understand I'm talking about Betts playing a direct role here, not used as trade bait or anything else. 

 

[Cesar Crespo]

A lot of people envision him being what Xander was in 2013. Of course he could potentially do so at many positions.

I think the question is how big of an impact he can have. Are we looking at July or September for a call up? Do they keep his Rookie status like they did X? Would they send JBJ back down if he is hitting .200 at the end of June?

 

[Otis Foster]

He has to have at least some experience in AAA. I wouldn't expose him to ML pitching without that. He should succeed at each level.
 
I think a lot of young players have been damaged by premature exposure to ML ball. We may be looking at two in JBJR and WM.
 
(I know, they had minor league exposure but not resounding success, esp. JBJR.)

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If we're putting the caveat on the question that being trade bait doesn't count, then I vote no impact on 2014.  He's barely got any time in at AA.  Just because he's tearing it up now doesn't mean he doesn't still have some learning and developing to do at that level before he moves up to AAA.
 
Even with as well as he's playing right now in Portland, I think if he were to come up to the big club, his contributions would more resemble 2013 JBJ than 2013 Xander.

 

[curly2]

I think there is a chance he could be this year's Xander, but Betts is 78-for-89 in steals in the minors, so if the Sox contend and the team doesn't feel he's ready to start, he could possibly fill the Dave Roberts/Quintin Berry role.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

I don't see any reason he can't be a reasonable upgrade to the LF (if the reports he can indeed field the position are true) slop that the Sox have trotted out this season.  Agree with the theme of letting him either move to AAA or just simply keep rolling on a larger sample size before any decisions are made.

 

[soxhop411]

Back to back starts in the OF for him… Perahaps they see him as an OF (since playing 2B is out of the question) now, and could see some MLB time if he does well with this OF test

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

He could see some impact as a 10th guy, able to play several positions, pinch hit, and pinch run.  I envision him as a modern day Jose Oquendo. 
 
He should be a September call-up, if not sooner, the team's lack of success may be a bigger hinderance to his having an "impact" in 2014, rather than his skills and experience.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

In homage to Eric Van, can you spot Betts' AA numbers compared to Bogaerts, WMB, and JBJ?
 
356 PA; 315/392/531 (922 OPS)
181 PA; 382/453/586 (1039 OPS)
397 PA; 302/345/520 (865 OPS)
271 PA; 271/373/437 (809 OPS)
 

Spoiler

OF COURSE YOU CAN BECAUSE HE'S GOING TO SINGLEHANDEDLY CARRY THE 2014 TEAM TO THE WORLD SERIES!

 

[Plympton91]

Bogaerts, Betts, Middlebrooks, Bradley.

 

[mwonow]

Bogaerts, Betts, Middlebrooks, Bradley.

 
"What is 'two up, two down', Alex!"

 

[LostinNJ]

His main impact will be that the delight we get in imagining what he will do in 2015 and beyond will make this dreary season tolerable. He will not play in the majors this year.

 

[Rasputin]

Of course he could have a major impact. As curly mentioned, he could fill the Dave Roberts role and as we all know, that role can have an enormous impact on a game and a game can be the difference in a postseason series.
 
I see two scenarios where he has a significant impact.
 
1) He's on the post season roster as a supersub and either steals an important base or manages to come up in an important spot because the NL sucks.
 
2) He continues to destroy AA through June, comes up to AAA and destroys it in July and August, comes up in September and excels in limited time before someone gets hurt, forcing him into a more prominent role than anyone really anticipated.
 
Regardless, I want him up in September and actually, now that I think of it, he could certainly have an impact in a critical game if the Sox are in a dogfight. Just to imagine one scenario, the Sox are playing at the Yankees, tied in the standings, Lester against Tanaka, Betts plays left because he's got better range there than anyone else we could put there. He makes a catch or two that Gomes wouldn't get and if it's in the right situation, it could be huge.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

His main impact will be that the delight we get in imagining what he will do in 2015 and beyond will make this dreary season tolerable. He will not play in the majors this year.

