Could we be in for a Record Season?

Sep 13, 2006
690
An added bonus to the 15-2 start is that some MFY fans are literally losing their minds. There's this highly entertaining diatribe from NYYFans.com:

"There is absolutely no way that the Red Sox aren't cheating again. If anyone suggested it last season before they got caught, there would have been a cry heard round the world, a lot of if from Yankee fans who just "hate" when we accuse the Red Sox of things and "that's why everyone hates Yankee fans." Well they were doing it and got caught. And got a five-second slap on the wrist. I have no idea what those perennial cheats have done this time, but much like the "clear", it's apparently undetectable at this point. And we don't have a seasoned manager who has the time and expertise to pay attention to that stuff. Boone's learning managing on the job, and so that other stuff isn't even on his radar. Don't forget that it was Girardi who exposed them last season. No other manager had caught on to it.

Don't tell me that the same team who did virtually nothing to improve their team all of a sudden is full of Babe Ruths. They have beaten up on the best pitchers in the league. They know what's coming before it hits the plate. And their manager was once a member of their team, so he's well aware of their culture and so would have no problem with them finding a way to cheat. And as the hideous little injured creature (karma's a bitch) said last year when they got caught, "hey no big deal. We were stealing signs in junior high school." They absolutely worshipped at the throne of the King of Dominican milkshakes, the one who Pedroia said would always be one of his closest friends. Hell even the Boston sportscasters all opined that Ortiz was still taking steroids last season!

All I can do as a baseball fan is hope and pray that they get caught at whatever they're doing. But with MLB happily turning a blind eye to anything and everything, I don't have a lot of faith it's going to happen. Guess I'll just have to rely on karma.

For any astute fan with knowledge of baseball at Fenway - no, not Red Sox fans; I wouldn't expect them to acknowledge anything except supposed greatness, like the year the Red Sox broke the curse, with Ortiz and Manny batting back to back... - for any astute fan, keep watching. It would take Girardi unfortunately to figure this out since nobody else did last season. Actually since it was Pedroia who affectuated the cheating last year, here's a little conspiracy for you. Pedroia isn't injured, he's working things from the dugout. When the Red Sox have pulled far enough ahead and the division is theirs easily, he'll miraculously recover and make it back to the lineup."
 

Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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Obviously anything can happen, but there isn't a series there besides the Yanks where I see a team that the Sox may have an issue with in taking that series.
They say any given Sunday in football, maybe any given series in baseball. Last year in May we came into Oakland, who’s up next after LAAofAna. Oakland handed us three straight losses, one a Sale start. You never know.
 

mauidano

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Aug 21, 2006
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They say any given Sunday in football, maybe any given series in baseball. Last year in May we came into Oakland, who’s up next after LAAofAna. Oakland handed us three straight losses, one a Sale start. You never know.
So true. While it's been fun watching the Sox play out of their minds, over the course of a long season there is always some regression. They won't win them all. Hopefully can keep winning series. That's always the best you hope for.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
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Actually since it was Pedroia who affectuated the cheating last year, here's a little conspiracy for you. Pedroia isn't injured, he's working things from the dugout. When the Red Sox have pulled far enough ahead and the division is theirs easily, he'll miraculously recover and make it back to the lineup."
Pedey's amazing - he can even 'work things' when the team is in California and he's in Fort Myers!
 

Al Zarilla

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An added bonus to the 15-2 start is that some MFY fans are literally losing their minds. There's this highly entertaining diatribe from NYYFans.com:

"There is absolutely no way that the Red Sox aren't cheating again. If anyone suggested it last season before they got caught, there would have been a cry heard round the world, a lot of if from Yankee fans who just "hate" when we accuse the Red Sox of things and "that's why everyone hates Yankee fans." Well they were doing it and got caught. And got a five-second slap on the wrist. I have no idea what those perennial cheats have done this time, but much like the "clear", it's apparently undetectable at this point. And we don't have a seasoned manager who has the time and expertise to pay attention to that stuff. Boone's learning managing on the job, and so that other stuff isn't even on his radar. Don't forget that it was Girardi who exposed them last season. No other manager had caught on to it.

Don't tell me that the same team who did virtually nothing to improve their team all of a sudden is full of Babe Ruths. They have beaten up on the best pitchers in the league. They know what's coming before it hits the plate. And their manager was once a member of their team, so he's well aware of their culture and so would have no problem with them finding a way to cheat. And as the hideous little injured creature (karma's a bitch) said last year when they got caught, "hey no big deal. We were stealing signs in junior high school." They absolutely worshipped at the throne of the King of Dominican milkshakes, the one who Pedroia said would always be one of his closest friends. Hell even the Boston sportscasters all opined that Ortiz was still taking steroids last season!

