If you do contact tracing, you find out who else was exposed. When you know who’s exposed and you test them, you get corona cases. Aka, it’s sickening.What the hell is he trying to say?
If you do contact tracing, you find out who else was exposed. When you know who’s exposed and you test them, you get corona cases. Aka, it’s sickening.What the hell is he trying to say?
Thank you for this post.From Nate Silver, generally mirroring my thoughts as well (bolded tweets are his).
--The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks
-- Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
-- But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
-- That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.
Baseball is unfortunately trying to squeeze in an abbreviated schedule at a time with a ridiculously high US infection density. It remains to be seen if they can salvage anything at all, but the odds are stacked against them.
With this much COVID everywhere, a bubble might be the only way to pull it off. A month or two from now with the NFL, maybe the answer will be different. Maybe.
I don't want to be too negative, because I agree with the overall point, but - the thing is, MLB should be able to do massively better than the national average. That 2% average number includes a ton of people who are at way higher risk due to their living situation (prisons, nursing homes) or work (meat-packing plants, hospitals, grocery stores, restaurants), and that's not getting into the 30% of the country that thinks wearing masks is anti-freedom. If their infection rate is as high as the national average, they're doing something very wrong.From Nate Silver, generally mirroring my thoughts as well (bolded tweets are his).
--The math for baseball is fairly brutal. Right now (per @youyanggu) an estimated 2% of the US population has an active COVID-19 infection. With an average traveling party of 40 people (e.g. 30 players, 10 coaches/staff) it's going to be pretty hard to avoid outbreaks
-- Note that you *can't* assume that the chances off all 40 players/coaches having COVID-19 are independent, since they're all hanging out in groups, have similar exposures, etc.
-- But suppose each team consists of 8 groups of 5 people (e.g. infielders, starting pitchers) who hang out together, and given current transmission rates within the US, each group has a 2% chance of having at least one member with COVID-19.
-- That means, at any given time, that about 15% of teams (or 4 of the 30 MLB clubs) would have a COVID cluster somewhere in their midst. Obviously that's very back-of- the-envelope, but it seems to roughly match what we're seeing so far.
Baseball is unfortunately trying to squeeze in an abbreviated schedule at a time with a ridiculously high US infection density. It remains to be seen if they can salvage anything at all, but the odds are stacked against them.
With this much COVID everywhere, a bubble might be the only way to pull it off. A month or two from now with the NFL, maybe the answer will be different. Maybe.
I partially agree, playing in the MLB definitely shouldn't be "high risk", though there are some things pushing in the other direction. They are traveling, staying in hotels, congregating inside locker rooms/dugouts with others, etc.I don't want to be too negative, because I agree with the overall point, but - the thing is, MLB should be able to do massively better than the national average. That 2% average number includes a ton of people who are at way higher risk due to their living situation (prisons, nursing homes) or work (meat-packing plants, hospitals, grocery stores, restaurants), and that's not getting into the 30% of the country that thinks wearing masks is anti-freedom. If their infection rate is as high as the national average, they're doing something very wrong.
View: https://twitter.com/ctrent/status/1289946448667086849?s=21Reds put Joey Votto on IL ... without mentioning why
How many Twitter feeds do you follow?
I don’t even follow him. Rosenthal retweeted it.How many Twitter feeds do you follow?
So it’s the end of the 2020 season if its multiple players given Manfreds comments.here we go. Cardinals have multiple new positives.
View: https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1290007284286775296
You're just going to keep posting this every day until you're eventually right, huh?So it’s the end of the 2020 season if its multiple players.
That's the Trump Twitter strategyYou're just going to keep posting this every day until you're eventually right, huh?
No. If this is as bad as the Marlin, MLB can’t continue to stick their heads in the sand and continue like nothing has happenedYou're just going to keep posting this every day until you're eventually right, huh?
You funny.No. If this is as bad as the Marlin, MLB can’t continue to stick their heads in the sand and continue like nothing has happened
I saw one baseball reporter on twitter say that it meant one of the two tests (nasal and saliva) was positive and the other was negative. I will try to find the tweet.Does anyone know what "inconclusive test" means in this setting? Has anyone explained? I'm not aware of anything test other than binary yes/no answer.
If they are using the rapid antigen test, I've been told those are very specific but not sensitive (if it's positive, its legit. If it's negative, it could be wrong).
I just won a million dollars!You're just going to keep posting this every day until you're eventually right, huh?
Thanks. Generally speaking, I don't know of any tests that are not specific. I would assume most "inconclusive" tests are probably positive.I saw one baseball reporter on twitter say that it meant one of the two tests (nasal and saliva) was positive and the other was negative. I will try to find the tweet.
Edit: here it is:
"
The Cardinals inconclusive tests yesterday for those unclear, means an individual tested positive for nasal OR saliva, and then negative for the other. That’s why they were deemed “inconclusive” As @JeffPassan said the NEW positives are the key today. "
Can you post that comment?So it’s the end of the 2020 season if its multiple players given Manfreds comments.