 
Ah, the Pedroia/Ellsbury role of 2005 2006. That's a good role in an otherwise downer of a year.  ("He ran down a deer!")
 
--
Edit: Thanks to mt8thsw9th for correcting the year.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

Heck, let's do this:
 
21-year-old Manny Ramirez's AA numbers: 400 PA; 341/418590 (1007 OPS)
20-year-old Miguel Cabrera's: 303 PA; 365/429/609 (1038 OPS)
 
The last 21-year-old to put up numbers like Betts in the Eastern League was David Wright in 2004; he played 60 games at AA, 31 at AAA (967 OPS), and then got called up July 21, playing 69 games with an 857 OPS. Bogaerts played 56/60 last year at AA/AAA. I bet he's here before September.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

 
Ah, the Pedroia/Ellsbury role of 2005.  That's a good role in an otherwise downer of a year.  ("He ran down a deer!")

 
Ellsbury's role that year was to be drafted and play in Lowell, and for Pedroia it was to play most of the season at AA. Betts is a different beast, though the system in 2005 had faced quite a bit of lean years so I can't recall the buzz vis-a-vis those two.

 

[soxhop411]

Brendan McGair ‏@BWMcGair03  2m
Tonight also marks Mookie Betts' fifth straight start in CF for the @PawSox #RedSox
 
Seems like are trying out Mookie in the OF before they trade any valuable pieces to get an OF'er from another team 

 

[KillerBs]

Perhaps this is obvious, but pre-September, they need prioritize Betts' development and not chase any potential speculative, likely minimal, upside he could offer this year.  Let him spend the summer learning to play CF at PAW, which should give us a better sense of what we got with him.

 

[Larry Gardner]

A little bit off topic, but hope it's interesting.....I know his family here in the Nashville area, and they're all pretty good bowlers.  It would have been interesting if John Burkett was still around, and Mookie could be used as the pinch-bowler....Mookie still has the all-time high school record here in Nashville with an 827 series and did have a 300 game with it.  Multi-talented athelete........
 
Thought I'd add, FYI, in case anyone was interested...... 

 

[Bone Chips]

Given the hype I was shocked to see how small he is. 5'9" 156. I can't imagine even his MLB ceiling being close to a .900 OPS, let alone 1.000. I hope to God they don't bring this kid up in 2014 while he is being compared to sluggers like Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright.

 

[radsoxfan]

I don't think the Cabrera or Manny comparisons are meant to say he is likely going to be like them in the majors.  He is a totally different player.  It was just meant to show how much he dominated AA. 
 
The hope is that he turns into a faster and more athletic version of Pedroia. No one is actually expecting Manny/Cabrera.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Given the hype I was shocked to see how small he is. 5'9" 156. I can't imagine even his MLB ceiling being close to a .900 OPS, let alone 1.000. I hope to God they don't bring this kid up in 2014 while he is being compared to sluggers like Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright.

Toy Cannon 2.0, Jimmy Wynn. 291 career home runs. Career slash .250/.366/.436. BA a bit low but who cares a lot anymore. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

One side of me says "Rushing him along could harm his development!!" but the logical side of me can't find any evidence that would be the case. 

Honestly, if Betts is as good a baserunner/stealler as advertised and his plate discipline translates to the bigs he could be a very effective piece for us. The only spot though is the outfield and with Holt red hot this season he might have left field locked down for the forseeable future. If Bradley goes down for more seasoning maybe Mookie takes CF or if Vic needs more time off he plays RF? 

Anyway, I wonder about a possible logjam here. Unless Betts is going to be a big difference maker to us, there's no harm in leaving him to season in AAA and keep his clock unused. 

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Given the hype I was shocked to see how small he is. 5'9" 156. I can't imagine even his MLB ceiling being close to a .900 OPS, let alone 1.000. I hope to God they don't bring this kid up in 2014 while he is being compared to sluggers like Manny Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and David Wright.