All I can do as a baseball fan is hope and pray that they get caught at whatever they're doing. But with MLB happily turning a blind eye to anything and everything, I don't have a lot of faith it's going to happen. Guess I'll just have to rely on karma.

For any astute fan with knowledge of baseball at Fenway - no, not Red Sox fans; I wouldn't expect them to acknowledge anything except supposed greatness, like the year the Red Sox broke the curse, with Ortiz and Manny batting back to back... - for any astute fan, keep watching. It would take Girardi unfortunately to figure this out since nobody else did last season. Actually since it was Pedroia who affectuated the cheating last year, here's a little conspiracy for you. Pedroia isn't injured, he's working things from the dugout. When the Red Sox have pulled far enough ahead and the division is theirs easily, he'll miraculously recover and make it back to the lineup."
Whoa! That’s GangGreen.com worthy.
 

TFisNEXT

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The thing I remember most about the hot start in 2002 was that people kept saying stuff like "if they go .500 from here, they will still win 90-whatever games!"

And starting at 40-17, thats exactly what they did. I cringe whenever I hear that formulation
And that was despite outscoring their opponents by 86 runs the rest of the way.

I guess we can blame it on the Grady Little Effect.
 
Dec 28, 2015
43
When O'Brien was rhapsodizing about 14-2 the other night, I was thinking that it's better than 14-6 which is a .700 pace, and then I wondered how many .700 teams there have been since 1901. The answer is 10. And then I wondered how many had won their ultimate championship. The answer is six and that includes the Pirates of 1902, a year in which there was no World Series.

This is a great looking team particularly with that rotation of Sale, Price and Porcello. but the Red Sox team of which it reminds me the most is the 1978 crew, which played great ball for three months, and we know how that ended, especially when injuries kicked in..

So I'm keeping my hopes under control, but then again, in view of our recent trifecta, they are not as desperate as they were in 1978.
 
Sep 13, 2006
690
...the Red Sox team of which it reminds me the most is the 1978 crew, which played great ball for three months, and we know how that ended, especially when injuries kicked in..

So I'm keeping my hopes under control, but then again, in view of our recent trifecta, they are not as desperate as they were in 1978.
The '78 team lacked depth and Zimmer ran the regulars into the ground by never resting them: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/1978.shtml

Neither of those flaws should impact this year's team.
 

jon abbey

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They have by far the highest payroll in baseball, it's easy to buy your way into wins.

(Thank you, I've wanted to do that my whole life and now I have.)
 

NoXInNixon

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What is a nice thing to think about, is that we have a thread like this on the main page because the team is playing so well, we literally don't know what we have to criticize yet.
The starting pitchers are #1 in all of baseball in collective WAR.
The offense is #1 in all of baseball in collectie WAR.
The bullpen, I was surprised to find out, is #4 in all of baseball in collective WAR. (Although, part of that is because they have pitched relatively few innings due to the starters being so good. WAR/IP has them at #3)
The defense is #27 in all of baseball in collective WAR.

It's pretty clear what this team's primary weakness is.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The starting pitchers are #1 in all of baseball in collective WAR.
The offense is #1 in all of baseball in collectie WAR.
The bullpen, I was surprised to find out, is #4 in all of baseball in collective WAR. (Although, part of that is because they have pitched relatively few innings due to the starters being so good. WAR/IP has them at #3)
The defense is #27 in all of baseball in collective WAR.

It's pretty clear what this team's primary weakness is.
The shortcoming of defensive metrics in a small sample size?
 

Rasputin

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If the Sox get to 99 wins and lose their first shot at 100, I call dibs on the next one.

(I'm almost serious.)
 

BuellMiller

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Mar 25, 2015
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They have by far the highest payroll in baseball, it's easy to buy your way into wins.

(Thank you, I've wanted to do that my whole life and now I have.)
Yes, well-played...that NYYFans.com posting should really take notice on how to properly and efficiently troll...
 

uncannymanny

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Jan 12, 2007
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They have by far the highest payroll in baseball, it's easy to buy your way into wins.

(Thank you, I've wanted to do that my whole life and now I have.)


I posted in the #sports Slack channel of my NYC-based company today:

“Congratulations to the NY Yankees on their day as a winning ballclub!”

Followed by a similar parenthetical wink about getting my shots in while I could.
 

NoXInNixon

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The shortcoming of defensive metrics in a small sample size?
The eyeball test also tells me their infield defense isn't great. Maybe it will improve when Pedroia comes back, but maybe age and injuries will hurt his defense. Devers is a work in progress at 3B at best. Moreland is a fine defensive 1B, but how many innings is he going to play there?

The outfield is one of the best in baseball again. The way they hit, I can live with a shaky infield defense. If that's their biggest weakness, they're the best team in baseball.
 

