Covid and MLB

DeadlySplitter

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MLB has to be anticipating more positive tests over the next couple days from the Phillies, right? are they just going to squeeze every regular season game they can for TV money, even with multiple teams going down?
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Based on what’s happened so far, I think it’s going to take a lot for Manfred to actually shut this whole season down. I would guess at least four or five teams need to be at Marlins-level outbreak before he starts thinking about it, maybe not even then.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Based on what’s happened so far, I think it’s going to take a lot for Manfred to actually shut this whole season down. I would guess at least four or five teams need to be at Marlins-level outbreak before he starts thinking about it, maybe not even then.
Baseball is so terrible at marketing.

Convert the season into a survivor style competition and announce the test results each day at a set time. Teams with positive tests are eliminated. I mean, they are already kind of doing this without formalizing it.
 

OurF'ingCity

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It is pretty amazing (though sadly not unexpected at this point) that an organization with the resources of MLB appears to have no understanding of basic tenets of epidemiology that have been widely covered and discussed in the press for many months now.
 

Awesome Fossum

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So my understanding is that the current plan is for both the Nationals and Blue Jays -- the scheduled opponents for the Marlins and Phillies -- is to stay in DC over the weekend and not play.

They don't have any scheduled games against one another left, but why not play a series anyway? Surely swapping a series with the Marlins and Phillies isn't any less legitimate than 7-inning doubleheaders. More importantly, seems like you should play the games you can while you can.
 

canderson

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So the Phillies are going to have to make up 6 games within a 60 game schedule? That's like the equivalent of having three consecutive weeks rained out during a normal season.
 

snowmanny

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A couple of days?

LOL when my daughter got tested on a Monday, and had a positive result come back on Thursday, DPH told me I had to stay on my property and out of work at the hospital 14 days from Thursday and a negative test at any point would not speed up my return.

Now it’s a couple of days and a test? OK.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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7 inning games are not “baseball”
Sure they are. Happens in the minors all the time. Youth and amateur baseball too. Maybe the phrase you're looking for is they're not "MLB baseball". Of course, every year there are official games shortened to 5, 6, 7 innings due to weather. How is a pair of 7 inning games in a double header any different?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Sure they are. Happens in the minors all the time. Youth and amateur baseball too. Maybe the phrase you're looking for is they're not "MLB baseball". Of course, every year there are official games shortened to 5, 6, 7 innings due to weather. How is a pair of 7 inning games in a double header any different?
And tee ball is ‘baseball’ too. It’s a joke. It’s not even spring training level legit.
 

cornwalls@6

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I think the ship sailed on this being any kind of a legit season the minute 60 games was announced. Watching some facsimile of MLB, strictly for distraction and entertainment, without the usual urgency regarding results, standings, etc. is the best they can offer, for as long as that is possible. There was never any way a "championship" from this year was going to be credible. So, 7 inning games, and whatever else, doesn't really bother me. The sounds(even if fake), and the sight of baseball has been nice for a few days. I highly doubt it has much longer to go, but I'll enjoy it while it's here.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I think the ship sailed on this being any kind of a legit season the minute 60 games was announced. Watching some facsimile of MLB, strictly for distraction and entertainment, without the usual urgency regarding results, standings, etc. is the best they can offer, for as long as that is possible. There was never any way a "championship" from this year was going to be credible. So, 7 inning games, and whatever else, doesn't really bother me. The sounds(even if fake), and the sight of baseball has been nice for a few days. I highly doubt it has much longer to go, but I'll enjoy it while it's here.
That’s quite a rational take, it’s just not one that was shared by a good chunk of the community here. We got a lot of attempts to compare it to strike shortened season, seasons that were during world wars or other pandemics but none of them were as small as 60 games.
 

jon abbey

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To me 2020 is the first legitimate baseball season in history, competing under these tough circumstances is the real essence of the game. (No, I am not being serious)

PP, we get it, you think MLB this year is a joke and maybe you're right. I don't get the rush to judgment, as I just wrote in the Yankee thread, there will be plenty of time to judge what happened after it actually happens (or doesn't happen).
 

cornwalls@6

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That’s quite a rational take, it’s just not one that was shared by a good chunk of the community here. We got a lot of attempts to compare it to strike shortened season, seasons that were during world wars or other pandemics but none of them were as small as 60 games.
Honestly, 81 games felt like the floor for something like a real season to me. Totally arbitrary, I know, but getting at least a half season in was needed to take this too seriously, IMO.
 

jon abbey

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Honestly, 81 games felt like the floor for something like a real season to me. Totally arbitrary, I know, but getting at least a half season in was needed to take this too seriously, IMO.
Eno Sarris wrote a piece in June or July, before they settled on 60 games, that mathematically determined that 60 games was a big tipping point to determine the best team. I can find and link it again if you want, but it was behind The Athletic's paywall.
 

cornwalls@6

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Eno Sarris wrote a piece in June or July, before they settled on 60 games, that mathematically determined that 60 games was a big tipping point to determine the best team. I can find and link it again if you want, but it was behind The Athletic's paywall.
Not an Athletic subscriber unfortunately, but I appreciate the offer. And I've no doubt there's a legit analytical case for that argument. 81 was just a feel thing for me, and my own intensity of interest.
 

jon abbey

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I will pull the crucial chart, interesting that it looks like there is not a huge difference between 60 and 80 games.