 
Was Manny much taller than 5'10"? He was listed at 6', but that seems dubious. Cespedes is listed at 5'10", as is McCutchen. Adrian Beltre isn't very tall. I always thought excessive height was more of a detriment than a bit below average height for hitters.
 
Anyhow, we are in red herring territory vis-a-vis height and OPS. I don't think anyone should dream he's a .900+ OPS player, but if he's .800+ with a high OBP, he's going to be a very valuable player. There's not much to say he couldn't be that.

 

[nvalvo]

One side of me says "Rushing him along could harm his development!!" but the logical side of me can't find any evidence that would be the case. 

Honestly, if Betts is as good a baserunner/stealler as advertised and his plate discipline translates to the bigs he could be a very effective piece for us. The only spot though is the outfield and with Holt red hot this season he might have left field locked down for the forseeable future. If Bradley goes down for more seasoning maybe Mookie takes CF or if Vic needs more time off he plays RF? 

Anyway, I wonder about a possible logjam here. Unless Betts is going to be a big difference maker to us, there's no harm in leaving him to season in AAA and keep his clock unused. 

 
It's pretty unlikely that Brock Holt has left field locked down. He's a nice piece, and Farrell should play him everyday while he's red hot, but there's not much to suggest he's actually this good.
 
His BABIP is .413 right now, and while some of that is supported by a nifty 23.9% LD rate, I would not expect him to maintain that level as he cools down, nor would I expect him to maintain an 11.6% infield hit percentage — something more typically expected on Ichiro Suzuki's fangraphs page (league average is 6.5%).
 
His career OBP-heavy .722 OPS is nothing to sneeze at for a player with his positional versatility, but I wouldn't worry about Holt causing any logjams. 

 

[Reverend]

I still don't feel I understand player development to know how hard transitions are and the degree to which changes hurt besides the obvious insight that more reps at the position you want to play the guy at are better.
 
That said, while he apparently doesn't have the arm for RF, Betts looks like he has a bit of outfielder at him:
 

 
This gif is a bit weird in that it only plays once, so right click the image and load in a new tab or something if it's not moving and you want to see it.

 

[Bone Chips]

Was Manny much taller than 5'10"? He was listed at 6', but that seems dubious.

I don't know, I stood next to Manny once and he was much much bigger than me, and I'm 5'9" 170.
 

Anyhow, we are in red herring territory vis-a-vis height and OPS. I don't think anyone should dream he's a .900+ OPS player, but if he's .800+ with a high OBP, he's going to be a very valuable player.

I think that's the disconnect I am talking about. He's being talked about like an uber-prospect, the type of impact player that will make a big difference. An .800 OPS is slightly above average for a major league center fielder. http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id136.html

The sad thing is he is a major upgrade over what we have now. I just worry about him being overhyped and brought up with expectations that are way too high.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

I think that's the disconnect I am talking about. He's being talked about like an uber-prospect, the type of impact player that will make a big difference. An .800 OPS is slightly above average for a major league center fielder. http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id136.html

The sad thing is he is a major upgrade over what we have now. I just worry about him being overhyped and brought up with expectations that are way too high.

 
Dude, follow the first word that's linked in that article - the data is from 2007. League average CF this year is 708. Last year it was 737. If Betts had an 800 OPS, he'd be the second best offensive CF in the AL. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

 
It's pretty unlikely that Brock Holt has left field locked down. He's a nice piece, and Farrell should play him everyday while he's red hot, but there's not much to suggest he's actually this good.
 
His BABIP is .413 right now, and while some of that is supported by a nifty 23.9% LD rate, I would not expect him to maintain that level as he cools down, nor would I expect him to maintain an 11.6% infield hit percentage — something more typically expected on Ichiro Suzuki's fangraphs page (league average is 6.5%).
 
His career OBP-heavy .722 OPS is nothing to sneeze at for a player with his positional versatility, but I wouldn't worry about Holt causing any logjams. 