Can you post that comment?
https://sports.yahoo.com/report-rob-manfred-warns-that-mlb-could-shut-down-by-monday-if-it-cant-contain-coronavirus-210743171.htmlShould another outbreak materialize, Manfred, who has the power to shut the season down, could move in that direction. Multiple players briefed on the call fear that season could be shut down as soon as Monday if positive tests jump or if players continue not to strictly abide by the league's protocols.
State and local governments have pressured baseball about players skirting the mandates outlined in the league's 113-page operations manual, sources told ESPN. Broadcasts that have shown players not wearing masks, high-fiving and spitting have left government officials wondering how seriously players are taking the protocols, sources said
I can’t speak to Bauer’s comments specifically, but I think it’s hard for us outsiders to know what the dynamic is in the various MLB clubhouses right now. It’s easy for us to say they should opt out, and maybe more will, but I wonder if there is pressure on some players to stick around as long as the games are happening. The biggest names to drop out so far are probably Price, Posey, and Cain - the Cespedes thing seems like its own situation - are all guys who’ve probably signed their last contract, who (coincidentally or not) all have rings already, and all are veterans who don’t really have much else to prove. I don’t know, I could certainly be wrong about this, but I wonder if there are players who feel like they can’t just opt out for whatever reason, and they’re hoping someone else makes the decision for them.It’s going to take players opting out to cancel the season. Manfred works for the owners and the owners are taking no risk by playing the games. They’re not going to voluntarily give up money while players are willing to play.
Normally I’m on the players side but I don’t get what Trevor Bauer’s criticism of Manfred is. He is free to opt out at any time.
LOL in my world that’s called “positive.”I saw one baseball reporter on twitter say that it meant one of the two tests (nasal and saliva) was positive and the other was negative. I will try to find the tweet.
Edit: here it is:
"The Cardinals inconclusive tests yesterday for those unclear, means an individual tested positive for nasal OR saliva, and then negative for the other. That’s why they were deemed “inconclusive” As @JeffPassan said the NEW positives are the key today. "
Sure they can. They've been doing it for a week now. All the other games are proceeding apace. It doesn't make it a good idea, but there is nothing compelling Manfred to cancel the season right now, if we assume he lacks the decency, common sense, and willingness to forego income for his owners which would / should have had him reach the point of doing so already.No. If this is as bad as the Marlin, MLB can’t continue to stick their heads in the sand and continue like nothing has happened
Agreed - I hate defending MLB, but if anything, the fact that two teams have apparently had outbreaks that didn't spread either to umpires or the other teams they played is actually a positive for MLB's overall implementationI'm all for crapping on the MLB owners, and their lack of protocols is intolerable. However, reckless behavior by the players is the big issue. A bunch of Marlins did something objectyively high risk--that's on them.
Upon further consideration, I wonder if some players also might fear retribution from owners if they opt out, particularly those like Bauer who are nearing free agency.I can’t speak to Bauer’s comments specifically, but I think it’s hard for us outsiders to know what the dynamic is in the various MLB clubhouses right now. It’s easy for us to say they should opt out, and maybe more will, but I wonder if there is pressure on some players to stick around as long as the games are happening. The biggest names to drop out so far are probably Price, Posey, and Cain - the Cespedes thing seems like its own situation - are all guys who’ve probably signed their last contract, who (coincidentally or not) all have rings already, and all are veterans who don’t really have much else to prove. I don’t know, I could certainly be wrong about this, but I wonder if there are players who feel like they can’t just opt out for whatever reason, and they’re hoping someone else makes the decision for them.
Well actually, if you contact trace everyone who is infected (which I'm guessing they have), you might be able to narrow things down enough so that you have a pretty good idea of how it got there (which I'm guessing that they also have).Jeter still in denial about his club. Bill Shaikin has a three tweet thread quoting Jeter...
Marlins CEO Derek Jeter: "Some of our traveling party had a false sense of security."
"Our guys were not running all around team after our game in Atlanta." Jeter said a couple guys left team hotel, but not for bars or clubs.
"There is no way to identify how this got into our clubhouse," Jeter said.
View: https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/1290374232564592641
Uh huh, only a couple guys went out, but not to a bar or club. So I guess that means the best practice for road teams going forward is the Toronto summer camp method...no one leaves the hotel under penalty of fines and possible jail time.
This really has to put a dent into his reputation as a leaderJeter still in denial about his club. Bill Shaikin has a three tweet thread quoting Jeter...
Marlins CEO Derek Jeter: "Some of our traveling party had a false sense of security."
"Our guys were not running all around team after our game in Atlanta." Jeter said a couple guys left team hotel, but not for bars or clubs.
"There is no way to identify how this got into our clubhouse," Jeter said.
View: https://twitter.com/BillShaikin/status/1290374232564592641
Uh huh, only a couple guys went out, but not to a bar or club. So I guess that means the best practice for road teams going forward is the Toronto summer camp method...no one leaves the hotel under penalty of fines and possible jail time.
His eyes may be calm, but certainly not clear.This really has to put a dent into his reputation as a leader
I'd go with "Corona, to the champagne room", but hey, that's me.Can we rename this thread “Corona, to the main stage”?
Him saying we got caught with our pants down would be more appropriate if they broke protocol by going to a strip joint, no?Think he's trying to say we got caught with our pants down breaking protocol going to a casino, and are now outraged that people are actually looking into it (contact tracing)...