 

cornwalls@6

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And just to be clear, that's not to diminish whoever does win it, if it gets that far. But I've had several conversations with fellow sox fans/friends, and we all viewed the hypothetical of winning it this year it as unique, fun, kind of weird thing, but none of us would remotely include with it with '04, '07, '13, or '18.
 

jon abbey

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Agree that that is surprising, but I'd also add that a 60 game sample when the teams know they are playing 162 is at least a notch or two different from 60 games when the teams know they are only playing 60 (hopefully), and the latter 60 should be taken at least a bit more seriously. We are talking about a sport that judges who is ultimately better based on seven game series every year, no one would compare a seven game series in October to a seven game stretch in May.
 

Mooch

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Heyman reporting that tonight's Brewers/Cardinals game is postponed due to a positive COVID test.
 

jon abbey

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That means 2 of the 3 mega-divisions now have major schedule disruptions, a big blow to MLB actually making it through this. Heyman is now reporting multiple positives on St. Louis is what caused it.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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St Louis was just in Minnesota. I’m guessing all the Twins players and coaches now need to be tested immediately and the visiting clubhouse cleaned before the Indians game tonight.
 
The sounds(even if fake), and the sight of baseball has been nice for a few days. I highly doubt it has much longer to go, but I'll enjoy it while it's here.
I've seen this sentiment expressed many times over the last few days, and I'm wondering who people think will actually cancel the season. The players want to play and earn their salaries. The owners and their ineffective commissioner want to get to the playoffs and collect their postseason money. The federal government wants people to think life can carry on as normal and that the pandemic isn't a big deal. Individual state governments may raise objections, but the would be under significant pressure not to ruin the whole season for everyone on account of one or two teams in their state. So I really think we're in this for the long haul now, even if it means we end up with some teams playing 20-30 more games than others within an already shortened season.
 

snowmanny

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I agree with CP: you don’t start the season unless you intend to finish it. I have to think they anticipated positives and cancellations. I suppose there’s a point at which you quit but we aren’t close to there yet.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I agree with CP: you don’t start the season unless you intend to finish it. I have to think they anticipated positives and cancellations. I suppose there’s a point at which you quit but we aren’t close to there yet.
I think this is right. They aren't likely to pull the plug until they absolutely have to, whenever that is.
 

donutogre

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CP does have a good point. I think a bunch of us have assumed that the MLB will run into serious scheduling problems trying to make up all the games that are getting postponed. But why should we assume that's the case? The season is already a weird sideshow, who gives a crap if some teams play 50 games, some play 55, some even play 45... if it's a team in playoff contention, they'll figure out how much they need to make up to make things work.
 

Rovin Romine

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CP does have a good point. I think a bunch of us have assumed that the MLB will run into serious scheduling problems trying to make up all the games that are getting postponed. But why should we assume that's the case? The season is already a weird sideshow, who gives a crap if some teams play 50 games, some play 55, some even play 45... if it's a team in playoff contention, they'll figure out how much they need to make up to make things work.
The main problem seems to be the underlying idea that to qualify for the post season, one ought to have beat out other teams through a mostly balanced competitive slate. Every year there's some kind of unbalancing randomness, especially with inter-league play. Here, it depends on just how unbalanced things become before questions of fundamental fairness and the integrity of the game are raised.
 

snowmanny

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Well in the game thread I quoted the MLB statement on tiebreakers. It reads-

All ties will be resolved mathematically. No additional games will be played to break any ties. With an expanded postseason field, there is less incentive to play additional games, and this method allows for an expedited schedule that doesn’t push the World Series into November.


My reading of that is that if you finish tied for eighth and miss the playoffs, guess what..you didn’t play that great anyway and you are shit out of luck. I think that also applies if you go 32-28 and are beaten out by a team that goes 24-20.

Ed/maths.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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They are postponing a game for 1 positive test? If that is the case, they need a new plan - not just for this year, but 2021 and perhaps beyond.
 

DJnVa

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CP does have a good point. I think a bunch of us have assumed that the MLB will run into serious scheduling problems trying to make up all the games that are getting postponed. But why should we assume that's the case? The season is already a weird sideshow, who gives a crap if some teams play 50 games, some play 55, some even play 45... if it's a team in playoff contention, they'll figure out how much they need to make up to make things work.
It's possible this was expected all along. Schedule 60 with assumption that some would get postponed (with no realistic option to make them up) and hope we get to 50 for everyone.
 

Ale Xander

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Heyman reporting that tonight's Brewers/Cardinals game is postponed due to a positive COVID test.
If they're postponing for a single positive (not sure this a single or actually a few), this season has no chance.