 
I dunno, sure Holt is hot but I don't think it's far fetched to imagine that he's one of our 9 best hitters at the end of the season. Add to that the fact that he's edged out on the infield it seems likely that we keep him in the lineup for most of the season which would create a logjam. 

 

[rodderick]

I don't know, I stood next to Manny once and he was much much bigger than me, and I'm 5'9" 170.
 

I think that's the disconnect I am talking about. He's being talked about like an uber-prospect, the type of impact player that will make a big difference. An .800 OPS is slightly above average for a major league center fielder. http://scoresheetwiz.tripod.com/id136.html

The sad thing is he is a major upgrade over what we have now. I just worry about him being overhyped and brought up with expectations that are way too high.

 
Dude, really? Anyway, Betts may very well struggle in the big leagues, but his performance in the minors thus far has been about as good as you can possibly dream of for a young kid with above average defensive skills/versatility/base running. Keeping someone in the minors because you're afraid he won't live up to expectations when his performance does nothing to suggest that is just ridiculous. If they feel he's ready, he'll play.

 

[Bone Chips]

 
Dude, follow the first word that's linked in that article - the data is from 2007. League average CF this year is 708. Last year it was 737. If Betts had an 800 OPS, he'd be the second best offensive CF in the AL. 

I'm well aware of that.  It was the most immediately available data I could find to illustrate a general point, one that still stands - that an .800 OPS center fielder does not correlate into a "very valuable player".  Of the 21 qualified center fielders in baseball this year the average OPS is .753.  I calculated the data the old fashioned way by aggregating the individual player info from ESPN.  Of the qualified center fielders, an .800 OPS would come in at #7 of 21.  These numbers are obviously skewed in that they encompass only the first two months of the season.  OPS historically gets higher during the summer months.  I'm willing to bet that at the end of the season an .800 OPS will likely come in about 8th or 9th of 21 - which as I stated is slightly above average.

 

[OttoC]

In 2013 there were six CFs with at least 400 PA who had OPS >= .800 (and 20 >= .700). Note: the requirement on bb-ref Play Index is that they played at least 50% of their games in center; if the percentage of games played is raised to 70% or even 90%, the number of qualifiers drops to five. This was AL and NL.

 

[Reverend]

I'm well aware of that.  It was the most immediately available data I could find to illustrate a general point, one that still stands - that an .800 OPS center fielder does not correlate into a "very valuable player".  Of the 21 qualified center fielders in baseball this year the average OPS is .753.  I calculated the data the old fashioned way by aggregating the individual player info from ESPN.  Of the qualified center fielders, an .800 OPS would come in at #7 of 21.  These numbers are obviously skewed in that they encompass only the first two months of the season.  OPS historically gets higher during the summer months.  I'm willing to bet that at the end of the season an .800 OPS will likely come in about 8th or 9th of 21 - which as I stated is slightly above average.

 
I'm having trouble understanding any of this...

• How is 2007 OPS data the most immediately available data?
• Why are you claiming that an .800 OPS CF is not very valuable when Ellsbury's .781 made him a zillion dollar player?
• Why are you claiming that an .800 OPS would come in at #7 among qualified CFs when it's currently #6? Or did you mean 2013 and not say so?
• If you wanted to account for heating up, why didn't you look at 2013 where .800 OPS would be #7? Or, if that is what you are talking about, why do you think #7 is MLB isn't so great?
• Why haven't you noted that only 21 CFs even qualify which actually says something?

 
.800 OPS in the AL with ++ fielding at CF is a very valuable player. Of course, none of that explains why you didn't just say what you just said rather than send your readers to go look at six year old irrelevant data.

 

[Toe Nash]

I'm well aware of that.  It was the most immediately available data I could find to illustrate a general point, one that still stands - that an .800 OPS center fielder does not correlate into a "very valuable player".  Of the 21 qualified center fielders in baseball this year the average OPS is .753.  I calculated the data the old fashioned way by aggregating the individual player info from ESPN.  Of the qualified center fielders, an .800 OPS would come in at #7 of 21.  These numbers are obviously skewed in that they encompass only the first two months of the season.  OPS historically gets higher during the summer months.  I'm willing to bet that at the end of the season an .800 OPS will likely come in about 8th or 9th of 21 - which as I stated is slightly above average.