Boggs26

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The eyeball test also tells me their infield defense isn't great. Maybe it will improve when Pedroia comes back, but maybe age and injuries will hurt his defense. Devers is a work in progress at 3B at best. Moreland is a fine defensive 1B, but how many innings is he going to play there?

The outfield is one of the best in baseball again. The way they hit, I can live with a shaky infield defense. If that's their biggest weakness, they're the best team in baseball.
So their weakness is that the 2nd and 3rd string middle infielders aren't great? Sign me up
 

glasspusher

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They say any given Sunday in football, maybe any given series in baseball. Last year in May we came into Oakland, who’s up next after LAAofAna. Oakland handed us three straight losses, one a Sale start. You never know.
Yeah, that Sale game in Oakland last year was fun at least. JBJ hauling in a shot just over the CF wall with 2 out in the 9th to send it to extras. So non-chalant about it I thought it was gone at first. Guess I'll be going to Saturday night's game.
 

The Gray Eagle

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They have by far the highest payroll in baseball, it's easy to buy your way into wins.

(Thank you, I've wanted to do that my whole life and now I have.)
Typical loser talk from a fanbase whose team has a third of the number of RINGS we have this century. They're just jealous of us because of all our RINGS and because their cheapskate ownership is content with mediocrity and won't go the extra mile for the fans to try to WIN.

No wonder they haven't won a championship this decade.

20-09! 20-09! 20-09! 20-09!
 

edoug

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Jul 15, 2005
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Typical loser talk from a fanbase whose team has a third of the number of RINGS we have this century. They're just jealous of us because of all our RINGS and because their cheapskate ownership is content with mediocrity and won't go the extra mile for the fans to try to WIN.

No wonder they haven't won a championship this decade.

20-09! 20-09! 20-09! 20-09!
Awesome
 

BroodsSexton

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Typical loser talk from a fanbase whose team has a third of the number of RINGS we have this century. They're just jealous of us because of all our RINGS and because their cheapskate ownership is content with mediocrity and won't go the extra mile for the fans to try to WIN.

No wonder they haven't won a championship this decade.

20-09! 20-09! 20-09! 20-09!


Still gets me. Every time I see it.
 

Reverend

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The eyeball test also tells me their infield defense isn't great. Maybe it will improve when Pedroia comes back, but maybe age and injuries will hurt his defense. Devers is a work in progress at 3B at best. Moreland is a fine defensive 1B, but how many innings is he going to play there?

The outfield is one of the best in baseball again. The way they hit, I can live with a shaky infield defense. If that's their biggest weakness, they're the best team in baseball.
This is fair. By the same token, that's a large part of why I wouldn't use defensive WAR to make the assessment though.

I mean, by FanGraphs, the Red Sox have negative defensive value for their outfielders. But I don't believe for a moment that the Red Sox analyze their outfield just in terms of the individuals and calling it the sum of the parts.
 

acf69

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Apr 14, 2006
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To me, the key outcome of the first three weeks is that we can see what the potential of the team is, and that last season may have been a freak aberration. Given that we still won the division this bodes well for this year. Our real sustainable level is probably between last season and the last three weeks. Happy time.
 

samuelLsamson

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Apr 27, 2006
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The eyeball test also tells me their infield defense isn't great. Maybe it will improve when Pedroia comes back, but maybe age and injuries will hurt his defense. Devers is a work in progress at 3B at best. Moreland is a fine defensive 1B, but how many innings is he going to play there?
Once Pedroia is back, the big concern then switches to whether Eduardo Nunez is a reliable and rangy affectuator. I have my doubts.
 
This is fair. By the same token, that's a large part of why I wouldn't use defensive WAR to make the assessment though.

I mean, by FanGraphs, the Red Sox have negative defensive value for their outfielders. But I don't believe for a moment that the Red Sox analyze their outfield just in terms of the individuals and calling it the sum of the parts.
FWIW, Fangraphs defensive values are one of the few stats that don't update nightly (or at least they haven't in previous years). I'm not sure how frequently they update, or when the last update was, but the numbers they're currently displaying could be a week or more out of date.
 

sheamonu

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No one affectuates things like Pedroia.
He is the king of affectuatation. Seriously - schadenfreude at the impact this is having on the Yankee fans is about the only thing to read in to the hot start - if we had been 6 games over .500 and then went on a 15-2 stretch in mid-July it would simply have been seen as a great time to get hot, not as history in the making. To this point we've just had our hot stretch early. It's great to wake up every morning and watch the team close out another game on the west coast, but I lived through the first half of 1978. Will never get too excited about a hot start again. I prefer hot finishes.
 

Flunky

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Lost in all this is Toronto is 12-6. Are they musing about 100 wins over at the Blue Jays Milkbag?
 

Sale4CY

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Lol I love how people keep bringing up 1978 as a reason to not get excited about this team’s start. Screw that, we should be celebrating this.