Edit: Beaten by NJ
 

DJnVa

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They are postponing a game for 1 positive test? If that is the case, they need a new plan - not just for this year, but 2021 and perhaps beyond.
Yeah---I thought the plan was that if there was a positive that person would get quarantined. Did they really not anticipate that if Player A tests positive that he was likely around other folks before?
 

OurF'ingCity

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I've seen this sentiment expressed many times over the last few days, and I'm wondering who people think will actually cancel the season. The players want to play and earn their salaries. The owners and their ineffective commissioner want to get to the playoffs and collect their postseason money. The federal government wants people to think life can carry on as normal and that the pandemic isn't a big deal. Individual state governments may raise objections, but the would be under significant pressure not to ruin the whole season for everyone on account of one or two teams in their state. So I really think we're in this for the long haul now, even if it means we end up with some teams playing 20-30 more games than others within an already shortened season.
At this point, I agree they are going to try to muddle through the season unless the situation gets much worse - and by that I mean widespread outbreaks on multiple teams in multiple divisions that effectively require them to cancel their seasons (maybe we are already there with the Marlins - not entirely clear).

But the real question in my mind is what happens if this happens in the playoffs (not an outlandish proposition given that more than half of the teams will make the playoffs and that it will be in October when there's a decent chance the virus will be rebounding even more than it already is due to more people being indoors). It's one thing to say "we'll seed playoffs based on winning percentage" or "just play a lot of 7-inning doubleheaders" in the regular season, but in the playoffs you can't really say "ok let's just make this a 5-game series instead of a 7-game series" or push back an entire series by a week, or whatever.
 

Rwillh11

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They are postponing a game for 1 positive test? If that is the case, they need a new plan - not just for this year, but 2021 and perhaps beyond.
Looks like its multiple (possibly 2?) players, which makes more sense.
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1289196003086733313?s=20

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1289209213835554816



Wish we had a sense of the false positive and false negative rates, so we could get a handle on p(virus | positive test).
 

Melrose Diner

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If they're postponing for a single positive (not sure this a single or actually a few), this season has no chance.

Edit: Beaten by NJ
I agree with this. I’ve never really understood the immediate rush to say “ITS DOOMED!” in a lot of instances (not just baseball) just because there are so many unknowns. But yeah, if one positive is all it takes then the sand is basically on the bottom of the hourglass
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Still, even with 2 positive tests, they cannot postpone games. That essentially means that for the next several years, or indefinitely, they will be constantly canceling games. As @BaseballJones mentioned above, even with a vaccine (which we don't have) it is not going to go away.
 

Bergs

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Red(s)HawksFan

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Still, even with 2 positive tests, they cannot postpone games. That essentially means that for the next several years, or indefinitely, they will be constantly canceling games. As @BaseballJones mentioned above, even with a vaccine (which we don't have) it is not going to go away.
Of course they can postpone games. Five days ago a team played a game despite having three positive tests and it turns out they have 17 (and counting) players plus coaches who have tested positive. And their opponent in that game has been quarantined all week in case they were infected (so far two staffers have tested positive).

Perhaps the bottom line here is THEY SHOULDN'T BE FUCKING PLAYING AT ALL.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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Of course they can postpone games. Five days ago a team played a game despite having three positive tests and it turns out they have 17 (and counting) players plus coaches who have tested positive. And their opponent in that game has been quarantined all week in case they were infected (so far two staffers have tested positive).

Perhaps the bottom line here is THEY SHOULDN'T BE FUCKING PLAYING AT ALL.
So, cancel baseball forever then? Because 2 players testing positive will be a thing next year, and beyond. If that is their plan (postpone for 1 or 2 positives), they will never be able to play a complete season moving forward.
 

Rwillh11

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Fasle negatives range from 100% on day 1 to ~70% on day 4. (Pro tip: that is not good)

https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/journal-scans/2020/05/18/13/42/variation-in-false-negative-rate-of-reverse
From the abstract it looks like it bottoms out at ~20% after 8 days. If there haven't been improvements since that study, suggests that 2 negative tests in a row is probably not enough. Having trouble finding anything on false positive rate/specificity and the data that's out there does seem to be a bit sketchy + its a bit early to be confident in these things (at least from the perspective of being a data driven field that reacts to real world events, although not medical related, I tend to have some skepticism of the first few studies that come out on a big new event, until it replicates a bunch).

Still, even with 2 positive tests, they cannot postpone games. That essentially means that for the next several years, or indefinitely, they will be constantly canceling games. As @BaseballJones mentioned above, even with a vaccine (which we don't have) it is not going to go away.
The above is why they have to shut it down with 2 positives for now. Pretty good chance that 1 - they have some pre-symptomatic players who will test positive going forward (as with the Marlins, who went from 4 to 18 pretty quick) and 2. If the study posted is more or less accurate, pretty solid chance that there is at least one false negative on the team. They need to do everything they can to stop this from turning into a Marlins situation (may already be too late, though) and also playing through it and having someone on another team catch it would accelerate shutting the whole season down.