Fangraphs.com is a very useful site. Their stats DB is easily sortable. I'd suggest that.
 
Apart from everything Reverend pointed out, Betts' OPS is likely to be very OBP-heavy. So far in the minors he has a 13.6% BB% and the last two years it's 14.5%. So if he "only" has an .800 OPS it's likely to be something like .380/.420 which is a lot more valuable than the .330/.470 someone like Adam Jones might put up.
 
Also, he's stolen 81/93 bases in the minors, so that's another thing he does well. He's not likely to ever have the power of a Trout or McCutchen but he projects to the majors incredibly well.

 

[Bone Chips]

 
I'm having trouble understanding any of this...

• How is 2007 OPS data the most immediately available data?
• Why are you claiming that an .800 OPS CF is not very valuable when Ellsbury's .781 made him a zillion dollar player?
• Why are you claiming that an .800 OPS would come in at #7 among qualified CFs when it's currently #6? Or did you mean 2013 and not say so?
• If you wanted to account for heating up, why didn't you look at 2013 where .800 OPS would be #7? Or, if that is what you are talking about, why do you think #7 is MLB isn't so great?
• Why haven't you noted that only 21 CFs even qualify which actually says something?

 
.800 OPS in the AL with ++ fielding at CF is a very valuable player. Of course, none of that explains why you didn't just say what you just said rather than send your readers to go look at six year old irrelevant data.

I'm not going to get into an argument here.  My bad on the 2007 OPS data - thought it was sufficient to outline a general point and to be honest hadn't anticipated such a large drop-off in OPS since then.  You might want to check ESPN again though - an .800 OPS would come in at #7 out of 21, with guys like Fowler, Ellsbury, and Kemp right behind.  
 
And while we're at it, where is your citation about him having as a ++ fielder in center field?  Goes both ways, Rev.
 
My last comment on this as I'm dangerously close to inciting a riot - I love Mookie Betts as a propspect.  I understand the temptation to turn him into an outfielder and support it.  But bringing him up in 2014 is a very very risky proposition, especially given the ridiculous hype that surrounds the kid right now.  We have to look no further than our current center fielder to see the dangers of bringing up a prospect too soon.

 

[Rasputin]

We have to look no further than our current center fielder to see the dangers of bringing up a prospect too soon.

Sure, because everyone who doesn't make the adjustment to the bigs in a third of a season was brought up too soon.

Jesus, people, patience.

 

[Reverend]

I'm not going to get into an argument here.  My bad on the 2007 OPS data - thought it was sufficient to outline a general point and to be honest hadn't anticipated such a large drop-off in OPS since then.  You might want to check ESPN again though - an .800 OPS would come in at #7 out of 21, with guys like Fowler, Ellsbury, and Kemp right behind.  
 
And while we're at it, where is your citation about him having as a ++ fielder in center field?  Goes both ways, Rev.
 
My last comment on this as I'm dangerously close to inciting a riot - I love Mookie Betts as a propspect.  I understand the temptation to turn him into an outfielder and support it.  But bringing him up in 2014 is a very very risky proposition, especially given the ridiculous hype that surrounds the kid right now.  We have to look no further than our current center fielder to see the dangers of bringing up a prospect too soon.

 
Fair enough--it looks like ESPN updated game stats updated game 62 quicker than MLB.com did (fucking Adam Jones...). The "right behind" part would seem to underscore the point, though, seeing as how far back Ellsbury (.761) and Kemp (.737) are from the .800 point.
 
Probably also shouldn't have said ++ but I don't think they'll move him to CF unless he's good, and he looks like he has the skills in terms of jump and range, so it's just a matter of read which is probably the easiest of the skills to learn--I don't know that you can learn jump. He looks amazing at 2B.
 