Also, if history is so important to remember, the 2007 team got off to a hot start (something like 36-15) and they went on to lead wire to wire and won the World Series.
 

shaggydog2000

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This is fair. By the same token, that's a large part of why I wouldn't use defensive WAR to make the assessment though.

I mean, by FanGraphs, the Red Sox have negative defensive value for their outfielders. But I don't believe for a moment that the Red Sox analyze their outfield just in terms of the individuals and calling it the sum of the parts.
Defensive WAR in a small sample size is good at saying what has happened, but it's not very predictive until you have a good sample size. I would think combining things on the team level helps a fair bit, but you'd still need a half season or so of team stats to say you know what a team is really like defensively.
 

jaytftwofive

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2007 we got off to a phenomenal start, not quite like this, but we at one point had a 14 game lead over the Yankees. And we were pissing down our leg the final week trying to hold them off. Little bit of perspective.
14 was 1978(shudder!!!) In 07 the biggest lead they had was on July 5th. 53-31 and 11 1/2 games ahead of the Yanks and 12 ahead of the Jays. I think the Yanks did cut it to 2 in mid to late September but of course we hung on. And everybody on ESPN and others all picked the Yanks to win the AL pennant because they were hot, lol. I think Kruk was the only one who picked the Sox.
 

21st Century Sox

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I’m old enough to remember 40 years ago, so even if we’re having this same discussion in July, it’s way too early.
Me too. Seems like the crazy outlier though. I think this team is phenomenal if health prevails. If Pom is healthy and pitches well, the rotation is off the charts. There are hot streaks, and there are streaks like this. Streaks like this are obviously extremely rare. Even though it is third week of April.....whenever you are in a situation with a good team and do the old "If they play .500 ball the rest of the way" and that results in taking the division, yeah, time to be happy. April games count like every other game, thus far this team is beyond special. Could care less that it is early.
 
Sep 13, 2006
690
Once Pedroia is back, the big concern then switches to whether Eduardo Nunez is a reliable and rangy affectuator. I have my doubts.
Could Pedey have (temporarily) passed the "King of Affectuator's" crown to Nunez during his FLA rehab? Or perhaps to Swihart (which might explain his lack of playing time)?

When informed that Pedey is in FL, the same poster at NYYFans.com replied: "You know for sure he's in Florida? I guess then he passed along his secrets to someone else."
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Lol I love how people keep bringing up 1978 as a reason to not get excited about this team’s start. Screw that, we should be celebrating this.
No one is saying that we shouldn't get excited about the start the team is on. People are only cautioning against projecting the start out and suggesting the 100-win plateau and/or record breaking win totals are all but assured based on the first three weeks. It is possible to be ecstatic about the start and not immediately start talking 100 wins and World Series titles.
 

Saints Rest

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14 was 1978(shudder!!!) In 07 the biggest lead they had was on July 5th. 53-31 and 11 1/2 games ahead of the Yanks and 12 ahead of the Jays. I think the Yanks did cut it to 2 in mid to late September but of course we hung on. And everybody on ESPN and others all picked the Yanks to win the AL pennant because they were hot, lol. I think Kruk was the only one who picked the Sox.
I lived thru 1978, but my more recent nightmare was 2011. That year was a 9-game lead in September. But even worse, was all the statistical statements meant to make people feel better as the team was collapsing, but that only proved that 99% chance of one thing happening still means that there is a 1% chance of that thing NOT happening.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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After the Joe Kelly game 1 debacle, I half-wrote a post entitled "The Red Sox Are Going To Win 100 Games This Year" meant to make the point that this team is incredibly good and would probably win 100 games in spite of the game 1 loss.

Now I wish I had hit post on that.

I thought this team was crazy good before the season started and going 16-2 in the first 18 games has not changed my opinion on that.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Another cautionary precedent: this team is off to the best start in MLB since the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers (16-1). That team ended up 91-71 and in 3rd place.

On the other hand: that team had basically two good players in Yount and Molitor (both in their 30s by then) plus a boatload o' scrubs — Rob Deer, Dale Sveum, Glenn Braggs, BJ Surhoff, Ernie Riles, Juan Castillo, Greg Brock, with old man Cecil Cooper at DH. And their starters were the immortal Teddy Higuera, Bill Wegman, Juan Nieves, Len Barker, and Chris Bosio.

So ... to heck to with that precedent. #144wins.
 

Rasputin

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No one is saying that we shouldn't get excited about the start the team is on. People are only cautioning against projecting the start out and suggesting the 100-win plateau and/or record breaking win totals are all but assured based on the first three weeks. It is possible to be ecstatic about the start and not immediately start talking 100 wins and World Series titles.
Nobody is saying anything is assured.