The main point though is that an .800 OPS player, especially an OBP heavy one as Toe Nash points out, is really, really valuable. As you implicitly point out, I don't think fandom in general has fully recalibrated the offense numbers yet.

 

[rodderick]

Sure, because everyone who doesn't make the adjustment to the bigs in a third of a season was brought up too soon.

Jesus, people, patience.

 
Also, how does JBJ's struggles have any predictive value in this case? Can't we also point to Bogaerts and say "hey, here's a highly touted prospect who came up and immediately made great contributions with the bat"?

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Also, how does JBJ's struggles have any predictive value in this case? Can't we also point to Bogaerts and say "hey, here's a highly touted prospect who came up and immediately made great contributions with the bat"?

 
No, because that would deviate from the storyline

 

[Bone Chips]

Also, how does JBJ's struggles have any predictive value in this case? Can't we also point to Bogaerts and say "hey, here's a highly touted prospect who came up and immediately made great contributions with the bat"?

Minor League Plate Appearances
Bogaerts - 1,623
JBJ - 989
Betts - 1,129 (and just now learning a new position)

 

[Plympton91]

Sure, because everyone who doesn't make the adjustment to the bigs in a third of a season was brought up too soon.

Jesus, people, patience.

 
He's had far more than a third of a season to make the adjustment to the majors.  He found out what he needed to work on last April, and he got another chance to apply that last September.

 

[Rasputin]

 
He's had far more than a third of a season to make the adjustment to the majors.  He found out what he needed to work on last April, and he got another chance to apply that last September.

 
Yeah, you should probably take a gander at the JBJ thread where there is some actual research to demonstrate that JBJ has already made adjustments and the pitchers have adjusted back at him.
 
I'd say more, but, well, this is Mookie's thread and he can't pitch.

 

[keninten]

I don`t even see this as very complicated. The Sox are trying him in CF. What else can they do now?
 
They are going to monitor all phases of his game, skills, makeup, how he adjusts, how he deals with pressure, everything a front office needs to do. We can only guess and speculate, but with less info than they have. He may be a kid that excells under pressure or can`t handle it. What`s going on in his head is nothing we can do with any accurracy. The Sox organization may not be able to either, but will speculate as best they can. Their are 1000`s of possibilities in how he can go. What if he keeps OPSing at .800-.900 while at Pawtucket and the front office thinks he could handle a callup in August or even late July. If he has a fragile ego they wouldn`t consider it. Injuries could also dictate what may happen, enough and they may need a body. If they feel they aren`t going to make the playoffs this year they may want to get his feet wet a little earlier. 
 
All we can do is have patience.

 

[JGray38]

Minor League Plate Appearances
Bogaerts - 1,623
JBJ - 989
Betts - 1,129 (and just now learning a new position)

Bradley had just under 800 PAs in one of the best NCAA programs, and was a College World Series MVP. He played at a high level against good competition and got excellent coaching. The other two were drafted out of high school.

 

[BosRedSox5]

Guys mature at different rates, they have different obstacles to overcome in their career, they've built up different habits over the course of their lifetimes of playing ball. IMO it's totally useless to say "Well, this guy has had X number of at bats and should have figured it out by now."

Every situation is so incredibly different and varied. Does the amount of plate appearances he's had tell us anything especially meaningful? Near as I can tell this is the first real obstacle he's had. He was a star in college (stumbled a little in his last year) and pretty much breezed through the minors before hitting a wall in the show. This has happened to a lot of players. Maybe he figures it out, maybe he doesn't but the answer to that question has almost nothing to do with minor league and college plate appearances. 

 

[Drek717]

One side of me says "Rushing him along could harm his development!!" but the logical side of me can't find any evidence that would be the case. 

Honestly, if Betts is as good a baserunner/stealler as advertised and his plate discipline translates to the bigs he could be a very effective piece for us. The only spot though is the outfield and with Holt red hot this season he might have left field locked down for the forseeable future. If Bradley goes down for more seasoning maybe Mookie takes CF or if Vic needs more time off he plays RF? 

Anyway, I wonder about a possible logjam here. Unless Betts is going to be a big difference maker to us, there's no harm in leaving him to season in AAA and keep his clock unused. 

It can't be a logjam if Bradley can't hit.  Hell, it can't really be a logjam period when they need good OFs across the board.
 
As of right now I'm hoping for a late 2014 OF of Gomes/Holt/Nava splitting time in LF with Holt serving as the utility IF as well, Betts and Bradley sharing time in CF, and Bradley spelling Victorino in RF.  Then in 2015 they add a replacement RH bat for Gomes with Brentz or Hassan.  If a big time addition can be made in LF like Stanton do it, but otherwise that isn't a bad plan going forward.  Betts and Bradley share CF while Bradley spells Victorino.  If Bradley's bat comes alive and Betts is doing well in CF then Bradley owns RF from 2016 going forward.

 

[JGray38]

Maybe he figures it out, maybe he doesn't but the answer to that question has almost nothing to do with minor league and college plate appearances. 

Agreed. Just pointing out that if you're going to make the PA argument, make the right argument. Leaving out his college career is misleading.

 

[Saints Rest]

My guess is that we will see no changes to the OF roster until Victorino is back (hopefully around 6/20).  That will precipitate move #1 (likely a DFA of either Nava or Sizemore).  
 
Then we sit tight until either an injury or the ASB.  If Mookie is still doing well in AAA, we will see him post-ASB to replace either the injured player or whoever is doing worse of JBJ, or Nava/Sizemore.  Thus by end of July, we are conceivably looking at an OF of Gomes, Victorino, Betts, Holt and the best one of JBJ/Sizemore/Nava.  Ceteris paribus of the latter three, I imagine it woudl be Sizemore holding a spot in Boston while Nava and JBJ are back in Pawtucket.

 

[Bone Chips]

Agreed. Just pointing out that if you're going to make the PA argument, make the right argument. Leaving out his college career is misleading.

Not sure it's misleading in that I clearly stated "Minor League Plate Appearances", but I get your drift.  JBJ played 3 years of college ball in the SEC and had 786 plate appearances.  Is that comparable to Minor League experience?  Good question.  I was tempted to say yes right away until I looked deeper at all the baseball players in the SEC during the time period when JBJ played - 2009-2011.  Only 4 SEC players who played during those three years have made it to the Major Leagues by now:
 
D.J. LeMahieu - COL (had 1,669 plate appearances in the minors in addition to his college ball)
Matt Den Dekker - NYM (had 1,792 plate appearances in the minors in addition to his college ball)
Joshua Rutledge - COL (had 1,173 plate appearances in the minors in addition to his college ball)
JBJ - (had 989 plate appearances in the minors in addition to his college ball)
 
JBJ has played almost 100 games in the Majors and his Slugging % is .309.  Whether it's 20/20 hindsight or not, it's clear the guy was brought up too soon.  All I'm saying is we should probably be a little more patient with Betts - who currently only has 1,132 minor league plate appearances (no college ball) and only 285 plate appearances above A level.

 

[JimD]

My guess is that we will see no changes to the OF roster until Victorino is back (hopefully around 6/20).  That will precipitate move #1 (likely a DFA of either Nava or Sizemore).  
 
Then we sit tight until either an injury or the ASB.  If Mookie is still doing well in AAA, we will see him post-ASB to replace either the injured player or whoever is doing worse of JBJ, or Nava/Sizemore.  Thus by end of July, we are conceivably looking at an OF of Gomes, Victorino, Betts, Holt and the best one of JBJ/Sizemore/Nava.  Ceteris paribus of the latter three, I imagine it woudl be Sizemore holding a spot in Boston while Nava and JBJ are back in Pawtucket.

 
Depends where the team is in the standings.  Why start Mookie's service time clock ticking on a team going nowhere?